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trying to understand mathahammer


War Angel

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Ive never done mathahammer, so im trying to figure it out useing my prospected command squad. i cant do it with the numbers like i see most people doing, but i can do it with the number of times you'll get a 3 or higher on a 6 sidded dice if you roll it howevef many times

 

its got a total of 3 Plasmaguns, a plasma pistol, and a combi plasma. Cause its in a Drop Pod Army...

 

turn one it WILL be within 12 of a squad...lets say a big 'ol terrmmy squad ;) so it gets 9 plasma shots....

 

so im likely to get each number 1.5 times right? so thats 1.5 of my guys overheating (OohRah Aprothicary's) 1.5 guys getting a 2....so i got 6 hits right????

 

 

to wound with a plasma gun i need 2's...so average would be 5 wounds right? and they only get there 5 up....so they would save.... 1.2???

 

 

so my squad should be killing about 4 terrmies from there plasma guns?

 

 

 

how do you put this into precents out of 100, and how can i give myself the odds to get that fifth terrmmy?

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yes, the company commander has a relic blade and theres another close combat guy or two in the squad.

 

 

thanks for the post, gota make sure this squad can take something big out when it first lands, otherwise its not going to be an effective drop choice....

its got a total of 3 Plasmaguns, a plasma pistol, and a combi plasma. Cause its in a Drop Pod Army...

turn one it WILL be within 12 of a squad...lets say a big 'ol terrmmy squad ;) so it gets 9 plasma shots....

so im likely to get each number 1.5 times right? so thats 1.5 of my guys overheating (OohRah Aprothicary's) 1.5 guys getting a 2....so i got 6 hits right????

to wound with a plasma gun i need 2's...so average would be 5 wounds right? and they only get there 5 up....so they would save.... 1.2???

so my squad should be killing about 4 terrmies from there plasma guns?

how do you put this into precents out of 100, and how can i give myself the odds to get that fifth terrmmy?

 

Math-hammer comes in two main versions. The simple version relies on averages, with the understanding that sometime the dice go crazy. The complex version relies more on probability, to give you an expected result.

 

So you deep strike in with your squad and rapid fire, that gives you 9 Plasma shots total

The simple version would be 9 shots x 0.67 chance to hit = 6 hits x 0.83 chance to wound = 5 wounds x 0.67 chance NOT to save = 3.33 dead Terminators on average

The complex version would be needed to show you the chance of killing all 5 Terminators. Specifically it would be the chance to get atleast 5 unsaved wounds onto the squad. Thats a harder then I can do it my head though.

 

For the most part, using the average method with a little bit of +/- works well enough. You can assume that you're Drop Pod squad will normally kill 2-4 Terminators when they rapid fire.

ok, so heres an expansion to the question... would it be effective to give a command squad 4plasmas (and one pistol) AND the commander a plasma (or would a pistol be better?)

 

i would like to keep the squads close combat powers in the average to good lvl's, because where eles in the spacemarine codex can i get something with such closecombat skills as a commander? but at the same time i plan on droping this entire company in pods, so i think its key to have some firepower on that first turn, and with out sternguard (there first company) i cant really get that kind of firepower on drop turn anywhere eles...

ok, so heres an expansion to the question... would it be effective to give a command squad 4plasmas (and one pistol) AND the commander a plasma (or would a pistol be better?)

 

I'd ask you a question, what is it you're hoping to kill with all that Plasma?

Plasma, in general, is really good for knocking out MCs and Terminators as well as being solid for killing MEQs and light armor.

However these may not be the kind of things you want to drop your Command Squad right next to.

 

If it was me, I'd probably go 50/50 with 2 Flamers and 2 Meltaguns. Then I'd give my Captain a Combi-Melta (much better then a Plasma Pistol, its cheaper, stronger and safer). That means I have 3 Melta shots against armor/MC when I land and 2 templates to use againts Orks/IG.

Most importantly, all the weapons are assault so I can fire them and charge on the next turn.

actualy, right now i have it in the list for captain with a SB, and theres another SB in the squad, along with the combi plasma, two plasma guns, and the champian has a plasma.

 

i dont really have a set for what i want to drop it next to, i just figgured it would be nice to wipe something off the board with it, and giving them melta's, while good against tanks...thats one kill, i need something eles to kill and a smart tank commander will just get out of range of something like that, i get one kill and then im stuck right?

 

 

though...im wondering how it would actualy play out in a game....

I see where you're going, but coming from a Chaos perspective, we find that Flamers/Melta is usually a more well rounded combo then Plasma and you can get both guns for the price of a single Plasma most of the time.

 

For me, the selling point of Plasmaguns is more about their 24" range. Thats alot more then the effective range of Flamers/Meltaguns, but dropping right onto of the enemy negates that main advantage.

this is true... perhaps an idea for a seperate command squad... so, from personal experiance, how have the flamer/melta combo's worked out for you? can you give me an example of when youve droped and say, popped a tank, then burned a squad of guardsmen cowering in the trees?

 

im just wondering to whom do i give each weapon now (for a bit of fluff i used all the 3 charicters in a command squad)

Well for me, I normally outfit my "aggressive" Chaos Marines with a Flamer/Meltagun and Power Fist and shove them in a Rhino.

What this lets me do is be effective against most any target.

Got a brood of Genestealers that are going to pounce on you? Run up, disembark, flame them, fire bolt pistols and charge.

Got a nasty Dreadnought whose blasting away your army? Hit him with the Meltagun then charge backed up by Krak Grenades and a Power Fist.

 

With a Command Squad, you can bring a pair of each weapons, meaning you have alot of firepower whenever and where ever you need it.

The big bonus for Melta/Flamer is that you can assault after shooting. Its not huge for the Command Squad itself, but for the HQ units attached, its a bonus.

 

Oh and a sidenote, don't underestimate Flamers against basic Marines. On average, every 3 Flamer hits is the same as 1 Plasma shot. So if you're able to get 12 hits between 2 Flamers (not that hard really) thats the same as rapid firing 2 Plasmaguns into the squad.

Oh I see, I just assumed you had the Apothecary and 4 Vets, so everyone would get one gun.

Honestly, it doesn't matter too much who gets what, assuming they can all carry it. If I had to pick, I'd probably give the Flamers to the basic Vets and the Meltagun to the more expensive members, as the Meltagun provides something that the Flamer cannot with solid anti-tank.

Well for me, I normally outfit my "aggressive" Chaos Marines with a Flamer/Meltagun and Power Fist and shove them in a Rhino.

What this lets me do is be effective against most any target.

Got a brood of Genestealers that are going to pounce on you? Run up, disembark, flame them, fire bolt pistols and charge.

 

Problem with this scenario is it's not legal. You can't move the Rhino, disembark, fire AND charge. You can do everything up to the shooting, but no charging. Can't assault after diembarking from a moving non-Assault Vehicle. In this case the flamers might be nice, but the plasma beats the meltas because the plasmas can rapid fire after disembarkation.

 

I like the Plasma Death Command Squad idea, as well. I'm building mine 5-strong. Three plasmaguns, the champion, and an Apothecary. Combine them with your commander of choice with plasma pistol (I tend to use Sicarius) in a Razorback or Rhino (Rhino has fire points, so you can fire the plasmaguns from inside). I avoid the flamers because I feel that if I'm allowing the horde to get that close to my command squad, something is wrong. A 5-man unit will quickly be borne down by numbers, so I want to be using them against smaller, tougher targets like Meganobz, tactical Terminators, or MCs.

Well for me, I normally outfit my "aggressive" Chaos Marines with a Flamer/Meltagun and Power Fist and shove them in a Rhino.

What this lets me do is be effective against most any target.

Got a brood of Genestealers that are going to pounce on you? Run up, disembark, flame them, fire bolt pistols and charge.

 

Problem with this scenario is it's not legal. You can't move the Rhino, disembark, fire AND charge. You can do everything up to the shooting, but no charging. Can't assault after diembarking from a moving non-Assault Vehicle. In this case the flamers might be nice, but the plasma beats the meltas because the plasmas can rapid fire after disembarkation.

 

 

True, I combined two turns in my description.

Normally its either drive up, rapid fire and absorb the counter charge or drive up, wait in Rhino until the next turn then get out and charge.

Sorry about the confusion.

With a Command Squad, you can bring a pair of each weapons, meaning you have alot of firepower whenever and where ever you need it.

The big bonus for Melta/Flamer is that you can assault after shooting. Its not huge for the Command Squad itself, but for the HQ units attached, its a bonus.

 

Don't forget that when you are dropping inside a Pod, you can't assault on the turn you show up anyway so your assault weapons lose a little of their luster. Conversely, rapid-fire weapons don't really prove to be such a disadvantage since you can't shoot and charge anyway. Of course, you aren't taking "Gets Hot" wounds either with your melta/flamer combo so that might help you stick around a little longer.

 

The only time that you'd really have better luck with the assault weapons in a squad like this is if you managed to survive the turn after the drop and were not charged by the enemy. At that point you could fire again, and then charge. I wouldn't really count on that happening enough to plan your unit around it though.

  • 2 weeks later...

sorry i kind of forgot about this topic. im going to give both a shot, the reasons for that being

 

A. i woulnt get to assault right away, so the rapid fire downside dosnt really apply

 

B. This would make the most use of my aprothicary, getting to use him during there shooting phase and my own

 

C. Im not sure on the rules, but if biker nobz need to move to get the 4+ inv save, a first round drop takes that bonus away from them pretty hard core. if not, i can stick to useing this as a masive plasma elemination squad, something no other squad in the second company can accomplish.

 

(choice 2) flamer melta

 

A. If it works, it gives me good flexability against infanty and tanks, or just big single units. always helpful to nock a few wounds off of thoes MC's before engageing them.

 

B. cheaper

 

C. shrug

 

 

 

im not really sure what i liked about choice two to begin with....

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