Chaplains - Worth it?

[Chapter Master Ignis Domus]

No, see what they rolled before has no effect on their roll. You have a fifty percent chance to hit. You pick up fifty percent of those and re-roll them, again with a fifty percent chance. Fifty percent plus fifty percent of fifty percent is seventy-five percent.

[spartan249]

Rolling a one on a dice doesn't make rolling another one any less probable than it was before. It's not like a deck of cards, where every card you draw reduces the pool of cards to draw from, thus increasing the probability of getting a card that you haven't gotten yet. It's a total chance of 1/36 of rolling a 1 twice, not 1/36 of getting a 1 after a reroll. That makes absolutely no sense, as nothing changed from one roll to the next.

 

As I said, something's wrong here, and that's probably it.

 

In any case, Chaplains only augment one squad for one assault phase. Given their huge personal debuff, they just aren't as outstandingly powerful as they were before. I think they should simply have gone up in price slightly instead of losing stats, as losing stats makes them rather trashy.

[their kin]

Not true Chapter Master, because the dice are being rolled in sequence, and depend on the results of the other dice.

 

Think of this:

One man rolls 1 die, another rolls 1 die, and each is trying to roll a 4+. They each have a 50/50 shot, and statistically one will roll it.

Now, 1 man rolls 20 dice, and the other rolls 10 again trying to roll 4+ on each die. This will, statistically, produce 15, again an even 50/50 shot.

But now, one man roll 20 dice, again trying to roll a 4+. Then, one at a time, he rerolls the 10 dice which failed, in an attempt to roll a 4+. Now each of those dice has a chance of 1/36 of rolling the same number the second time (whether it's a 1, 2, or 3, it doesn't matter), but, of the other 5 permutations, each has an equal chance of happening. So, you must chances of failure (2/5+1/36=77/180) which, compared to the 6 possible outcomes (6/6) creates the chances of success for the reroll, i.e. 113/180. This is then put into perspective compared to the initial chance of success (113/360 compared to 1/2=180/360) and you have the total chance of success, 293/360.

 

And I completely agree with you last point chapter master, regarding the nerf bat GW used to tune up chaplains. Should have just upped the cost.

[Mezkh]

Er.

 

Dice have no memory. It's 50% chance to roll a 4+. Then on the reroll, it's again 50% chance to roll a 4+.

 

When you're rerolling, the previous value you rolled on that dice is irrelevant.

[Chapter Master Ignis Domus]

I think what you may be missing, if not the Diceheimers disease, is that it's not a 1/36 chance after the second roll. It's a 1/6 chance. See, you already know the results of the first roll, eliminating any possible variations(unless you're hallucinating) for the first roll. This means that you simply have to roll the same number on a six-sided cube. As this cube has six sides, you have a 1/6 chance of rolling that number.

[their kin]

Hey chapter master, why not keep the petty insults between you and your computer screen?

 

Anyway, I rolled it 20 times (cause I have that much to do today) and came up with an average of 15.35 out of 21 hits. So apparently no matter who's right I have bad luck. But the reason I'm sticking to my guns is that, after reading the post initially this morning, I talked to a math major buddy of mine, who agreed with me (I have no idea the meaning of the equations he used though). So I'm gonna agree to disagree (with a little less faith in my reasoning and the quality of my institution of higher learning) and move on.

 

And besides all that, regardless of points, as a force multiplier I still say he's worth it.

[Chapter Master Ignis Domus]

Oh, sorry. I think you misunderstood the diceheimers thing. I was talking about the dice have no memories thing. Don't worry, I have a strange and complicated sense of humor.

 

Your dice rolls were actually only 0.5 below accurate. For such a small test group, that's quite good.

[their kin]

No worries chapter master. Wasn't sure where you were going with the witticism, and apparently assume the worst. No harm no foul, and hopefully you don't think less of me *batts eyelashes* (no homo!).

[Brother Valerius]

I think what you may be missing, if not the Diceheimers disease, is that it's not a 1/36 chance after the second roll. It's a 1/6 chance. See, you already know the results of the first roll, eliminating any possible variations(unless you're hallucinating) for the first roll. This means that you simply have to roll the same number on a six-sided cube. As this cube has six sides, you have a 1/6 chance of rolling that number.

 

Quite. Their kin, you seem to be falling into the gambler's fallacy. Yes, it's only a 1/36 chance to roll two ones (or whatever) in a row, but once you roll the first result, it's already happened and does not factor into the probability any more. The probability is the same each time, no matter how many ones you roll.

[their kin]

Yeah, the more I look at it the more I think I'm just more persuasive than my buddy is sure of himself

[MagicMan]

I don't know about you guys, but twin linked weapons hit more often for me.

 

 

Stands to reason that twin linked close combat attacks will, too.

[spartan249]

Nobody's saying that Chaplains are completely useless. I'm simply putting forth the notion that Chaplains now come with a huge opportunity cost, as there are other, more universal things you can do with the HQ slot.

[Mysticaria]

Nobody's saying that Chaplains are completely useless. I'm simply putting forth the notion that Chaplains now come with a huge opportunity cost, as there are other, more universal things you can do with the HQ slot.

That's a good summary. I like taking them when I don't think I'll need a libby. I'm not taking him because he's the best though, I'm taking him because I don't need the opportunity that the other guy presents. In an all-comers or tournament list it is hard to pass up the null zone for a chaplain.

 

-Myst