Wolf lord thunder!

[timtim9990]

Which kit is better?

 

TH/SS

 

orrrr

 

Frostblade/BP

[Valerian]

Which kit is better?

 

TH/SS

 

orrrr

 

Frostblade/BP

 

Better for what?

[Coverfire]

For a Wolf Lord?

 

Frostblade and Boltpistol or Stormshield. Take advantage of his I5 and you can have a Wolf Guard with a TH/SS in the squad for tank and beast squishing...

 

Hell, put him in a squad with Arjac Rockfist!

[timtim9990]

Just in general

[Ullr Direfang]

....well:

 

TH/SS for IC or big thing hunting

 

FB/BP or BP is better for troop like troop hunting (this is what my lord does)

[Evilmerlin]

Or just take a Wolf Claw.

[bravelybravesirrobin]

Wolf claw storm shield is probably the best kit mathematically if you want to preserve your init5, and you should.

 

But it looks stupid as hell. Replace the claw with a "counts as" flail.

 

FB/BP is the cheapie option but it is good. Especially on a Thunder Wolf.

[nurglespuss]

I take Frost axe & Storm Shield - Extra strength, keeps initiative, inv save.

 

I really don't understand this single wolf claw thing...

[Thorgad]

I take Frost axe & Storm Shield - Extra strength, keeps initiative, inv save.

 

I really don't understand this single wolf claw thing...

 

Doing the mathhammer, a lord equipped with a Thunderwolf Mount, Wolftooth Necklace and two Wolfclaws will statistically get 3,56 wounds in on a Space Marine, while a Thunderwolf Mounted, Frostblade/BP and WTN equipped lord will do 3,3 wounds.

If you give him a Wolfclaw/Stormshield combo, he'll get in 2,9 wounds, and with a Frostblade/Stormshield combo, he'll get in 2,75 wounds. So statistically speaking, the one Wolfclaw is actually better versus anything that is not toughness 7, where the Frostblade/Stormshield does 1,089 wounds, and the Wolfclaw/Stormshield does 1,0083 wounds. Versus something with toughness 8 though, the Wolfclaw/Stormshield is actually superior again, doing 1,0083 wounds against the Frostblade/Stormshield which only does 0,55 wounds.

 

Of course, the Frostblade lets you damage dreadnoughts and other vehicles, and insta-kills toughness 3 folk, but the Wolfclaw is still way better versus most things.

[nurglespuss]

A pair of wolf claws fair enough, but I'm not sure a single wolf claw would be that effective.. and (as much as I appreciate it!) math hammer doesn't work :tu:

 

Ideally I would go with maximum number of attacks + hoghest strength possible + highest initiative possible - Best save possible.

[ahorsecalledwar]

be a real devil i gave my wolf lord twin claws and belt o russ and stuck him with the blood claws with a TH/SS wg. Never lets me down and befor u say about the +4 25 point belt (or round abouts) its saved my neck more that once. If you also give your lord the saga of warrior born you end up turning your wolf lord into a highley effective killing machine.

I tried the same comebo with the TH/SS and altho i had more points to spare he was getting hit more and killing less.

[Ullr Direfang]

the only reason i suggest the BP is because it allows for some ranged damage to be done and gives the extra attack. and i also tend to run a WGBL with twin claws, and he does well.

 

I am also a fan of the Belt of Russ. and yes i unde.or 5 points more i get a 3+ invul. but i tend to take saga of the warrior born and want to maximize my attacks,

[Thorgad]

A pair of wolf claws fair enough, but I'm not sure a single wolf claw would be that effective.. and (as much as I appreciate it!) math hammer doesn't work :lol:

 

Ideally I would go with maximum number of attacks + hoghest strength possible + highest initiative possible - Best save possible.

 

I actually find mathhammer to be fairly accurate in the long run. Of course there'll be times when your results will be skewed, but over a long enough period of time, it fits.

 

I could show you the calculations, if you want?

[nurglespuss]

It depends on which statistics engine you based it off, problem is that any calculations will be impossibly innacurate, no matter what tiem scale you follow (these kind of predictions always are by their very nature), its why dice rolls are used in these games, its as random a result as you can get, while still increasing percentage chance, however there is no statistical gurantee that said percentage chance will apply to the overall result and no causal link between results or predicted results. So in essence, math-hammer is impossible, if it worked, some people would be very rich from placing bets on the right horses :lol:

[Evilmerlin]

Can't we just boil down the reason to taking Wolf Claws or Frost Blades to whether you like re-rolls or not?

 

Me? I like re-rolls. :P

[bravelybravesirrobin]

It depends on which statistics engine you based it off, problem is that any calculations will be impossibly innacurate, no matter what tiem scale you follow (these kind of predictions always are by their very nature), its why dice rolls are used in these games, its as random a result as you can get, while still increasing percentage chance, however there is no statistical gurantee that said percentage chance will apply to the overall result and no causal link between results or predicted results. So in essence, math-hammer is impossible, if it worked, some people would be very rich from placing bets on the right horses :lol:

 

That makes no sense whatsoever.

 

Statistics is impossible? I think the fact that people do indeed get very rich by betting on the right horses (or the stock exchange, etc) proves that statistics has some value.

 

As you increase the range of possible results so the overall result will trend towards a statistical average. With a small sample range the results could be widely skewed but with a sample range of a billion although you might expect some skewing you are going to be much closer to your predicted average.

 

Anyway back on topic.

 

A pair of wolfclaws is the best possible kit you can give a character for dealing damage. Statistically the claws will kill more T3-6 bodies than the frostblade will, this works for both the standard lord and a thunderlord.

 

However a frostblade and a bolt pistol will give you a similar result for much cheaper making it a bargain. If you want pure aggression twin claws is better but fb/bp is better point for point.

 

If you want to add the stormshield though you lose an attack either way but now because your single wolfclaw is much cheaper than the pair wc/ss is closer in price to the fb/ss enough that the damage per point is roughly equal.

 

So your best build options are

 

twin claws

frostblade and bolt pistol

claw and storm shield

 

claw and boltpistol or frostblade and stormshield are just silly. Although if you are on a thunderwolf the frostblade and stormshield does have the advantage of glancing AV12 vehicles and instakilling T3 which makes it comparable to the claw again.

[nurglespuss]

As you increase the range of possible results so the overall result will trend towards a statistical average. With a small sample range the results could be widely skewed but with a sample range of a billion although you might expect some skewing you are going to be much closer to your predicted average.

 

LOL thats a classic misconception. You can apply tht only to expected results, or non-random encounters etc. Where results are random (i.e. every, single, dice roll) statistics are of little value, because however clever the 'math' the result will still be random, completely random.

[Grey Mage]

I like my I 5 attacks- so Id go with 2x LC, TDA, Saga of the Warrior Born- 195pts. But thats actually my stand-in WGBL.

 

Because I play Bjorn Stormwolfs Great Company, and the ol man is armed with a Frost Blade and a Plasmapistol, Artificer armor, a WTT, Meltabombs, and a Belt of Russ.

 

He doesnt take the field in small battles though.

[bravelybravesirrobin]

As you increase the range of possible results so the overall result will trend towards a statistical average. With a small sample range the results could be widely skewed but with a sample range of a billion although you might expect some skewing you are going to be much closer to your predicted average.

 

LOL thats a classic misconception. You can apply tht only to expected results, or non-random encounters etc. Where results are random (i.e. every, single, dice roll) statistics are of little value, because however clever the 'math' the result will still be random, completely random.

 

It isn't completely random at all because it has a limited possible number of outcomes that are affected by rules in the game.

 

for example twin-linking increases your odds of hitting. 2 dice are no more likely to roll a 3+ than one dice but you only roll the second dice on condition that you didn't roll a 3+ the first time.

 

similarly flipping a coin and expecting it to land heads 100 times out of a hundred flips isn't a 50/50 although each individual coin flip is because its conditional that every flip out of those is successively a head. I have a 50/50 chance on my first flip but since I eliminate all runs that don&t land heads up I reduce my odds by 50% each time. Technically on paper every coin flip is 50/50 but we've added an element of human observation that doesn't change the nature of the coin but changes the nature of the observed outcome and thus the probability of that outcome.

 

situations in 40k are also conditional, if I roll this many dice then I expect this many to hit, this many to wound and this many to get through armour. Each individual dice is a 1/6 but the sequence 4+, 4+, 2- isn't 1/6 it's 3/6 3/6 2/6 or 8/18 or 4/9 slightly more expected than a 1/6 chance.

[nurglespuss]

similarly flipping a coin and expecting it to land heads 100 times out of a hundred flips isn't a 50/50 although each individual coin flip is because its conditional that every flip out of those is successively a head. I have a 50/50 chance on my first flip but since I eliminate all runs that don&t land heads up I reduce my odds by 50% each time. Technically on paper every coin flip is 50/50 but we've added an element of human observation that doesn't change the nature of the coin but changes the nature of the observed outcome and thus the probability of that outcome.

 

Again a misconception, statisitically its a 50/50 chance every flip, and this does not change, in 100 flips there is no way of predicting the result, its completely random.

 

situations in 40k are also conditional, if I roll this many dice then I expect this many to hit, this many to wound and this many to get through armour. Each individual dice is a 1/6 but the sequence 4+, 4+, 2- isn't 1/6 it's 3/6 3/6 2/6 or 8/18 or 4/9 slightly more expected than a 1/6 chance.

 

And again, no, Its a 1/6, the previous results have no bearing on the following results, put in black and white terms, you could roll a '1' 6 times in a row, and the chances of rolling a '1' the next time are exactly the same. These results do not stack, and its why math-hammer doesn't work, because its based on bad math. There are statistical engines out there (SPSS is a really basic model) that can help in producing predictive outcomes, base on % chance of 'predictable' outcomes ONLY.

 

for example twin-linking increases your odds of hitting. 2 dice are no more likely to roll a 3+ than one dice but you only roll the second dice on condition that you didn't roll a 3+ the first time.

 

This bit though, your starting to make sense; giving an extra roll does increase the posibility of gaining 'x' result, but not the probability.

[bravelybravesirrobin]

[

 

for example twin-linking increases your odds of hitting. 2 dice are no more likely to roll a 3+ than one dice but you only roll the second dice on condition that you didn't roll a 3+ the first time.

 

This bit though, your starting to make sense; giving an extra roll does increase the posibility of gaining 'x' result, but not the probability.

 

I'm sorry define the difference for me between possibility and probability. I'm sure there is one but I'm no mathematician and I don't get what it is.

 

Look, mathhammer just needs the following to be true to work.

 

1. a dice in 40k is always equally probable of generating a number between 1 and 6.

 

2. but in 40k and mathhammer we seek out results that have a range not specific numbers i.e. your possibilities, I guess?. I want to hit and that to hit roll has a number attached to it.

 

3. A Space marine hits on a 3+, an ork on a 5+. There is a greater range of possibilities that the marine will hit then the ork so the marine has a higher probability of hitting with his gun (2/3 as opposed to 1/3)

 

4. The more dice I roll the more dice I will generate that match that possible result. If I roll 30 dice I can potentially hit 30 times but I am only likely to hit 2/3 of the time since 2/3rds of my possible outcomes will match the possibility I desire.

 

5. Similarly twin-linking or re-rolls increase my chances of getting the result I desire. If I only want 1 4+ and am able to roll 2 dice then my odds of getting a 4+ are higher than if I only roll one dice.

 

 

If all these 5 points are true then i don't see why mathhammer is not a useful tool.

 

And whilst anecdotal evidence isn't I've found mathhammer to be a useful tool for me. I know from using it that a 10 man marine unit is likely to beat my trukk mob in cc if they get the charge on me even though I roll more dice than them. From tabletop experience I know this to be true. Am I just precognitive?

[nurglespuss]

I'm sorry define the difference for me between possibility and probability. I'm sure there is one but I'm no mathematician and I don't get what it is.

 

That being the issue :)

 

3. A Space marine hits on a 3+, an ork on a 5+. There is a greater range of possibilities that the marine will hit then the ork so the marine has a higher probability of hitting with his gun (2/3 as opposed to 1/3)

 

OK I'm not going to delve into this too much, because its not the easiest concept to grasp (especially in 'text').

 

3. A Space marine hits on a 3+, an ork on a 5+. There is a greater range of PROBABILITY that the marine will hit then the ork so the marine has a higher POSSIBILITY of hitting with his gun (3/6 as opposed to 2/6) -- you don't reduce ratios on random returns.

[merlonc]

I'm sorry define the difference for me between possibility and probability. I'm sure there is one but I'm no mathematician and I don't get what it is.

 

You can start here http://www.stats.gla.ac.uk/steps/glossary/probability.html to get a better understanding of possibility and probability in a statistical model.

[nurglespuss]

good man Merlonc :D

[Grey Mage]

Basicly when you roll your 48 attacks for 12 bloodclaws charging its possible that youll kill 48 enemy models, 0 enemy models, or anything in between.

 

Statistics on the other hand are used to show you the average, "most likely" outcome. The "mean" if you will.

 

There *should* be a percent deviation accompanying any set of statistics- ie, the average amount the statistic is incorrect, wich in turn can be used to give you a better feel for the range of "likely" results.

 

I find that in things like wargames they are good at giving you a general idea, but are from from the last word on the issue.