Justiciar with warding stave

[WimvH]

It will on average save an extra 5 armour penetrating wounds or 1 extra non-AP wound over a Sword. PA marines are usually about 20-25 pts/ea, so you're looking at an average benefit of 100-125 points saved for 25 pts of investment.

 

Hmmm, sorry for being a mathematical nitpicker here, but this is not "on average". Since you cannot choose to roll "one" in the sixth time you roll the dice, it will on average show up the third or fourth time. So your "average" benefit is around 60-75.

 

Yup, my old course n statistics makes me a pain to be around :-D

[Brother Maikel]

Hmmm, sorry for being a mathematical nitpicker here, but this is not "on average". Since you cannot choose to roll "one" in the sixth time you roll the dice, it will on average show up the third or fourth time. So your "average" benefit is around 60-75.

 

Yup, my old course n statistics makes me a pain to be around :-D

 

 

Correct. But you also aren't guaranteed to roll a one "1" in just six rolls... it might not happen until the 7th or 8th or 9th.

There's a 40% chance of rolling a 1 in the first three rolls, but only an 80% chance you'll roll a 1 by the 8th or 9th (approximately). So if you look at all the numbers, on average you'll save 5/6 it might just take multiple games. In other words, you might only save 60-75 pts in your first game, but two games later when your Justicar saves 9 wounds in a row and survives the match, he'll have saved 180-200pts worth of PAGK.

[Vash]

Hmmm, sorry for being a mathematical nitpicker here, but this is not "on average". Since you cannot choose to roll "one" in the sixth time you roll the dice, it will on average show up the third or fourth time. So your "average" benefit is around 60-75.

 

Yup, my old course n statistics makes me a pain to be around :-D

 

 

Correct. But you also aren't guaranteed to roll a one "1" in just six rolls... it might not happen until the 7th or 8th or 9th.

There's a 40% chance of rolling a 1 in the first three rolls, but only an 80% chance you'll roll a 1 by the 8th or 9th (approximately). So if you look at all the numbers, on average you'll save 5/6 it might just take multiple games. In other words, you might only save 60-75 pts in your first game, but two games later when your Justicar saves 9 wounds in a row and survives the match, he'll have saved 180-200pts worth of PAGK.

 

I usually roll the dice and see what happens. :(

Math hammering is fine and dandy, but seldom works when you want it to.

 

In one of my games I played with a warding stave I took 37 saves before it went down. Did it make my opponent scream OVERPOWERED!, yes it did.

In the next game I failed on the first roll... and of course, this was in a crucial moment. I had to save atleast one.

[WimvH]

Correct. But you also aren't guaranteed to roll a one "1" in just six rolls... it might not happen until the 7th or 8th or 9th.

There's a 40% chance of rolling a 1 in the first three rolls, but only an 80% chance you'll roll a 1 by the 8th or 9th (approximately). So if you look at all the numbers, on average you'll save 5/6 it might just take multiple games. In other words, you might only save 60-75 pts in your first game, but two games later when your Justicar saves 9 wounds in a row and survives the match, he'll have saved 180-200pts worth of PAGK.

 

LOL! Very true, I guess we'd need to define our understanding of "on average" ;)

 

The example Vash gives here, very aptly explains the limits of mathhammer and statistics in general. Our little discussion about "on average" does so as well.