apothecary math

[henrywalker]

so from what i've gathered it seems to be a fairly prevalent opinion that apothecaries are no worth their 75 points.

 

I just crunched some numbers and unless i've made a mistake i think that they are actually very good.

 

with a regular paladin, you have 2 wounds and a 2+ save. lets assume that we are hit and wounded automatically with an unlimited number of attacks that are taken on the armour (not invun)

 

if i have no apothecary i have a 1 in 6 chance of loosing a wound for every attack ie if i am attacked 6 times in all probability i will loose the wound. i have two wounds so that is 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36. so a paladin with no apothecary will be likely to die from 36 attacks

 

if i have an apothecary i have a 1 in 6 chance of loosing a wound times a 1 in 2 chance of loosing a wound for every attack which means i have a 1 in 12 chance of loosing a wound for each attack. ie if i am attacked 12 times in all probability i will loose the wound. i have two wounds so that is 1/12 * 1/12 = 1/144. so a paladin with no apothecary will be likely to die from 144 attacks

 

over a 5 man squad this means that my apothecary allows my paladins to take 720 attacks as oppose to the 180 if i had no apothecary

 

for a 10 man squad with apothecary they can withstand 1440 attacks compared to 360 with no apothecary.

 

To me that math seems to scream that apothecaries are very worth it

 

 

 

so, have i got my math wrong (it is currently 2am) or have i missed something else?

[Marid]

I don't think you can simply discount AP1 and AP2 weapons in your analysis. The apothecary doesn't help against melta or lascannons and those spell trouble that are only really countered by more bodies. For the cost of an apothecary upgrade you can have another paladin with a psycannon.

[henrywalker]

i'm not discounting them, the FNP will have a similar effect in quadrupling the survivability but it will make the math more fiddly.

 

if you insist though. assuming i am being hit with something that makes me use my invulnerable, assuming i don't have a sword or anything so its a 5+ i have a 5/6 chance of loosing a wound or, with apothecary i have a 5/12 chance of loosing a wound.

 

so, 5/6*5/6 = 25/36 = 200/288

5/12 * 5/12 = 25/144 = 50/288

 

so with the apothecary on my invulnerable save i am surviving 4 times more attacks than without him. this will always be true as i have 2 wounds and FNP gives me a 1/2 chance, no matter what the original save is i will always survive 4 times more wounds than normal.

 

over a 5 man squad i withstand 29 attacks instead of 7

over a 10 man squad i withstand 58 attacks instead of 29

[nurglez]

I've played quite a few games with Draigo wing, using 15 pallies, and its not so much that I don't think its worth it, but that I would much rather spend those 75 points else where. Even without an apoth pallies are pretty tough vs small arm fire. Especially with a large squad and full wound allocation. I'm sure an apoth would help me out at times, but think of what else you could spend 75 points on...

 

I have never used a banner or apoth. And my record is pretty good so far.

[Marid]

if you insist though. assuming i am being hit with something that makes me use my invulnerable, assuming i don't have a sword or anything so its a 5+ i have a 5/6 chance of loosing a wound or, with apothecary i have a 5/12 chance of loosing a wound.

 

I think you're forgetting that Feel No Pain does not work against wounds caused by AP1 or AP2 weapons or power weapons. I.e., anything you would use your inv. save against. It also doesn't help against Instant Death from S8+ weapons, which is another problem for expensive Paladins.

 

So yes, against small arms and S7 AP3 or lesser weapons, FNP is great to have. But against the real threats against expensive 2-wound models, it doesn't help at all. In the present game of bring as many anti-tank weapons as you can, the Apothecary upgrade doesn't look so good compared to other ways to spend 75 points.

[henrywalker]

fair enough, i guess im really looking at this having today watched 5 paladins killed in 1 assault by DAEMONS!!!

 

so depending on what your facing the apothecary can be good.

[Cleon]

I'm sorry, but the Maths in this thread aren't quite right in a couple of places.

 

First off:

if i have no apothecary i have a 1 in 6 chance of loosing a wound for every attack ie if i am attacked 6 times in all probability i will loose the wound. i have two wounds so that is 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36. so a paladin with no apothecary will be likely to die from 36 attacks

 

Not quite.

 

2 wounds is 1/6 for one wound, then 1/6 for the other so assuming the dice behave you'd lose both wounds after 12, not 36 wounds.

 

With an apothecary this becomes 1/12 for each wound so 1/24.

 

i'm not discounting them, the FNP will have a similar effect in quadrupling the survivability but it will make the math more fiddly.

 

if you insist though. assuming i am being hit with something that makes me use my invulnerable, assuming i don't have a sword or anything so its a 5+ i have a 5/6 chance of loosing a wound or, with apothecary i have a 5/12 chance of loosing a wound.

 

so, 5/6*5/6 = 25/36 = 200/288

5/12 * 5/12 = 25/144 = 50/288

 

so with the apothecary on my invulnerable save i am surviving 4 times more attacks than without him. this will always be true as i have 2 wounds and FNP gives me a 1/2 chance, no matter what the original save is i will always survive 4 times more wounds than normal.

 

With an invulnerable of 5++, thats a 2/3 (4/6) not 5/6 chance of losing a wound.

 

so you're looking at losing a guy for every 3 wounds (assuming no ID) as 2 fails and 1 save (as you can't use FNP).

 

Or to put it another way, assume you're fired at by a squad of guard veterans at under 12" (3 melta guns, 6 lasguns and a pistol BS4).

 

the las weapons are 13 shots at 3+ hit, 5+ wound, 2+ save.

so 13 * 2/3 * 1/3 * 1/6 = 1/2 so Half a wound, with FNP 1/4 of a wound

the melta weapons are 3 shots at 3+ hit, 2+ wound, 5+ save

so 3* 2/3 * 5/6 * 2/3 = 1 and 1/9 at insta death, medic doesn't help.

 

Difference given by medic is between losing 1 guy and maybe taking a wound, or losing one guy and a 50/50 on a wound.

 

I think the medic has a place, but only in all terminator armies (GKT and Pallies) as then your opponent can't attempt to use his weaker weapons on the power armour and his AP1, AP2 on the 2+ saves.

[Lady_Canoness]

We have to be the only army in the entire game where FNP becomes 'not worth it', which I think is a joke. Sure metlas and plasmas will wreck face, but then again FNP makes Paladins all but immune to saturation of fire, not to mention that it is conferred onto any character(s) that join(s).

 

I had unit of 5 Paladins and 2 attached characters tank fire from 2 annihilation barges, 10 deathmarks, and a a couple squads of warriors (and recieved and overturn a charge of 10 wraiths in one assault phase) for the better part of an entire game - during which FNP stopped a total of seven wounds getting through, and allowed the Paladins the march the heart of the necron army and kill everything in their way while other units escaped relatively unscathed.

Say what you will about AP1 and 2 getting through, but having a 50% chance of ignoring a dread roll of 1 is too great to pass up in my books. I've run into a lot of players that agree that FNP on Paladins makes them way more daunting than mere 2-wound terminator armour.

 

In my opinion, this argument is just another way that 40k on the internet comes across as being out of touch with 40k on the table top.

[nurglez]

I disagree, but this is based on my experiences. I use Draigo wing. My entire force is paladins. My core force is Draigo and 15 paladins (6 psycannon's and 3 mced weps to abuse wound allocation). This leaves me with 260 points, which I spend on my dk. Sure i could take the pt off the dk to give my big squad fnp, but to me a shunting dk is way better. Every time I make a list I just don't factor in an apothecary, or a brotherhood banner. And I do fine without them.

[The Holy Heretic]

Sure FNP can save your bacon, but so can more units and other toys :D

 

What buggers me about the apothecary, is how the upgrade just has deathstar stamped all over it, and deathstars are neither tactically challenging nor fun to play - or play against.

 

Then there is the math.. A full deathstar has 10 extra wounds to burn vs. small arms, thats 60 armour saves to roll, if its bolter fire from marines, then that takes 120 hits, which again takes 180 shots to be fired - thats quite a lot of shooting. Now do the math with guard lasguns, 60 armour saves, 180 hits, 360 shots.. How many shots are actually fired during your games? Especially since most small arms will be hidden away in transports and never even brought to bear on the pallies.

 

Sure its easy to get caught in the golly-paladins-are-super-über mentality, but truth is you don't need all the toys to have a good unit. In fact, you'll rarely have need of the full wound allocation options, a 10 man unit of paladins will usually be a waste if deployed as one, compared to being able to shoot at more targets and herd opposing units around.

[spec.ops]

My logic:

-boost strengths

-buff weakness

 

As I'm learning Pal'ies make there money at range and depend on there crack stupid defense and have moves like mick jagger in CC - dance off!

 

After one adds a few PC's, some wound allocation tomfoolery, a nurse with lots of band-aids should come in third.

 

I mean come on!

 

Termi's with 2 wounds + wound allocation + FNP = I'm going home!

[Brother Valerius]

The problem with adding FNP to paladins is that it makes them even better at things they're already great at, while doing nothing to shore up their weaknesses. If it were a cheap upgrade, that's fine... but at 75 points, it comes with a hefty opportunity cost. I just don't think most people would agree that taking paladins from "A" to "A+" at withstanding small arms fire is worth the same to your army as, say, adding a PT to your dreadknight.

[Hellios]

It really depends on what you are playing against... I imagine against many Ork lists that FNP might be worth it... or say against an Eldar player that relies a lot on Dire Avengers and Scatter lasers to kill TEQ... Who knows where the fire dragons are... As people say FNP isn't any good against Demolisher cannons.

 

With My Dark Eldar list for example I would rather someone buys the dreadknight than take FNP on all the paladins. Although I don't find Dragio wing to be much of a challenge with my DE list.

[breng77]

I think what the original post misses is this.

 

Lets just say the math above is right.

 

The math suggests that it will take 360 wounds to kill 10 Paladins w/o the apoth, and 1440 wounds to do so with one. And as such this makes the apoth worth it.

 

Isn't that overkill...remeber these are successful wounds. Which means if we look at bolters, it would take 1080 Bolter shots to kill those paladins w/o an apothecary or the equivalent of 10.8 ten man tactical squads rapid firing for 5 full turns to kill the squad. IS doubling this for 75 points really needed?

[jeffersonian000]

FNP on Paladins is "Failed Saves insurance" (doesn't cover everything, and only has a 50/50 chance of helping when its actually useful). 75pts as the premium for "Failed Saves Insurance". If you think the premium is worth the potential coverage you might receive on the off chance you need it, then paying that premium is worth it to you. If it isn't worth it to you, then it will never be worth it to you. Mathhammer cannot prove that FNP is useful to everyone, all it can show is that mathematically (when the math is done correctly), FNP might turn a roll of a '1' into a '2' or better (50/50 chance). We already know that.

 

SJ

[Blackmoor]

The way I think of it is this way...75 points = 3 wounds worth of Paladins.

 

You rarely will have FNP stop 3 wounds, but you can always use some extra bodies.

[Elric the Silvercoat]

I find that 75 points is worth it. It just doesn't give you FNP but gives you a Wound Allocation slot aswell. Gives you a model that can use Holocast without giving up their Psycannon or Str 5 Storm Bolter shots. I think it gives alot more than just FNP.

[Crynn]

I find that 75 points is worth it. It just doesn't give you FNP but gives you a Wound Allocation slot aswell. Gives you a model that can use Holocast without giving up their Psycannon or Str 5 Storm Bolter shots. I think it gives alot more than just FNP.

 

You are actually turnin. A Negative into a positive. You don't get an extra model to cast holocaust, you lose a storm bolter do if you're in range in wil l generally the model that will cast holocaust. The woun allocation pat is almost irrelivant when for 5 points you can get a re-roll to hit on any models weapons that will give further wound allocation as well.

 

To further show how irrelivant the apoc is consider that 90% of the time you lose a Paladin it is to a str 8+ weapon generally with a low ap and then if the player is smart shoots small weapons after the big weapons. Let's say they cause 2 wounds on your paladins and due to wound allocation kill none. Next turn they do the same thing and shoot high str weapons first causing 2 lascannons wounds, you put those wounds on wounded paladins and suddenly when they die the apothacary becomes irrelivant as losing a one wounded model to an instant death attack is almost exactly the same in effect as passing fnp before but then still being removed by a lascannon.

 

My grey knight army runs with 10 paladins and I can honestly say I would lose maybe 1 in 15 paladins to non instant death or ap 2 weapons and I in all my games I would not have played a single one where the apothacary would have been worthwhile.

 

Blackmoore is correct and is also very experienced with paladins, as well as myself and any other competitive paladin players I can think we all don't use the apothacary, Nurgle as well doesn't use one. Remember the apothacary has to do more than save 75 points worth of paladins it also has to mimic 75 points worth of other units killing your opponent. A dread will save more paladins that an apoc most games when it takes out a vendetta and stops that from killing paladins.

 

Regards,

 

Crynn

[Elric the Silvercoat]

You are actually turnin. A Negative into a positive. You don't get an extra model to cast holocaust, you lose a storm bolter do if you're in range in wil l generally the model that will cast holocaust. The woun allocation pat is almost irrelivant when for 5 points you can get a re-roll to hit on any models weapons that will give further wound allocation as well.

 

I didn't say anything about an extra model, I just said that it gives you a models that doesn't have to give up its other shots to use Holocaust like the other ones have to. And I am just stating what it gives you and why I think it is worth the points.

 

To further show how irrelivant the apoc is consider that 90% of the time you lose a Paladin it is to a str 8+ weapon generally with a low ap and then if the player is smart shoots small weapons after the big weapons. Let's say they cause 2 wounds on your paladins and due to wound allocation kill none. Next turn they do the same thing and shoot high str weapons first causing 2 lascannons wounds, you put those wounds on wounded paladins and suddenly when they die the apothacary becomes irrelivant as losing a one wounded model to an instant death attack is almost exactly the same in effect as passing fnp before but then still being removed by a lascannon.

 

And if you have Dreadnoughts, Dreadknights, and other vehicles the other player may not have the ability to throw alot of heavy weapons at them but may have alot of small arms fire and I have rolled alot of 1s before and with my luck the Apoc could save me more than 75 points worth of pallies over the whole game.

 

My grey knight army runs with 10 paladins and I can honestly say I would lose maybe 1 in 15 paladins to non instant death or ap 2 weapons and I in all my games I would not have played a single one where the apothacary would have been worthwhile.

 

Good for you. There are not people that are as lucky as you.

 

Blackmoore is correct and is also very experienced with paladins, as well as myself and any other competitive paladin players I can think we all don't use the apothacary, Nurgle as well doesn't use one. Remember the apothacary has to do more than save 75 points worth of paladins it also has to mimic 75 points worth of other units killing your opponent. A dread will save more paladins that an apoc most games when it takes out a vendetta and stops that from killing paladins.

 

I know but 75 points by itself will not get you a Dread. I understand that other player have done well without one but I have found that in a game that you have to put your live in the hands of the dice gods every little things help. You don't have to try to make people feel bad about taking a Apoc if they want to take it and find it worth it then let them. I am not saying that you sure take one but I am givng my opinion on why I think they are worth the points. And you are giving your opinion why they are not.

[Capt_Darius]

But, by giving up his storm bolter, doesn't the apothecary permanently give up his shots in order to give FNP to a unit that doesn't need it? How is a model giving up his shooting permanently better than giving up his shooting temporarily?

[Crynn]

You are actually turnin. A Negative into a positive. You don't get an extra model to cast holocaust, you lose a storm bolter do if you're in range in wil l generally the model that will cast holocaust. The woun allocation pat is almost irrelivant when for 5 points you can get a re-roll to hit on any models weapons that will give further wound allocation as well.

 

I didn't say anything about an extra model, I just said that it gives you a models that doesn't have to give up its other shots to use Holocaust like the other ones have to. And I am just stating what it gives you and why I think it is worth the points.

 

To further show how irrelivant the apoc is consider that 90% of the time you lose a Paladin it is to a str 8+ weapon generally with a low ap and then if the player is smart shoots small weapons after the big weapons. Let's say they cause 2 wounds on your paladins and due to wound allocation kill none. Next turn they do the same thing and shoot high str weapons first causing 2 lascannons wounds, you put those wounds on wounded paladins and suddenly when they die the apothacary becomes irrelivant as losing a one wounded model to an instant death attack is almost exactly the same in effect as passing fnp before but then still being removed by a lascannon.

 

And if you have Dreadnoughts, Dreadknights, and other vehicles the other player may not have the ability to throw alot of heavy weapons at them but may have alot of small arms fire and I have rolled alot of 1s before and with my luck the Apoc could save me more than 75 points worth of pallies over the whole game.

 

My grey knight army runs with 10 paladins and I can honestly say I would lose maybe 1 in 15 paladins to non instant death or ap 2 weapons and I in all my games I would not have played a single one where the apothacary would have been worthwhile.

 

Good for you. There are not people that are as lucky as you.

 

Blackmoore is correct and is also very experienced with paladins, as well as myself and any other competitive paladin players I can think we all don't use the apothacary, Nurgle as well doesn't use one. Remember the apothacary has to do more than save 75 points worth of paladins it also has to mimic 75 points worth of other units killing your opponent. A dread will save more paladins that an apoc most games when it takes out a vendetta and stops that from killing paladins.

 

I know but 75 points by itself will not get you a Dread. I understand that other player have done well without one but I have found that in a game that you have to put your live in the hands of the dice gods every little things help. You don't have to try to make people feel bad about taking a Apoc if they want to take it and find it worth it then let them. I am not saying that you sure take one but I am givng my opinion on why I think they are worth the points. And you are giving your opinion why they are not.

 

Point 1 - Let me rephrase that. You say you don't have to give up your storm bolter shot to cast holocaust when you have an apoc in the unit. You are still turning a negative into a positive as i'd rather have to give up a storm bolter to use holocaust because it would mean when I'm not casting holocaust I have an extra storm bolter!

 

Point 2 - Small arms fire is more likely to kill dreads knights than paladins as they have no wound allocation. Yes the opponent doesn't always have enough str 8 ap2 so it can have some use but I think 75 points to put towards something or a 75 point unit such as 11 acolyteswith storm bolters will kill more units and thus save more paladins than an apothacary will.

 

Point 3 - There is no luck involved. It is just exceedingly difficult to kill paladins through small arms fire.

 

Point 4 - Refer to point 2. Also I am aware you are giving your opinions on why you should use one and I am giving my opinions on why you should not but isn't that what this thread is for, at least in part? I'm not seeing the problem here.

 

Regards,

Crynn

[Grey Mage]

But, by giving up his storm bolter, doesn't the apothecary permanently give up his shots in order to give FNP to a unit that doesn't need it? How is a model giving up his shooting permanently better than giving up his shooting temporarily?

That depends on if you think they need FNP or not.

 

Ive bladestormed marneus calgar and his honor guard to death more times than I can count with a couple units of dire avengers. In alot of places IG are prevalent, and poison-heavy DE are still a thing around here, as are Tau- who wound marines fairly often.

 

If your meta is heavy on anti-infantry like mine is you might find the points for an apothecairy, especially in larger (7+) squad sizes. I agree that its not priced as a must have, but I think thats for the best when it comes to game balance.

[Elric the Silvercoat]

If FNP help you make three saves on a Pallies Squad then he has made his points back.

[Crynn]

If FNP help you make three saves on a Pallies Squad then he has made his points back.

 

Not true. In most cases you will get hit by an instant death weapon at some point and will simply place it on a wounded model that the apoc may ahve saved. The model dies from the weapon and loses it's remaining wound insteas of the two it would have had if the apoc had saved meaning the apocs fnp saving a wound actually counts for nothing. This scenario happens more often than not hence my comment of a bout 1 in 15 of my paladin death comes from a non instant death or FnP allowing wound. Remember FnP also does nothing against things like rapid fire plasma.

 

Not to mention you completely ignored my other point of the apoc having to do more than just stop 3 saves if you had essentially 1.5 more paladins they would also be doing additional dmg to the enemy causing the enemy to take more loses and you to take less.So no, passing 3 FnP saves does not even get an apoc close to making it's points back.

 

Regards,

Crynn

[Elric the Silvercoat]

If FNP help you make three saves on a Pallies Squad then he has made his points back.

 

Not true. In most cases you will get hit by an instant death weapon at some point and will simply place it on a wounded model that the apoc may ahve saved. The model dies from the weapon and loses it's remaining wound insteas of the two it would have had if the apoc had saved meaning the apocs fnp saving a wound actually counts for nothing. This scenario happens more often than not hence my comment of a bout 1 in 15 of my paladin death comes from a non instant death or FnP allowing wound. Remember FnP also does nothing against things like rapid fire plasma.

 

Not to mention you completely ignored my other point of the apoc having to do more than just stop 3 saves if you had essentially 1.5 more paladins they would also be doing additional dmg to the enemy causing the enemy to take more loses and you to take less.So no, passing 3 FnP saves does not even get an apoc close to making it's points back.

 

Regards,

Crynn

It does have a Force Weapon so it can still kill stuff the same as a normal paladin.