The Tyrant.

[Kol Saresk]

So would a Chaos Lord with dual Lightning Claws work better since they get re-roll misses on to hits? Or would it not matter since the average on wounding would be the same?

 

Oh and by the way so you don't feel like we're using you Redbeard, how do you do the math to figure it out?

[Iron Lord]

I figure it out something like this.

 

Vs an opponent of equal Str, Toughness, WS.

 

12 attacks with a powersword & pistol = 6 hits (average) = 3 wounds.

Probability of any one attack hitting+wounding= 3/12.

 

12 attacks with lightning claws = 6 hits. 3 wounds, 3 failures which can be rerolled. On rerolling, an average of 2 more wounds: 5 wounds on average.

Probability of any one attack hitting+wounding = 5/12.

 

Mastercrafted allows you to reroll one To Hit roll per turn- lightning claws allow you to reroll all to wound rolls.

[Rain]

Although this argument is kind of moot given that PA HQs are uniformly bad in my opinion, I'll throw in my 2c. Jeske is not arguing that given optimal conditions Huron performs worse than a DW lord, he is arguing that those optimal conditions are much more difficult to attain with Huron. Why? Because A.) he does not have wings and B.) he depends largely on a psychic power to do damage.

 

The important difference between relying on warptime and relying on not rolling a 1 are that rolling that 1 is just a constant threat, it's similar to the chance of rolling a 1 on my Archon's shadowfield or whatever else, sure it's very bad when it happens and it makes sense that you would want to mitigate that risk but the important thing to consider is that your opponent knows if he has psychic defense or not and if he does, he will try to keep it near your psychic units. There is no way for your opponent to increase your DW lord's chances of punching himself, there are ways for him to increase the chance of warptime wiffing or periling, although the hit to Huron is not as large if that happens, it does screw his expected wounds inflicted. Oh, and just assuming that warptime goes off when mathing in the first place is unfair I believe, you should do two calcs and do something like (8/9)*(with warptime)+(1/9)*without warptime to at least build in the natural failure rate without runes or whatnot.

 

Anyway, my point is that Huron gives your opponent more opportunity to pretty much make him a non-issue by shutting down warptime, or for armies that lack psyhic defense (like Dark Eldar) he would just get shredded regardless, but then so would a DW lord, and really so would a DP (because of mass poison) though again the DP would still be far and away the best choice in my opinion because at least IF he can get into CC because of clever cover/screening he is quite annoying for most DE units to get rid of, unlike a PA HQ which I consider a complete non-issue with my army, they almost never even get to strike.

[Apostle Redbeard]

So would a Chaos Lord with dual Lightning Claws work better since they get re-roll misses on to hits? Or would it not matter since the average on wounding would be the same?

 

Oh and by the way so you don't feel like we're using you Redbeard, how do you do the math to figure it out?

 

The lightning claws would have the same chance to hit against T4 (both reroll wounds), increased chance against T5 and <T4, but lower chances against >T6. I'm working all of this out using basic probability. For example, if we use Huron's fist against MEQs as an example:

 

He hits on a 3+, so 2/3 of his initial rolls will hit. He then gets to reroll his misses. Since 2/3 hit, 1/3 will initially miss, so he rerolls 1/3 of his attacks. These again have a 2/3 chance to hit, so his total chance to hit is the sum of the initial roll's chance and the reroll's chance. That gives us 2/3 + 1/3*2/3 = 8/9 chance of hitting per attack.

 

Wound rolls are exactly the same, except he wounds on 2+, so wounds with probability 5/6, and rerolls 1/6 of his dice. So you get 5/6 + 1/6*5/6 = 35/36 chance of wounding per hit. It's these incredibly high chances to pass each roll that make Huron's low base attack value deceptive.

 

A good example is the claws being counterintuitively better per attack than the Nurgle DW against T5. We work that case out as follows:

 

Nurgle DW wounds on 4+, so probability of wounding is 1/2

Claws wound on 5+ with rerolls on the failing 2/3 of the dice, so probability of wounding is 1/3 + 2/3*1/3 = 0.556

 

This applies regardless of the WS of the target, since the DW and claws doesn't affect chances to hit. The LC lord (with MoK, of course) gets 6 attacks on the charge. If we say that your lord has a chance P to hit with an attack, then the expected number of wounds caused against T5 will be

 

6.67P*1/2 = 3.33P with the Nurgle DW (6.67 charging attacks)

6P*0.556 = 3.34

 

So the performance against T5 is virtually the same, so it's down to personal preference - do you want cheap reliability (claws), or a chance to kill more and T4(5) on your lord (Nurgle DW)?

 

It gets a bit more complicated when we bring master-crafting and the Khorne DW into it, but the general idea would be the same.

 

As an aside, I'd always work out the chance of wounding per attack before multiplying by the number of attacks. It lets you see how reliably you'll be causing wounds. The higher the probability per attack, the less likely you'll have an above- or below-average round of combat, so you can decide how much of a gamble you want to take.

[Kol Saresk]

Okay, I have to ask because I am unfamiliar with the terms, but if I'm getting this right than DP is Daemon Prince, DW lord is a Daemon Weapon Lord but what is PA or DP? And since a Lord with Lightning Claws seems to be one of the better choices for CC would a jump pack, a bike or even a daemon mount help solve the issue of getting INto CC? I admit that it would be weird to see a biker with claws.

[Apostle Redbeard]

Although this argument is kind of moot given that PA HQs are uniformly bad in my opinion, I'll throw in my 2c. Jeske is not arguing that given optimal conditions Huron performs worse than a DW lord, he is arguing that those optimal conditions are much more difficult to attain with Huron. Why? Because A.) he does not have wings and B.) he depends largely on a psychic power to do damage.

 

I know jeske's point, and I do agree there is more to think about if you want to build a strategy for using a character, but he blatantly stated 'x kills more than y' without any evidence for it, which annoys my mathematical side. Of course, a DP outperforms both, and both will get shredded by anybody with the means to do so.

 

On that note, you make a good point about Warptime's fail rate. Running the numbers Huron's overall performance without psychic modifiers would be 3.29 MEQ, which still outperforms the DW lord. Naturally, the chances of PotW are 0.055, compared to 0.167 chances of the DW docking a wound from the lord.

[Apostle Redbeard]

Okay, I have to ask because I am unfamiliar with the terms, but if I'm getting this right than DP is Daemon Prince, DW lord is a Daemon Weapon Lord but what is PA or DP? And since a Lord with Lightning Claws seems to be one of the better choices for CC would a jump pack, a bike or even a daemon mount help solve the issue of getting INto CC? I admit that it would be weird to see a biker with claws.

 

PA = power armour, DP = daemon prince, yeah.

 

The trouble with running a bike/pack is that without a raptor/bike unit to hide him in, you'll be hugging terrain until you can zip him into combat, at which point he's doing exactly the same thing a prince does, but doing it a lot worse. I think if I was going to run a Khorne claw lord it'd be with a unit of berzerkers. Like a cheaper, less killy, less likely to kill his own dudes Khârn, if for whatever reason I wasn't just running Khârn.

[the jeske]

I think am missing something here . You want to argue hypothetical in situations which never or almost never happen ? That is an argument for what , because I realy fail to see the backing for the whole huron=good=does more wounds then a lord .

I mean even the realy bad ones like a tzeench one will do better . being stun on a 1/6 is[again am not a math person] less likely to happen then a hood/staff/ stoping him 50% of time and even when he stuns himself he is still alive [because shoting sadly is one sided in w40k] . Huron even if he got in to hth [unlikely] does dies from normal A [again that doesnt have to happen , but against a large number of armies the chance is big] and then fails to cast warp time or worse fails the test and wounds himself the chance of him dieing even without the help of fists is huge .

 

I understand arguing about stuff that may happen [like will a GH unit without counter attack but with totem poped and MoTW+power weapon out perfom a unit of csm in hth] . I understand the rethinking of utilty units [how much is a SP priest realy worth in a BA list and because he is cheaper then corbs is it better to run himx2 or is it better to run corbulo. an important question about range between formation being able to conga etc] which dont realy kill stuff or utilty gear which may change some matches [like is it worth to run 2xchooser of slain to realy hurt infiltration , but then run one totem less or is one chooser enough] . All those are important question which influence the game . The chance of huron out killing a lord is the same as me hiting the olimpics . 0 , why because am not ranked . huron is the same , he doesnt get in to hth and a hvy flamer is not worth the 100+pts when one can get combis for much less on asp champions .

[Bloodcrusade]

Against Hive Tyrant (T6, WS8 MC):

 

Probability hit = 1/3

---

So it turns out the Nurgle DW isn't actually any better against MEQ than Huron, though it outperforms the undivided lord in everything, as expected.

Correct me if I'm wrong here, because I don't have my BRB on hand atm, but doesn't the Lord hit the Tyrant on 4+ no 5+? WS6 vs WS8? That would bump him to 6.67*1/2*1/2=1.67 wounds. Not a whole heck of a lot better but it is a 0.56 wound difference, over several turns it would add up.

 

Kind of disappointing that the Nurgley doesn't do much better against MEq than Huron's Fist+Warptime, and still not a better MC hunter as long as Huron is able to get Warptime off through Shadows. But the math doesn't lie, Huron with his Warptime is showing himself to be a better HQ choice than more and more of the other options.

---

jeske, the chances of NOT getting into close combat with any single character/unit/model? :lol:

If you're close enough to fry a unit with a flamer you're going to be close enough to launch an assault or be assaulted. Unless you want to change your argument that template weapons are completely trash horrible and shouldn't be taken in the first place because the unit isn't going to be close enough to hit the enemy with it's flamer, which I can't imagine you doing.

 

Redbeard isn't arguing hypothetical situations, he's doing hard number crunching with as few uncontrolled variables as possible, and in the appropriate situation removing the variables altogether(Warptime, DW, etc.). Throwing blind statements out like "Even the really bad ones like a Tzeentch one will do better" isn't backing your side any, as it's already proven that an Unmarked Lord is beaten out be Huron. And that Unmarked Lord is better in CC than a Tzeentch Lord because of his +1 Strength causing more wounds than the Tzeentch's Str4.

Being hooded or not is irrelevant because the numbers are being done in a controlled environment by maintaining the assumption that Warptime goes through.

 

This discussion would be better suited if you would stop doing random metaphors and similes that distract from the topic and stayed on subject, which is currently the comparison of how Huron stacks up against Lords/HQs with various equipment loadouts and why he is better/worse in CC or shooting. However since you keep mentioning how much better a Tzeentch Lord is against Huron, I'm curious now what model would do better in both Shooting and Assault phases, might have to do some math myself now.

[Bloodcrusade]

Did some math, came out with(1/6=.17 1/3=.33, 2/3=.67, 5/6=.83):

(NOTE: These are solid numbers and can result in lower/higher scores over longer equations than actually imputing each fraction)

Shooting:

3.33 average shots from the Deathscreamer means: 3.33*(5/6)*(1/2)=1.38 Dead MEq

In 4+ Cover: 3.33*(5/6)*(1/2)*(1/2)= 0.69 Dead MEq

Assuming the Heavy Flamer hits 5 Models(Fair average, seen this number used in many Math-hammer systems including 40K-Metrics) and Warptime is up: 5*(2/3+(2/3*1/3))*(1/3)=1.47 Dead MEq

No Warptime Heavy Flamer: 5*(2/3)*(1/3):1.11 Dead MEq

 

The difference between non-Warptime flamer and the Deathscreamer is only .27 unsaved wounds, hardly negligible. Same as with Warptime, only .09 more wounds than the Deathscreamer. Hardly noticeable differences, but Huron is better than the Tzeentch Lord in the Shooting phase when Warptime is up. However if the squad is able to be granted cover, even with-out Warptime the Heavy Flamer will kill on average 161% more than the Deathscreamer.

 

Assault:

6.67 attacks from the Lord: 6.67*(2/3)*(1/2)=2.23 Dead MEq

4 Attacks from Huron w/Warptime(PowerWeapon): 4*(2/3+(2/3*1/3))*(1/2+(1/2*1/2))=2.67 Dead MEq

(Fist): 4*(2/3+(2/3*1/3))*(5/6+(5/6*1/6))=3.46

With-out Warptime(PowerWeapon):4*(2/3)*(1/2)=1.34 Dead MEq

(Fist):4*(2/3)*(5/6)=2.22 Dead MEq

 

The Lord is noticeably better at Int5 when Huron fails to provide Warptime, however when he has Warptime up the PowerWeapon will do better than the Lord's Daemon Weapon because of Rerolls and the Fist is dramatically out performing the DW with Warptime active.

 

Comparing Huron to a Lord with Daemon Weapon though had also made me curious how he stacks up against a Sorceror with Warptime active:

Sorceror: 5 attacks on the charge

With Warptime: 5*(2/3+(2/3*1/3))*(1/2+(1/2*1/2))= 3.34 Dead MEq

With-out Warptime: 5*(2/3)*1/2)= 1.68 Dead MEq

 

So with Warptime the Sorceror will eat less marines than Huron's Fist w/Warptime, however the Sorceror can still pop Force Weapon to instant gib multi-wound models if he is Tzeentch Marked. However that's really only relevant against higher Toughness models such as Carnifex, Tyrants, Mephiston, etc. who won't be insta-paste from Huron's PowerFist already.