Can someone provide the math hammer

[antique_nova]

basically what the title says, because i am not sure what to add one to my 1500 points list in the place of a wolf priest. Without cover saves.

 

NOTE: if anyone wants to know what else is in my list to give me other options, then the link is here

http://www.bolterandchainsword.com/index.p...id=2201257&

Post 56.

 

an extra 5 missile launchers

or

5x wolf scouts

2x plasma pistol

1x wolf guard

1x melta bomb

1x motw

1x combi-melta.

 

The reason why i am stuck it because what it i face a very mobile tank army? my wolf scouts will be next to useless if my opponent is aware of my wolf scouts and he keeps his tanks/ skimmers more than 12inches away from any board edge.

 

Note: i tried math hammer, not sure if it is right, but apparently i can get 1.494 missiles equally it's front armour with 15 missile launchers. I know how realistic it can be and it's about right when i've been sad and rolled 15 dice to work it out.lol. am i correct?

 

thanks

antique_nova

[Het Masteen]

It's a bigger issue than what you mentioned though, isn't it? It's also a change in strategy.

 

Outflanking units can often contest objectives that are held in your opponents deployment zone, whereas long fangs wouldn't have a chance. You could also equip your Scouts better if they're going tank-hunting. You've no meltagun there. Even if he keeps his tanks/skimmers >12" away from each edge, your melta has an 18" threat range (on 6", then shoot 12"). More than likely you'll be aiming for his rear armour. Much more efficient than plasma..........You even have a chance (though slim) of wrecking a landraider or monolith with a melta at 12".

 

Personally, I'd take the scouts.

[melabi]

That would be,

 

15 * 2/3(BS) * 1/6(Glancing) * 1/3(Immobile+WeaoponBust) = 0.55

 

So its 56% chance you will get to immobilize or destroy the big gun on the tank.

 

Note that, with the same number lascannon, the chance will tripple.

[Skalver]

Assuming no cover save for the vehicle:

 

Chance to hit = 3+ = 66.66%

Chance to glance = 6+ (8 + 6 = 14) = 16.66%

 

So 15 missile launchers would cause an average of 15 * 0.6666 * 0.1666 = 1.6666 glancing hits per turn.

 

Since missile launchers can only glance off AV 14 the only way they can destroy is to get enough Immobilized / Weapon Destroyed results to destroy every weapon on the vehicle and immobilize it and then get an extra immobilized / weapon destroyed result to finish it off. Against a vehicle with a single weapon system that will take 3 rolls of 5+ on the dice that you roll to penetrate or an average of 9 glancing hits.

 

Your 15 missile launchers will destroy 1 AV 14 vehicle every 5.4 turns with average rolls and no cover saves.

[ironking]

where do you learn mathhammer - is there a forum / thread or site?

[Hjaertrr]

Its just statistics based on dice rolls.

 

Eg, you have hit a unit ten times and need a 4+ to wound so on average you would wound 5 times.

 

Would give a better explanation but i'm late for the bus :tu:.

[avatar8481]

where do you learn mathhammer - is there a forum / thread or site?

 

It's basic statistics. When you get to 10th grade you should learn it well enough.

[antique_nova]

it's basically. work out your BS or WS out of 6. so if your BS is 4. then 4 is 2/3rds out of the dice. so what's 2/3rds out of 100? that's 66%. Then you work it out from there. Hmm. guys do you think it;s reasonible to just make them not shoot? because i am happy enough for me to even stop them shooting, because i always have the 5th turn to catch up with them :D.

 

Het Masteen:

I have a combi-melta :P. but i couldn't remember if the scouts could get melta guns, so i left the unit without it. Also, should i keep the melta bomb? or should i take it off? because i am still deciding whether i should take chances on shooting the tanks or going close combat. because i will prefer them being able to hurt something. I will look at the codex again tonight and see what i can do.

 

thanks

antique_nova

[Spacefrisian]

where do you learn mathhammer - is there a forum / thread or site?

 

And pure theoreticly. Dont ever try and use this in practise as their are no 1.33 models.

[antique_nova]

lol, you mean rockets. it has it's usefulness, but common sense and experience says it all really. Don't rely on mathshammer to win games. It's an interesting side of the game that i don't mind dipping into, but not submerging myself fully into.

thanks

antique_nova

[tahrikmili]

I find mathammer slightly useful, but probability is definitely more meaningful than killing 1.33 models.

 

Let's do something fun.

 

What are the chances of glancing AV14 at least once, with 15 Missile Launchers?

 

Chance of glancing with a ML: 2/3 * 1/6 = 1/9

Chance of failing to glance with a ML: 1 - 1/9 = 8/9

Chance of failing to glance with all = (8/97)^15 = 17,09%

 

Chance of glancing at least once with 15 Missile Launchers = 100% - 17.09% = 82.91%

 

Let's do something else that's also fun:

 

Chance of glancing at least once a round with 4 MLs?

 

Chance of glancing with a ML: 2/3 * 1/6 = 1/9

Chance of failing to glance with a ML: 1 - 1/9 = 8/9

Chance of failing to glance with all = (8/9)^4 = 62.43%

 

Chance of glancing at least once with 4 Missile Launchers = 100% - 62.43% = 37.57%

 

Funfun.

 

But not exactly very useful in this specific case (mostly because glancing a LR means nothing hehe.)

[TiguriusX]

This topic could use another look b/c I think there was a misconception regarding destroying AV14 (typically LRs)

 

S8-Krak missile (ML)

S9-Las cannon (LC)

 

The best result from a ML is a glance on AV14 (unless you have tank hunter character in the unit). You technically can destroy a tank after multiple glancing hits but it is a waste of your firepower. As discussed above you need a minimum of 3 hits on a vehicle with a single weapon to finish it off using nothing but glancing hits.

 

Penetrate gives you a 33% (2/6) chance at wiping out the unit with a single shot

 

LC > ML with respect to AV14 for the "potential" of penetrating. Penetrating >>> Glancing

 

Since this is SW I should also mention how Logan's tank hunter changes odds of busting AV14

 

Using tank hunter the LC = S10. If it hits you have a 50% (3/6) chance of glancing AV14 and 33% (2/6) chance of penetrating

Using a basic LC = S9. If it hits you have a 33% (2/6) chance of glancing AV 14 and 16% (1/6) chance of penetrating

Using a krak missile = S8. If it hits you have a 16% (1/6) chance of penetrating and 0% (0/6) chance of penetrating

 

For argument sake here is how melta weapons deal with AV14

Basic melta = S8+2d6. If it hits you have a 72% (26/36) chance of glancing AV 14 and 58% (21/36) chance of penetrating

 

Melta are superior in theory but there are key points to remember

-Can't play the "odds" with melta weapons because most units/vehicles have 2 at most

-Meltas have to be within 8" and MM have to be within 12" for these results. LC/ML are effective out to 48"

[Freman Bloodglaive]

To hit, to damage, to destroy...

 

3+,6+,5+

 

2/3 x 1/6 x 1/3 = 2/54

 

With fifteen shots and needing three consecutive hits.

 

Q = 52/54

 

15!/(2! x 13!) = 105

 

15!/14! = 15

 

(52/54)^15 + 15(((52/54)^14) x (2/54)) + 105(((52/54)^13) x ((2/54)^2)) = 0.568 + 0.328 + 0.088 = 0.984

 

Probability of success. 1 - 0.984 = 0.016

 

So you have about a 1.6 percent chance of killing a Land Raider with 15 missile launchers in one round of shooting.

 

If my calculations are correct that is.

[Wildfire]

Using tank hunter the LC = S10. If it hits you have a 50% (3/6) chance of glancing AV14 and 33% (2/6) chance of penetrating

 

This is wrong. You will never have a greater than 1/6 chance of penetrating. If your numbers are based on this, you will have incorrect percentages.

[TiguriusX]

Using tank hunter the LC = S10. If it hits you have a 50% (3/6) chance of glancing AV14 and 33% (2/6) chance of penetrating

 

This is wrong. You will never have a greater than 1/6 chance of penetrating. If your numbers are based on this, you will have incorrect percentages.

 

You definitely need to explain how you came up with that conclusion

 

S10 requires a roll of 5 or 6 on a d6 to penetrate AV14

 

That is 2/6 unless I am missing something in my logic

[Skalver]

Using tank hunter the LC = S10. If it hits you have a 50% (3/6) chance of glancing AV14 and 33% (2/6) chance of penetrating

 

This is wrong. You will never have a greater than 1/6 chance of penetrating. If your numbers are based on this, you will have incorrect percentages.

 

I think what he meant was you have a 50% chance of getting a glancing hit or better. In the specific example you have:

 

50% chance of no effect.

17% chance of glancing hit.

33% chance of penetrating hit.

 

But yes, with a lascannon the specific chance of getting a glance will always be 1 in 6. It could perhaps have been phrased a bit better.

[TiguriusX]

Using tank hunter the LC = S10. If it hits you have a 50% (3/6) chance of glancing AV14 and 33% (2/6) chance of penetrating

 

This is wrong. You will never have a greater than 1/6 chance of penetrating. If your numbers are based on this, you will have incorrect percentages.

 

I think what he meant was you have a 50% chance of getting a glancing hit or better. In the specific example you have:

 

50% chance of no effect.

17% chance of glancing hit.

33% chance of penetrating hit.

 

But yes, with a lascannon the specific chance of getting a glance will always be 1 in 6. It could perhaps have been phrased a bit better.

 

I think I see what you mean...let me correct the numbers and verify

 

50% chance of no effect (based on BS4 chance to hit)

25% chance of glancing hit (Takes into account odds of actually hitting the target)

17% chance of penetrating hit (Takes into account odds of actually hitting the target)

 

 

Modifying the info I gave (which says "if it hits")

 

The new disclaimer now says "based on a single weapon" because multiple LC + tank hunter change the overall probability

[Wildfire]

Pardon, I meant to say you will never have a greater than 1/6 chance of glancing. My mistake.

 

And no, those numbers are still wrong. They don't even add up to 100%. Unless you have no chance getting a pen at all, the chance to pen will always be => the chance to glance. I honestly have no idea how you're getting those numbers.

 

If you were hitting an AV14 vehicle with a S10 weapon, you would have a 3/6 chance to do nothing, a 1/6 chance to glance, and a 2/6 chance to pen.

[TiguriusX]

I need to leave for work so I can't contribute anymore but I think I see 1 miscommunication.

 

My % to glance translates to "glance OR better" not strictly glance and nothing else

[SamaNagol]

Missile Launchers vs AV14 = a waste of Missile Launchers.

 

That's the math done for you.

[antique_nova]

i thought that i would just say, since i can't find a post in this thread that i have done already, i have already moved away from the ML VS AV14 before this post even started, but i was just curious of their chances. I knew that they were slim, but i was just interested into the math hammer side of it.

thanks

antique_nova