Points per Grey Hunter wound

[skeletoro]

So I've been wondering about this idea that Lone Wolves make a great fire magnet, and got thinking about their efficiency. So here's a little analysis I did.

 

A plan ol' grey hunter is a remarkably durable unit. With their 3+ saves and relatively low points cost, they can really take a beating. How does a Lone Wolf compare to a grey hunter in terms of efficiency? If a Lone Wolf dies more easily than a comparable number of points spent on grey hunters, then you have to wonder whether their reputation as a fire magnet is well deserved. A disclaimer: I'm going to leave aside the fact that they don't concede kill points. Though very pertinent, I was just interested in analyzing the idea that they're tougher than grey hunters.

 

Let's look at the chain fist + storm shield Lone Wolf at 85 points. Admittedly, you could have just as much durability for 15 points less by downgrading the fist to an axe, but I'm interested in this one because it's the more popular choice, and arguably for good reason.

 

I'm going to compare the Lone Wolf to the grey hunter in 3 contexts: Boltgun, str4 power sword, and Lascannon. I'll compare them using an index I'll calculate called points per grey hunter wound. A value of 15 means that the unit can absorb the same about of fire (of that specific type) as a similarly priced grey hunter pack can before losing all of its wounds. In other words, they are equally points-efficient pincushions. More than 15 means that for each wound your model takes, you're losing more points than an un-upgraded grey hunter unit would concede. Less than 15 means that your unit is more efficient as a pincushion than are grey hunters.

 

Against the bolt gun, the 85 point Lone Wolf model takes 1/2 as many wounds due to the TDA, and 2/3 as many wounds due to FnP. It also has two wounds. So the Lone Wolf will die, on average, as fast as 2 * 3/2 * 2 = 6 grey hunters. Which cost 90 points. At 85 points, the Lone Wolf is marginally more cost effective (vs. bolters) than the Grey Hunters at 85/6 = 14.2 PP GHW.

 

Against the power sword, the Lone Wolf takes 1/6 as many wounds due to the TDA, and 2/3 as many wounds due to FnP. Once again, it has two wounds. In this case, the Lone Wolf can sustain as many attacks as 6 * 3/2 * 2 = 18 grey hunters. Which cost 270 points. The Lone wolf is MUCH more efficient at absorbing power attacks than grey hunters, at 4.7 PP GHW.

 

Against the lascannon, the Lone Wolf takes 1/3 as many wounds due to the storm shield and has 2 wounds. It is debatable whether the Lone Wolf gets the benefit of FnP against a lascannon. Personally, I would lean towards allowing it based upon my reading of the rules, but it seems that most people disagree, so I will assume here that FnP is negated by ID, EW notwithstanding. So, the Lone wolf is equivalent to 3*2 = 6 marines vs. Lascannons - i.e. 14.2 PP GHW.

 

Krak missiles and plasma guns are somewhere in the middle (krak = 7.1, plasma = 9.4), once again assuming that str 8+ attacks negate the Lone Wolf's FnP. If you don't play it that way, Lone Wolves get the same score against lascannons and krak missiles as they do against plasma guns and power swords.

 

So the conclusions I draw from this are that (this particular build of) Lone Wolves are slightly more durable than a similarly priced unit of (un-upgraded) grey hunters against mass fire. However, against some attacks (particularly < str8 AP2 attacks and all AP3 attacks) the Lone Wolf is potentially a lot tougher than a comparable unit of grey hunters.

 

A couple of things not taken into account in the above analysis: Lone Wolves do much better than Grey Hunters vs. blasts, due to the fact that they are only a single unit. Will your opponent choose to fire their blast attacks against them, however? In addition, Lone Wolves get their full complement of attacks after losing half their wounds - this is not true of Grey Hunters. Lastly, Lone Wolves can take Fenrisian Wolves for Look out, Sir!, which are 10 PP GHW vs. lascannons.

[Forté]

You also seem to have forgotten that one model is easier to hide behind cover than 5. And, I can see the weapon choice changing with the new rules too. Twin PP and MotW with two Wolves anyone?

[skeletoro]

You also seem to have forgotten that one model is easier to hide behind cover than 5. And, I can see the weapon choice changing with the new rules too. Twin PP and MotW with two Wolves anyone?

 

It's not that I forgot. The reason I chose to do this analysis is that people talk about Lone Wolves being good as a fire magnet. It's hard to draw fire when you're out of line of sight. But you're right - that does help their survivability!

[Wilytank]

I actually keep my Lone Wolf 25 points cheaper by not giving him a storm shield (plus both the SS and the chainfist are left handed bits). He's got Termie armor, FNP, 2 wounds and eternal warrior, that should be enough. I actually like him to not be too durable or else I can't get him killed when I'm playing PTA. But he's one elite choice that I always take in every game. If the enemy spends time shooting him, those things aren't going to be shooting my scoring units/ranged support/other good stuff; and if they ignore him, that chainfist will wake them right up.

[Wulfebane]

Personally, more often than not I prefer NOT to have my LW draw fire... Atleast not until he's had a chance to make up his points in melee.

 

Imo the only LWs meant to draw fire are those armed with stormshields, which is often not my route anymore.

[skeletoro]

I actually keep my Lone Wolf 25 points cheaper by not giving him a storm shield (plus both the SS and the chainfist are left handed bits). He's got Termie armor, FNP, 2 wounds and eternal warrior, that should be enough. I actually like him to not be too durable or else I can't get him killed when I'm playing PTA. But he's one elite choice that I always take in every game. If the enemy spends time shooting him, those things aren't going to be shooting my scoring units/ranged support/other good stuff; and if they ignore him, that chainfist will wake them right up.

 

At 60 points, you're looking at:

10 points per grey hunter wound vs bolters

3.3 points per grey hunter wound vs power swords

20 points per grey hunter wound vs lascannons.

 

It might be a worthwhile tradeoff. The model will be much more efficient at eating small arms fire, but on the other hand, he doesn't deal with lascannons very well at all. Personally I think I'd go for the stormshield to go for a reduced variance in survivability (you should probably assume that your foe will choose to shoot your Lone Wolf with the best tools they have available, and use other guns to shoot at more viable targets - where possible, anyway).

[skeletoro]

By the way, this measure could be used to compare units in terms of their survivability. Just a couple of examples:

 

WGPL /w SB + PA vs. bolter: 33 / 2= 16.5 PP GHW (worse than a grey hunter)

TWC vs. bolter: 50 / (3/2 * 2)= 16.7 (worse than a grey hunter).

Rune priest /w runic armour vs. bolter: 120 / (2*2) = 30 (vulnerable!)

[Wilytank]

The majority of the people I play are not Marine players so I rarely face immense power in shooting (unless he's caught unengaged in the open within range of Ork Lootas or facing Guard who I've only really played once).

[MeatGrinder]

Basically, a lone wolf in TDA with chainfist and Storm sheild is one of those units that your opponent really wants to ignore but really can't. With a 3+ invul, a 2+ armour, and a 5+ FNP, eternal warrior and two wounds, hes going to take a LOT of punishment. Plus, if your opponent ignores him, he concedes him a victory point. So, hes not going to divert a lot of fire at him. But, that is still a chainfist that is slowly advancing up the board, ready to mince tanks or tie up units.

 

Dont underestimate lone wolves, seriously. I cant count how many times they've won me games.

[Ghostwolfalpha]

With SW I find that it is all about making your opponent make tough decisions. What to shoot? What to charge? Everyone hates Grey Hunters from reputation alone, so they tend to take the brunt of enemy fire. If they ignore LW then he is going to make them regret it, if they kill him, your GH get to keep a few extra models. Either way, for the points Lone Wolves are great at spooking your opponent and controlling their actions.

 

However, of you play Orks or IG, they tend to get mowed down by massed lasgun, shoota fire. So like their fluff says, send them at the big stuff.

 

There is no greater way for a wolf to die then fighting for his pack.

[beerbeard]

I usually take one, but only in the PTA games do I send him charging across the field right away. He gives up First Blood, which is a problem. I don't think he should, but I highly doubt that will ever be FAQ'd. Instead, I use him as the ultimate countercharge unit, and to discourage deepstrikers.