Oblits vs Combi-Predator

[chillin]

Chillin, if you caught my previous post, you'll notice that a Heavy Bolter can't penetrate AV11. It can, at most, glance it and with glances being what they are, I don't believe the Heavy Bolter is really worthwhile for Rhino busting. You'd literally have to glance off every weapon and immobilize it and with only glancing on 6's, thats a tough task.

 

Doesn't need to pen., against a good player you should rarely, if ever, be able to get a pen. on a rino, even if your using a LC or a rail gun. A rino should be using terrain, another rino or LR, or popping smk, to ensure that you never get a pen. hit on them. So IMO it's how many time you can glance them that matters, not trying to pen.. I'd rather glance 4 times with HB's then glance once with a LC. I just need to roll a immoilized or a stunned (b/c some many people think x armor isn't worth it) to accomplish my goal, & the more times I roll on that table then more chances I have of rolling a 4 or 5 (modified by -2). Notice in both my examples I used a combo of AC's and HB's, the AC is more likely to defeat the armor per shot but the Hb's add that wieght of fire that Drudge was talking about. And more often then you might think it's one of the hb's that roll the stun while the AC misses or blows off a bolter or something.

 

EDIT: oh yea, NL dred, this is my retort to your last reply as well :P ;)

[Night Lord Dred]

Dakka Predator:

 

AC - 2 -> Hits 1.34 -> Pens/Glances 0.67 -> Cover ~0.34

 

HBs - 6 -> Hits 4 -> Glances 0.67 -> Cover ~0.34

0.67 damaging hits total.

----

 

Combi - Predator:

 

AC - 2 -> Hits 1.34 -> Pens/Glances 0.67 -> Cover ~0.34

 

LC - 2 -> Hits 1.34 -> Pens/Glances 1.116 -> Cover ~0.56

~0.9 damaging hits total.

 

Combi-Pred still outperforms it. Dont forget it can also pen easier (and who wouldnt want that?). So even under your somewhat unrealistic conditions, the Combi-Pred still outperforms it.

Sorry, I had to post it ;).

 

 

EDIT: Meanwhile, autocannon havocs:

 

8 shots -> 5.36 hit -> 2.68 pens/glances -> 1.34 damaging hits.

[minigun762]

Doesn't need to pen., against a good player you should rarely, if ever, be able to get a pen. on a rino, even if your using a LC or a rail gun.

 

Ahh good point Chillin. I was looking at things purely from a penetrating hit perspective, where the focus was to kill it.

You're aim is more to stun or immobilize it, destroying it is not necesarry.

 

That goes back to the point I made that it really depends on what your army needs. If you're short on ranged firepower against low AV targets and MCs, than an AC/LC Pred fits the bill nicely.

 

Your playstyle, your army build, your opponents and all that.

 

I agree 100% Warp Angel. ALL of this discussion needs to be used in the light of "what does my army need?"

[Drudge Dreadnought]

Yeah, there's a bunch of mistakes. I'm glad people have picked them up. I'm seeing them myself now that its not 3:00 in the morning. Anyway, glad it still helped the discussion. This is why i'm only an Aspiring Champion of Mathhammer :)

[chillin]

Dakka Predator:

AC - 2 -> Hits 1.34 -> Pens/Glances 0.67 -> Cover ~0.34

HBs - 6 -> Hits 4 -> Glances 0.67 -> Cover ~0.34

0.67 damaging hits total.

----

Combi - Predator:

AC - 2 -> Hits 1.34 -> Pens/Glances 0.67 -> Cover ~0.34

LC - 2 -> Hits 1.34 -> Pens/Glances 1.116 -> Cover ~0.56

~0.9 damaging hits total.

Combi-Pred still outperforms it. Dont forget it can also pen easier (and who wouldnt want that?). So even under your somewhat unrealistic conditions, the Combi-Pred still outperforms it.

 

Actually if you look at my orig post and my one to you I was talking about the dakka combi pred w/ TL'ed LC & HB's. I don't know if that makes that much of a difference. But if you want to run it we could find out (I'd have to find my dusty, old finite math book from college (if I didn't sell the $60 book back for 18 cents in college ;) )

The AC & HB's I was talking more about havocs.

What conditions are you refering to as "unrealistic" ? Usually getting nothing but glances at rinos ? It's been my experience that against a good player that's all you get. Who's going to drive his rino out in the middle of the board, not pop smk and just let you shoot it ? An inexperienced (or drunk) player only. Maybe at a game store where there might be less terrain people are forced to do that more ?

 

I'm not saying that a dakka combi pred is as good at killing rions as a combi pred, I'm saying it's jack of all trade roles of being good vs hoards & IG, pretty good vs rinos, pretty good vs meq's, even a fair chance of damaging AV 12 & 13, make it a viable choice.

If you think it's not a viable choice, that's kool, we can agree to disagree.

[Night Lord Dred]

Your argument doesnt really make any sense. No matter what, there is always going to a 1/6 chance to glance. Hoping for a glance would mean you would need 6 shots just to get one (like the heavy bolter).

 

However, if you were to use an autocannon & LC pred, you are still more likely to pen than you are to glance. I have no idea why you think smoke or cover and playing a smart opponent will give you more glances. It has no basis. The odds are just cut in half, and seeing as how # of pens > glances, the odds are still in favour of pens.

 

The information for a LC & HB pred is mostly within my post.

 

Dakka Las Predator:

 

HBs - 6 -> Hits 4 -> Glances 0.67 -> Cover ~0.34

 

LC - 1 -> Hits 0.89 (twin linked) -> Pens/Glances 0.74 -> Cover ~0.37

 

=0.71 damaging hits.

 

 

So for 135 points, 5 points more than a combi-predators, you get a predator that does 0.04 more damage inflicting shots than the one 35 points less, and 0.2 less damage than the one 5 points less.

[grimz]

So two 5 man havoc squads with 8 ACs total is good or bad :tu:?

[Chimerical]

What conditions are you refering to as "unrealistic" ? Usually getting nothing but glances at rinos ? It's been my experience that against a good player that's all you get. Who's going to drive his rino out in the middle of the board, not pop smk and just let you shoot it ? An inexperienced (or drunk) player only. Maybe at a game store where there might be less terrain people are forced to do that more ?

 

I don't understand your point either. Cover doesn't affect the ratio of rolling a glancing or penetrating hit. :D

[Sanctjud]

So two 5 man havoc squads with 8 ACs total is good or bad :D?

 

It's good for min cost/max shots.

It's bad for kill points.

They are not that durable and can start losing hvy weapons fast.

 

Take up precious hvy support slots that couls be other things.

 

In the end it's personal taste, but I'd beef up the squads, generally 1 body bag per weapon.

 

My 7 Cents.

[minigun762]

So two 5 man havoc squads with 8 ACs total is good or bad :(?

 

It's good for min cost/max shots.

It's bad for kill points.

They are not that durable and can start losing hvy weapons fast.

 

Take up precious hvy support slots that couls be other things.

 

In the end it's personal taste, but I'd beef up the squads, generally 1 body bag per weapon.

 

My 7 Cents.

 

Agreed.

With Havocks, you're trying to find a balanced between max firepower, durability and point cost.

I find that balance to be either 6 Marines/3 Heavies or 8/4.

Some people swear by the 5 Marine/4 Heavy idea because its the most firepower at the lowest cost, which is true.

But you're also very low durability and you only have 1 bullet catcher.

 

I believe that the Havocks biggest asset is their durability. They're harder to kill than either Oblits or a Predator if deployed properly. However that durability has some built in waste in the form of the Bolter Marines not being that helpful, which ups the price tag.

[Chimerical]

I've only fielded Havocs a couple of times since the current 'dex came in, but I found they were lower priority targets for enemies than Oblits, Defilers and Vindies tend to be, not to mention your other nasties like Princes. They don't get much respect. So, if you were to use them I don't think it'd be worth getting 2 marines for every heavy weapon. I'd be going 5 and 3, or 6 and 4.

[minigun762]

I have what I consider to be a very fundamental question for all this discussion.

 

Considering the LOS rules in 5th Edition, in general is long range firepower weaker or stronger then in the last edition?

 

My initial thought is that its stronger. Even though units will often get cover saves, it is much easier to actually target them and fire. In my book, its better to fire a LasCannon at a tank with a 4+ save, then not be able to fire at all because of terrain.

 

This also means that static firepower isn't as much of a disadvantage. If you have sufficient range to a unit, you'll often have the ability to target it.

[the jeske]

well for me it got weaker. first of all the cover of +4 means to actually be sure that a tank gets stuned [without using melta] one has to use 4/5 lascanons are weapons simiular to it. now considering there are no mini max anymore thats 2 units of oblits [whole hvy support] or 3/4 units of csm/sm with lascanons[only csm dont use hvy weapon squads] . thats its firing with the whole army at a single tank and maybe getting a stun/shaken out if it. Thats one thing . Second thing is the number of tanks/transports in 5th ed . in the 4th we had landspeeders , dreads [all take for AC] , eldar/tau skimers [couldnt kill those , best way to counter was to stun them with Autocanon+tank hunter havocks] ,2 sniper rhinos in gunline builds , monoliths [never fire at those] , preds for BL khorn builds[again auto canon tank hunter havocks worked wonders here] , indirect fire tanks like defiler/basilisk [again chaos unless it was gunline could get in to minimal range real fast and when it tried direct fire , those "tanks" were nailed with las minimax and havocks] and thats it. Rarelly did a non IG/Eldar/tau army run full mecha and even then it was more important to control those tanks and kill all the other stuff then go after the tanks . Righ now all sm and csm are mecha , this means that long range fire power based armies offten have one turn less to shot [army moves faster] and there is a lot more targets. killing one rhino out of 4 is not good , when 3 are untouched and the squad from the destroyed one just runs behind a rhino wall. And thats just rhinos . 5th saw the return of LR rush army and here is where the fun begins . with lascanons [or god forbid rocket launchers] it takes ages to actually do something to them. While on the other hand a melta dread , stern pod or termicd can blow the LR up really nicelly.

 

 

as the static fire power goes. If it was true that static fire power was ok in 5th ed , we would see a lot of gunline lists . specially out of chaos who could have a mix of NM/1ksons and lascanon armed oblits [thats moving gunline] and some counter units in the form of 10 man csm squads with lascanons. But we dont see those lists , because they are not good .mainlly because long range fire power has problems with countering mech effectivlly and secondlly because a static fire power army works only when it has tons of cheap hvy support units [like 4th ed sm gunline had].

[Redbaron997]

I have really started to Re examine Preds, For an army that needs long rang anti-tank (Like my World Eaters) a Las Predator is great, its much cheaper than Oblits and can put out the same firepower. Its more fragil true, but for the price difference I can live with that.

 

Combi-Preds are very intriging to.

[the jeske]

but the price difference is really minimal . 2x2 oblits and 2 preds is not even half a squad difference in points.

[minigun762]

well for me it got weaker. first of all the cover of +4 means to actually be sure that a tank gets stuned [without using melta] one has to use 4/5 lascanons are weapons simiular to it. now considering there are no mini max anymore thats 2 units of oblits [whole hvy support] or 3/4 units of csm/sm with lascanons[only csm dont use hvy weapon squads] . thats its firing with the whole army at a single tank and maybe getting a stun/shaken out if it. Thats one thing . Second thing is the number of tanks/transports in 5th ed . in the 4th we had landspeeders , dreads [all take for AC] , eldar/tau skimers [couldnt kill those , best way to counter was to stun them with Autocanon+tank hunter havocks] ,2 sniper rhinos in gunline builds , monoliths [never fire at those] , preds for BL khorn builds[again auto canon tank hunter havocks worked wonders here] , indirect fire tanks like defiler/basilisk [again chaos unless it was gunline could get in to minimal range real fast and when it tried direct fire , those "tanks" were nailed with las minimax and havocks] and thats it. Rarelly did a non IG/Eldar/tau army run full mecha and even then it was more important to control those tanks and kill all the other stuff then go after the tanks . Righ now all sm and csm are mecha , this means that long range fire power based armies offten have one turn less to shot [army moves faster] and there is a lot more targets. killing one rhino out of 4 is not good , when 3 are untouched and the squad from the destroyed one just runs behind a rhino wall. And thats just rhinos . 5th saw the return of LR rush army and here is where the fun begins . with lascanons [or god forbid rocket launchers] it takes ages to actually do something to them. While on the other hand a melta dread , stern pod or termicd can blow the LR up really nicelly.

 

 

as the static fire power goes. If it was true that static fire power was ok in 5th ed , we would see a lot of gunline lists . specially out of chaos who could have a mix of NM/1ksons and lascanon armed oblits [thats moving gunline] and some counter units in the form of 10 man csm squads with lascanons. But we dont see those lists , because they are not good .mainlly because long range fire power has problems with countering mech effectivlly and secondlly because a static fire power army works only when it has tons of cheap hvy support units [like 4th ed sm gunline had].

 

A very nice post there Jeske.

I would agree with parts of what you said.

The days of knocking out Land Raiders with Missiles or LasCannons is gone. They're just too well protected to have any luck at range. The increase in Land Raider lists that happened because of this led directly to the creation of Termicide or Drop Pod Dread squads with the sole goal of bringing Melta death to heavy armor.

 

However if you take that one step further, I believe people will start to counter the Termicide squads by not using single expensive vehicles like Raiders or Leman Russ and instead using a fleet of cheap light armor like Rhinos and Predators.

Now instead of your 100 point Termicide squad knocking out a 200+ point Land Raider, you're killing a 35 point Rhino or maybe a 100 point Predator both of which are much less efficient.

The best way to knock out a fleet of light armor is with long range firepower like AutoCannons and LasCannons. Of course this takes us back to the very start of the circle.

 

In my mind, I feel that a mix of short range Melta death and long range shooting is the safest way to go.

[the jeske]

Now instead of your 100 point Termicide squad knocking out a 200+ point Land Raider, you're killing a 35 point Rhino or maybe a 100 point Predator both of which are much less efficient.

well chaos has lash . If I pop a rhino one squad is unprotected and gets oblited [and in the case of my army hit with 2-3 NM units ] . At the same time those 3 termis are still there with a 12" treat range , contesting objectives etc one rhino/tank down + fire going away from my army is worth more , then a cheaper[but not much cheaper] tank that is my tank support [unless its stuned or has to move] . now the difference betwen oblits and preds would be , if for example not taking oblits one squad more [even without rhino , aps champ etc] . I mean what am I going to do with those points . run 2 preds and 4 man combi termis x2 ? then am toast against eldar and tau , because 2 termicid is not enough to reliably stop their transports. also why the point that rhinos/razarbacks/preds will be used more after codex SW can be argued[different playfield meta game] , eldar and tau wont stop using their serpents/devilfish etc.

 

In my mind, I feel that a mix of short range Melta death and long range shooting is the safest way to go.

I can agree with that and its probally why we see 2x2melta squads[short range] , oblits[long range] and termicid[short range] played so offten .

[Night Lord Dred]

At the same time those 3 termis are still there with a 12" treat range , contesting objectives etc one rhino/tank down + fire going away from my army is worth more , then a cheaper[but not much cheaper] tank that is my tank support [unless its stuned or has to move] . now the difference betwen oblits and preds would be , if for example not taking oblits one squad more [even without rhino , aps champ etc] . I mean what am I going to do with those points . run 2 preds and 4 man combi termis x2 ? then am toast against eldar and tau , because 2 termicid is not enough to reliably stop their transports.

 

Honestly, Im not really sure what youre trying to say here. Ive read it over 4 or 5 times and I just dont understand.

 

Like with eldar, how is it any different not having oblits? Oblits do nothing to WSs because its Strg 8 max and no melta. That means theres no difference between 2 oblits and a combi-pred except the combi pred is 20 points cheaper and also has 2 autocannon shots that have the potential to take it down aswell. Even if there were 3 oblits for 225 against a combi pred at 130, the combi pred still gets 1 more shot, though 2 of the 4 are at S7 instead of 8 (which is still better odds for 95 points less).

 

Everything else would be the exact same, except you could get a few more marines or even another unit for "free".

 

If you could clarify what you mean in this post, that would be appreciated, as Im not really sure of what youre trying to say.

[the jeske]

Honestly, Im not really sure what youre trying to say here. Ive read it over 4 or 5 times and I just dont understand.

a predator gets countered once , if its going to get targeted its going to get hit by either stuff like drop pod melta [oblits survive it better] or stuff like fire dragons[again oblits survive it better because of being able to deep strike and having easier use of cover ] . of course that does not mean that oblits are not going to die against eldar. they will. But they will actually do something , unlike the pred.

 

 

Oblits do nothing to WSs because its Strg 8 max and no melta.

yes but I can put them in deep strike , unlike preds who will just get smoked.

also serpents are not totally immune to melta weapons and for me its better to use 6-8 melta guns and 4 mulit melta to try to hunt down 3/4 serpents [with 4 units in deep strike] , then try to hunt the same serpents with just termicid , because the preds will die too fast to counter anything unless I have like first turn and the serpent is in the open . With 4 units I can either control the serpents for a longer time or if everything comes on one turn I actually have a chance to smoke stuff.

 

Even if there were 3 oblits for 225 against a combi pred at 130, the combi pred still gets 1 more shot, though 2 of the 4 are at S7 instead of 8 (which is still better odds for 95 points less).

only no one plays with 3 oblits. its 2 predators vs 4 oblits . 300 pts vs 260 . 40 points is one terminator with combi weapon. And a pred has to be really really lucky to actually be able to shot a serpent . even without fire dragons or war walkers the TL RL on serpents are enough to stun preds.

[Night Lord Dred]

There are obviously advantages to deepstriking, but you cant simply ignore real world consequences for it.

 

Obviously there is scattering. Im assuming you mean DSing behind the rear armour and meltaing them? Well, there is "X" pattern that you must draw to determine which side you hit, so obviously you must land in the top "V". The closer to the bottom of the "V" you try to land in, the harder it is to do so. The higher you are, the closer you are to your enemies lines. If you scatter to the left or right or bottom, you get absolutely no benefit and are not in cover, or you landed on something and mishapped. You then essentially have a 150 or 225 point unit (much more than the expendable termicide) sitting there doing nothing.

 

Then if they WS turboboosted, its not unrealistic to think that 1 of 2 meltas may miss, and the other or both are saved, again, leaving your expensive unit in the open doing nothing.

 

Its very very risky, excellent if you pull it off, but youre gambling an expensive unit.

 

Obviously youre not shooting the first couple of turns either, meaning target priority on your opponents part is far more limited. When these suicide units (youre saying 4 or 5, so 2-3 termicide and 2-3 oblits?) come on the field in turn 2 or 3, the few units you already had on the field are going to be up in flames with no long range fire support. Not the best idea I dont think.

 

---

 

As for the preds, theyre still mech that need to be taken out, and that means rhinos are moving up quicker. At Av13, its really no joke either. Eldar arnt tremendous at long range fire, generally only having 1 high strength shot per unit.

 

Fire Dragons are for close range, I dont see how theyll take them out (nor do eldar players generally consider them ideal units).

 

War Walkers are a problem, yes, but they still have their own problems. Brightlances mean no scatter lasers. If they do outflank and use SLs on side armour 11, they still only pen on 6s. 12 hits means 2 pens, provided its perfect circumstances with no cover and outflanking rolls/LOS. Worst case scenario here is the one predator gets outflanked on turn 2 (after shooting only once because you went second) by 3 WWs and gets destroyed. Then you still have your other pred and autocannons (which will completely own them) to take them down and gain far more points back anyways (I think its 180). Thats the worst case scenario. Maybe they come in turn 4 and do nothing, who knows?

 

WSs that arnt turboboosting just in the slight chance theyll take down a pred? Not likely.

 

Honestly, I probably play Eldar the most now against my friend who is easily the best player Im friends with (to the point where Im about to buy Eldar to play with as theyre so fun to play against). He has a lot of trouble taking down preds. Going out of your way to kill a pred means youre not taking down all those marines rushing at you. Those outflanking WWs are basically a suicide unit, one that will make less than its points back even under perfect conditions.

 

---

 

As for preds shooting WSs, not likely alone but possible due to the volume of shots together. ~3 lascannons hit and ~3 autocannons hit. 1/3 (1/2) chance of pen (glance) for las, 1/6 (1/3) chance of pen (glance) for AC. Cut in half for TBing.

[Redbaron997]

I take two wraithlords with BL and EML, and I can never seem to scratch any armour, and when I do, it has an 4+ save half the time :/ (all the time since my main opponent is Tau)

 

Its intresting how most of us considered preds a far inferior option a couple months ago are starting to reconsider them, mainly cause they are cheaper and just add in more mech.

 

Another good point is the physical aspects.

 

1. Cheaper money wise.

 

2. Smaller than a defilier or such, meaning easier to hide in terrain, and easier to transport.

 

Plus a bunch of Dragon mouth cannons look really cool.

[minigun762]

Its intresting how most of us considered preds a far inferior option a couple months ago are starting to reconsider them, mainly cause they are cheaper and just add in more mech.

 

My intention in starting this discussion (which has been very interesting and informative I must say, thank you all for participating) is to give Chaos players some other viable options outside of the normal "Black Legion" list.

 

Sure replacing some Oblits with Predators may not seem like a huge change, but coupled with a few other seemingly minor changes and you might just have a new style of army.

[Redbaron997]

Your such a prophet, you sure your not a Word Bearers player?

[minigun762]

Your such a prophet, you sure your not a Word Bearers player?

 

In a past life yes, but the Iron Warriors have better toys :cuss

[chillin]

I look at it this way... I have a couple of preds, I see no reason to break them out and use them once in a while. Besides I like to expeirment with and trying new things to mix it up sometimes (this is a rather boring dex after all).

It's not like I'm trying to win "ard boyz or anything.

I have to say my TL'ed LC & HB pred has proved to be a pretty good "jack of all trades" unit (I was surprized actually).

Next I'll try AC & LC's pred.

Are eather one as "good" as X2 oblits ? Maybe not, but how many times can I run 2X2 oblits as my only HS choice ?