[MATH] Ezekiel's Mind Worm

[SvenONE]

Wall of Text Warning: Just bear with me, I promise this might be interesting! 

 

I started writing this about a week ago as a fun little experiment after a game in which I had used Ezekiel.  I was utterly crushed but my goal was to drop pod Ezekiel and his most trusted veterans (9, 4 combi-melta/3power swords) after his HQ (Necron Overlord) who was in a warrior blob of about 20.  Ezekiel attempted a Mind Worm the OL but instead hit a lowly warrior who of course got up the next turn.  The volley of fire next turn came my way and I survived with about 4 and attempted again but periled myself... I attempted a charge, lost 2 more vets and the Overlord challenged and I was unable to refuse, it obviously didn't go well as Warscythes are no joke!  Throwing my arms up in the air I cried: “If only Mind Worm had landed on the overlord! Emperor why have you forsaken such a loyal subject!” The game was a friendly, and I ended up losing, but that was ok, because it led me to this. 

 

Now I field Ezekiel a lot, I like his model, I think he’s a great bargain for what he does but most of the time he’s holding the gun line supporting tacticals and devastators (yes I know, something a regular libby does just as easily and cheaper).  He rarely gets a chance to use Mind Worm, and then it dawned on me:  I don’t know if I’ve ever actually gotten a successful Mind Worm off on a multi wound target, sure I’ve inflicted wounds and killed models with it, but never that “snipe” that everyone says it is.  So I set out to find out what it takes to do that.

 

I’m going to preface this by saying I’m not that great at complex probability, using math is pretty limited in my job and the rest of my life for that matter (except tax season).  That said, I would really encourage anyone who is a Math Mastery Level 3 to check my work.  So let’s begin:

 

The Mind Worm is a Focused Witchfire with a random number of shots.  It really boils down to a S4 AP2 pistol that has ignore cover, that’s pretty good.  He comes with a MC-bolt pistol, but from the looks of it, GW wanted you to use MW as a weapon of choice if you’re going to make one at all.  Now I never liked AP2 12” shots only because if you’re that close it means you’re most likely going to charge and AP2 all but guarantees you’ll be increasing your charge distance, it's why I never take plasma pistols but nevermind that let’s get to the math shall we?:

 

 

I’m going to do this two ways, a base standard that is Ezekiel Vs a lone IC (T4) by himself, and then vs that same IC within a squad of 5.

 

Scenario 1: Lone IC

Let’s first establish all the things that need to happen:

1. Psychic Test (not counting a 2,11,12) = .89
   
2. Deny The Witch Fails = .83
   
3. Assault D3 Roll = .33
   
4. Roll to Hit = .83^x
   
5. Roll to Wound = .5^X
   
6. Any Invuln Save (assuming a 4++) = .5^x
   

All I’m doing with this is multiplying all the nodes down each path.  You see there are a LOT of outcomes.  You can see the Decision Tree Here.  I’ve tried to keep it as organized as possible, but there may be some typos.

 

The probability of you scoring ANY (this means you can score 1 or you can score 3) unsaved wound is .24, which isn’t too bad —that’s higher than going the precision shot route where your master crafted bolt pistol is .14.  It's worth noting that a plasma pistol is .34, but that’s not causing Sap Will.  If your opponent doesn’t have an invuln save, the probability of getting a wound is .43, much better.  But the truth is, if you’re in a position that you’re casting Mind Worm on a T4 IC with no Invuln save, you’re probably not going to reap the benefits from Sap Will anyway, that IC has more problems than Mind Worm...

 

 

Scenario 2: IC In a Squad

So let’s complicate this, let’s look at how this works when you have an IC attached inside a squad of friends.  

 

Again, our desirable outcome is landing a MW on our desired target.  So here’s what needs to happen:

1. Psychic Test Passes with a 3-5 (not counting 2 again) = .25
   
2. Deny The Witch fails = .17
   
3. Assault D3 Roll = .33
   
4. Roll to Hit = .83^x
   
5. Roll to Wound = .5^y
   
6. Look Out Sir = .83^z
   
7. 4++ Fail = .5^n
   

 

Note that according to the Focused Witchfire rules, you must choose a different target should you fail your psychic test meaning you lost your chance to get that target.  I imagine that in the heat of the battle, your pysker's concentration slipped and the Focused Witchfire has sought another target.

 

Based on our last example the answer may not shock you: .018 or 1.8%, again this number is higher should your opponent not have an invuln save.  Without one that number jumps to .034 or 3.4%, while that is a better probability when you’re this low does it really matter? We’re talking 3 in 100 chances.  The chances of you causing a wound to YOURSELF via perils is 6%.

 

In fact (hold onto your hat).  The probability of you scoring 3 unsaved wounds vs a 4++ IC in a squad is: .000002, that’s 1 in 500,000 opportunities.  

 

The relevant chart for this is here.

 

Things Will Change Your Probability

Keep in mind these numbers can really only get worse depending on the following:

 

Psychic Mastery Level (or say a psychic hood nearby), Admamantium Will and also of course things like Shadow of the Warp

Toughness value

Invuln save value

 

You can forget about it casting on that Wraithknight that’s going to be charging you next turn (you can’t even wound it at S4) and that Flying Hive Tyrant (even if it has been grounded) is going to require a lot of luck as well.  In fact the only thing that actually improves your probability of causing an unsaved wound is targeting T3 models, or targeting specialist weapon bearing models, or characters (LOS 4+) who in most cases also don’t have invuln saves.  So if you know you’re going to face Dark Eldar, think about bringing Ezekiel!

 

Man, why should I ever even use it?

Well it’s not all doom and gloom.  While you may have a 2% chance of scoring a wound on your desired target, you WILL inflict a wound.  In fact you have a 72% chance of inflicting a wound when using Mind Worm.  I did this by subtracting the failed psychic tests, hits, and wounds; that leaves any successful wounds causes to the IC directly or LOS that they passed onto their squad mates.  In most cases the models that surround an IC are usually 1W models without invulns, it is probably safe to say that you’ll kill whatever you hit that ISNT the IC.  Truthfully though, I think I'd rather just take Psychic Scream, or Flame Breath if I was in that range and wanted to shoot something.

 

More to that, if you’ve managed to land 2 or more wounds on an IC, you’re more likely to inflict more casualties if you hadn’t made your psychic test.  With the way wound allocation works wounds go in together but they are allocated by the controlling player.  So that means if you manage to pass all your psychic tests on an Ork mob and land 2 wounds on the nob, if for some reason he passes both his LOS saves, 1 wound would go to one boy, and another to a second.  I’ve not seen anything that says focused witchfire wounds must be allocated at once, throwing away any leftover wounds.

 

So Really Where's the Issue?

I have no problem with Mind Worm as an ability, it makes perfect sense fluff wise, the strength profile to me, reflects the idea that a tougher model will have a greater resolve, thus fighting Ezekiel’s power, after all, BS5 and S4 are pretty standard.  It’s clear to me that GW wrote the ability with the intent that Ezekiel was going to be the type of librarian that found himself towards the front lines, he’s no Mephiston obviously, but more of a Chaos Sorcerer type adding utility while also being able to provide some offense.  No, I don’t have a problem with Mind Worm at all, at least in theory.

 

What I do have issue with is how Focused Witchfires work in general — which is a shortcoming of the psychic powers overall, and most notably Look Out Sir.  As it stands we only have a .36 probability of just getting the opportunity to roll hits against our target.  Then, after rolling through all those hoops just to get the hits and wounds, every wound has an 83% chance of being passed off to some poor unsuspecting squad mate.  It’s important also to note that vs characters like those power fist wielding sergeants are passing their LOS 50% of the time, so your numbers slightly go up, again we’re still talking less than 5% here.

 

I’ve seen a lot of discussion about how Mind Worm is good for taking out that specific special weapon or character, I think this sort of assessment is dubious at best, especially for a character or IC.  A special weapons is another story and really just comes down to passing your tests, still a 36% probability.

 

The real drag about Look Out Sir is that it’s a blanket rule that basically provides your character or IC with a 4++/2++ respectively.  It’s entirely plausible when we’re talking about a precision shot from a sniper rifle or an enemy IC’s weapon.  The book describes it as a situation in which a squad mate has sacrificed himself for his leader or he’s ducked back further into the squad.  But this is MIND WORM, you know — the thing that targets your MIND.  

 

Mind Worm’s entry is described as such:

“Ezekiel Burrows his consciousness into a victim’s brain, forcing him to reveal his innermost secrets as he convulses to death.”

 

You mean to tell me Ezekiel, one of the best Psykers in the Imperium, charges into battle sees and targets his enemy, and somehow taps into the wrong mind? *eyeroll*  I understand that the warp is a chaotic and unwieldy thing, but Mind Worm is already jumping through enough hoops to be successful, Look Out Sir downright nullifies this ability. 

 

The real rub is that you HAVE to take Mind Worm.  We didn’t get Biomancy (hands down the best offensive tree) because they decided to make us special with Divination, well we were until they gave that to Tigirius, and if you’re going to take a librarian as C:SM, you’re GOING to take Tigirius.  I just wonder what GW is budgeting Mind Worm as when factoring it into Ezekiel’s cost.  Truthfully I’m guessing it’s not much given his stat line, psychic mastery level and artificer armor.  It’s just such a shame we have to take Mind Worm as it limits our psychic options, sort of like dangling a carrot that we can never reach.  It would be great to have that one extra slot to roll on.  With Ezekiel I always roll on Divination first for a chance at Forewarning (usually taking prescience), and Pyromancy for Molten Form and taking flame breath.  If he’s going to be that close, he may as well dump a template on a squad rather than attempt MW.  It would just be great if I had a 3rd attempt to roll on a tree.

 

So all in all, my conclusion is that you shouldn’t get too excited or rely on Mind Worm for doing anything other than acting as a S4/AP2 pistol.  You should look at it as a watered down smite with a lot more randomness.  If you DO manage to get a Sap Will debuff, even if you lose the game you should declare that as a major victory.  Come to think of it, in all my fielding of Ezekiel, I don’t know if I’ve ever landed a successful MW on an IC/Character, I would also call out anyone who says they’ve scored more than 2 unsaved wounds on an IC within a squad as a liar [heretic].

 

Closing Note

Author’s note:  Again I’d really encourage anyone who’s a little more savvy than I with probability/decision trees to double check my math, I don’t think my numbers are 100% correct, but I don’t think they are really far off, at least to such a point that Mind Worm actually is a worthwhile ability (for Sap Will).  My method to calculate it was most tripped up by the fact that the Assault D3 roll exists.  While all of these dice rolls are independent, you can’t proceed to the next node unless you satisfy the previous step.  So my method is that of any probability tree is just multiplying down the nodes until each one is complete.

 

[Master Avoghai]

Well...

 

I've never really believed in focused witchfires... I mean, you need to make less than 5 on 2d6.. And them you have a Look out sir?

 

Even without the maths you see it will be pretty difficult...

 

And when you add the fact that

 

He has no inv save

The sword is just mater crafted but has the specialist weapon rule hence meaning less A... (And everybody knows that getting 1more A is statistically better than getting a reroll)

Mind worm is unuseful

 

So I often see topic about Ezekiel saying he's good but...I always fail to see why...

[Urael]

I have NEVER managed even a single wound with Mind Worm on an IC.... That being said, I *have* managed to instagib a Trygon Prime with the Sword. 

As Asmodai once said, " Ones are always better when the enemy rolls them." ;)

[[TA]Typher]

Great run down.

 

I agree pretty much everything. This is the only thing I'd add to.

 

 

"I have no problem with Mind Worm as an ability, it makes perfect sense fluff wise, the strength profile to me, reflects the idea that a tougher model will have a greater resolve, thus fighting Ezekiel’s power, after all, BS5 and S4 are pretty standard."

 

 

Psychic abilities should be more lethal. Look at a force sword for example. There is a 16% chance (Deny the Witch) for everyone to defend themselves vs it. The toughness of the model means nothing against it. I'm not counting the weapon that caused the wound that allows the Force weapon as it itself doesn't cause this. It's an extra ability that occurs AFTERWARD. Other abilities mirror this, psychic Scream for example. If the standard for this type of attack is a LD test then mindworm should reflect that. Look at the previous version of this power. It required a LD test.

 

Windworm either needs a higher strength IMO to reflect this or a different working of the power. IE: Be LD Based. Even if it was S5 it wouldn't be overpowered as the chance for it you actually hit a IC is very slim. It just seems poorly made power. It would actually make more sense if the Focus Witchfire ability was worded better and improved. If you added your physic level to the number you needed to roll under to be able to pick a target this would really help. For example: You need to roll 5 or under on a Focused Witchfire to pick your specific model you want to target currently. Eziekel would add his 3 psychic levels and make that an 8. This would reflect their level of mastery over the warp and make powers like mindworm a little better.

 

Anyway That's just my opinion. There needs to be either consistency how powers work and/or a benefit from being higher level (getting more powers doesn't count if you are hamstrung with a mandatory power that isn't great).

 

 

[march10k]

I'd go with psychic shriek...rolled a 15 the other day for five wounds...of course, the mother was so tough that only two of the five stuck, but psychic shriek comes with the possibility of getting puppet master instead...THAT is an interesting power! I've seen it used to make a hellfire dread pump holes in the side of a vindicator (the victim was at least smart enough not to point the demolisher cannon where it couldn't be used against him), and whenever I face it, it wreaks havoc because I have to be careful not to step in front of my own crusaders!

[[TA]Typher]

I'd go with psychic shriek...rolled a 15 the other day for five wounds...of course, the mother was so tough that only two of the five stuck, but psychic shriek comes with the possibility of getting puppet master instead...THAT is an interesting power! I've seen it used to make a hellfire dread pump holes in the side of a vindicator (the victim was at least smart enough not to point the demolisher cannon where it couldn't be used against him), and whenever I face it, it wreaks havoc because I have to be careful not to step in front of my own crusaders!

 

The Rule FAQ.

 

Q: Does the Puppet Master power allow the controlling psyker

to ‘pivot’ an enemy Walker in order to select a target not

currently in its fire arc? (p423)

A: Yes, but the model is assumed to return to its original

facing when it reverts back to the owning player’s control.

 

 

 

Which proves your point even more. Imagine if you could swap out Windworm, how much better would Ez be with three chances are getting the power you want? Not that he is bad in the right circumstances. In a unit of Knights he's great. WS6 makes them brutal even to other Elite units. He's still not a bad choice, it's just that a basic Lib can do nearly the same for cheaper.

[shabbadoo]

So I often see topic about Ezekiel saying he's good but...I always fail to see why...

A level 2 Librarian is 100 points base. If he could get artificer armor, he'd be 120.  That leaves a 25 point discrepancy between him and Ezekiel, which is surely made up for by Ezekiel's +1 BS, +1 Wound, Mastery Level 3 for better Deny the Witch rolls, Mastery Level 3 for the generation of 3 Warp charge points which can be used for a power with a warp charge of 2 and another of 1 (that latter of which need not be Mind Worm.), and the Book of Salvation (+1 WS to all *units* within 6").  Oh, and the master-crafted bolt pistol, not that it is worth much, but it is there.  Ezekiel is not stellar by any means, but his points are acceptably matched to his effectiveness.  He can be a great force multiplier because of the Book of Salvation, as every *unit* within 6" of him hitting on 3's in close combat instead of 4's can be a big deal; add in Prescience and it gets nastier.  I am not much of fan of Mind Worm though.  Ezekiel's other two psychic powers, whatever they end up being, will accomplish more nearly always.

[Tanhausen]

Impressive work and a not-so-easy read for us "first rank fire, second rank fire, fix bayonets, FO DI EMPERAAAAA" (translation: no much of a math guy, just basic probablilities).

 

That said, shabadoo raises quite a few good points as to the point difference...which certainly add up.

 

IMHO, its more of how witchfire is designed than the actual fact that Mind Worm is lacklusting...

 

Now again, that's what happens when you rely on them filthy psykers...when you could be carrying a big fat TH :P

[SvenONE]

Yeah that was really one of the things I found about all of this, there isn't a whole lot to complain about an ability that hits with BS5, wounds MEQs and TEQs alike on 4s with an AP and ignores cover, that's pretty good.  It's just a victim of Focused Witchfire being a little hard to land (but I still would say reasonable) and the more egregious LOS rule.

 

With an ability that is quite honestly this bad on paper it tells me that there is one of a few things happening: GW's codex writers don't play test all the new rules they write in actual game situations (again, the chances are so low I'd bet that no one at GW has ever landed a sap will either...), they don't write the codex rules with regards to the main BRB, or they willingly accept the fact they've written a poor rule and don't care.  It could even be this was written prior to the 6th edition LOS rule (I've had a long standing conspiracy theory that our book wasn't written with 6th ed in mind), I didn't play 5th extensively, only some beginner games so I don't know how it worked then.

 

I'm inclined to believe that it's a combination of all of that.

 

I would love to ask one of these guys if they knew how bad this ability was and what their thoughts on it are, because I think it's safe to say they don't have any idea how not good it is.

 

I still think that Ezekiel is getting something for cheap and a decent HQ choice, even if he can't get a PFG.  After all, who needs an invuln save when you can LOS!!

[Syphid]

Inner Circle should slightly increase the odds against C:SM, right?

[SvenONE]

Inner Circle should slightly increase the odds against C:SM, right?

 

You're right I had forgotten that, it makes your chances of hitting pretty high (basically .83 becomes .97 per die, if you include the reroll of 1), and obviously your chance of wounding on a T4 (.5 now becomes .59).  But hitting and wounding rolls aren't really the problem, I'd say those fall within acceptable ranges of probability compared to similar to hit/wound rolls in the game.

 

 It's important to remember though that Chaos armies aren't exactly without psykers, so while you do get that bonus, your target might also be a psyker as well.

[shabbadoo]

Good point about the whole Preferred Enemy (CSM) bit of Inner Circle.  I haven't use the new Mind Worm on CSMs...yet, but I would be more inclined to try it out.  I have not used Ezekiel very often, but I usually use Mind Worm to pick off a special/heavy weapon/dangerous close combat weapon troopers from units, as they get no Look Out Sir! roll then (they not being characters).   Then again, if you use Mind Worm against a 1 Wound unit leader character and do multiple wounds (and the player really doesn't want that unit leader to die), you still might end up killing the unit leader and any others who sucked up Look Out Sir! wounds.

 

One other thing that  is that Precision Shots and Focused Witchfire attacks are still shooting attacks, except that they wound models of your choice. Such wounds are still subject to Look Out Sir!.  Also if there are multiple wounds done to a 1 Wound character in this way (and they fail Look Out Sir! rolls), any left over wounds after the character dies do not get wasted, but carry over into the rest of the unit as usual (i.e. the nominated model just takes the place of "closest model" with regard to such wounds).  I know that our gaming group did that wrong a few times in past games with regards to Precision Shots and Focused Witchfire shots.

[Isiah]

Nice topic. Perhaps Ezekiel could go on Chaplain Lucifer's list of units for his Underdogs topic ;).

 

Edit: belay that. Let's keep that for Asmodai :huh:

 

Cheers

I

[Chaplain Lucifer]

Nice topic. Perhaps Ezekiel could go on Chaplain Lucifer's list of units for his Underdogs topic .

Edit: belay that. Let's keep that for Asmodai

Cheers

I

There's plenty of room for both. ;)

[[TA]Typher]

Nice topic. Perhaps Ezekiel could go on Chaplain Lucifer's list of units for his Underdogs topic .

Edit: belay that. Let's keep that for Asmodai

Cheers

I

I don't think he's an underdog. He's good. I'd use him, but I never seem to have the points.

[SvenONE]

Hah yeah I think Mind Worm could deserve a challenge just on it's own.  I'm a fan of Ezekiel for his cost he's one of our better alternatives.

[Darkangeldentist]

Very nice discussion and topic.

 

To add my own view and experiences with Ezekiel;

 

I have managed to get Mind worm to impact meaningfully in a couple of games and even got the sap will effect to render a Necron Phaeron clumsily swinging at air for most of the remainder of that game. It's only happened the once but it did happen and it felt good to see it.

 

Now the math seemed fairly solid for the most part although I'm deeply uncertain about the overall impact the D3 number of shots has regarding your findings but I have a couple of caveats that potentially affect the figures. The first is when Ezekiel also rolls precognition as one of his two other powers. Under the effects of this power he is more likely to hit and wound with Mind worm due to the re-rolls. Doesn't help with the casting aspect but definitely improves the odds.

 

The other one I am not sure about but basically there is the question of whether you can make precision shots with a witchfire power or focused witchfire power. From my past reading of these rules I can't think of a reason why not but it seems a little off in some respects. Rules as written famously does not equate to rules as intended though.

 

One more factor in the Mind worm story that impacts it's odds for causing a wound and that is the rad grenade from a ravenwing grenade launcher. Since it lowers the target's toughness it is pretty much the same as giving Mind worm +1 strength, marking up the odds of getting a successful wound significantly.

 

 

I have said in previous threads that I find Ezekiel to be a solid, characterful and entertaining option to slot into lists. He brings plenty to the table for his points and even if you never use mind worm his overall impact on the table is likely to completely justify his cost. You might be able to bring a regular librarian for fewer points but not one that does as much or survives quite as well as Ezekiel. In spite of his lack of an invulnerable there are ways to grant him one plus his improved armour save and extra wound significantly add to his surviviability on the table.

 

Mind worm is a power with devastating potential, if it were much more reliable it would ridiculous! As it stands it is an interesting weapon of opportunity that should always be remembered as an option but the basis of a game plan. If the dice are cold and unkind it will leave you disapointed and Ezekiel most likely dead. However on those magical momemts when opponents fail to appreciate the potential dangers he presents you can pull off some very some glorious spectacles.

[SvenONE]

Deeply uncertain! I don't understand though, you feel the math for 3 hits is off? or too low?

Note that while all of the individual outcomes look lower, the 3 hit tree has more outcomes overall, so the probability of getting a wound off of the 3 hit route is .008, the probability for 2 is .006. Again, what's making these numbers so low is really the LOS.

You are absolutely right that precognition would take those numbers higher. Each die on a T4 goes from a 50% to a 75%

p(Wounding with S4 on a T4, rerolling) = p(wounding a T4) + p(wounding a T4 | failed wound)

= .5 + (.5 x .5)

Getting precognition is roughly about a 30%. So It would be advisable for you to roll for it no matter what when using Ezekiel.

As for the Precision Shot, there was a discussion in the official rules forum (maybe it was you who was commenting, but maybe not) regarding this as well. The focused witchfire IS a precision shot. To me this rule is treated as though the model you are firing against is the only model in the group. Don't forget, precision shots are a bit of a misnomer, you allocate the wound after the to-wound roll has been made, not the to-hit. Focused witchfire says that the power is resolved against the model you chose, so it's already, by default allocating wounds to the model you chose regardless.

I'm assuming that what you are getting at is a situation where you fail your (2-5) psychic test, roll to hit on another model, get a precision shot, roll to wound and allocate that wound BACK on the IC. It's true there's no hard and fast rules as written with this, but that's because the focused witchfire was created so that you specifically can avoid precision shots and have the better chance as it is. I see what you're saying, but I see that as a pretty cheeky application of the precision shot rule, again nothing stopping you -- other than maybe an argument with your opponent that'll slow your game down for a few minutes.

While it's worth noting it can give you another opportunity to get a wound on an IC, you're talking about a 1/6 chance of a precision shot, followed by a 1/6 chance of your opponent failing a LOS, that's going to go in your favor about 3% of the time per die, so the only thing you'd probably accomplish is annoying your opponent haha.

In the end, we're talking about another set of hoops to jump through, to get our already bad ability to work fractionally higher.

As for the RWGL, I was sort of hinted at that when I was talking about the T3 and Dark Eldar comment, but I didn't include it specifically because we're talking about spending another 100+ points for something that isn't guaranteed. If the solution to make an ability work is to continue to spend more points to bring it out of what is essentially a black hole of probability, then it's failed as an ability IMO.

And I disagree about it being considered an option with devastating potential. With probability this low, you shouldn't bother. I'll use an example that sort of applies:

When I go to the casino I always play craps, it's great with friends and interactive. It also has some of the best odds in the house (mind you the house still has the edge). Craps has a number of 1-roll bets. 12 (or double 6s) pays out 30 to 1, but the probabilty of getting it is 1/36 (~3%), which is roughly the same probability of mind worm. But if it doesn't come up, you lose your money. If you were to go into the casino to put $10 down on 12 for every roll, someone else at the table would most likely feel compelled to tell you to save your money or just donate it to the casino directly.

In a game system in which we have rules like the Death Mask of Sanguinius, Marker Lights, Vector Strikes, Ignores Cover, Hunters from Hyperspace, Entropic Strikes, JOTWW, re-rollable invuln saves, it's just hard to see an ability like this which hands down has to be the WORST ability in the game when it comes to probability (again, I'm talking specifically about Sap Will, MW as a shooting attack isn't that bad). So where you're exactly right that it's devastating potential, that potential is so abysmally low that it's really of no concern to an opponent. Not to mention that it means you are going to have to put your not-very-thratening HQ within 12" of an IC who likely isn't rolling alone.

[Polythemus]

DAdentist - it seems we can always count on you to give solid input on tactical questions. i do think that you make a good point on prescion shooting rules vs. witchfire and focused witchfire rules. it would seem that prescision shooting only applies to shooting attacks, and as a result cant be applied to psychic attacks. I do feel that the sugguested boost to focused witch fire powers (like subtracting the number of mastery level points from your result rolled could be a good means to increase its effectiveness and be fluffy. 

i am not sure i buy the argument about increased efficacy being dangerous since there are so many factors that limit psychic shooting to begin with, and the fact that things like mind shackle scarabs already exist in the game just scream out for a potent means of balancing.

[march10k]

Ezekiel is immeasurably better than a generic psycher, for reasons that have been mentioned.  There are really only two reasons not to field him, and mind worm isn't one of them.  The first is the inability to give him a bike or TDA, the former for mobility AND survivability, and the latter for survivability (5++) and DWA.  The second reason is the PFG.  I haven't seen a DA librarian without a PFG in, well, years.  

 

/edit/  Someone mentioned him giving knights WS6?  That's almost never better than the WS5 that they already have.  The real money is in WS5 thundernators!  Stashing him inside a crusader, unlikely to dismount voluntarily, in order to project a 1+WS bubble around its hull...tasty!  He could even (unlike any libby not on board) give prescience to the thundernators before they dismount and charge, for a 8/9 hit rate on the charge!

[Darkangeldentist]

My apologies Svenone, after reading your post I misunderstood how you got from the .33 for the number of shots to the final results based simply from what you had written. I thought the final results appeared accurate but stumbled over how you got to them. Having now taken a proper look at the decision tree you linked I understand better how you did all your workings for the probabilities.

 

One of the things about Mind worm and similar abilities with very long odds is the relevance of how much your opponent knows about it and what or if they will take measures to mitigate that threat. Perhaps I have played the same people too many times or have explained the possibilities too thoroughly but part of the potential from Mind worm is how it sometime influences how my opponent plays. When an opponent asks what something does I will tell them, in some detail... Although I'm not a great judge of this I hope I don't over-egg the odds about the likelihood of success but just telling someone that if an attack wounds their valuable model it will suffer permanent and significant modifiers to their combat stats, it does stick in their mind. You don't need to exaggerate and the opponent doesn't need to be irrationally over-protected of their most powerful models but I have played some very savvy gamers who will adjust their plans to avoid taking the risk.

 

To look at it another way, if aware of a potential risk you are likely to avoid or reduce the threat from it if you can. Essentially take the point of view of your opponent, they have two main paths when faced with Ezekiel and Mind worm, either they ignore the threat and assume that since the odds are in their favour for avoiding suffering from 'Sap will' then it's not worth changing their plans, in which case you most likely will get the opportuity to at least try to use it effectively. Or they adjust their plans to further reduce the odds of their multi-wound models from the threat of mind worm. This is invariably the more common and useful (to us) consequence of a power like Mind worm. As a mainly support model Ezekiel is not the greatest combatant (although no slouch) and if the opponent's most dangerous models are going to behave cautiously around him all the better for us.

 

One last piece to throw on the probabilities heap. Ezekiel can potentially roll up both precognition and misfortune for his powers so in theory he could mind worm a target he has also put misfortune on and place precognition on himself. Meaning that provided they do not 'deny the witch' you will get to re-roll you to-hit and to-wound rolls and the enemy will have to re-roll their invulnerable saves if they have them!

 

 

Re-reading your original post I do feel you are a little too focused on the Look out sir and independent character issue. I agree that as it stands it greatly undermines the value of such powers and is aggravating to say the least. However In spite of the low odds of pulling the following off I would like to submit the following applications for Mind worm to utilise sap will. Sap will effects any multi-wound model, not just characters and so if you can plant a wound or even two on a monster like a trygon or hive tyrant then they will be far less reliable and threatening in following turns. A trygon is reduced to the minimum I and BS and barely manages WS 2 after suffering just a single wound, which makes it unreliable as a combat beast. This was one of the reasons I originally included the ravenwing grenade launcher into my list of factors to consider since I have had games where my black knights wounded by failed to kill a monster by some margin (sometimes the enemy just makes their cover saves) and that rad grenade really helps make everything else better. Against marines their new centurions would be quite similar, if they take a wound from mind worm suddenly they become simiarly infantile. Back to nids who have more multi-wound models than any other army. Be it warriors (very hard to stick mind worm on them), raveners, shrieks or lictors they are all models that would hate to suddenly have most of their combat stats halve or worse! Since they tend towards low model count units a lot of the time (certainly after they've been shot at) using Mind worm on one of the survivors can quite impressively impact the threat posed by the survivors.

[[TA]Typher]

Keep him in a LR? Sure more units might benefit from the plus 1WS as the hull is bigger. Might is the key word however. A bunched up gunline would have the same result with better effect if he exited. Staying in the LR you are surrendering casting prescience the next turn on anything except your LR, which is almost completely TL, surrendering his attacks and his force weapon, which is a huge force multiple and surrendering his 2 other powers. All in all that seems like a bad idea in all but the most select circumstances. Plus you have to shackle your LR to stay close instead of moving into better firing positions.

 

Putting him with Thundernaders is a good idea as WS 4 is common and that advantage would help. But just being close would give the same benefit, while spreading out your threat, and drawing fire from you scoring units (at least in a DW list).

 

In a unit of knights the Knight master can protect him from challenges better as he would be WS6 and have a 3++ that a normal DW Sgt can't have. Countless times I have failed to break an enemy, only to find my Sgt dead and my IC forced to refuse a challenge, or risking everything to save the unit he's with by accepting (see every Belial complaint thread). If you use your knights as a hard hitting unit, tieing up and taking down big threats to your scoring units than the knights might not be a bad idea. WS6 will help against other elite units (WS5) and allow your knight master to survive most HQs (due to WS6 being the most common HQ stat). If you've ever fought against a unit like Biker nobs you'll understand. You can still even cast preescience on yout thundernaders if you want. If you place him in front then he can tank wounds for the knights with his 2+ T5 (due to wall of shields) and LOS any AP2 things (Barring that you didn't roll a 4++ power). Plus if anyone needs those re-rolls from prescience it'll usually be the knights with that S10 mace attack. Whiffing those hurts.

 

Of course this is mostly hypothetical as a generic Lib is usually better for the stated PFG or Point cost.

[march10k]

Yeah, I know it hurts to keep him penned up inside.  I would never automatically do so any more than I would rush him out into a thundernator on thundernator melee.  It depends on the situation, but it is certainly an option.  In my case (and I would never field him in my list, the PFG is critical!), it would be two thundernator squads, at least, if not two thundernator and two tactical terminator squads, benefiting from WS5.  That certainly outweighs anything he might do in person, and in a high-risk situation justifies hiding him!