The truth about Deep Striking

[OIF Knight]

After reading a few recent posts re: deep striking, and the best way to ensure your units not only survive DS but land in a position where they can be of use, I wanted to add some of my own insight.

 

First off, I recently read a lengthy dissertation on calculating risk involved with deep striking. Personally, I used to admonish all forms of deep strike unless it I was dealing with my drop pods. I was simply convinced that the risk far outweighed the benefit of landing a few terminators near a desired spot. I was too afraid of losing ~200 pts to chance.

 

However, when I read about and applied some Mathhammer to deep strike, it occured that deep striking without beacons or homers was actually reliable.

 

My main problem with deep striking was, as SM, in order to make it truly work, you had to depend on either a Tac squad with beacon (which to me seems mis-played, since Tac Squads can be difficult/dangerous to manuever around to a desired deep strike point) or a scout bike squad with a locator (which took up a precious (in my opinion) FA slot)

 

I hate relying on a tac squad to do anything except provide a reliable, cheap base of fire or OBJ camper. I also hate spending points on a unit like scout bikes when all I expect them to do is drop in termies 'risk free' (which is still a gamble if you choose the wrong place to land them). It also takes up a FA slot which (in my opinion) is one of the slots where SM makes their money.

 

This being said, if I am going to deep strike something other than a Pod, I simply land it, no beacons, no homers. Instead, doing some quick 'rough' calculations (as the exact math takes longer than my opponent is typically willing to wait) is usually suitable to determine where exactly a unit should DS in.

 

Without getting into too much detail (if you want the full article, let me know, I would be happy to provide it) this is how it should be calculated:

 

First off, you have to understand how DS can be risky. There are multiple forms here: either you land too far from your objective or you land too close to an enemy (1"). We should also consider landing into dangerous terrain, etc but it applies all the same. Now, DS uses both DISTANCE and DIRECTION, so these are 2 possibe realms which could cause a failed DS and ergo rolling on the mishap chart.

 

DIRECTION- Think of this as a 360 degree circle, with your intended target point in the middle. Now, the risk of scattering in a certain diretion is relative to the size Arc that a possible threat exists in, in relation to you DS point.

 

Ex. You want to land 5 termies near a Predator. The Predator's threat arc covers (approx) 90 degrees of the target points arc of sight relative to your determined drop point. Therefore, 25% of the time you run the risk of rolling an arrow that will point you toward the Predator.

 

Not taking into account distance at this point, 25% of the time you run the risk of somehow hitting the Predator. Naturally, not many things take up a 90 arc of threat to your DS point, so that is overstated, but convenient for my example. You can get more complex by adding more threat arcs into the scenario, for instance an enemy unit to one side and a mountain to another. This would simply increase the % risk of rolling an arrow that would take you into a situation that would make you roll on the mishap chart. Simply add these % risks together to get your sum of directional risk. Although, always remember you have a 1/3 chance of rolling a 'hit', in which case this article will be useless :)

 

DISTANCE- The second part of determining deep strike risk. Now that we have a theoretical risk for rolling a DIRECTION that will make us mishap, direction will determine whether or not we actually mishap or not. Remember, you mishap at within 1" of an enemy. So, lets say you want to land at least 10" from the Predator exactly. Whats the chanace of rolling a 10 or higher on 2D6? At the same time, whats the risk of rolling a combined 9" which will bring us into mishap range of the Predator? These are all easily determined statistics.

 

Even more so, lets assume you want to land an MG near that Predator, within melta range (6"). Assuming your drop point is exactly 6" from the Predator, whats the probability of dropping between 0" (hit) and 5" (mishap range or out of melta range)? That risk is relatively high on a 2D6.

 

Again, this is a quick and dirty insight on deep striking, dealing moreso with how to determine where and when to deep strike, as opposed to what and when to deep strike. Personally, seeing the math written out helps me play the game a little more confidently, but then again, everything is left to chance when rolling dice :).

 

If you have any questions or insights please let me know, may sound confusing, but if you water down the math the conceptual theory should convince you that deep striking is relatively safer than most would immediately perceive :)

[OIF Knight]

Here is an example of how the math works out:

 

Three Obstacles:

 

An enemy squad is 5" away from the deep striking unit, covering an angle of 60 degrees relative to the DS point. An enemy vehicle is 9" away from the unit covering and angle of 30 degrees. A mountain (impassable) is 6" from the unit, covering an angel of 45 degrees.

 

The risk of rolling on the mishap chart would be calculated by summing all three of the total risks in the situations above. Remember, we will calculate the risk of hitting the enemy troops at 1" lower than the stated distance to the enemy, since within 1" of an enemy makes us roll on the MH chart.

 

This is assuming we deep strike to within mishap-roll range of the enemy, not out of weapon/assault range.

 

(55.6% * 1/6) + (18.5% * 1/12) + (48.1% * 1/8) = 16.8%

 

So, about 17% of the time, you will be forced to roll on the mishap chart, possibly losing the unit altogether...

[Bartali]

I normaly work out where to DS from a rough glance at the board, and it usually easy enough to work out where the safe spots are. However, should I want to be a bit more accurate, are we allowed to measure before determining DS entry point ?

 

Something else I'd like to try is using DS to castle on an objective. I haven't got the rule book handy, would landing within 1" or on top of a friendly squad cause a mishap ?

[Corpse.]

Daemon/Chaos Termicide player here.

 

Calculated safe distance is 8" from the enemy with the starting model. If you only plan on having one unit as your target, then that means the total degrees angle of the width of that unit, starting from the closest models from where you decide to start the deep strike before scatter rolls makes the distance.

 

If its a mere 5 degrees, single model within 12"(max scatter distance), from the center point to 12" out 15 degrees becomes roughly 4" danger zone at worst. Couple in the 2/3rd scatter chance, and its relatively low. The problem is scattering away at that point, or having the opponent move away or even get hidden behind a vehicle. So you have to cut inches off to be closer.

 

We jump into melee or shooty categories here. If your shooty your better off cutting off your thumb then deep striking them. In all seriousness, if your not chaos, walk up your shooty terminators. (It really is not worth it)

 

If your melee though, and prefer 5 more terminators then having a transport of near same value. Then yes, deep strike is an option. The squad is large with 40mm bases 1"&3/5ths is the imperial version. When you have three whole 40mm bases sitting out, with a small bit of the bases fit snug like a stack of logs you lose about 8-10mm. So having 20mm from the absolute center point, stacking a 40mm, then 30mm with the third ring of models you end up with 90mm (almost 4 inches) from the center point. This is both a blessing and a curse.

 

So if you were to set the center point exactly 12" away, you would be 8" from the enemy if you rolled a hit. So here's how I propose the best value of a wide deep strike unit like 15-20 daemons, or 10 terminators. Set up 10" away if the unit is wide. 8" if the unit is not wide. So with the edge of the model being the point from which you measure the scatter distance, its added the 20mm since because of the circular shape of the base, and being 40mm wide you add 20mm to the center point of any which way you scatter.

 

So when you scatter 12", your scattering 12" and 20mm. A smaller base of 25mm would be 12.5mm+2D6".

 

The reason I say shooty is pointless, is because loyalist terminators shortest range weapon (the only one) is the heavy flamer, the rest are 24-48 inches. And you can start shooting on turn 1, without having to wait for the average turn of 3 to arrive. Land raiders offer a good assault value of being able to get there and get the charge bonus while stopping incoming fire from dwindling your numbers at the weakness of having the tank destroyed before arriving. So with all things considered, its safer in most occasions to forgo the land raider for numbers if you run melee terminators.

 

Now for a counter-balance. You can RUN after you deep strike (Run means no shooting, yet another bane of deep striking shooty terminators and being hit with demolisher cannons/plasma cannons etc).

 

 

You run an average of 3", 3.5 if you want to get technical but there is no 3.5 result on a D6. 2D6 averages a 7, 1+6, 2+5, 3+4 and the other way around. Halved per dice at 3.5. To scatter 3" and potentially get closer to the enemy with that 3", is very handy to counter balance a bad scatter away.

 

So when you start 10" away, scatter 12" perfectly away from the enemy, you get +4" closer with the 3 circles of the unit around the model, and then run 3" closer. Starting 22" you've negated down to 15", which means any scatter of 9" away you can still get into assault the turn after deep striking. The chances of rolling a perfect scatter away+ a result of 10, 11 or 12, added chances of scattering directly at the enemy 7" and putting the extra 3 models (a circle around one model is 6, and the other three on the opposite side away from the enemy you just scattered close to) is also a low chance. Making a 10 terminator 40mm base unit 10" distance from the base edge the best result.

 

I may seem scattered with this but I don't feel like dragging out all the mundane minor calculations to explain it properly. Having to consider three circumferences (scatter dice random direction to the enemy, away from the enemy and the size of the unit+base sizes) I really hope you just trust me on that part.

[JamesI]

How often do mishaps happen any way? Only if someone places badly, and only 1/3 mishaps equals dead anymore.

 

Deep strike isn't that scary. I've seen one mishap in the last thirty or so games I've played, and that just caused a terminator unit to land in the opposite corner of the board from where the player wanted them.

[Warp Angel]

This all assumes that your deep strike scatter dice work for you.

 

Mine NEVER have. Really.

 

I have lost more terminators in 4th ed to deep strike mishaps than enemy action. In 5th, I haven't lost nearly as many, but it's still bad. And when I do land, I land outside of that 8" radius where I want to be.

 

To put things in perspective, in a recent planetstrike game, I completely failed to get the template hole to land on a skyshield landing platform in six attempts. This is typical of my rolling.

[OIF Knight]

All great points above. My original post did not focus of things like deep striking out of range for follow on assaulting, shooting, etc., nor did it take into account running. I was simply trying to illustrate the point that all of this talk about NEEDING to take homers/beacons and dedicating rather pricey units to utilizing them can weaken an army. It also explained the 'worst case' scenario of deep striking, that being having to roll on the mishap chart and losing your squad altogether. This is one of the primary reasons why I, and several players I know, typically would dedicate beacons and homers to DS units.

 

IT does take into account a lot of good dice rolling, as Warp Angel pointed out, and if your scatter rolling is terribad, then this discussion probably won't help much.

 

Lately I have been experimenting with deep striking units (both IG and SM) into 'emergency situations'. Example- I recently tried to DS Vanguards using heroic intervention. Did the math in my head quickly and, would you know, rolled a hit for scattering. Assuming I wasn't going to roll a hit, Simply estimate the enemy frontage and your desired 'too close' or 'too far' ranges, then proceed. Regardless of the hit, I like the idea of heroic intervention, however its most fun to pull it off in a crowded environment where their glorious landing and charge can really cause a spectacle. The two biggest concerns when using HI is scattering into the enemy or too far away from them. Most of the time I see people, and myself occasionally, look at a scene and refuse to DS thinking its far too risky given the volume of units. But, if you use the Mathhammer to analyze it, the DS might be very possible to pull off; and I have been in situations where if an opponent had decided to DS into a spot he didn't for those reasons, it would have been devastating to me.

 

Anyway, if this is helpful to at least 1 person out there, great. Just a way to illustrate that DS isn't the beast it seems, and when used often enough, can be a game winner. This just gives you some tools to figure out how to get it done :woot: