Brother Immolator Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 My problem with BKs as AA is that you have the same odds of getting hot as you do hitting a flyer, and I'm not sure it's worth losing a 42 point model for the chance to take out a flyer. I might use them in a pinch for AA, but not primary. Well, by that account you would never use them in range then. Plasma weaponlry indeed has an inherent danger but thats the tradeoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstartes Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 I think you've got your math wrong (why to I keep saying that in this thread?). Chance of hitting a flyer with one twin-linked plasma shot: ~30%. Chance of suffering a "Gets Hot" wound from one twin-linked plasma shot: ~ 3%. Twin-linked helps a lot with avoiding "Gets Hot." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master Avoghai Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 I think you've got your math wrong (why to I keep saying that in this thread?). Chance of hitting a flyer with one twin-linked plasma shot: ~30%. Chance of suffering a "Gets Hot" wound from one twin-linked plasma shot: ~ 3%. Twin-linked helps a lot with avoiding "Gets Hot." Nope because when you obtain a 3, 4 or 5, you don't re-roll. When you need a 6, you'll have to re-roll those results... And therefore get more chance to get a 1. Don't forget that when you re-roll, the 2nd result always applies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstartes Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 That's what I get for being so smug. However, I think you're still more likely to hit the flyer than to get hot. To get hot you have to roll 1-5, then roll a 1. That's about 14%, right? The 30% to hit calc is still good, so you're about half as likely to get hot as to hit the flyer. With an armor save on top of that, you've got a... 4-ish% chance of dying (per shot). Each must decide for themselves how they like those odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndigoJack Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 What I said was more of a generality than a fact. You do have a better chance of hitting a flyer than gets hot. I still wouldn't use plasma as primary AA. S7 just doesn't cut it against av12. I'm not saying its a bad choice, but there are other things I'd fire at a flyer first and other things I'd fire plasma talons at before I used them against a flyer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
march10k Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 What I said was more of a generality than a fact. You do have a better chance of hitting a flyer than gets hot. I still wouldn't use plasma as primary AA. S7 just doesn't cut it against av12. I'm not saying its a bad choice, but there are other things I'd fire at a flyer first and other things I'd fire plasma talons at before I used them against a flyer. More importantly, the chance of a single plasma shot killing the shooter is probably greater than the chance of that shot killing the targeted flier! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
facmanpob Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 I think the point is that if you are going to use plasma weaponry, then you have to put the Gets Hot! rule out of your mind and just accept it as the 'cost of doing business'. Anyway, what's the points cost of an average flyer? 3 or 4 Black Knights? Unfair to compare the chance of losing 1 BK (which still gets its 3+ armour save) directly against the chance of destroying a flyer 4 times more costly..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
facmanpob Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 For the avoidance of further argument regarding percentages, I did the full mathhammer. I assumed a unit of 6 Black Knights, containing 5 Plasma Talons and a RW Grenade Launcher. In addition, most of the argument about Black Knights as an ad-hoc AA unit is predicated on them being manoeuvrable enough to get into position for a rear armour shot against a Valkyrie, so that is what I will assume initially. %hit vs flyer per shot = 30.9% Number of shots = 10 No. of hits = 3.09 No. of Pens = 1.55 No. of Glances = 0.515 No. of HP per turn = 2.06 %age Gets Hot! per shot vs flyer = 13.9% No. of shots = 10 No. of Gets Hot! wounds = 1.39 No. of unsaved wounds = 0.46 So, to sum up, on average, if the game was played by mathhammer, every 2 turns of shooting my BK squad would do 4 HP worth of damage to AV10 flyers (e.g. Valkyrie/Vendetta rear armour, Ork flyers etc) and cause 3 rolls on the Vehicle damage table, and lose one member of the squad to the 'Gets Hot!' rule. Against AV11, e.g. Storm Talon, the number of pens and glances changes to Pens = 1.03 Glances = 0.515 Total HP per turn = 1.5 Against AV12, e.g. Storm Raven or Valkyrie front armour, it changes to Pens = 0.515 Glances = 0.515 Total HP per turn = 1.03 Make of the numbers what you will :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaplain Lucifer Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 don't forget the grenade launcher can deal 2 S6 shot from the krak grenade mode. little it may be it will still help specially vs AV11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
facmanpob Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 don't forget the grenade launcher can deal 2 S6 shot from the krak grenade mode. little it may be it will still help specially vs AV11. good shout! Factoring that in gives us the following vs AV10 No. of HP per turn = 2.22 vs AV11 No. of HP per turn = 1.61 vs AV12 No. of HP per turn = 1.09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brother Immolator Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 don't forget the grenade launcher can deal 2 S6 shot from the krak grenade mode. little it may be it will still help specially vs AV11. Oh damn! And I always forgot that!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brom MKIV Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Man I love it when Lucifer gives good advice.. 'here little valkyrie, taste some krak' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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