Exorcist Mathhammer

[Fifthman]

("\(:D)

 

I worked through the search and found nothing on the topic, so I thought I'd leave this here to compile while I lurk the boards for rumors and updates concerning our beloved Inquisition. It's just a little bit of a cheat sheet that I'm compiling to help myself and others gauge how well the Exorcist does against other units. I'll update it as I go along.

 

Example calculation for AV 14 is now on pastebin for simplicity's sake.

 

The probability that an Exorcist destroys a target with the given AV with a salvo of 1d6 missiles (a turn of shooting) is given as follows.

 

AV 10

Destroy: 57.51%

Immobilize or destroy weapon: 69.59%

 

AV 11

Destroy: 48.13%

Immobilize or destroy weapon: 60.25%

 

AV 12

Destroy: 36.75%

Immobilize or destroy weapon: 48.13%

 

AV 13

Destroy: 22.95%

Immobilize or destroy weapon: 32.44%

 

AV 14

Destroy: 6.26%

Immobilize or destroy weapon: 12.2%

 

 

Current questions:

Is the math right?

How does this compare with the anti-armor weapons from other armies?

 

To do:

Compile results for infantry toughnesses

[MadCowCrazy]

Well, its widely know that sisters suck at cracking AV14 at range. You have no other choice but to get those meltas up close and personal. If they ever redo the codex I hove they give the exorcist some D3 S10 Ap1 missiles and some D3 blast missiles to deal with hordes, changing the regular missiles to 2D3 for a 2-6 attacks would make the normal missile a bit more reliable as well.

[ArmouredWing]

Well, its widely know that sisters suck at cracking AV14 at range. You have no other choice but to get those meltas up close and personal. If they ever redo the codex I hove they give the exorcist some D3 S10 Ap1 missiles and some D3 blast missiles to deal with hordes, changing the regular missiles to 2D3 for a 2-6 attacks would make the normal missile a bit more reliable as well.

Although when the dice start rolling anything can happen.

 

My last game I faced a LR with assault termie squad, first round of firing from the first of my 2 exorcists resulted in 3 missles, 2 hits of which 1 glanced, rolled a 6 for pen, minus 2 for the glance and plus 1 for the AP1 - LR destroyed! Although this was somewhat of a surprise and left Karamazov out in the open with nothing to fire at (my bad deployment and expectation that I would need to use his MM to do the damage!).

 

When it comes to tackling AV14 I always consider that destoyed is the best result possible but what I'm actually aiming for is an immobilised or weapon destroyed damage result. LR's biggest strength in the game is that they are a mobile troop carrier with the added bonus that they are very hard to kill. Most LR's are there to deliver infantry, if they're immobilised then all they are is an expensive weapons platform which aren't doing what they were bought for.

[Fifthman]

Condensed a bit of the math, and added immobilization result as well. Note that the immobilization probability is about the same as the destroyed weapon probability.

[ArmouredWing]

Using this formula, one can predict a 6.26% chance of destroying the target, and a 12.2% chance of immobilizing the target on a given salvo.

The question has to be asked but is that % for each missle or each potential salvo? and how does that change for AV13?

[Fifthman]

Using this formula, one can predict a 6.26% chance of destroying the target, and a 12.2% chance of immobilizing the target on a given salvo.

The question has to be asked but is that % for each missle or each potential salvo? and how does that change for AV13?

 

A given salvo of 1d6 missiles fired at an AV 14 target has those given probabilities.

 

The probability changes going down to AV 13, because each missile has a chance of penetrating as well as a chance of glancing. The formula for the probability of a one missile kill becomes

(4/6 to hit)*((1/6 to penetrate) * (3/6 to kill) + (1/6 to glance) * (1/6 to kill)) = 2/27, or 7.407%.

 

The formula for the probability of a one missile immobilization is

(4/6)*((1/6)*(4/6) + (1/6)*(2/6)) = 1/9, or 11.11%

 

For the nth missile, the probability P becomes

(25/27)^(n-1)*(2/27) to kill

(8/9)^(n-1)*(1/9) to immobilize

and taking the sum as described, we can get a 22.95% chance of destroying and a 32.44% chance of immobilizing an AV 13 target.

 

A formatting question: Is it possible to make collapsibles, or do LaTeX formatting? Both would make our lives a lot easier in this thread.

 

Also, results for AVs 10-14 are now up.

[Eremiel]

Well, its widely know that sisters suck at cracking AV14 at range. You have no other choice but to get those meltas up close and personal. If they ever redo the codex I hove they give the exorcist some D3 S10 Ap1 missiles and some D3 blast missiles to deal with hordes, changing the regular missiles to 2D3 for a 2-6 attacks would make the normal missile a bit more reliable as well.

 

I would think that using Seraphim (with meltabombs) would be a viable option for cracking open the heavy armor vehicles. Use Hit and Run tactics if they get jumped by any pesky protection mobs.

[ArmouredWing]

Yeah, a well used tactic by all means but not as easy to use as an exorcist salvo and in the case where they are going in against a LR then you've got the added risk of being assaulted by the embarked squad which, when facing an LRC in particular, would probably mean a load of TH/Lightning Claw Termies which will be able to assault on the turn they disembark and eliminate 200+ pts of Seraphim without batting an eyelid.

 

Seraphim are ok as an anti armour unit but better as a roaving hit squad which can weaken key units/areas and assist in the rest of your list achieving their objectives.

 

As much as I'd like them to be an equivalently sound option to the exorcist their performance doesn't stack up when compared to the outlay of points. In my early days of playing sisters I didn't like the thought of running exorcists. To me they were too unreliable and fragile and so I built up 3 max sized squads of seraphim to undertake the same task but they rarely managed to survive to deliver the killer punch that was needed to break mechanised lines. In the end I dropped them in favour of the cheaper option of exorcists and in 5th ed this makes even more sense as Seraphim cannot claim objectives, only contest.

 

To quote a well known film trailer that's out at the moment "there is no plan B!". We simply don't have anything that can acheive the same results as an exorcist for the same points and even then you need to field at least 2 to ensure that the bad rolls are evened out.

[Fifthman]

I would think that using Seraphim (with meltabombs) would be a viable option for cracking open the heavy armor vehicles. Use Hit and Run tactics if they get jumped by any pesky protection mobs.

 

I use meltabomb Seraphim as my plan B for heavy armor. I find that a jump pack Canoness with an Eviscerator usually gets the job done against most heavy armor, and I like to run her with an inferno pistol for the fluff and the added punch.

 

My exorcists generally target the enemy's light transports so I can rob him of his mobility. They're not too shabby against Terminators and the like, either.