Doombolt v. Bolt of Change

[siphon101]

Decided to do some math on Doombolt versus Bolt of Change for all you Tzeentchy psykers out there. This math is to decide which is better in which situations.

 

So first off, Doombolt gives 3 shots, Bolt of Change gives 1. Both the daemon prince and the sorcerer has BS 5, so those shots are landing on a 2+

 

Doombolt with its 3 shots will hit whatever it’s shooting at an average of 2.5 times. (5/6 odds of hitting with each shot, 3 shots). Bolt of Change will hit on average of .833 times (5/6 odds of landing a shot, but only one shot).

 

In fact, since we figured out how many HITS the shot gets (which does not in any way change by WHO is being shot at) we can figure this out for all toughnesses. First number is the average wounds for Doombolt, the second Bolt of Change:

 

T1 = 2.08 / .69

T2 = 2.08 / .69

T3 = 1.66/ .69

T4 = 1.25 / .69

T5 = .83 / .69

T6 = .42 / .69

T7 = .42 / .56

 

After T8 Doombolt is simply impossible to wound. So as we see, factoring average hits, Doombolt will do more WOUNDS than Bolt of Change on target T5 or below.

 

Now of course we don’t have to worry about any armor saves at 3+ for either, and Bolt of Change will ignore ALL armor, being AP 1. But what about Armor with an armor save of 2+? In those cases, Bolt of Change is still going to pierce 2+ armor, but Doombolt will not. So, now we know how many wounds each will cause, on average, on specific toughnesses, what about when those models have a 2+ armor save which will be ignored by Bolt of Change, but not by Doombolt? So the Bolt of Change numbers are going to not change, but Doombolt is going to get less efficient.

 

 

In fact, we don’t even really need to figure this out, because with a 2+ armor save, the wound is going to be ignored 5 times out of 6. The MOST wounds Doombolt does, on average, are against T1 and T2 creatures, which is 2.08 wounds on average. 2.08 wounds against 2+ armor will only ultimately result in a final wound an average of .34 times. Since that’s the best it can do, it won’t get any better. And we see at t7 Bolt of Change will do .56 wounds on average, and ignore that armor.

 

So against targets with an armor save of 3+ or worse (or no armor save), Doombolt is better against targets of T5 or below, and Bolt of Change is better on targets t6 and above. The same is also true for targets with no, or ignorable armor, but with an invulnerable save of any value. Such as, for example, a model with a 3+/4+(i) (like thousand sons marines). Both shots ignore the armor, but are effected by the invulnerable save equally.

 

However if the save is 2+ and there is no invulnerable save, Bolt of Change is better in all circumstances.

 

But how often does a model have a 2+ armor save and no invulnerable save, really? For instance, let’s look at terminators, T4 2+/5+(i). As we know, against t4 targets, Doombolt gets 1.25 wounds, and Bolt of Change gets .69 wounds. But against Doombolt those terminators still get their great 2+ save, but against Bolt of Change it only gets that 5+ invulnerable save. So against that, of the 1.25 wounds caused by Doombolt, only .21 get through the 2+ armor. But Bolt of Change, causing .69 wounds, will have .46 wounds go through. So while against t4 marines with their 3+ armor save, Doombolt is almost twice as good as Bolt of Change, against more heavily armored terminators, that pretty much switches.

 

Against vehicles, of course, Bolt of Change is almost always better because, even with more hits, the S4 Doombolt is going to have a hard time killing something.

 

And, of course, none of this takes into account the differences in range, and cost. Hope this helps some!

[MeatGrinder]

I think my brain just melted

[chillin]

Ummm , yea, he lost me in there somewhere too. Too many words. too many #'s. You should goto law school Siphon :D .

I just think of it like this if I wanna shoot vehicles/monsters I'd use bolt of change if I wanna shoot s/m's I'll use doom bolt.

not trying to rip ya Siphon, info like this is always useful and apprechated.

I will add this to the thread though, I like the old doom bolt MUCH better. Give me

str. 5 ap. 4 assault 3 - over

str. 4 ap. 3 assault 3 - anyday, even if I am shooting at pwr armor. All the xtra wounds you get for rolling 3's are going to more then make up for the armor saves they will get. not to mention the str 5 made it more usefull against other stuff. I say you can't go wrong with a moble hvy bolter.

 

In the old dex I would take a sorc w/ doom bolt, and a unit of horror/flamers, and havocs w/ 3 hb's and an AC, and/or a pred w AC and HB's. With all that str 5 flying around I could cut stuff down. s/m's necrons, it didn't matter. If I took all of the above (and I have) that's 30 str. 5 and 4 str. 7 shoots !

I'm not going to crunch any #'s here but that's alot of armor saves :ot: the point is that they nerfed doombolt (IMO) and I liked it the way it was. :cry: