Sanguinary Guard versus Assault Squad

[dadieau]

I am noted in my local store for having poor luck with my dice. Now I'm not the worst but I am at least notable. I could never get a feel for an armies worth by playing itm My dice are far too fickle. The only way I can win is to put the best army I can on the table and play it well. Even that is often not enough but it sure helps. I must mathhammer just to have an idea of what might work. I put a lot of effort into what CitAGuy called filter removal. I put a lot of effort into knowing what the average result of my RAS vs Gene Stealers is. I know that an average roll is as rare as a good roll so I don't count on it I just hope for it. This allows me to do well enough that I am starting to get a feel for the game. Which is different than getting a feel for an army.

 

Got a system ? In Vegas they throw you out, in Warhammer your are just maligned. Math hammer is a good tool for some of us. It gives me info I can't get playing.

 

SG vice RAS ? My new theory is put Dante with one Ras and run a SG unit with the other. Cause +2 save is better that +3 and 10 guys is better than 5.

[Deschenus Maximus]

@dadieau: do you use those crappy GW dice to play? If so, upgrade for precision dice, such as those made by Game Science: http://www.gamescience.com/

These will help a lot.

 

@CAG: Very nice analysis. While Sang Guard have certainly been boosted in certain aspects due to 6th ed rules, they also suffer in that plasma is much more desirable and effective.

 

I'm thinking that SG might actually prove to be more useful in mechanized lists than in jump lists - their smaller footprint make them easier to hide completely so that they won't get focused down by plasma at range, and the punch they pack can help Tac Squad-based lists to have more combat presence without having to shell out almost 500 pts (5 assault termies + land raider).

[Captain Idaho]

I dont understand why Mathhammer is getting so much hate in this thread. Yeah it won't win you games, but it is a very useful tool when comparing units. Of course its not a clearcut which unit is better, it all depends. But knowing how effective both units do vs various opposing units is golden information.

 

I think it's more of cautionary tales of reliance on Math-Hammer than anything else. I for one don't deny the importance of knowing what your units are capable of in certain situations. However, it is important to consider a unit's use can also be a whole host of unquantifiable factors (from a mathematical view point).

[JamesI]

I dont understand why Mathhammer is getting so much hate in this thread. Yeah it won't win you games, but it is a very useful tool when comparing units. Of course its not a clearcut which unit is better, it all depends. But knowing how effective both units do vs various opposing units is golden information.

 

I think it's more of cautionary tales of reliance on Math-Hammer than anything else. I for one don't deny the importance of knowing what your units are capable of in certain situations. However, it is important to consider a unit's use can also be a whole host of unquantifiable factors (from a mathematical view point).

The reason people dislike mathhammer can be explained from a game I played last night.

 

Some strength 3 models with Hammer of Wrath assault some of my marines. All four of his attacks wounded. All four of mine failed armor and FNP. A fight I should likely have won destroyed by some bad dice (that also ended any chance I had of getting to the relic and winning). By mathhammer, an extremely unlikely event (about 1/3 of 1 percent of happening).

 

Now, I use Mathhammer. As long as you can accept its limitations its a good tool.

[CitadelArmyGuy]

Some strength 3 models with Hammer of Wrath assault some of my marines. All four of his attacks wounded. All four of mine failed armor and FNP. A fight I should likely have won destroyed by some bad dice (that also ended any chance I had of getting to the relic and winning). By mathhammer, an extremely unlikely event (about 1/3 of 1 percent of happening).

Ouch! That sucks JamesI, those Black Swans really hurt... no gettin around it <_<

[Leksington]

Some strength 3 models with Hammer of Wrath assault some of my marines. All four of his attacks wounded. All four of mine failed armor and FNP. A fight I should likely have won destroyed by some bad dice (that also ended any chance I had of getting to the relic and winning). By mathhammer, an extremely unlikely event (about 1/3 of 1 percent of happening).

Ouch! That sucks JamesI, those Black Swans really hurt... no gettin around it :lol:

Therein lies my criticism of your use of averages. Averages alone don't give you any information about the likelihood of deviations from the average.

 

P.S. That result is not quite a true outlier; that result is (just barely) within three standard deviations. :)

[Remtek]

With any mathmatical equation you do have to factor in variance. If the variance of the equation is high you will need more 'rolls' to justify the average. An example of high variance would be plasma cannons as they scatter frequently. If you fire at a terminator squad the differance between a hit and a miss has a huge impact (high risk high reward). It's a classic example of good on paper, but in reality might be to unreliable for a competitive list.

 

Math is really never flawed, but the person using the math has to factor in variance and other things of a similar nature.