Shard of Magnus Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Yes, 4TH attacks would be 40/36, meaning, statistically/on average the TH/SS would kill the LC sergeant nearly every single time.The math may be iffy, but is not woefully wrong. You must be leaving something out. I also did specifically mention that I included the lightening claw reroll in my working, so maybe go back and double check? Not quite right. You're wanting to calculate the probability of at least one attack being successful. In the case of 2 TH attacks that's the chance that both attacks kill, only the first, or only the second. There's a different way to calculate it, but what I remember being easiest is taking (1 - the chance that none of the attacks kill). If one attack has a 10/36 chance then there is a 26/36 chance of it not; odds of killing = 1- (26/36 * 26/36) = 47.8%. Three LC attacks at 3/48 to kill = 1 - (45/48*45/48*45/48) = 17.6%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xenith Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Quite right, it is pretty late, you'll have to forgive me for that one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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