Brother-Chaplain Gaius Posted March 7, 2010 Share Posted March 7, 2010 Myself and the scatter dice have never had a great relationship, ever. and I'm wondering exactly what are the odds to hit/miss on a scatter? assuming we're using BS 4 Knowing the chances will help me decide what to give my new devastators. thanks guys! Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/194089-scatter-dice-and-math-hammer/ Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commander Sasha Posted March 7, 2010 Share Posted March 7, 2010 Assuming you are talking about a single model: Large blast Direct hit, 1/3 Miss, deviation of 3 hits; 4+ misses ie 2d6=8+; misses 15/36; hits 21/36 =7/12 Probability of hit= 1/3 + 2/3*(7/12) = 28/36 = 0.777 Small blast Direct hit, 1/3 Miss, deviation of 2 hits; 3+ misses ie 2d6=7+; misses 21/36; hits 15/36 =5/12 Probability of hit= 1/3 + 2/3*(5/12) = 22/36 = 0.611 Hope my maths is right, happy to be outclassed! Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/194089-scatter-dice-and-math-hammer/#findComment-2307089 Share on other sites More sharing options...
glsn Posted March 7, 2010 Share Posted March 7, 2010 Aim at the center of the group. A third will hit what you aim at, a third will hit the things beside what you aim at, and a third will hit your own guys. All told, I love the thunderfire cannon. Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/194089-scatter-dice-and-math-hammer/#findComment-2307187 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chengar Qordath Posted March 7, 2010 Share Posted March 7, 2010 As a general rule, scatter dice can't be perfectly mathhammered since a lot of their success rate depends on the disposiiton of the enemy unit you are targetting, which is different every single time you shoot. There have been times when I rolled max scatter and actually did more damage than if the shot had been on target, or had just a tiny amount of scatter be enough to result in a total miss. Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/194089-scatter-dice-and-math-hammer/#findComment-2307212 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brother-Chaplain Gaius Posted March 7, 2010 Author Share Posted March 7, 2010 thx for the replis. and good math cmmdr sasha. perhaps i was too vague, I know scatter dice depends on some variables that cannot be determined, unless we were basing it off a single game/ terrain layout. But in general I was referring to small blast bs4, being fired into the middle of say a tac squad Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/194089-scatter-dice-and-math-hammer/#findComment-2307379 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicar Valius Posted March 7, 2010 Share Posted March 7, 2010 Well for no scatter you have 1/3 + (4/6 [you miss on sactter dice]* 1/6 [probability of rolling a 4 or less])= 4/9 to scatter 2 inches or less (pretty much what you need vs 10 tac marines) is 1/3 + (4/6* 15/36)= 1/3+30/109 =0.61 (2.d.p) That help? Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/194089-scatter-dice-and-math-hammer/#findComment-2307548 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brother-Chaplain Gaius Posted March 7, 2010 Author Share Posted March 7, 2010 If I'm reading it correctly, yes. its 61% chance for direct hit? doesnt sound right to me If i' not reading it correctly sorry please be patient I was never good at math and dropped it as soon as i could in school Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/194089-scatter-dice-and-math-hammer/#findComment-2307578 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackelope King Posted March 7, 2010 Share Posted March 7, 2010 61% is the probability that a blast will scatter less than 2 inches from the initial target, whether because you rolled a "hit" on the scatter die, or the total scatter was 6 or less. And I don't have it with me to measure, but I think the small blast is 2" radius? Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/194089-scatter-dice-and-math-hammer/#findComment-2307591 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparhawk Posted March 7, 2010 Share Posted March 7, 2010 I thought the radius was 1.5", mainly because I thought our blast templates were 3" and 5". Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/194089-scatter-dice-and-math-hammer/#findComment-2307597 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chengar Qordath Posted March 7, 2010 Share Posted March 7, 2010 I thought the radius was 1.5", mainly because I thought our blast templates were 3" and 5". Correct. However, as I recall with a 2" deviation a small blast template will still cover part of the model it was centered over. Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/194089-scatter-dice-and-math-hammer/#findComment-2307754 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Koremu Posted March 7, 2010 Share Posted March 7, 2010 That may not be the only question concerning the probabilities with scatter dice though. What is the probability that a Demolisher Siege Cannon will hit a Monolith with the Monolith filling the centre hole of the Large Blast Template if the initial shot is exactly centred on the centre of the target? Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/194089-scatter-dice-and-math-hammer/#findComment-2307779 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brother-Chaplain Gaius Posted March 8, 2010 Author Share Posted March 8, 2010 61% is the probability that a blast will scatter less than 2 inches from the initial target, whether because you rolled a "hit" on the scatter die, or the total scatter was 6 or less. And I don't have it with me to measure, but I think the small blast is 2" radius? ok thanks, and the small blast is 3" Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/194089-scatter-dice-and-math-hammer/#findComment-2308047 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xeonic Posted March 8, 2010 Share Posted March 8, 2010 And at least once out of that 39% chance to scatter off the target unit I've rolled boxcars and had a plasma cannon shot thus drift 8" and immobilze my own predator. ;) Mathhammer tells me further that rolling boxcars was a 1 in 36 chance(something like less than 3%), and the scatter dice rolling the arrow in the right direction when actually there weren't any other friendly targets in range is well, a really really low chance. Still the most memorable shot in recent memory, despite the negative result for me. Knowing the probability against such things makes them all the more interesting to see, and it's one of the reasons I love 40k. Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/194089-scatter-dice-and-math-hammer/#findComment-2308115 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chengar Qordath Posted March 8, 2010 Share Posted March 8, 2010 61% is the probability that a blast will scatter less than 2 inches from the initial target, whether because you rolled a "hit" on the scatter die, or the total scatter was 6 or less. And I don't have it with me to measure, but I think the small blast is 2" radius? ok thanks, and the small blast is 3" 3" diameter, not 3" radius. Not trying to be a geometry nazi, but it is a pretty important distinction. Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/194089-scatter-dice-and-math-hammer/#findComment-2308161 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brother-Chaplain Gaius Posted March 8, 2010 Author Share Posted March 8, 2010 yes, you're correct. Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/194089-scatter-dice-and-math-hammer/#findComment-2308200 Share on other sites More sharing options...
pattison Posted March 8, 2010 Share Posted March 8, 2010 I think there is no use of math when we come to the scatter dices. You simply have to believe that it will be a hit. Roll the dices from karma! :down: I roll more hits than anything else in general. I love plasma weapons! :huh: Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/194089-scatter-dice-and-math-hammer/#findComment-2308368 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicar Valius Posted March 11, 2010 Share Posted March 11, 2010 Never trust the dice gods, they are fickle and make you roll 8 out 11 rolls 2s or 1s when rolling for your armour saves! never trust them and always sacrifice your opponents HQ to them. Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/194089-scatter-dice-and-math-hammer/#findComment-2314212 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chengar Qordath Posted March 11, 2010 Share Posted March 11, 2010 Never trust the dice gods, they are fickle and make you roll 8 out 11 rolls 2s or 1s when rolling for your armour saves! never trust them and always sacrifice your opponents HQ to them. Yes, the random number god is a dangerous and fickle being. One of my opponents once questioned the existence of the random number god and insisted that appeasing him/her/it was just a silly superstition. The next time he had to roll armor saves for his terminator squad he failed all of them; I've never seen that many 1's at the same time before. Doubt the power of the random number god at your own peril. Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/194089-scatter-dice-and-math-hammer/#findComment-2314286 Share on other sites More sharing options...
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