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The Blade of Caliban: Another look


FerociousBeast

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Analysis of Champion upgrade for Ravenwing Command Squad

 

On the pro side of the equation, the upgrade is very cheap. 5 points for a WS bump, character unit type, and an AP3 weapon. Additionally, one of the biggest drawbacks of the Blade of Caliban, that it makes the champion more vulnerable in challenges, is mitigated somewhat by the Ravenwing biker's T5. The Greenwing champ has a 41% chance to beat the proverbial Space Marine Sergeant w/ Power Sword, while the Ravenwing champ with T5 has a 48% chance to kill the same Sergeant (who has a 42% chance of killing the champ). This doesn't take into account any effect from an apothecary.

 

Sergeant's chance to beat RW champ:

1/2 x 1/3 x 1 = 1/6 = 17% (chance of wound w/ 1 attack)

1 - (1 - 0.17)^3 = 42% (chance of wound w/ 3 attacks)

 

RW champ's chance to beat Sergeant:

83% = chance of wounding Sergeant w/ 3 attacks (see previous post)

0.83 x 0.58 = 48% = chance of wounding Sergeant after Sergeant fails to wound champ

 

EDIT - And as Spaced Hulk points out below, the character upgrade is particularly valuable for a model wielding a Plasma Talon due to the potential to choose your target with Precision Shot. 5 points? Yes, please!

 

There are some significant cons, though. The first and most significant is that, with only a 3-man squad, and an important one at that, you don't want your RWCS anywhere near close combat. The Ravenwing wins games in the movement phase and the shooting phase, not traditionally the assault phase (though with Black Knights and hit and run, this may be changing). So if you're never going to be putting your RWCS into combat, then 5 points, no matter how cheap, are wasted on the champ upgrade.

 

However, realistically, your RWCS will get into combat sometimes, especially if you're running a lot of Black Knights and the Ravenwing company banner. Meanwhile, if you do get caught in CC by an HQ or winged MC or something, it could be very worthwhile to have the champion there to challenge and therefore protect the banner bearer, who--let's face it--is really the only reason you're ever going to take a RWCS instead of another Black Knights squadron. Champion gets killed by winged Daemon Prince, RWCS hit and runs away, banner bearer lives to wave his flag for another turn.

 

A more minor con is that the BoC replaces one of the unit's corvus hammers. But AP3 is almost always an improvement over rending, when fighting the vast majority of infantry, anyway. Of course, the I1 is even more of a problem for a 3-man squad than for the Greenwing Command Squad's 5 men, but if you're in a fight where you have to worry about losing all of the members in your RWCS, realistically one additional corvus hammer's ability to strike at initiative isn't often going to save you, especially when fighting models with high armor saves.

 

Summary

 

The champion upgrade in a RWCS is a better deal than the Greenwing's champ upgrade, and the Ravenwing champion is more likely to win challenges against typical MEQ sergeants. But the major downside is that you don't usually want your RWCS anywhere near close combat.

 

However, your RWCS WILL get into close combat sometimes, and when it does, the Ravenwing Champion's ability to limit the damage potential of an enemy character--combined with the Hit and Run rule--makes it much more likely that your banner bearer (the only important model in the unit) will survive.

 

Therefore, for that reason alone, I recommend spending the paltry 5 points to upgrade one Black Knight in a RWCS to the Ravenwing Champion. Think of it as an insurance policy for your banner bearer.

 

EDIT - And, as pointed out by Spaced Hulk, if that doesn't convince you, putting Precision Shot on a Plasma Talon is certainly worth 5 points! Maybe more.

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This is a very intersting thread and i want to thank all those who have beat each others brains in trying to hammer out the value in the dark angels champion upgrade. I think i have come to see the utilty in the dark angel champion and i have ferocious beast to thank for that. However a word to the wise, when we are talking about very slim percentage points here their is a difference between what probability tells us will happen and what statistics tells us will happen. Because while probability is nice, its relying on "math hammer," the underlying assumption of which is that outcomes tend to be equal to the ratios they express. Ergo, if I roll 6 2+ armor saves on a d6 i will fail only one, is math hammer vs. how many times must i make saving throws before i can tell tell that im only failing saving throws at a rate of 1/3 vs a rate of 1/6 (which by the way requires a sample size of 105 rolls, for a two tailed t-test, with a CI of 95% and a power of .8)

In the case above we could ask a question to try and establish how many dice throws would we need to roll in order to tell the difference between an event happening 42% of the time (enemy sargent kills champion) vs. an event happening 48% of the time (champion kills sargent). We can plug this in using the same formulae and parameters in our armor save example. This is just an example of how relying heavily on math hammer (while useful for consideration), can be problematic.

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Another plus point for the Ravenwing Champion is that he gains the Precision Strike/Shot ability. Pretty useful with a Plasma Talon and probably well worth the +5 points regardless of any negative aspects to the Blade of Caliban.

Now that is the very best reason to spend those 5 points on the RW Command Squad Champion.   Point and match, sir. Point and match. :D     

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Probability shows that there is a 75% chance that a Sergeant with three Power Sword attacks will strike a wound against another T4 Marine. The Champion will then get his 6+ Inv save and FNP if the Apothecary is still alive, which brings the killing blow chance down to just under 1/2. Statiscally, the Champion will get an almost guaranteed kill against the offending Sergeant.

 

So, in a challenge, I would round everything to a simple 1/2 chance of victory with the Champion. A Veteran Sergeant with a Power Weapon is very close in points to a Champion. I don't have my codex to hand, but I believe the Champion is actually cheaper. The Unwieldy weapon is good for it's point reduction when fighting against initiative commanders, allowing your IC to pour all of his wounds into the larger squad.

 

Also, the fluff shows that Company Champion is a lower rank to a Sergeant. All in all, the Caliban Blade isn't all that bad and I have not quarrels holding one in all of my Command Squads bar Terminators.

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@SpacedHulk - Very good point. I'll add that to my analysis with credit to you.

@Azrael Turnbull - The 75% figure isn't strictly accurate. You've multiplied 0.5 x 0.5 x 1, which is the probability of a single attack wounding, but then you multiplied it by 3 to get 0.75. That's not the probability of a wound, though, that's the average number of wounds the sergeant will deal in an assault phase.

@Polythemus - You made my brain hurt tongue.png

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Ok back to standard HQ squad.

 

Probability is fine, but wanted to check our "pointed stick of caliban" in almost real environment. Did 100 fights on equal rights, so:

- No one is assaulting

- fight vs standard SM sergeant with power sword as its the same point value as our "champion"

- both had 3 attacks (base plus additional ccw)

 

Here are results:

35 times "so called Champion won"

55 times Sergeant won

10 times was a draw

 

as a side note shield saved my "so called" 7 times.

 

I didn't count apothecary because he is external source of protection and if we include him then our "so called" is overpriced by far.

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Awesome thread guys, its actually caused me to include the champ in my RW cmd squad. There are a few reasons:

 

1. I run two other ICs with the unit so I want to maximize challenges, even sacrifice the champ to smash RnF with the ICs at times.

 

2. Precision shot with TL plasma- this hadnt occurred to me yet so thanks.

 

3. Damage output is simply greater than the corvus, if he survives.. However with double ICs to soak wounds I feel the champ becomes far more survivable. If not then hey, its 5 pts man.

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Well I have my basic command squad and I have made one of my veterans a champion. Sure he died many times, but when he killed a nasty Wolf Guard it was priceless. For the Lion! Still I agree that Unwieldy makes him squishy, but his job is to die defending the squad and if he kills the baddie for 15 points that is a bonus. Believe it or not the 6++ saved me once from a nasty power klaw. 

 

I have to concede that as a long term IG player sacrificing units becomes a second nature...

He shouldn't be called Champion then, maybe Victim is more appropriate.

Sacraficial Anode...

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@SpacedHulk - Very good point. I'll add that to my analysis with credit to you.

@Azrael Turnbull - The 75% figure isn't strictly accurate. You've multiplied 0.5 x 0.5 x 1, which is the probability of a single attack wounding, but then you multiplied it by 3 to get 0.75. That's not the probability of a wound, though, that's the average number of wounds the sergeant will deal in an assault phase.

@Polythemus - You made my brain hurt tongue.png

Hah, did I use percentage? That was a total mistake. x)

Yes, my entire post was meant to be based on averages, not probability. Regardless of the maths used, the contents of my post remains valid. ;)

I don't think the Champion is all that bad. Definitely not a metagame model, but he's not totally useless for points.

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