Scout Sniper Heavy Bolter versus additional sniper

[Jupiter]

I tend to be inclined to probabilities/expected values when making army list decisions. I was just doing some calculations out last night about scout snipers and thought I might share my conclusions.

 

I'm not sure if this has been posted before, and if it has, I apologize for the repeat thread.

 

 

 

Anyway, I was comparing the addition of an extra scout sniper versus a Heavy Bolter upgrade in a basic squad of scout snipers. The additional scout is a little more expensive, but it buys you an additional wound. For leadership checks, the jump from 5 to 6 men in a squad doesn't make a difference, so the only main advantage is the extra wound.

 

Now, for the numbers of expected kills:

 

First, a single sniper will always hit on a 2+ and wound on a 4+, meaning you can expect (15/36) wounds before saves per sniper

 

The Heavy Bolter, on the other hand, will hit on a 4+ and always wound on a 2+, but fires three shots, meaning you can expect (45/36) wounds before saves per sniper. Additionally, the Heavy Bolter has considerably better AP, so you can expect proportionally more unsaved wounds from the bolter.

 

 

 

So, now applying these expected values to the squads:

 

6 Scouts, no bolter:

6 snipers = 6 x (15/36) = 2.5

TOTAL: 2.5 expected wounds before saves, at AP 6, per shooting phase

 

4 snipers & 1 heavy bolter:

4 snipers = 4 x (15/36) = 1.67 at AP 6

1 hellfire heavy bolter = (45/36) = 1.25 at AP 4

TOTAL: 2.92 expected wounds before saves per shooting phase

 

 

So, this leads me to my conclusion. Considering the HB is cheaper and more offensively reliable than an additional sniper shot, I would say it's almost always better to take a HB before adding any additional snipers to the squad. However, I didn't look at Missile Launchers and it's impossible to mathematically consider the additional wound of the +1 scout, so I'm still uncertain.

 

 

What do you guys think? When you run scout snipers, which would you rather include, a HB or an additional sniper? And how do MLs match up against the HB? I went with the HB on instinct because it has the same range as the snipers and hellfire rounds make it nearly as reliable.

 

 

 

Thoughts?

 

 

Edit: typo

[Grey Mage]

Why not get the missile launcher, since its more effective against monstrous creatures- the bread and butter of sniper scouts- than the heavy bolter? And often more so than the sniper rifle.

[MagicMan]

Sniper rifles still hit on a 2+...?

 

 

 

I thought that was last edition's rules?

[Mysticaria]

Sniper rifles still hit on a 2+...?

 

 

 

I thought that was last edition's rules?

Yep.. it was. Sadly snipers hit on 4+ and wound on 4+... so they really aren't that useful even against stuff they are good against (MCs, low ld units, etc..).

 

A missile launcher on the other hand... is at least somwhat useful even if it does hit on 4+.

 

-Myst

[Jupiter]

Wow. That was my bad... I haven't used a unit with snipers since last edition (5th has been all orks and Dark Eldar for me). Well that makes it considerably worse...

 

Disregard the mathhammer in that case.

 

So the thought is that missile launchers synergize with the snipers better in terms of ideal targets, etc?

 

 

I still feel stupid for the to-hit error on those snipers... hah oh well

[DarkGuard]

My thought is heavy bolters synergize better with targets for sniper rifles than missile launchers due to it not using their bad BS and having a 2+ wound blast. However, if you take Telion the missile launcher is better as you can fire it at BS6 and it becomes a not so bad anti-tank unit that can hold objectives in cover.

[Kingkaneda]

The HB for the scouts only shoots 1 blast template per turn. If it really did shoot 3 it would be a no-brainer.

[Jupiter]

The HB for the scouts only shoots 1 blast template per turn. If it really did shoot 3 it would be a no-brainer.

 

Again, my bad -- that was a misreading of the rules. I've never used them before so I was looking at the wrong profile. Thanks for the correction.

[Mysticaria]

The HB for the scouts only shoots 1 blast template per turn. If it really did shoot 3 it would be a no-brainer.

Don't forget, you don't have to fire it in blast mode...still have the option to shoot 3x S5 shots... maybe going after light vehicles or well spaced out T3 infantry.

 

Either way, I don't think snipers excel at shooting infantry, and to me the missile at least makes them worth something. With the heavy bolter I've never had them even be mildly useful... so that's why I take the missile.

 

-Myst