Lone Wolf as Overwatch Draw?

[montegue]

Greetings, 

 

Had a thought yesterday. Why not put a Lone Wolf alongside your units of Gray Hunters as an Overwatch draw on the charge? If you're walking across the field to begin with, he can walk alongside them. If they gun him down, no biggie. 

 

 

[dswanick]

True, and a unit of Fen.Wolves can perform the same duty.

[skeletoro]

What load out did you have in mind?

 

Exposing a TDA + SS + CF LW to bolter fire could easily lose you more points worth of models than sending the Grey hunters in first. The 54 shots it would take to kill the lone wolf (on average) would kill about 6 grey hunters. There's not a lot in it. The main difference is that the outcome is practically all or nothing with the LW. If you're taking 20 over watch shots, there's a decent chance he'll be unscathed. But there's also a not-so-low probability he'll die. It's much less likely you'd lose 6 grey hunters to 20 shots, but it's also much less likely you'll lose zero.

 

Fenrisian wolves drop like flies to small arms fire. It takes 9 bolter shots to kill a marine, give or take. Those 9 shots would kill about 3 fenrisian wolves! Exception: cover saves. With a 5+, you'd lose only 2 - bringing you to parity with marines. Another exception: AP3 weapons... Fenrisian wolves die quickly to plasma, but marines die just as fast and cost twice as much!

 

The other thing about Fenrisian wolves is that you don't need to purchase a rhino for them, so they're cheaper than they look.

 

Lastly, I've been using points values here, which are relevant to deciding to purchase a unit on the basis of their survivability. Obviously, more goes into it than that. Once you've started a game and at at the start of turn 3, deciding whether to charge in first with the grey hunters or the other unit, what you've paid is irrelevant. At that point you need to weigh up the unit's survivabiloty against their future utility. How much damage can they do? Do they have the high AP or strength needed to perform well in the context? Are they needed to capture an objective? How many victory points will they cost you if they die? Points costs are at best an approximation of value on turn 3, and paying them too much heed would be to fall prey to the Sunk Cost Fallacy.

 

With this in mind, there will be contexts where it would be madness to send the Fenrisian wolves in first. Against MEQ, each Fenrisian wolf dishes out as much death as a grey hunter. 3 Fenrisian wolves are 1.6 the points cost of a grey hunter, but they're also three times the wounds caused, potentially at initiative 5. Also, if you've popped your wolf standard, you'll lose 4.5 fenrisian wolves for each grey hunter, and a TDAWGPL (with wolf standard) is as survivable va bolters as 36 Fenrisian wolves! But what if you're up against terminators and have a power axe or two, or a mark of the wulfen? What if positioning has left your special weapon models (instead of your TDAWG) exposed at the front of the pack? What if you have a rune priest able to grant your Fenrisian wolves a 4+ invulnerable save?

 

There are contexts where it would be crazy to send the lone wolf in first. That chain fist might be sorely, sorely needed in some engagements. With WS activated, your TDAWGPL is twice as durable vs bolter fire (2+ reroll vs 5+ FNP and 2 wounds) as the LW. On the other hand, grey hunters are more lethal, point for point, against gretchin. And getting the lone wolf killed is worth victory points!

 

TLDR: Hmm, not sure ;)