Wolf Claw vs. Frost Blade

[imperious]

So I was bored during my office hours today and started crunching some numbers (I know, I was bored so I decided to do math. Consummate nerd :)) comparing a single wolf claw vs. a frost blade on a Wolf Guard Terminator. I was a little surprised, but it seems that the wolf claw wins out against almost everything, though admittedly not by much. However, considering that it's cheaper, this seems kind of significant.

 

I wanted to have a discussion on this to see what the community's consensus is, and my search fu turned up empty handed. Has anyone else come to this conclusion? Which one do you prefer? All input is welcome, I think we all realize the limits of math hammer, so please lets not limit this to number only.

[Hfran Morkai]

For my terminators I like the look of single claw and storm bolter whereas on power armoured wolf guard I prefer the look of a frost blade over a single wolf claw (keep putting lightning! Grrr!) and I also love the idea of strength five, it appeals to me.

[DapperDave]

Just curious, how's the math look when you're comparing the two on a thunder wolf (so S6 vs S5)?

[RedMoon]

i have to say im a big fan of a wolf claw and storm shield on my terminators. They hit fast and hard and then my lord with a thunderhammer mops up what ever is left.

[Grey Mage]

Actually the higher the strength the more likely the WC is to win out DapperDave as a reroll becomes even more "effective" with a higher probability of making the roll.

 

In any case the Frostblade wins out, in my opinion because 1) while the frost axe is more expensive by itself the WC requires a second WC to gain an extra attack. 2) Str 5 can hurt T 8, Str 4 cant. 3) I enjoy the nature of Frostblades in the fluff.

 

The first point can be expanded on to say that while sure, 1 WC is 20pts, 2 is 40pts..... while a Frostblade is a mere 25pts *assuming HQ here* thats a GHs worth of savings on the extra attack. So, since I value volume of attacks atleast as highly as I do effectiveness of attacks on my HQs, I will run a Frostblade as often as WCs.

[imperious]

I agrea, in PA it's the frost blade always. But for WG Terminators what do you take? I have been taking frost blades but I may switch to WC and storm bolter or storm shield now.

[Grey Mage]

I agrea, in PA it's the frost blade always. But for WG Terminators what do you take? I have been taking frost blades but I may switch to WC and storm bolter or storm shield now.

Few, if any, WG get Frostblade- this is partially because I have an older collection and so have only 2 Frostblade TDA models- and they are both old WGBLs, one of whom as an assault cannon.

 

In fact, Id venture so far as to say that 40% of my TDA cant be used as is... because they have heavy weapons on them *sighs*.

 

For the TDA what I WOULD take would likely be WCs, Stormshields+ WC or PF, Heavy Weapon+WC... etc. I see WCs as a "TDA kinda weapon" in that the fists are already about the right size :nuke:.

 

I also hate that SS+PW would be incredibly fluffy, yet is out and out trounced in most ways by SS+WC. Atleast in the wolf codex its not the same price like it is for C:SM.

[Wispy]

Frostblades are cheaper and more versatile, and help keep the cost of an already expensive HQ down.

 

From some previous mathhammerings posted, the two lightning claws get a slight edge in pure wounds dealt, but I'd happily take the Frost blade over it..

[imperious]

Well, for PA models, I agree. That point has been discussed, and frost blades are superior because they can be used with a pistol. Terminators, however, don't have the option for a pistol, and the wolf claws are much cheaper. So which do you take on your terminators?

[Wispy]

Dual WC, without a question. A bargain at 15 points.

[Valerian]

Well, for PA models, I agree. That point has been discussed, and frost blades are superior because they can be used with a pistol. Terminators, however, don't have the option for a pistol, and the wolf claws are much cheaper. So which do you take on your terminators?

 

There are so many ways to build an effective unit, and it does depend on what you want to do with them. Because you will likely include at least one high-strength close combat weapon in the unit, you don't really need the Frost Blades for their S5, and can go with mostly Wolf Claws as your standard kit.

 

Here are some things that I like:

 

1. Guard with Heavy Weapon (Assault Cannon or Cyclone Missile Launcher), and High Strength SCCW (Chain Fist or Thunder Hammer). CF if you expect tanks, TH if you expect Monstrous Creatures.

 

2. Guard with Storm Shield and Power Weapon. This guy is assigned Melta Gun and Lascannon shots; his SS helps him survive, he protects his mates, PW still works just fine in close combat, and keeps him cheap enough that it's no big deal if he flubbs his save and buys the farm.

 

3. Most of the rest of the pack go simple with just a Storm Bolter and Wolf Claw combination.

 

4. If you think that you need a second Shield, you could give one to one of your WC guys instead of a Storm Bolter.

 

5. Likewise, the same can be done if you feel that you need a second high strength weapon.

 

Valerian

[Wildfire]

I would never take a frostblade on a WG. This is because WG will always be in another squad. In any squad I want to have in combat, I will almost always have a power fist, so the frostblade would be redundant. Only on ICs do frostblades become a good idea, because they can be targeted independantly of the squad.

 

That being said, I wouldn't often take two WCs on a WG termie, either. I'd probably either pair it with a storm shield or combi-weapon. Or leave the power weapon, or upgrade to a power fist. All these options seem better to me than dual WCs.

[nurglespuss]

I take frost blades everytime, +1 strength, and strike at initiative, boo-yah!

[Wolf Lord Cuneglas]

Okay, here's the mathammer. I've been thinking about this one as well.

 

Wolf Guard Vs MEQ

 

TDA

1 WC & SB= 3A = 1.5H= .75W plus rerolls= 1.125W

or

1 WC & SB= 3A = 1.5H plus rerolls= 2.25H = 1.125W (This shows that there is no difference, so if you have the 3+ to hit, use the wound re-rolls)

vs

1 FB & SB= 3A = 1.5H= .999W

 

PA

1 WC & BP= 3A = 1.5H= .75W plus rerolls= 1.125W

or

1 WC & BP= 3A = 1.5H plus rerolls= 2.25H = 1.125W (This shows that there is no difference, so if you have the 3+ to hit, use the wound re-rolls)

vs

1 FB & BP= 4A = 2H = 1.33W

 

WG VS GEQ (Guard Equivalent)

 

TDA

1 WC & SB= 3A = 1.98H= 1.32W plus rerolls= 1.76W

or

1 WC & SB= 3A = 1.98H plus rerolls= 2.67H = 1.77W (This shows that there is virtually no difference)

vs

1 FB & SB= 3A = 1.98H= 1.65W

 

PA

1 WC & SB= 3A = 1.98H= 1.32W plus rerolls= 1.76W

or

1 WC & SB= 3A = 1.98H plus rerolls= 2.67H = 1.77W (This shows that there is virtually no difference)

vs

1 FB & BP= 4A = 2.67H = 2.225W

 

So FB on PA or WC in TDA. That extra attack makes the difference.

[nurglespuss]

WOW, you know what, though I appreciate the effort, that looks like a pretty meaningless mess of acronyms, symbols and numbers. Though we all know that mathhammer doesn't actually work, it is interesting for discussion. But we don't need to see the workings just the result in a nice, condensed, table like format. thanks.

[Jonny Wolf]

Cuneglass - you need a hobby brother! :) lol

 

HA! Need a hobby??? HA HA, I kill me. lol

 

But great job...perhaps simplify a bit, it is some heavy reading.

 

@nurglepuss: disagree with the math hammer. It gives you a educated guesstimate over the long term.

[Valerian]

WOW, you know what, though I appreciate the effort, that looks like a pretty meaningless mess of acronyms, symbols and numbers. Though we all know that mathhammer doesn't actually work, it is interesting for discussion. But we don't need to see the workings just the result in a nice, condensed, table like format. thanks.

 

Meaningless to you perhaps; I however appreciate the effort. I'd also dispute your assertion that "we all know math-hammer doesn't work," as it is certainly helpful in showing likely outcomes over the long term.

 

V

 

Edit: oh yeah, thanks Wolf Lord Cuneglas, well done.

[nurglespuss]

Its really not, I think I'll have to generate a standard couple of paragraphs that depict why it doesn't/can't work as its based on false assumptions. One dice roll doesn't affect another, percantile chance is fairly even, probability vs possibility th list is endless really.

 

Heres a simple one that really takes out a pillar of math hammer:

 

Roll a d6 100 times, what should be the general outcome? how many 6's?

 

or I'll simplify it: flip a coin 1000 times (or better a washer painted 2 diff colours as a coin is slightly bias) and what should the outcome be, and why?

[Jonny Wolf]

Oh good grief.

 

And the propensity of rolling 3, 4, 5. 6 is greater than that of rolling 4, 5, 6, yes?

 

I'm out.

[DapperDave]

Its really not, I think I'll have to generate a standard couple of paragraphs that depict why it doesn't/can't work as its based on false assumptions. One dice roll doesn't affect another, percantile chance is fairly even, probability vs possibility th list is endless really.

 

Heres a simple one that really takes out a pillar of math hammer:

 

Roll a d6 100 times, what should be the general outcome? how many 6's?

 

or I'll simplify it: flip a coin 1000 times (or better a washer painted 2 diff colours as a coin is slightly bias) and what should the outcome be, and why?

 

I think it's a bit funny that a post about the fallacies of math hammer (because of the generalizations it makes) is itself a rather large generalization...

Where are these false assumptions? You can't just say "math hammer doesn't work" and leave it at that. You're basically saying "statistical analysis of odds is meaningless" - which it really isn't. You can get a pretty good idea of what the relative chances of something happening are.

 

To answer your first question, about 16% or 17% of the rolls will probably be 6s - just like they would with any number of dice.

 

To answer your second question, about 500 will probably be heads and about 500 will probably be tails. The larger the sample size, the closer to those estimates the results will be. Also, if you do multiple batches of 1000, you'll find that the splits trend towards a 50/50 distribution.

 

How do these questions take any "pillars" out of math hammer?

 

Also, if you don't think it's useful, don't use it, no one's forcing you to. But there's no reason to post just to say someone completely wasted their time because you can't make heads or tails (haha, get it... heads or tails...) of the information.

 

Anyways, thanks Cuneglas for the time you put into those results.

[nurglespuss]

My post was two part:

 

First: condense the information, a long post containing info arrayed like that is confusing (and so meaningless). We just need to see the result.

 

Secondly: the pillars, thats then answer I was waiting for, your stacking the odds, which you can't do (my point entirely) each dice roll/coin flip is a seperate event, entirely unrelated to the previous event, there is no reason that every dice roll won't be a six, or every coin flip a head. The coin/dice does not remember the previous result, and so each outcome is random. Give it a try, I guarantee you won't find the splits you think you will (or maybe you will! its all chance!).

[imperious]

But "mathhammer" isn't a probability, it's an average of predicted results. Obviously, the probability of rolling a four plus on four dice isn't two, but on average you should get two results greater than four.

[nurglespuss]

LOL whats the definition of probability? :lol:

[Grogugluk]

Of course math hammer works. Its silly to assume that it doesn't.

 

 

Try playing 10 bloodclaws vs 10 grey hunters.

 

Math hammer says the Grey hunters will hit more often with their shooting and get hit less often in CC by most other troops.

 

 

Mathhammer is why people use powerfists and TDA.

 

 

A large part of this game is based on math and being able to estimate how things are going to go down based on probabilities.

[Spazmonkey]

This conversation looks like its more about who can sound clever than it is about math hammer.....

But thats just the opinion of this Bloodclaw...