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Statistical Analysis of Army Lists


Fire and Forge

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I've only posted here a couple of times, but I've been lurking around as a guest for weeks. Most of my time is spent reading tactical articles and unit investigations. Some of my favored articles are "Tactical Terminators Tactica"(Mysticaria), "Sternguard: A Tactical Analysis"(DarkGuard), and "Killhammer Strategy Articles and Discussion"(Warp Angel). I've found all of these articles(and several others, but these were among the most influential) to have a significant effect on the way that I think about the game.

 

Being a statistical geek, and spending a significant amount of time examining army lists looking at composition, I've been noticing some trends. In addition, I notice several generalized questions appearing in the Tactica section regarding army composition(How many troops choices to include, etc.). So, in an effort to prevent some recurrence of these questions, and present some food for thought for others, I'd like to do a statistical analysis of army lists to track some average trends. Pertinent information would include:

 

- Preferred HQ choice(s).

- Number of Troops choices(and preferred composition).

- Preference toward Elite, Fast Attack, or Heavy Support, and selections therein.

- Observed changes in game dynamics across points levels.

 

I'm currently testing my system for this analysis using 10 lists, all at 1500 points, found on the Games Workshop website. However, examining these lists suggests more interest in selling models than actual gaming(not surprising). So while it is acting as a good test to set up criteria, I don't think that it would be of any tactical value.

 

Would something like this be considered valuable to players here? It will essentially be a breakdown of 5th Edition army lists and common ways of building them. If you would care to help, I request the following information:

 

An army list with points values(total list value and total unit values, not individual points cost) following and broken down into Standard FOC.

Level of competition - major competition('Ard Boyz, etc.), minor competition(LGS tournaments), friendly competition(playing with friends).

Fluff level - Following Chapter doctrine entirely(5), or simply using the color scheme and transfers(1)(scale of 1-5, DIY chapters would fall N/A)

Codex used - I'll start with C:SM, but would like to expand into BA, BT, CSM, DA, and SW as it progresses.

 

In order for this to work properly, the lists need to be tried-and-tested lists, not theoretical lists. Their overall effectiveness isn't a major issue, although a W-L-D listing would be helpful.

 

If you're interested in helping out, shoot me a list here or via PM.

 

Fire and Forge!

Hi there. First may I thank you for your kind words in regards to the Tactica articles, it's good to see people benefitting from them. The Killhammer ones in particular changed the way I perceived and played the game, they really are a gem. As for your project, I like the idea of it, although I do feel that this is one thing that's hard to pin down as everything is up to the player. However, I will try to help the best I can, so here's my latest list, 1750pts, for friendly and small competitive environments, using C:SM.

 

=HQ=

Chapter Master w/ relic blade, storm shield and digi weapons = 180pts

Honour Guard w/ 5 men, Chapter Champion w/ relic blade, Chapter Banner, Rhino = 260pts

Librarian w/ Null Zone and Avenger = 100pts

 

=Elites=

8x Sternguard w/ heavy flamer, 3x combi-melta, power fist, Rhino = 285pts

 

=Troops=

10x Tactical Marines w/ power fist, combi-melta, meltagun, plasma cannon, Rhino = 250pts

10x Tactical Marines w/ combi-plasma, plasma gun, lascannon, Razorback w/ las plas turret = 275pts

 

=Fast Attack=

2x MM ABs = 100pts

2x Typhoons = 180pts

 

=Heavy Support=

Vindicator w/ dozer blade = 120pts

 

Total = 1750pts

 

So, helpful summary, I've got:

HQ: 3 units, 540pts (30.8%)

Elites: 1 unit, 285pts (16.4%)

Troops: 2 units, 525pts (30%)

Fast Attack: 2 units, 280pts (16%)

Heavy Support: 1 unit, 120pts (6.8%)

 

Percentages are rough and based around AB. Looks like most my points goes into HQ and Troops, fitting I suppose. Please note that this list can combat squad it's Tactical units effectively, or keep them together, giving me a potential of 4 scoring units in objective games while only presenting 2 KPs (plus DTs) in KP games.

 

Hope this helps and is what you were looking for.

 

EDIT: forgot to specify that my Chapter is a DIY Chapter.

  • 2 weeks later...

I've had no need to change my 2000 point army for a loooooong time. My tactics, yes. My army no. Variation is in weapon loadouts, not in units chosen.

 

Captain on a Bike with Relic Blade, Artificer Armor, Hellfire Ammo

 

Tactical Squad - Sgt PF, Flamer, Plasma Cannon, Razorback with Heavy Bolter

Tactical Squad - Sgt PF, Melta Gun, Multi Melta, Rhino

Bike Squad - Sgt PF, Melta Gun, Melta Gun, Multi-Melta attack bike

 

6x TH/SS Terminators

Ironclad Dreadnaught with meltagun and ironclad launchers, Deathwind drop pod

 

Land Raider Crusader w/Multi-Melta

Vindicator

Thunderfire Cannon

 

Land Speeder Typhoon

 

It plays funky and needs to be reactive to terrain, opponent, and current battlefield conditions to be effective, but I've never felt outmatched by anyone.

This list has won me a couple of tournaments (not huge ones but one with 10 players and one with 25 or so) and has proven very effective in friendly games as well. This a DIY Chapter but fits well into the confines of their fluff. Small changes in weapon loadouts have crept in over time and sometimes the Extra Armor on the Dreadnought and the Whirlwind have been replcaed with a Thunderfire Cannon but here it is:

i

HQ (100)

 

Librarian

Powers:

Null Zone

Quickening

Total=100

 

Troops (650)

 

Scouts

5 additional Scouts

Missile Launcher

Camo Cloaks

Total=180

 

Scouts

Sgt:

Power Fist

Combi-Melta

Total=110

 

Scouts

Sgt:

Power Fist

Combi-Melta

Total=110

 

 

Tactical Squad

5 additional Marines

Plasma Cannon

Melta Gun

Rhino

Sgt:

Power Fist

Combi-Melta

Total=250

 

Elites (620)

 

Terminator Assault Squad

Thunder Hammer/Storm Shield (x5)

Land Raider Redeemer

Multi-Melta

Extra Armor

Total=465

 

Dreadnought

Multi-Melta

Extra Armor

Drop Pod

Total=155

 

Fast Attack (130)

 

Land Speeder Storm

Multi-Melta

Total=65

 

Land Speeder Storm

Multi-Melta

Total=65

 

Heavy Support (350)

 

Devastator Squad

Missile Launcher (x2)

Lascannon (x2)

Razorback

Twin-Linked Lascannon

Total=265

 

Whirlwind 85

 

Army Total=1850

 

HQ- 1 unit, 100 points (5.4%)

Troops- 4 units, 1 transport, 650 points (35.1%)

Elites- 2 units, 2 transports, 620 points (33.5%)

Fast Attack- 2 units, 130 points (7.0%)

Heavy Support- 2 units, 1 transport, 350 points (18.9%)

Here's my list from this year's 'Ard Boyz. It was very successful, helping me win both the preliminaries and semi-finals. Sadly, we won't see how it fares at the finals as I was unable to attend <_< It's an extension from lists starting at 1500 going up to 2500, many of which have won several tournaments at local game stores.

 

I've tried to keep to the Salamanders fluff as much as possible, keeping out speeders, and limiting the use of fast attack and scouts. A squad of Firedrakes always makes it into the list to support their brothers with some precision killing.

 

Playstyle generally consists of never reserving any units and hitting as hard and fast as possible. I try to keep my opponent on their heels and reacting to what I'm doing, rather than trying to counter their gameplan.

 

HQ

Vulkan He'stan - 190

 

Elites

Assault Terminators - 5X T.Hammer & S.Shield - 200

Land Raider Redeemer - Multi-Melta, Extra Armor - 265

Sternguard - 5x combi-melta - 275

Rhino - 35

Dreadnought - 2x Twin-linked Autocannons - 125

 

Troops

Tactical - Flamer, Plasma Cannon - 175

Rhino - 35

Tactical - Flamer, Plasma Cannon - 175

Rhino - 35

Tactical - Meltagun, Multi-Melta - 175

Rhino - 35

Tactical - Meltagun, Multi-Melta - 175

Rhino - 35

 

Fast Attack

Attack Bikes - 2x Multi-Melta - 100

Attack Bikes - 2x Multi-Melta - 100

 

Heavy Support

Vindicator - Siege Shield - 125

Vindicator - Siege Shield - 125

Predator - Lascannon Sponsons - 120

 

Total = 2500

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