tahrikmili Posted October 4, 2009 Share Posted October 4, 2009 I tried to go through the probabilities myself but not being very good with the rules I wanted to check what you guys think: A Devastator squad with 3 MLs firing at an enemy MEQ or TEQ squad of 10. Should they use Frags or Kraks? Common sense says Kraks in both cases but my math suggests that Frags against MEQ have a higher number of probable wounds and are actually worth trying out. I realize this requires a couple of assumptions (how many enemies a Frag missile will cover etc.) but what do you think on the matter? Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/180454-missile-launchers-agains-meq-and-teq/ Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapter master 454 Posted October 4, 2009 Share Posted October 4, 2009 Well being a minor at mathhammer I don't mind doing this now and then. I prefer killhammer though. Anyway, lets just make some assumptions ok, lets average out the amount the frags hit at in total 9 ok, that 3 per blast. Thats on a good day so I did the maths and with frags on MEQs equals 1.485 losses. 3 kraks is 0.833. surprising, frags is better. If your referring to terminators then quite obvious the frags are superior if you can hit with them, the 2+ save just drops the krak into more greater margin of loss. Well thats an enlightening piece for me, never knew frags could do so well! Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/180454-missile-launchers-agains-meq-and-teq/#findComment-2136561 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brother_Kluft Posted October 4, 2009 Share Posted October 4, 2009 VS MEQ Krak Missile : 2/3 chance to hit x 5/6 chance to wound x 1/1 to bypass armour = 0.5555 kills Frag : To obtain 0.555 kills you would need 3 hits with the template, 3 hits x 1/2 chance to wound x 1/3 to bypass armor = 0.5 kills Conclusion Likelihood of getting three hits with template is slim, therefore Krack is better. [Exception : If unit is in cover Frag is much better] Vs TEQ Krak missle : 2/3 chance to hit x 5/6 chance to wound x 1/6 to bypass armour = 0.09 kills Frag missle : 1 hits x 1/2 wound x 1/6 to bypass armor = 0.0833, 2 hits x 1/2 wound x 1/6 to bypass armor = 0.1666 Conclusion Frag is always superior. Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/180454-missile-launchers-agains-meq-and-teq/#findComment-2136578 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Idaho Posted October 4, 2009 Share Posted October 4, 2009 Yeah I suffered like 16 wounds on 1 squad from a Devastator squad with MLs - there was only 5 of them and they all died! Thought by bunching up in cover the unit wouldn't have to worry about Krak missiles... Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/180454-missile-launchers-agains-meq-and-teq/#findComment-2136582 Share on other sites More sharing options...
tahrikmili Posted October 4, 2009 Author Share Posted October 4, 2009 So my math was correct, and it's even better against TEQ. Very enlightening for me. I wonder how many people were aware.. Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/180454-missile-launchers-agains-meq-and-teq/#findComment-2136590 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chengar Qordath Posted October 4, 2009 Share Posted October 4, 2009 Well being a minor at mathhammer I don't mind doing this now and then. I prefer killhammer though. Anyway, lets just make some assumptions ok, lets average out the amount the frags hit at in total 9 ok, that 3 per blast. Thats on a good day so I did the maths and with frags on MEQs equals 1.485 losses. 3 kraks is 0.833. surprising, frags is better. If your referring to terminators then quite obvious the frags are superior if you can hit with them, the 2+ save just drops the krak into more greater margin of loss. Well thats an enlightening piece for me, never knew frags could do so well! Several things wrong with that mathhammer. First off, your math on kraks is wrong; Brother_Kluft has it right with a single krak averaging .5555 kills, and thus three kraks getting 1.6667 kills. Also, assuming three models per frag is rather optimistic; even if the enemy is clustered up enough to get three models under the blast template, one still has to account for the vagaries of the scatter dice. Of course, scatter dice can't really be mathhammered since they're far too situational, but it's still a factor that needs to considered with frags. IMO, the frag vs. krak issue is one that can't be solved by pure mathhammer, because with any weapon that scatters the result is far too dependent upon the details of enemy deployment. Going off Kluft's mathhammer, frags are superior if you're reasonably certain a blast template will cover four MEQs or two TEQs. Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/180454-missile-launchers-agains-meq-and-teq/#findComment-2136607 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shiodome Posted October 4, 2009 Share Posted October 4, 2009 take into account that with krak when you miss you miss, but with frag when you miss, you often still hit something... though ofc this can't be 'mathhammered' Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/180454-missile-launchers-agains-meq-and-teq/#findComment-2136612 Share on other sites More sharing options...
glsn Posted October 4, 2009 Share Posted October 4, 2009 In a way, it can be mathhamered. You have 1/3 chance of rolling a "hit". Ballistic skill 4 means you minus four from the scatter, so 7/36 when you scatter you won't scatter. Assume you will put the disc in the center of the unit and then when you roll 10/36 (a 5 or a 6) you will likely hit something, (use this value as a 0.5 instead of a 2). Worked out this is (1/3 + 2/3*7/36)+(2/3*10/36). Keep the values seperate, then roll to wound and kill and add them at the end. So, 25/54 to hit dead on and 10/54 for a close miss. This is based on the law of averages, so of course it is only good as a base line. What it has come down to, in my experience, is if you are firing at a unit of 10+ use frag, especially if they are close together. If it is below 7 your pushing your luck with frag. Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/180454-missile-launchers-agains-meq-and-teq/#findComment-2136635 Share on other sites More sharing options...
pingo Posted October 4, 2009 Share Posted October 4, 2009 Frags can be mathhammered by just assuming a hit. A hit will be the mean of all possible scatters, unless my reasoning is out. Edit: Although... if you miss, you may not hit anything, or something else... I bet it can be approximated though. Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/180454-missile-launchers-agains-meq-and-teq/#findComment-2136709 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shiodome Posted October 4, 2009 Share Posted October 4, 2009 well the reason i said mathhammer can be useless is that you can scatter 8 inches and still hit something, often the same unit.whether you will or not well... that depends entirely on the situation. Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/180454-missile-launchers-agains-meq-and-teq/#findComment-2136731 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chengar Qordath Posted October 4, 2009 Share Posted October 4, 2009 well the reason i said mathhammer can be useless is that you can scatter 8 inches and still hit something, often the same unit.whether you will or not well... that depends entirely on the situation. Pretty much what my point was too on how scatter can't really be mathhammered; depending on where the blast template is placed and how the enemy is deployed a shot can scatter two inches and hit nothing, or scatter 8 inches and hit just as many models as if it were on target. You can try to come up with a reasonable guess as to an average results for scatter, but it's going to involve arbitrarily picked numbers rather than absolute mathematical certainty that you get with direct-fire weapons. Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/180454-missile-launchers-agains-meq-and-teq/#findComment-2136954 Share on other sites More sharing options...
greatcrusade08 Posted October 4, 2009 Share Posted October 4, 2009 Sometimes you lot can read far too much into a problem like this Worked out this is (1/3 + 2/3*7/36)+(2/3*10/36). when it comes down to this kinda math, your best off going for a lie down!, As for me i use my own experiences for deciding these things or failing that other peoples. oh look we have one here: Yeah I suffered like 16 wounds on 1 squad from a Devastator squad with MLs - there was only 5 of them and they all died! Thought by bunching up in cover the unit wouldn't have to worry about Krak missiles... And that didnt even take maths.. great innit?? Gc08 Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/180454-missile-launchers-agains-meq-and-teq/#findComment-2136987 Share on other sites More sharing options...
glsn Posted October 4, 2009 Share Posted October 4, 2009 I enjoy doing math and when I'm bored at work I've been known to run through entire armies figuring out what is best to target what with. Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/180454-missile-launchers-agains-meq-and-teq/#findComment-2137011 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chengar Qordath Posted October 5, 2009 Share Posted October 5, 2009 Sometimes you lot can read far too much into a problem like this Worked out this is (1/3 + 2/3*7/36)+(2/3*10/36). when it comes down to this kinda math, your best off going for a lie down!, As for me i use my own experiences for deciding these things or failing that other peoples. oh look we have one here: Yeah I suffered like 16 wounds on 1 squad from a Devastator squad with MLs - there was only 5 of them and they all died! Thought by bunching up in cover the unit wouldn't have to worry about Krak missiles... And that didnt even take maths.. great innit?? Gc08 Personal experience, especially like the example you cited of a one-time event, isn't the best way to judge the overall average effectiveness of any given piece of wargear; anyone familiar with the vagaries of the Dice Gods can tell you that. Everyone who plays the 40k long enough will have games where they can't roll anything better than a 1 (unless it's a leadership check) and games where half their dice up as sixes. Math hammering out the averages gets rid of the anomalies produced by the random chance that clutters personal experience. Of course, one of the issues with frags vs. kraks is that their effectiveness is so situational. Frag missiles are usually more effective against a squad that is clustered up than against one that's spread out (though not always; a spread out squad will still take hits from frags that would have scattered past a clustered one). Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/180454-missile-launchers-agains-meq-and-teq/#findComment-2137770 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Giga Posted October 5, 2009 Share Posted October 5, 2009 Well, the way I see it, unless the MEQ squad you're shooting at is in cover, the krak missiles are always better. Out of 4 krak missiles (one hitting on 2+ due to sergeant), at least 3 should hit and hopefully wound. So that's 3 saves on 4+ (if they're cover) or 3 automatic dead MEQ (if they aren't in cover). On the other hand, a frag missile will on average miss and scatter 3". With str4, it has very little chance it'll actually get many wounds going. MEQ squads are small, so a scattering small template can possibly hit only one, maybe two marines (or maybe none). Even if it hits, it's likely to get only 2-3 meq (unless your opponent is an idiot and bunches up his marines) so that's a very small number of wounds. Conclusion? Unless the MEQ squad you're shooting at is in the open and will gain no cover saves, it's best to use something else to shoot them, and use those missile launchers to pwn those rhinos and the like. :P Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/180454-missile-launchers-agains-meq-and-teq/#findComment-2138175 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paulochromis Posted October 5, 2009 Share Posted October 5, 2009 Personal experience, especially like the example you cited of a one-time event, isn't the best way to judge ... I agree wholeheartedly. Whilst acquiring personal experience is very useful the real problem with anecdotal evidence is the sample size (often just a simple example cited, with "opposite"/non-supportive examples being conveniently forgotten!). Cheers, Paul. Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/180454-missile-launchers-agains-meq-and-teq/#findComment-2138191 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shiodome Posted October 5, 2009 Share Posted October 5, 2009 especially when your anecdotal evidence claims that each frag missile killed 4 marines... which is a pretty useless example to base anything on. Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/180454-missile-launchers-agains-meq-and-teq/#findComment-2138232 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warp Angel Posted October 5, 2009 Share Posted October 5, 2009 For what it's worth, a Plasma Cannon (at least in tactical squads where it's points reasonable) does everything a krak missile does against infantry, but better, because there's no difference between TEQ and MEQ, and you get the blast benefit of frag. I honestly prefer different heavy support choices than Devs most of the time though, so take that for what it's worth. Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/180454-missile-launchers-agains-meq-and-teq/#findComment-2138251 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thantoes Posted October 5, 2009 Share Posted October 5, 2009 I generally prefer frag vs MEQ for the same reason I prefer flamers over plasma in an assault squad. You have a chance to cause more damage due to more wounds. Also, at least for me any ways, you have more chance of actually hitting something. Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/180454-missile-launchers-agains-meq-and-teq/#findComment-2138358 Share on other sites More sharing options...
minigun762 Posted October 5, 2009 Share Posted October 5, 2009 For what it's worth, a Plasma Cannon (at least in tactical squads where it's points reasonable) does everything a krak missile does against infantry, but better, because there's no difference between TEQ and MEQ, and you get the blast benefit of frag. I honestly prefer different heavy support choices than Devs most of the time though, so take that for what it's worth. Yeah I really feel that (against infantry/MCs) the Plasma Cannon has taken the role of the Missile Launcher, especially in Tactical squads where its only 5 points more. Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/180454-missile-launchers-agains-meq-and-teq/#findComment-2138364 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Giga Posted October 5, 2009 Share Posted October 5, 2009 Speaking of the plasma cannon, I think it's the absolute best weapon you can give to an objective-camping tac squad. Hell, even if you aren't gonna do much objective camping with it, the plasma cannon is still so cheap that it doesn't matter if you don't make full use of it. On the other hand, that single - almost always overlooked by the enemy - plasma cannon in your army is a quite powerful asset. Even if your opponent gets cover saves against it, it's still very likely to pay for its points. Not to mention you can use it to pop light vehicles and even wound MCs. Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/180454-missile-launchers-agains-meq-and-teq/#findComment-2138464 Share on other sites More sharing options...
tahrikmili Posted October 5, 2009 Author Share Posted October 5, 2009 I field 2 Dev squads.. one with 3 MLs and one with 3 PCs. I love them. Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/180454-missile-launchers-agains-meq-and-teq/#findComment-2138485 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warp Angel Posted October 5, 2009 Share Posted October 5, 2009 I field 2 Dev squads.. one with 3 MLs and one with 3 PCs. I love them. How large are the squads in terms of total Marines? Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/180454-missile-launchers-agains-meq-and-teq/#findComment-2138497 Share on other sites More sharing options...
tahrikmili Posted October 5, 2009 Author Share Posted October 5, 2009 How large are the squads in terms of total Marines? 5 Each with Razorbacks with Twin-Lascannons (which I have yet to buy :P) If I could spare the points (and money) I would also use a 5 man Devastator Squad with 3 Multi-Meltas in a Drop Pod too. I'm crazy like that. :) Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/180454-missile-launchers-agains-meq-and-teq/#findComment-2138510 Share on other sites More sharing options...
greatcrusade08 Posted October 5, 2009 Share Posted October 5, 2009 Personal experience, especially like the example you cited of a one-time event, isn't the best way to judge the overall average effectiveness of any given piece of wargear; anyone familiar with the vagaries of the Dice Gods can tell you that. Everyone who plays the 40k long enough will have games where they can't roll anything better than a 1 (unless it's a leadership check) and games where half their dice up as sixes. Math hammering out the averages gets rid of the anomalies produced by the random chance that clutters personal experience. whilst i understand this point i prefer the reverse argument that you cannot use averages to calculate what is a truelly random event.. dice rolling Mathhammer only truelly works when your rolling vast numbers of dice and can hit the 'bell curve', when you only rolling a few... forget it, its all 'luck' I often find if a person plays enough games, experiences are the best source of education for list building and tactics. Gc08 Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/180454-missile-launchers-agains-meq-and-teq/#findComment-2138562 Share on other sites More sharing options...
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