Witch Hunter Anti-Armor Mathhammer

[Fifthman]

I also emailed this to Stelek, and am crossposting here and on yesthetruthhurts.com .

 

Thanks for checking the numbers. This thread is an evolution of the Exorcist Mathhammer page, extending to all anti-armor weapons available to a Witch Hunters army.

 

Probability of a single shot dealing the desired damage (P1):

P1 = (P to hit)*( (P to penetrate) * (P of desired damage) + (P to glance) * (P of desired damage))

 

Probability of n shots dealing the desired damage(Pn):

This is where the multiple hits issue comes in. The formula assumes, basically, that only one shot actually hits and the other n-1 shots miss.

Pn = sum from 1 to n of (1-P1)^(n-1)*(P1)

 

Probability of a random salvo dealing the desired damage(Ps):

The probability that a number of missiles is fired is 1/6, and the probability that the given number of missiles is fired is Pn.

So, Ps = 1/6*P1 + 1/6*P2 + ... + 1/6+P6, or simplified to Ps = 1/6* (sum from 1 to 6 of Pn). This equation is specific to the Exorcist, as it fires 1d6 shots.

 

Using the formulas, I compiled the following tables for the "per salvo" probabilities of different weapons accessible by Witch Hunters armies (including inducted Imperial Guard):

 

http://docs.google.com/fileview?id=0Bzgh3b...mMDgy&hl=en

 

Some notes:

A rapid-fired plasma gun shoots the same number of strength 7 shots as a single Autocannon salvo.

 

A Psycannon and a multilaser shoot the same number of strength 6 shots.