The Dakka Predator

[minigun762]

The Dakka Predator (AutoCannon Turret, Heavy Bolter Sponsons) is up there with the Obliterator, the Daemon Prince and the Rhino as being a Chaos standard.

We almost always point in its direction when a list is in need of some cheap anti-horde killing power.

 

However I'll admit that even though I talk about them, I haven't taken one myself. Neither have I run the numbers on it and found out if it can be expected to perform as well as we'd all hope but thats what I'm going to do tonight folks!

 

I'm going to pit the Dakka Predator against 3 representative targets:

Ork Boyz, to show its horde killing power

Space Marines, to show how it performs against your baseline opponent (other MEQs)

Rhino, to show how it handles light armor/transports

 

And just for fun, I'm going to add in the Havoc Launcher to see if the upgrade is worth the extra point cost. Simply put, does a Havoc Launcher give you an extra 15% killyness?

I will make the assumption that the Havoc Launcher will hit on target (being TL'd) and hit an average of 3 models. If this assumption seems unreasonable, let me know and I'll change the calculations.

 

Vs Ork Boyz, T4, 6+ Save @ 36"

2 AC shots @ BS4 = 1.33 hits @ S7 = 1.11 wounds = 1.11 dead Orks

6 HB shots @ BS4 = 4 hits @ S5 = 2.66 wounds = 2.66 deak Orks

Optional: 1 HL shot @ BS4 = 3 hits @ S5 = 2 wounds = 2 dead Ork

Total 3.77 dead Orks each turn. 5.77 dead Orks with Havoc Launcher (+53% killyness)

 

Vs Space Marines, T4, 3+ Save @ 36"

2 AC shots @ BS4 = 1.33 hits @ S7 = 1.11 wounds = 0.37 dead Marines

6 HB shots @ BS4 = 4 hits @ S5 = 2.66 wounds = 0.89 dead Marines

Optional: 1 HL shot @ BS4 = 3 hits @ S5 = 2 wounds = 0.66 dead Marines

Total 1.26 dead Marines each turn. 1.92 dead Marines with Havoc Launcher (+52% killyness)

 

Vs Rhino, AV11

2 AC shots @ BS4 = 1.33 hits @ S7 = 0.22 glances or 0.44 penetrating hits

6 HB shots @ BS4 = 4 hits @ S5 = 0.66 glances

Optional: 1 HL shot @ BS4 = 1 hit @ S5 = 0.16 glances

Total: Either 0.88 glance or 0.66 glance and 0.44 penetrating hits, 1.04 glance or 0.82 glance and 0.44 penetrating hits with Havoc Launcher (+18% killyness)

 

My conclusions: The Dakka Predator is actually fairly decent at killing Space Marines and quite deadly against Orks. Factoring in the idea that you should get atleast 3 such shooting phases and you are on your way to neutering most full size squads (of either race) or killing off small squads entirely. While the Orks will often have some sort of Cover Save to protect them, the sheer amount of firepower will still force a fair number of wounds.

I was very surprised with the Havoc Launcher. With my fairly humble assumptions, you consistently increased the firepower of the tank by a large factor, much more than the 15% increase in points would suggest.

 

In the end, I hope this helps people and gives a little more meat to our support of this little tank.

[Drudge Dreadnought]

It looks good on paper, but now compare it to oblits or a defiler and see what comes out better point for point. IE 3 dakka preds vs 2 defilers or 4 oblits. ^_^

[Brother Asmodius]

I ran a dakka pred against some Guard in a game awhile back and it performed up to standards though i didnt add a havoc laucher. And while i dont run them in my normal list, I think they are definately the standard when tackling hordes.

 

If based on mathhammer we go off of what minigun put up for killing orks with the dakka pred (minus the havoc laucher)

and add another 2 preds concentrating fire you end up with 9.234 kills per turn 2 or 3 shooting phases and thats 20-30 Orks, at minimum 180 points killed.

 

Obliterators though against hordes will more then likely take to the plasma cannon and based on the same assumption minigun used for the havoc laucher (perhaps not auto hit but the 3 average models) you get

 

4 Obliterators vs. Ork Boys, T4, 6+ save

4 PC shots at BS5 because of Gets Hot! roll = 3.333 sucessful shots times 3 average models hit = 10 hits

10 hits @ Str 7 = 8.3333 kills per turn.

 

Thus in my opinion Dakka Preds are the way to go when fighting hordes even though niether they nor obliterators pay their points back in less than 5-6 turns of shooting. Id do defilers as well but a good precident for the average number of hits would need to be set.

[Lord Doyok]

I'd go for Dakka Preds.. in fact. I'd never go without em.

Of course, defilers and Oblits are nasty in their own way. But they are expensive, and i can still win without them.

[Drudge Dreadnought]

I ran a dakka pred against some Guard in a game awhile back and it performed up to standards though i didnt add a havoc laucher. And while i dont run them in my normal list, I think they are definately the standard when tackling hordes.

 

If based on mathhammer we go off of what minigun put up for killing orks with the dakka pred (minus the havoc laucher)

and add another 2 preds concentrating fire you end up with 9.234 kills per turn 2 or 3 shooting phases and thats 20-30 Orks, at minimum 180 points killed.

 

Obliterators though against hordes will more then likely take to the plasma cannon and based on the same assumption minigun used for the havoc laucher (perhaps not auto hit but the 3 average models) you get

 

4 Obliterators vs. Ork Boys, T4, 6+ save

4 PC shots at BS5 because of Gets Hot! roll = 3.333 sucessful shots times 3 average models hit = 10 hits

10 hits @ Str 7 = 8.3333 kills per turn.

 

Thus in my opinion Dakka Preds are the way to go when fighting hordes even though niether they nor obliterators pay their points back in less than 5-6 turns of shooting. Id do defilers as well but a good precident for the average number of hits would need to be set.

 

So the oblits average 1 less kill per turn vs orcs. But then they have the same amount vs MEQs. The comparison of numbers also doesn't account for the fact that oblits can move, cannot be shaken/stunned or weapon destroyed, can use other weapons (twin-linked flamer vs horde? yes please) and can engage in CC.

 

Sadly there is no reason to take dakka preds when oblits do it better while doing everything else too. And lets not even mention vindicators...

[Warp Angel]

Yeah, but Oblits can be killed by lasgun fire. They're instakilled if they fail an invuln against any of a variety of weapons, etc.

 

Oblits fill a different niche than a dakka predator. They aren't "better" in all roles.

[Brother Asmodius]

While i agree that Obliterators are definately powerful (note that i fielded a dakka pred once and i field oblits every game without fail), they are not what i would use against a horde which is the suggested niche of the dakka pred. Dakka Pred can move 6" a turn and still fire so they are actually more mobile than the oblits. Oblits in CC with a unit of Orks is not a fair fight by any means and would spell the end of your oblit. The odds of you getting to actually use your TL Flamers against the Orks would be slim though arguably effective if you could. So even though its only one more kill on average, if they both cost the same amount of points, ill take the extra kill any day.

[minigun762]

4 Obliterators vs. Ork Boys, T4, 6+ save

4 PC shots at BS5 because of Gets Hot! roll = 3.333 sucessful shots times 3 average models hit = 10 hits

10 hits @ Str 7 = 8.3333 kills per turn.

 

Question, why did you give the Obliterators BS5?

 

 

Part of the difficulty in trying to Math-Hammer cup cakes and pie plates is that finding an average is much more difficult due to the issues of scatter and model placement. Thats part of the reason I made the assumption that a BS4 TL'd weapon would hit on target. Truth be told it hits on target 72% of the time and will scatter less than 3" 30% of the time (I believe these are correct). The point is its "probably" good enough.

 

Drudge Dreadnought: Comparing it to the other vehicles is doable, but will require a little more work. First off, what would be an acceptable average number of models to cover using the 5" blast? I find for the 3" blast, 3 is a good average.

Second, what will we consider "good enough" for scatter? Do we need a direct hit? within 2"? 4"?

 

So if we can come up with some guidelines that we all agree on, I'll be happy to run the numbers.

[Brother Asmodius]

I gave the Obliterators BS5 because I assumed that at long range against hordes they would use their Plasma Cannons for the template. But because of the Gets Hot! rule, one sixth of the time the cannon will get hot and fail to fire. Thus when firing a Plasma Cannon, Obliterators and everything else might as well have a BS of 5 for actually shooting it (not scattering of course). Sorry if i didnt make this clearer.

[minigun762]

I see where you're going. I'm not sure if thats the most accurate, but like I mentioned before, trying to deal with scatter and number of models hit is hard to guess at.

 

I would have done it using BS4 and reduced by overall by 16% (to represent the 1/6 chance of Overheating and not firing)

[Drudge Dreadnought]

Oblits fill a different niche than a dakka predator. They aren't "better" in all roles.

 

Dakka pred is a specialized anti horde unit, Oblits are the anti all comers unit. What i'm arguing is that since oblits are only a tiny bit worse at anti horde than dakka and are amazing in other areas as well there is never a reason to take a dakka pred over them unless you know you are fighting green tide, and even then the oblits are probably better if that green tide is in trucks or has nob support or the equivilent.

 

Dakka Pred can move 6" a turn and still fire so they are actually more mobile than the oblits. Oblits in CC with a unit of Orks is not a fair fight by any means and would spell the end of your oblit. The odds of you getting to actually use your TL Flamers against the Orks would be slim though arguably effective if you could. So even though its only one more kill on average, if they both cost the same amount of points, ill take the extra kill any day.

 

If the Dakka Pred moves it can only fire 1 gun in 5th ed remember, so thats hardly comparable. And yes oblits are not a great CC unit, but the predator won't be winning any CC fights either, especially not again powerklaws. The odds of using the flamers are slim yes, but so are the ods of ever firing the pred seeing that it can be shaken/stunned. And remember that in the comparison you are using 3 heavy slots on dakka preds but only 2 on the oblits.

[Warp Angel]

Can't you get something like 2 Dakka Preds for the same cost as 3 Oblits? I post mostly from a location without my codexes, so I can't remember.

[AkiraCho]

yeah you can 3 oblits are just about 2 predators.

 

i prefer predators, but again they dont perform the same duty as Oblits. so keep that in mind.

[minigun762]

Dakka pred is a specialized anti horde unit, Oblits are the anti all comers unit. What i'm arguing is that since oblits are only a tiny bit worse at anti horde than dakka and are amazing in other areas as well there is never a reason to take a dakka pred over them unless you know you are fighting green tide, and even then the oblits are probably better if that green tide is in trucks or has nob support or the equivilent.

 

Obliterators are basically the "Missile Launcher" of Chaos. They can perform all duties pretty well. When in doubt, they're rarely a bad choice to take.

 

The issue is though just as a Missile Launcher might be useable against a horde army, a Heavy Bolter will be better at that role. The Obliterators' Plasma Cannon is going to be decent for horde killing, but a Dakka Predator (especially with a Havoc Launcher) is going to be superior.

 

With no disrespect to Brother Asmodius, I believe his assumptions on the number of kills that a Plasma Cannon would get are a bit high, due to the issues surrounding scattering. I'll try to do the best I can to give a more realistic scenario (though let me know if you don't agree)

 

3 Plasma Cannons vs 2 Dakka Predators with Havoc Launchers

 

Dakka Predator Totals (from earlier in post)

Ork: 5.77 dead Orks

Marines: 1.92 dead Marines

 

3 Plasma Cannons

vs Orks

3 shots @ BS4 = 1 direct hit and 0.33 hits landing within 3" of target

1.33 hits @ 3 models on average = 4 models hit @ S7 = 3.5 dead Orks

vs Marines

3 shots @ BS4 = 1 direct hit and 0.33 hits landing within 3" of target

1.33 hits @ 3 models on average = 4 models hit @ S7 = 3.5 dead Marines

 

3 Plasma Cannons Totals:

Ork: 3.5

Marines: 3.5

 

So what we see is that Plasma Cannons do a good job of killing Marines since it goes through their Armor save, but against Orks or other horde, the sheer number of shots starts to show through.

 

EDIT: I didn't factor in the chance of an Overheat against the Plasma Cannons, but that would bring down its firepower by 16%, making the average kills about 3 of each.

[Brother Asmodius]

If the Dakka Pred moves it can only fire 1 gun in 5th ed remember, so thats hardly comparable.

 

Ahh yes i forget. Sorry the vehicles rules from different editions sometimes get into my head.

 

Darn Mathhammer+Scattering Templates, oh well the results still favor the Preds.

 

I would like to see some numbers run on Defilers though. I think the average models hit but the large template even with 2" dispersal is around 7. Does this sound reasonable?

[minigun762]

I would like to see some numbers run on Defilers though. I think the average models hit but the large template even with 2" dispersal is around 7. Does this sound reasonable?

 

I'll run with that. Lets see how the Defiler stacks up (just using the Battle Cannon here as thats all that matters, to me atleast ;) )

Defiler's Battle Cannon

1 shot @ BS3 = 0.33 chance of direct hit, 0.04 change to scatter less than 3" (for a direct hit) and 22% for less than 3" of scatter (I think thats right...)

Basically that means you have a 0.37 chance to hit directly and 59% chance to be within 3"

S8 hitting 7 models = 5.888 dead Orks or Marines on a direct hit

 

Grrr I'm not sure I'm doing this right to be honest. Attempting to factor in the amount of scatter is ending up to be a big pain. I might need to post something elsewhere to have someone else do the math regarding scattering.

[the jeske]

you guys should never test it like that , because oblits are rarelly used without lash princes and while lash does nothing for preds it greatlly increases the kill ratio of a oblit.

[deepstrike]

you guys should never test it like that , because oblits are rarelly used without lash princes and while lash does nothing for preds it greatlly increases the kill ratio of a oblit.

especially when you pull the enemy unit out of cover. So oblits need lash do be most effective and preds could care less. A dakka pred with havoc launcher can put out some brutal volleys making it great for engaging infantry while the pred can engage anything with a solid chance of success but to really get the kills on infantry they need help from another largely staple unit. Still sounds like personal preference to me.

[Brother Asmodius]

you guys should never test it like that , because oblits are rarelly used without lash princes and while lash does nothing for preds it greatlly increases the kill ratio of a oblit.

 

What is a better way for holding two units up for comparison against the same foe to judge effeciveness? I mean this in a friendly way because the method being used seems to make sense as a fair use of balenced points and statistics.

[minigun762]

you guys should never test it like that , because oblits are rarelly used without lash princes and while lash does nothing for preds it greatlly increases the kill ratio of a oblit.

 

that is a good point Jeske. its one of the difficulties with math-hammer is to account for every variable thats present and then find a way to factor it in.

 

at this point though, I'm ok with saying that the Obliterator is the multi-functional unit and the Dakka Predator is the specialized unit that outperforms it in its intended role.

 

The thing I learned was that the Havoc Launcher went from being an expensive upgrade to a very smart selection for the Dakka Predator.

[doctor_wu]

Lash+havoc launcher is not a benefit for the predator? This could also work it just not as effective. Lash a unit with like krak grenades away from the pred as it is immobile does not also gain a benefit. Lash tau pathfinders out of cover and shoot them with the dakka pred would work well too. And those markerlights can get annoying. Lashing a unit to be able to get the other sponson in sight when rotating would expose your side armor.. Really lash has a million uses.

 

Oblits are also good. They also are great against monstruous creatures at close range with the twin-linked plasma gun. I did three wounds to a chaos deamons deamon prince this way. Antitank is another thing obliterators can also do.

 

In the end it really depends what the list needs.

[Warp Angel]

you guys should never test it like that , because oblits are rarelly used without lash princes and while lash does nothing for preds it greatlly increases the kill ratio of a oblit.

 

that is a good point Jeske. its one of the difficulties with math-hammer is to account for every variable thats present and then find a way to factor it in.

 

at this point though, I'm ok with saying that the Obliterator is the multi-functional unit and the Dakka Predator is the specialized unit that outperforms it in its intended role.

 

The thing I learned was that the Havoc Launcher went from being an expensive upgrade to a very smart selection for the Dakka Predator.

 

Mathhammer and Killhammer are tools that help supplement experience, playstyle, and army composition. Neither are guarantees of success, but they both help you manage the odds and manipulate them in your favor by putting you in favorable positions with favorable units and unit matchups.

 

With the Dakka Pred vs. Oblits, it really does come down to apples vs. oranges, because advantages are situational. Each has a role in which they excel, and each is vulnerable in ways that the other isn't. If you need anti-horde, you probably aren't going to look first at Oblits. If you need anti-tank/generalist heavy weapons, a dakka pred is the wrong choice. It's up to the general to decide what their army needs.

[the jeske]

If you need anti-horde, you probably aren't going to look first at Oblits

why ? oblits kill ratio with lash is superior to predators in everyway + unlike preds oblits can do anti tank and anti meq at the same time . unless someone faces a lot of horde armies [play field meta] oblits are superior . and even when doing meta with preds its still going to be 2x2 oblits and a dakka pred.