Next up is another warrior equipped with a Stalker pattern boltgun. Back in 2022 we had a discussion about the percentage of successor Chapters and their lineage. I was a fairly active participant in that discussion since it's something about which I am relatively interested, and I conducted my own analysis based on the data available to me. The final conclusion that I presented can be seen here. I gave two opinions, each depending upon (a) the number of Chapters prior to the Ultima Founding, and (b) the number of Chapters after the Ultima Founding based on 108 Ultima Founding Successors (which is a few higher than the official number, admittedly). Averaging the post-Ultima Founding numbers for each lineage gives us the following:

Blood Angels: 5.25%

Dark Angels: 3.91%

Imperial Fists: 10.78%

Iron Hands: 2.38%

Raven Guard: 3.57%

Salamanders: 1.53%

Space Wolves: 1.17%

Ultramarines: 61.63%

White Scars: 9.25%

Unknown (Special): 0.54%

So in a group of 100 Adeptus Astartes, if we assume that the distribution aligns with those percentages, we'll have about:

Blood Angels: 5

Dark Angels: 4

Imperial Fists: 10 or 11

Iron Hands: 2

Raven Guard: 5 or 6

Salamanders: 1 or 2

Space Wolves: 1

Ultramarines: 61 or 62

White Scars: 9

Unknown: 0 or 1

And any group of 10 Adeptus Astartes will have:

Ultramarines: 6

Imperial Fists: 1

White Scars: 1

And the remaining 2 would each come from a Chapter descended from one of the other Legions (different Legions) or Unknown.

Statistics only give probabilities, however, and actual outcomes might vary wildly. And you can add on to that the fact that I suspect that I need to go back and re-do my math on those charts (I'm confident that my math isn't that far off, though).

Anyhoo, it always struck me as ludicrous that, given what we know about the relative number of Chapters descended from each of the Legions (my numbers are mostly accurate in those estimates), Deathwatch squads will often be portrayed as having equal representation across Legion lineage (9 loyalist Legions), with the tenth member coming from either the Ultramarines or Imperial Fists Legions (the latter especially so they could get a Black Templar in addition to an Imperial Fist or Crimson Fist or whatever). That equal representation simply isn't likely.

So I'm applying these likelihoods to my kill team. In addition, I'm only using two official Chapters (in the first six members), and none can be from the 1st or 2nd Foundings. And since Veteran Brother Hywel Kaedor is from the Griffon Lords, an official Chapter, that leaves only one other member from an official Chapter. Veteran Brother Artol Kuron gets that slot. The shoulder pad I chose for that model is actually for the Novamarines, but that's a 2nd Founding Chapter so I ruled them out. Since the badge is close to that of the Sons of Medusa, that's what I opted for (forgive me for having a badge that's close, but not exactly right). And the Sons of Medusa are an Iron Hands Successor, taking one of those valuable non-Ultramarines/Imperial Fists/White Scars Successor slots.

Do you see those mold lines?  I really need to fix those.

Also, I made a rookie error when putting him together. In the past, my Space Marines with bolters used the separate bolters and the arms from the Tactical/Devastator kits. In those cases, I glued the arms on with the hands in roughly the right positions, dropping the prepared bolters into place to test them before I glued the bolters down. This was the first time that I used the integrated right arm/bolter bits, though, and gluing both arms on at the same time was proving to be a PITA (I really don't know why - maybe I was just being crotchety that night). I don't recall exactly what I did wrong, but I ended up getting the bolter a bit higher than I wanted, especially since this guy has one of the cool helmets (I think it came from the old Black Templars sprue). Anyways, not my finest hour. It's not terribad, but it's going to be a PITA to paint the helmet (at least the bolter is red, too).