statistical probabilities of new GK squads

[Marshal van Trapp]

so recently we were having a discussion on how good the individual "troops" of the new GK codex are, here i will go into the statistical probabilities of each unit and how well they can perform, for sake of argument i will be counting the squads as moving for their 1st turn (to get into position) and then staying stationary for the rest of the game, which will be a 5 turn game, they will be fighting a MEQ force worth 15pts a model for ease of efficiency calculations and they will not assault, this is an exercise on how well they stack up while shooting

 

The comparison will be run between a GKSS and a Purifier squad both mounted in rhinos with the max amount of psycannons they can possibly have each and psybolt ammo

 

First we start with comparative cost standpoints:

 

10man purifier squad, in a rhino, with psybolt ammo and 4 pyscannons = 12 S5 shots and 8 S7 shots for 310pts (min)

VS

10man strike squad, in a rhino, with psybolt ammo and 2 pyscannons = 16 S5 shots and 4 S7 shots for 280 pts (min)

 

so starting with hit saturation:

on their first turn both squads have 20 shots, 2/3 of which will hit (with bs 4) so: 20 X 2/3 = approx 13 shots will hit (statistically) however this is where the similarities will end, as after the first turn the GKPS will go up to 28 shots but the GKSS only goes up to 24, so the GKPS has more hit saturation cause of the increase of firepower granted by the psycannons

 

now breaking down the individual hits:

the GKPS has 12 S5 shots and 8 S7 shot on their first turn, statistically 8 S5's will hit and 5 1/3 S7 shots will hit

on their following turn (remember stationary for the rest of the game) still 12 S5 but now 16 S7 so statistically still 8 S5 hits and now 10 2/3 S7 hits

 

on the other end, the GKSS have 16 S5 shots and 4 S7 (on first turn), so statistically 10 2/3 S5 hits and 2 2/3 S7 hits

while successive turns yield 16 S5 and 8 S7, so still 10 2/3 S5 hits but now 5 1/3 S7 hits

 

that means throughout a 5 turn game:

GKPS will hit with 40 S5 shots and 48 S7 shots

GKSS will hit with 53 1/3 S5 shots and 24 S7 shots

 

now based on that, we can determine how many wounds they will cause:

S5 hits will wound on 3+ against MEQ so its still a 2/3 chance so:

the GKPS will wound with 26 2/3 of its S5 hits from the whole game

the GKSS however will wound with 35 5/9 of its S5 hits from the whole game

 

S7 hits however will wound on anything but a 1 with a 5/6 of wounding, however because psycannons rend that means 1/6 of the attacks will cause instant wounds with no saves against MEQs so:

GKPS will wound with 40 of its S7 hits from the whole game 8 of which ignore their saves (because statistically 1/6 of the total dice rolled will be 6s)

GKSS will wound with 20 of its S7 hits from the whole game 4 of which will ignore their saves

 

since neither of the shots will ignore armor saves except the rending dice you can consolidate the wounds together:

GKPS will inflict 58 2/3 savable wounds in the game and 8 unsavable wounds

GKSS will inflict 51 5/9 savable wounds in the game and 4 unsavable wounds

 

now you can compare this to the save of an MEQ unit to determine how many units each squad has the statistical potential to kill so:

GKPS will inflict 58 2/3 savable wounds in the game and 8 unsavable wounds

An MEQ has a 3+ save so only 1/3 of the wounds are lethal so the GKPS will kill 19 5/9 with non rending hits, add the rending hits for a total of 27 5/9 dead MEQ

 

GKSS will inflict 51 5/9 savable wounds in the game and 4 unsavable wounds

An MEQ has a 3+ save so only 1/3 of the wounds are lethal so the GKSS will kill 17 5/27 with non rending hits, add the rending hits for a total of 21 5/27 dead MEQ

 

at this point you cannot kill 5/9 of a SM so i will be dropping the fractions and rounding down, if anyone wants to argue the fact, show me in the rules where a model with one wound can take 5/9 of a wound :thanks:

 

so if each MEQ cost 15 pts (standard SM) then each squad would earn a total amount of points for killing each model

 

the GKPS would kill 27 so at 15pt/MEQ it ends up killing 405pts

the GKSS would kill 21 so they end up killing 315pts

 

now comparing these numbers to their cost in a manner as to get an efficiency percent using the following formula:

Points killed/Cost X 100% = Efficiency

 

the GKPS had 405pts/310pts x 100% = 130.645% efficiency

the GKSS had 315pts/280pts X 100% = 112.5% efficiency

 

so which is more efficient at ranged lethality? the GKPS! however is the difference significant? not really, 18.145% is not that big of a difference in efficiency but this is a one on one comparison and the more Purifiers you have the more efficient they become compared to an equivalent number of strike squads

 

now that my brain has warmed up i will probably do a statistical comparison on which squad is better at CC, but for now i leave you with this, hopefully it will help people new to the game or codex determine which they would rather take

[confused_gordy]

There are a number of flaws to this kind of analysis which should be considered (not saying that it is wrong, but greater consideration should be made).

 

First off - rarely will a unit with 16 (if stationary) strength 7 rending shots, be only targeting infantry. If tanks are taken into consideration as well, then the GKPS streaks ahead of its SS breathren, as storm bolters aren't going to make much of a difference.

 

Second - These units seem to be operating in isolation - more psycannons in a unit of GKPS mean that the psycannons are more susceptible to death (only need 7 wounds to be saving on a psycannon, rather than 9 on a SS squad). Meaning that on occasion the GKPS will lose effectiveness more quickly than the SS.

 

Third - Why not test a closer comparison of unit points (eg give the SS psybolt ammo and don't give the PS the upgrade). This will bring the two units close in line as regards point cost, and alter the unit effectiveness making the gap smaller.

 

I agree with the general summary, Purifiers are better than SS. But they should be. However, it isn't by the margin you suggest.

 

Another way of looking at it, is what shooting could be gotten from those 30pts difference (and over a few squads, say 90 pts difference), that could be a few bs5 IC psycannons (which would definately effect the results), or any other set of cool gear, maybe turn that rhino into a razorback with las/plas (I assume that option is in the codex), then I bet the SS would be doing more MEQ killing, I know it would cost more than 30 im just firing off ideas here.

[Inquisitor Fox]

You also forgot to take into account that the Strike Squad can deepstrike into position, and does not require a Rhino :D That's more point savings that you aren't taking into account.

[AoC]

You also forgot to take into account that the Strike Squad can deepstrike into position, and does not require a Rhino :ph34r: That's more point savings that you aren't taking into account.

Why would you NOT take a rhino is beyond me. In vehicle40k where ds sucks and is unreliable, using rhino is way to go.

[Inquisitor Fox]

It's a rolling box with paper thin walls and no practical purpose. It either gets you closer to enemy territory before being blown up, or gets you there then has nothing to do for the last 3 or 4 turns of the game. Deep striking is free, gets you closer to enemy territory, and is more useful in that you don't present a target before you show up so the enemy has no idea what your actual plan is.

 

With mystics, teleport homers and servo skulls we can minimize the risk of deep striking, which is a lot easier than pretending that all the anti-tank weapons on the other side won't be shooting my rolling coffins...

[AoC]

It's a rolling box with paper thin walls and no practical purpose. It either gets you closer to enemy territory before being blown up, or gets you there then has nothing to do for the last 3 or 4 turns of the game. Deep striking is free, gets you closer to enemy territory, and is more useful in that you don't present a target before you show up so the enemy has no idea what your actual plan is.

 

With mystics, teleport homers and servo skulls we can minimize the risk of deep striking, which is a lot easier than pretending that all the anti-tank weapons on the other side won't be shooting my rolling coffins...

 

It's great screen and do wonders as something your enemy can focus fire on. It cost not much points, it shoot not bad for the points and if you start the game it bring you close to the enemy. You don't have to take it, you can take razor with 3S6 shoots if you want to.

 

Deep striking is unreliable, works from turn 2 with 50% chance to show up, can scatter you in a bad place.

[Ashe Darke]

The GM or Brother Captain can do +/- 1 with a power they have so it's not that bad, still not something I like doing. To easy to end up with a pie plate on your head.

[Drachnon]

Yeah I'm not really fan of the normal Rhino's either I do like my BA Rhino's since they're fast but even then I only use them for Death Company. BTW if we calculate the purifiers with Rhino and the Strike squad without then the strike squad has almost the same effectiveness as purifiers. I think we can already tell that a comparison will and should heavily favor the purifiers as a squad of 10 will have 9 more base force weapon attacks (81.81%increase) and cheaper upgrades (to make it easy 50% decrease) for only 20% increase in base points.

Add to that cleansing flame power, though not usable in combination with hammerhand it is probably the nightmare of any horde army like orks, and I don't see anymore reason to do the actual math.

 

Lastly though it was nice of you to write all that math out I do think you might as well just have compared 2 Psycannons vs 2 S5 storm bolters since that's the only real difference in the calculations.

[StormTAG]

Plus it takes one of your GM/BC's powers. Can't be guiding folks in while you're beating face with hammer hand, etc.

[AoC]

Yeah I'm not really fan of the normal Rhino's either I do like my BA Rhino's since they're fast but even then I only use them for Death Company. BTW if we calculate the purifiers with Rhino and the Strike squad without then the strike squad has almost the same effectiveness as purifiers. I think we can already tell that a comparison will and should heavily favor the purifiers as a squad of 10 will have 9 more base force weapon attacks (81.81%increase) and cheaper upgrades (to make it easy 50% decrease) for only 20% increase in base points.

Add to that cleansing flame power, though not usable in combination with hammerhand it is probably the nightmare of any horde army like orks, and I don't see anymore reason to do the actual math.

 

Lastly though it was nice of you to write all that math out I do think you might as well just have compared 2 Psycannons vs 2 S5 storm bolters since that's the only real difference in the calculations.

Purifiers can also sport 8sb 2pc.

[Drachnon]

Yeah I'm not really fan of the normal Rhino's either I do like my BA Rhino's since they're fast but even then I only use them for Death Company. BTW if we calculate the purifiers with Rhino and the Strike squad without then the strike squad has almost the same effectiveness as purifiers. I think we can already tell that a comparison will and should heavily favor the purifiers as a squad of 10 will have 9 more base force weapon attacks (81.81%increase) and cheaper upgrades (to make it easy 50% decrease) for only 20% increase in base points.

Add to that cleansing flame power, though not usable in combination with hammerhand it is probably the nightmare of any horde army like orks, and I don't see anymore reason to do the actual math.

 

Lastly though it was nice of you to write all that math out I do think you might as well just have compared 2 Psycannons vs 2 S5 storm bolters since that's the only real difference in the calculations.

Purifiers can also sport 8sb 2pc.

If you calculate that they have the same amount of kills and storm squads are just 20 points cheaper.

[AoC]

Yeah I'm not really fan of the normal Rhino's either I do like my BA Rhino's since they're fast but even then I only use them for Death Company. BTW if we calculate the purifiers with Rhino and the Strike squad without then the strike squad has almost the same effectiveness as purifiers. I think we can already tell that a comparison will and should heavily favor the purifiers as a squad of 10 will have 9 more base force weapon attacks (81.81%increase) and cheaper upgrades (to make it easy 50% decrease) for only 20% increase in base points.

Add to that cleansing flame power, though not usable in combination with hammerhand it is probably the nightmare of any horde army like orks, and I don't see anymore reason to do the actual math.

 

Lastly though it was nice of you to write all that math out I do think you might as well just have compared 2 Psycannons vs 2 S5 storm bolters since that's the only real difference in the calculations.

Purifiers can also sport 8sb 2pc.

If you calculate that they have the same amount of kills and storm squads are just 20 points cheaper.

But have more pw attacks, good psychic power and fearless.

[StormTAG]

Not sure why you would ever take Purifiers just for shooty effectiveness. Purifiers need to get into combat to make the most of their points and preferably with big mobby mobs to make the most of their special power.

 

If you want a shooty unit to park midfield, take a Purgation squad and hide them behind their rhino. Now you can Astral aim wherever you want and you won't feel gyp'd for spending the points on extra attacks.

 

Me, I'd like to run a 10 man Purifier squad with 8 Halberd, 2 Hammer with a Libby out of a SR or a LR and straight into combat. Let the Libby lead with Titan and tack on Hammerhand for 24 I6 S6 attacks and 6 S10 hammer swings. ;)

[Ashe Darke]

Not sure why you would ever take Purifiers just for shooty effectiveness. Purifiers need to get into combat to make the most of their points and preferably with big mobby mobs to make the most of their special power.

 

If you want a shooty unit to park midfield, take a Purgation squad and hide them behind their rhino. Now you can Astral aim wherever you want and you won't feel gyp'd for spending the points on extra attacks.

 

Me, I'd like to run a 10 man Purifier squad with 8 Halberd, 2 Hammer with a Libby out of a SR or a LR and straight into combat. Let the Libby lead with Titan and tack on Hammerhand for 24 I6 S6 attacks and 6 S10 hammer swings. :huh:

Purgations take up Heavy Slots though and well mine are filled with Dreads. The 10 man Purifier with 4 psycannons is the next best thing, plus they ain't too shabby in a fight ;)

[StormTAG]

Since when did a squad of dudes all armed with power weapons who can conceivably get S5 ever become "shabby" in a fight? xD

[Ashe Darke]

Well their combat prowess is greater than that of the SS or Purgation squad, especially shooty dedicated ones, so it's a two fold unit. Well that's how I'm running my one purifiers unit anyway (1750+ list).

[Aidoneus]

You also forgot to take into account that the Strike Squad can deepstrike into position, and does not require a Rhino :ph34r: That's more point savings that you aren't taking into account.

Why would you NOT take a rhino is beyond me. In vehicle40k where ds sucks and is unreliable, using rhino is way to go.

While there are certainly benefits to transports, there are also reasons not to take them.

 

First off, deep-strike may be unpredictable when you need your one-and-only termicide squad to come down within 6" of a particular target on a particular turn. With GKs though, there are several things making the situation better. First off, you can have a large number (potentially all) of your units deep-strike, meaning a much greater likelihood that at least 1 will come down on an given turn. You also have 24" assault weapons (and lots of them), meaning you don't have to try to get quite so close. And lastly, Psychic Communion, while not always available, often can make a huge difference in bringing your units on exactly when you want them.

 

Second, even if you're not deep-striking, transports aren't always the way to go. Unlike most marines, we don't need to get within 12" to be effective. All GK squads have a 30" threat bubble (6" move and 24" shoot). 30" is a long way, and PAGK squads are almost never out of range from the first turn on. While units like Purifiers certainly benefit from being much closer, walking Strike and Purgation squads are often at their happiest mowing down enemies from 22" away.

 

Now, transports can certainly be used as mobile cover for walking PAGK squads. And I'll happily admit that that's often well worth the investment. But if you're just over the points limit and looking for something to cut, I think it's much more important to keep a squad at 10 men than to go down to 8 and keep the Rhino.

 

It all comes down to preference, really. The wonderful thing about GKs is that they aren't confined to one methodology like so many other armies are. There is no one "right" answer.

[Reclusiarch Darius]

Statistics help as a guide, but this is the reality;

 

I shoot your Strike squad, I kill the same number of dudes as a Purifier squad. Difference is, what remains will be less threatening. Purifiers still remain combat effective at 5 manz (they're like Terminators but without the better armour), 5 Strike dudes really don't scare anyone.

 

I'm really not that enamoured of Strike squads or Purgation for that matter. You can combine the two with a Purifier squad, and get a decent assault unit into the bargain. Their only problem is mobility, and thats easily solved with the addition of a Rhino (in smaller games) or a Stormraven (in larger games where you can afford the overhead). Heavy Support is hotly contested for points and slots for Dreadknights and/or Dreadnoughts.

 

Strike squads are highly overrated by the internets. I've had a few practise games now with the new codex, and Purifiers are made of win. Every game, they consistently destroy infantry and tanks. Those two extra psycannons make all the difference, especially when you pause to take up a sniping position, then rain a boatload of psycannon into the enemy. Combat squadding means you don't have to waste firepower (although I usually leave them together), and when you multi-charge both units you can double 'Cleansing Flame', which is just plain brutal.

By comparison, Strike squads land, get maybe a turn of shooting off, then get counter-assaulted/shot to hell and die. They might win fights with Tactical Marines, but if you pile anything with I5 or lots of S4 attacks into them, they lose so much combat effectiveness with every casualty that by the end, you're just flailing with the Justicar's hammer and making a lot of 'No Retreat' saves.

 

I'm still experimenting with Rhinos and without, but as noted by others, you have a 30" threat range, so as far as getting range goes, you'll be out for one or two turns, then you'll be annhilating squads at will. I'd recommend making maximum use of cover (if you're not mechanised), casting 'Shrouding' from a friendly Librarian, and just bum-rushing until you get within 30".