Deathwing Metrics

[HJL]

very nice, the lascannon-missile launcher dread is actually called a hellfire dread though :)

[Ajax Tlamunus]

Any Dreadnought with two ranged weapons -- one missile, one other -- is a Hellfire-pattern dreadnought. Just as the one-gun, one-arm are Mars-pattern; the matched dual guns are Mortis-pattern; and the double fisted ones are Furioso-pattern.

[facmanpob]

link to metrics file

 

@Ajax - here is something you may be interested in. I found an excel spreadsheet on the Alice 40k website last year, prior to it closing its doors, which calculated the various metrics in a nice way......but completely forgot I had it! I fixed a couple of errors in the methodology of calculating wounds in close combat caused by power weeapons, but I think there is an error in the shooting section when calculating rending wounds....haven't been able to track it down yet though (the spreadsheet uses lots of IF statements which arer a pain to work through!) :)

 

Anyway, I've uploaded it to the B&C for people's enjoyment....hope its useful. ^_^

 

To use........

 

fill in the boxes at the top on either the shooting or close combat pages (or both), then cview loweer down the page for wounds/glances & penetrations caused against various targets....the spreadsheet calculates GEQ, MEQ, TEQ, T7 Carnifex, and AV10-14

 

Tab 3 is a rersults pages which ranks your entred force against its pooints value (you have to enter the total points cost at the top of the tab)

 

Tabs 4 and 5 are the calculations pages, so please don't mess with these accidentally! ^_^

 

[EDIT - as an aside, we will probably need to check the calculations for hitting vehicles in cc as these have changed in 6th Ed, whereas this spreadsheet was created for 5th Ed]

[Ajax Tlamunus]

I am going to go up against a lot of the collective wisdom of the internet, but I think the Assault Cannon might just be the superior weapon for Deathwing Terminators. We know the assault cannon shreds infantry, but anti-infantry isn't usually as big a worry for Deathwing as anti-tank. So what does it do against tanks?

 

On a roll of a 6, it triggers the Rending USR, becoming AP2 and adding another +d3 to your armor penetration roll.

 

Rending weapons can be tricky to "mathhammer" out the probabilities, because once you roll a 6 against a vehicles AP, you get to roll another d3. So as you notice in the table, the % Glance against AV 12 is 0. That’s because the additional d3 will always take it above the glance value. Factor in the Terminators BS4 and the four shots you get from the gun, and... well... Yee-haw!

 

BS4 Asaaul Cannon (4 Shots)	AV10	AV11	AV12	AV13	AV14
Chance of Glance		44%	44%	0%	15%	15%
Chance of Penetrate		89%	44%	44%	30%	15%
Chance of HP Loss		133%	88%	44%	45%	30%

 

That's some serious dakka. But let's compare it to the Cyclone Missile launcher, which we'll recall is a two-shot weapon.

 

BS4 Krak Missile (2 Shots)	AV10	AV11	AV12	AV13	AV14
Chance of  Glance		22%	22%	22%	22%	22%
Chance of  Penetrate		89%	67%	44%	22%	0%
Chance of  HP Loss		111%	89%	66%	44%	22%

 

The performance of the Cyclone is better against AV12, but that's it and it's a marginal increase even there. Agianst all other AV, the Assault Cannon is simply a better performer.

 

But this does not mean the Cyclone should be neglected, far from it. The Cyclone has a massive range advantage over the Assault Cannon and can be combined with whatever handheld weaponry you chose to give its operator. Therefore, I beleive the player base is best off adopting a truly combined arms approach to Deathwing. Simply sticking thirty TH/SS (with six Cyclones) Termies on the table isn't going to be ideal anymore.

[Isiah]

Interesting stats. Thanks for number crunching.

 

For me the cyclone still edges it due to range, having both hands free for other weapons, and cheapness. It's great for general purpose work. The ac kicks butt when its required to but is pricier and more target-specific thus won't suit every situation.

 

But when it does perform it performs well.

 

A ratio of 2/1 cyclones/acs seems a good fit for multiple DW squads.

 

Cheers

I

[Ajax Tlamunus]

That's the exact ratio I'm shooting for in my Deathwing army... the Cyclone is not bad, not bad at all. But thanks to the number crunching, I know that I'll want to have an Assault Cannon(s) somewhere in my list. I'll also be able to better task my units to deal with certain elements in the enemy's forces. For example, if facing a Dreadnought and a Land Raider, I know who to direct where.

 

Given the small numbers that Deathwing are going to bring to the table, target priority, focused fire, and even the order of which units shoot first, becomes incredibly important. I forget exactly where I read it, but someone once explained all Deathwing tactics in three sentences: "Concentrate your fire. Choose your assaults. Believe in the Emperor." My metrics cannot replace good choices during play or make up for bad luck with the dice... but, I hope they can help us operate under those principles.

[HJL]

hmm according to that every time i fire an autocannon mortis i am guaranteed at least 1 hp damage. I wish that was true!!

[Ajax Tlamunus]

hmm according to that every time i fire an autocannon mortis i am guaranteed at least 1 hp damage. I wish that was true!!

 

It's not true, and I'm cetainly not claiming is. The "Rifleman" Dreadnought will average 1.8 hits that will remove a Hull Point every time it shoots at a Rhino. So we know that there is a high probability that a Rifleman shooting a Rhino is going to strip away one HP. The higher the probability of an event, the more certain we are that the event will occur... but, it is not a guarantee. Every die roll is an independent event, and every die has a "1" on it somewhere.

 

Everytime you fire an autocannon-equipped Mortis, you are probably going to kill one Marine or eat one HP. Just like everytime you roll 1D6 you are probably going to get a 2+. Metrics and mathhammer cannot replace luck.

[HJL]

But if something is over 100% likely surely that would mean that it will always happen?

 

The chances of getting one glance with 4 shots from a twinlinked autocannon on av10 is about 86%

 

The chances of a single glance or better from a cyclone is about 80%

[Ajax Tlamunus]

That's not how it works at all... and I think you're reading my numbers all wrong. I'm listing the average number of a given result in a single set of rolls. The formula to determine how effective any attacker with twin-linked weapons is:# of Shots*(% to Hit*(2-% to Hit))*(% to Equal or Exceed AV)= Glance or Stun Hits

 

So for the Rifleman Dreadnought, against AV10, we're looking at 4*(0.66*(2-0.66))*(0.50)= 1.77 Glance or Stun Hits.

With the Cyclone Missile Launcher, using kraks against AV10, we're looking at 2*(0.66)*(0.83)= 1.08 Glance or Stun Hits.

[HJL]

whoops, my bad, i saw you repost some numbers above with % in and it made me have a brain fart.

 

your numbers are spot on.

[Brother Balthasar]

Belial, Master of Snikt

Equipment Options: Dual Lighting Claws...

DMCC: 1.40

Wouldn't Belial with lightning claws kill 2 MEq a turn?

3 attacks + 1 for 2 claws

4*2/3 hits

8/3 * 1/2 wounds

4/3 + 4/3 *1/2 rerolled wounds

6/3

2 dead marines

[march10k]

Belial, Master of Snikt

Equipment Options: Dual Lighting Claws...

DMCC: 1.40

Wouldn't Belial with lightning claws kill 2 MEq a turn?

3 attacks + 1 for 2 claws

4*2/3 hits

8/3 * 1/2 wounds

4/3 + 4/3 *1/2 rerolled wounds

6/3

2 dead marines

Looks clean to me...regardless, he's I5. A lightning claw belial plus a thundernator sergeant is liquid sex when it comer to challenges! You never have the wrong tool at hand...