Mathhammering GHs upgrades

[Chalx the grey]

Hi all,

 

I'm sure I was not the only one having nightmares with the question: "If I could only take a single upgrade to my GH squads, which one should it be?"

 

Gather around brothers, as the runepriest of my great company has seen the answer in the eye of a kraken and it is quite clear: MotW all around!!!

I will not go into all the combinations as it would be boring but we'll see the numbers against meq's (just in case anyone wantss to review my maths) and then you'll have to trust the rest.

 

The MotW gets 1 + D6 attacks base, plus charge bonus. D6 has a mean value of 3.5 attacks. Based on this assumption:

 

Assault or successful countercharge:

PF - 2 attacks, 1 hit, 0.833 wound, no saves.

PW - 3 attacks, 1.5 hit, 0.75 wound, no saves.

MotW - 5.5 attacks, 2.75 hit, 0.458 rend (no saves) + 0.917 hit and 0.306 MEQ fails 3+ save = 0.764 wounds.

 

2nd combat phase or unsuccessful CC

PF - 1 attack, 0.5 hit, 0.417 wound, no saves.

PW - 2 attacks, 1 hit, 0.5 wound, no saves.

MotW - 4.5 attacks, 2.25 hit, 0.375 rend (no saves) + 0.75 hit and 0.25 MEQ fails 3+ save = 0.625 wounds.

 

Now it would appear that the PF is best in assault/counterassault but if you consider the 25/15 point ratio between PF and PW/MotW then BOTH PF and PW become more cost-effective.

 

For all the rest of possiblities of armour/toughness, the thing is as follows:

 

- T3 - PW is the winner for 2+ save, followed by PF (only if assaulting), then MotW. For anything 3+ or lower, MotW is better both in assault and next phases. Not many models with T3 and 2+ save I think.

 

- T4 - For 2+ save models (terminators) the PF wins in assault, then PW then MotW. In next phases the PW and MotW tie at 0.5 wounds, followed by the PF. The PF still wins for 3+ only when assaulting, otherwise MotW wins... and for 4+ or less, MotW is better.

 

- T5 and higher - When assaulting the PF has an easy win, and the PW loses to MotW. But for subsequent phases, the MotW is actually better than a PF, except for T6!!!

 

If again we consider the point ratio between PF and MotW, the PF only wins (by a minimum margin) for T5 and T6 when assaulting, in ALL other cases the MotW is more cost-effective.

 

Granted, the PF wins also if you are facing dreads (33% chance of a penetrating hit in assault, 17% afterwards) and instakills characters, but anyhow chances of actually killing the dread in the first phase are slim (11%) and afterwards... yeah, good luck with your 1 PF attack.

 

To sum up, for general purpose, I think the MotW is the best upgrade, specially for low points games. It is also by far the best choice against hordes, and still fares better than a PW against MEQs, unless you are facing terminators (which will eat up your GHs for dinner in assault anyway). Taking point costs under consideration the choice is even clearer to me. Considering the basic 10 man GH, which should avoid combat against MC and characters most of the time if unsupported, the MotW should be a standard. I also like the fact that it is an exclusive wolfy upgrade!!!

 

Enough of this already, my ale is getting hot! I hope you find the analysis useful, it sure was for me that's why I posted! Comments (or corrections to my maths, if need be) are more than welcome of course.

 

Cheers

[Vilhelm]

Good analysis! I'm a big believer in the Mark, and I've been working on converting some old Wulfen models for that purpose.

 

In my first game with the new Dex, a Marked Skyclaw was the MVP- (along with a melta gun-toting wolf scouts. Rolling a "6" two rounds in a row didn't hurt... :D

 

I doubt anyone will be leaving home without the Mark of Wulfen.

[BDS]

Seing as how you can take PW and MoW for 30pts versus a single attack PF for 25pts, I would opt to spend the 30pts for assaulty units and 15 MoW for objective holders.

 

The MoW is a bit more of a stand out choice, IMO. It is harder to calculate but you have the potential to roll a small handful of 6's and steal the show. The PF will always have the same output.

 

In my last test game a MoW scout penned a defiler, survived, went on to pen a CSM dred, survived, wounded a nurgle DP, and survived (he had help in this last one). Mathhammer or no, my PF's have never produced like that.

 

BDS

[Grey Mage]

I wont take MotW often. It doesnt feel right.

 

Were not Blood Angels, were space wolves. The MotW isnt an honor badge, its a scar from an extended moment of weakness, and a warning sign that you may soon be damned.

 

Did the 13nth company embrace their MotW? No, they Held it at bay for Ten Thousand Years.

 

From a purely rules point of veiw, while MotW may provide a statisticly higher average on attacks the Powerfist is more reliable- IE you know exactly how many attacks your starting with, you know what your chances are.

[Chalx the grey]

I've always loved powerfists but being nerfed in 5th AND with the cost increase to a whooping 25 points, I will be leaving it to the WG, which also only pays 20 points for it!! If the PF still was 15 points I wouldn't consider it any further, but 25 is too much... I am very reluctant even to give one to skyclaws and swiftclaws, that get +2 attack on the charge!

[Ragnars Claw]

Hmmm i did math hammer it and i came to the conclusion that power weapon was better than motw against MEQ's. Not sure how, maybe i messed up somewhere!

[Chalx the grey]

Ragnar, did you assume 4.5 attacks base for the MotW? Otherwise I reviewed the MEQ maths once again and I come to the same conclusion as the first post: PW is worse except against terminators! Anyway if you want to consistently win assault against MEQs, better get both :)

[Morticon]

I wont take MotW often. It doesnt feel right.

 

Were not Blood Angels, were space wolves....

 

 

Can I take yours? :)