Guest Drunk Guardian Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Melta has the potential to be wasted against serpent spam, especially if you pod in T1 before they've had a chance to shoot their shields. Their shields will turn your pens to glances, and melt only gets one shot each and their jink save will negate half of those: [10 combi-melta > 6.66 hits > 3.33 glance/pens > jink should reduce to 1.6 glance/pen > 1.6 HP removed by a 10 man wolfguard combi-melta drop squad] Combi-plasma gets twice as many shots - I know it's only at S7, but still 1/3 of those hits will strip a hull point: [10 combi-plasma > 13.33 hits > 4.44 glance/pens > jink should reduce to 2.22 glance/pen > 2.22 HP removed by a 10 man wolfguard combi-plasma drop squad] With drop pod assault most of your pods will come in turn 1. Assuming a 50/50 chance you go first, meltas are not as good against serpent spam as plasma. Even if you go second, a wise eldar general will see your pods full of melta and wait till after they drop to shoot you to death. Again, meltas are not as good as plasma against serpent spam. Just my 2 cents worth. I disagree with this assessment... here are the numbers I came up with assuming a Wave Serpent with a 3+ cover save and the meltaguns are in melta range and the plasma guns are in rapid fire range: 10x Meltaguns 90% Chance to Strip 1 HP 64% Chance to Strip 2 HP 33% Chance to Strip 3 HP 10% Chance to Cause Explodes! Result 20 Plasma Guns 79% Chance to Strip 1 HP 44% Chance to Strip 2 HP 18% Chance to Strip 3 HP 2% Chance to Cause Explodes! Result This is the formula I plugged into excel to arrive at these results: =IFERROR((FACT($L$5)*$L$6^K13*IFERROR((1-$L$6)^($L$5-K13),1))/(FACT(K13)*FACT($L$5-K13)),NA()) This was calculated on every value possible and then added up to arrive at the above numbers. Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/297768-how-do-we-deal-with-wave-serpent-spam/page/2/#findComment-3829787 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spazmonkey Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 also not considering the likely hood of losing the odd marine to gets hot with that many rolls as well... So Melta or plasma hey... Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/297768-how-do-we-deal-with-wave-serpent-spam/page/2/#findComment-3829789 Share on other sites More sharing options...
NightHowler Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Melta has the potential to be wasted against serpent spam, especially if you pod in T1 before they've had a chance to shoot their shields. Their shields will turn your pens to glances, and melt only gets one shot each and their jink save will negate half of those: [10 combi-melta > 6.66 hits > 3.33 glance/pens > jink should reduce to 1.6 glance/pen > 1.6 HP removed by a 10 man wolfguard combi-melta drop squad] Combi-plasma gets twice as many shots - I know it's only at S7, but still 1/3 of those hits will strip a hull point: [10 combi-plasma > 13.33 hits > 4.44 glance/pens > jink should reduce to 2.22 glance/pen > 2.22 HP removed by a 10 man wolfguard combi-plasma drop squad] With drop pod assault most of your pods will come in turn 1. Assuming a 50/50 chance you go first, meltas are not as good against serpent spam as plasma. Even if you go second, a wise eldar general will see your pods full of melta and wait till after they drop to shoot you to death. Again, meltas are not as good as plasma against serpent spam. Just my 2 cents worth. I disagree with this assessment... here are the numbers I came up with assuming a Wave Serpent with a 3+ cover save and the meltaguns are in melta range and the plasma guns are in rapid fire range: 10x Meltaguns 90% Chance to Strip 1 HP 64% Chance to Strip 2 HP 33% Chance to Strip 3 HP 10% Chance to Cause Explodes! Result 20 Plasma Guns 79% Chance to Strip 1 HP 44% Chance to Strip 2 HP 18% Chance to Strip 3 HP 2% Chance to Cause Explodes! Result This is the formula I plugged into excel to arrive at these results: =IFERROR((FACT($L$5)*$L$6^K13*IFERROR((1-$L$6)^($L$5-K13),1))/(FACT(K13)*FACT($L$5-K13)),NA()) This was calculated on every value possible and then added up to arrive at the above numbers. Your calculations are correct, if the Eldar general made the critical error of firing their shields off even though they saw your drop pod full of melta sitting in reserves. What I'm saying is that a smart general wouldn't do that. He'd show restraint and keep his shields until after your melta came in. Then that "explodes" result your melta got would be changed to a glance instead. Remember, the shields aren't just a weapon - they're also a shield. That shield changes all pens to glances. And THAT's why the plasma comes out ahead. Just to be clear, I am not advocating the use of suicide plasma pods. I'm just saying that they would be more effective than suicide melta pods. That's all. Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/297768-how-do-we-deal-with-wave-serpent-spam/page/2/#findComment-3829820 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frater Cornelius Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 What is the point bringing in 400 points to blow up 135(?) points and then get shot to hell next turn. You need to kill efficiently. Granted, against a Serpent it's practically impossible unless the opponent is dumb enough to expose his rear end, in which case it shouldn't be an issue to begin with. Back to the issue at hand. I think that this is one of those cases where going second might work in your favour. If he unloads his shields turn 1, he might lose a lot of shooting turn 2. But he might be smart to see what you are up to. Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/297768-how-do-we-deal-with-wave-serpent-spam/page/2/#findComment-3829852 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z00Z Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 cheap RP ML2 acting as a buffmonger to LF unit, rolling on divination to get "ignores cover" to unit. You have 2 dice rolls hoping to get a '3' for the perfect timing power. But hey, its better than nothing. Worst case scenario you get primaris power, prescience, maybe you get the 4+ invul. We dont have easy access to ignore cover, certainly not as easy as xenos. But honestly, I think when their 6th ed codexes get updates to 7, some of their one-trick-ponies will be removed. Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/297768-how-do-we-deal-with-wave-serpent-spam/page/2/#findComment-3829860 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frater Cornelius Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 When you involve 'hope' into your strategy, you will most likely fail. As for update. Some might get toned down but honestly, I think they will stay mostly the same. Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/297768-how-do-we-deal-with-wave-serpent-spam/page/2/#findComment-3829863 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z00Z Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Well you have to think 'out-the-box'. 'Hoping' that rolling (chance) game type, board edge, terrain placement is going to ensure your TWC or other CC get to wave serpents has a lot of 'hope' factor too and relies on your opponent not being very tactical. Using terrain for cover to get to them is nullified with their ignores cover. TWC whilst packing a tremendous punch and highly mobile, are not '42'. Theres a reason they feature in top lists often. Maybe a LR based list as they not great vs AV14 or WG jump units with melta. Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/297768-how-do-we-deal-with-wave-serpent-spam/page/2/#findComment-3829873 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frater Cornelius Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Nothing with a save can survive 3 serpents + 2 knights. Were talking 30+ twin-linked S6/7 shots and 4 S10 shots. That is not taking into account their bloody War Walkers that delete a tac squad per turn or Nightspinners that annoy the living hell out of me.I am thinking about AV14 but there has to be a reason why there is not a single Imperial mech list (or generally an Imperial list) in the top 20 or so at a GT.I guess those bloody Wraithknights, Gauss and Fusion Blaster do demolish them too easily to be a serious contender. Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/297768-how-do-we-deal-with-wave-serpent-spam/page/2/#findComment-3829879 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spazmonkey Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 I think half the problem with tourneys is that most of the time to cover all the tables the terrain is spread so thin that shooting armies just have a massive advantage. I watch a good video about it the other day. the meta has changed so much yet a lot of people still only use 25% terrain. at tourneys its often less as they have so many tables to cover. GW recommendation is I believe d3 terrain pieces per 2x2 section. meaning an average of 12 peices of terrain on a board. that can equal around 1/3rd of the table being covered by sight blocking terrain. or even more. The nature of tourneys for most people, the event is giving the advantage to the shooting armies in a huge way by denying the cover required and recommended in the current edition. I see tables with less than 20% cover. they have lots of guns and shots and very little to block their shots apart from you saves. so of course they and sit back and destroy our armies. Fill that table with buildings and terrain and see what happens. changes the game totally. play serpent spam in a table with 30%-40% cover and see how they do against your assault SW army. Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/297768-how-do-we-deal-with-wave-serpent-spam/page/2/#findComment-3829913 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frater Cornelius Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 It does not matter. You always get your armour save against serpents. I played on a table 40% covered in terrain, about half of it being line of sight blockers. It did not help as some needed to stay in the open and by setting up assault shields and speed bumps he got 3 shooting phases regardless of anything else. The real problem with Serpents is not their killing power. Both Necrons and Tau are capable of more S7 shots per unit and per point, the latter can even ignore cover as well. It's the toughness of the Serpent. It is immune to being alpha striked and gets a 3+ cover save while not losing all it's firepower (the scatterlaser twin-linking helps a lot). Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/297768-how-do-we-deal-with-wave-serpent-spam/page/2/#findComment-3829920 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Drunk Guardian Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Melta has the potential to be wasted against serpent spam, especially if you pod in T1 before they've had a chance to shoot their shields. Their shields will turn your pens to glances, and melt only gets one shot each and their jink save will negate half of those: [10 combi-melta > 6.66 hits > 3.33 glance/pens > jink should reduce to 1.6 glance/pen > 1.6 HP removed by a 10 man wolfguard combi-melta drop squad] Combi-plasma gets twice as many shots - I know it's only at S7, but still 1/3 of those hits will strip a hull point: [10 combi-plasma > 13.33 hits > 4.44 glance/pens > jink should reduce to 2.22 glance/pen > 2.22 HP removed by a 10 man wolfguard combi-plasma drop squad] With drop pod assault most of your pods will come in turn 1. Assuming a 50/50 chance you go first, meltas are not as good against serpent spam as plasma. Even if you go second, a wise eldar general will see your pods full of melta and wait till after they drop to shoot you to death. Again, meltas are not as good as plasma against serpent spam. Just my 2 cents worth. I disagree with this assessment... here are the numbers I came up with assuming a Wave Serpent with a 3+ cover save and the meltaguns are in melta range and the plasma guns are in rapid fire range: 10x Meltaguns 90% Chance to Strip 1 HP 64% Chance to Strip 2 HP 33% Chance to Strip 3 HP 10% Chance to Cause Explodes! Result 20 Plasma Guns 79% Chance to Strip 1 HP 44% Chance to Strip 2 HP 18% Chance to Strip 3 HP 2% Chance to Cause Explodes! Result This is the formula I plugged into excel to arrive at these results: =IFERROR((FACT($L$5)*$L$6^K13*IFERROR((1-$L$6)^($L$5-K13),1))/(FACT(K13)*FACT($L$5-K13)),NA()) This was calculated on every value possible and then added up to arrive at the above numbers. Your calculations are correct, if the Eldar general made the critical error of firing their shields off even though they saw your drop pod full of melta sitting in reserves. What I'm saying is that a smart general wouldn't do that. He'd show restraint and keep his shields until after your melta came in. Then that "explodes" result your melta got would be changed to a glance instead. Remember, the shields aren't just a weapon - they're also a shield. That shield changes all pens to glances. And THAT's why the plasma comes out ahead. Just to be clear, I am not advocating the use of suicide plasma pods. I'm just saying that they would be more effective than suicide melta pods. That's all. I calculated it based on the shield having not been fired, and the pen only having a 1/6 chance of getting through for both guns. Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/297768-how-do-we-deal-with-wave-serpent-spam/page/2/#findComment-3830059 Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanPesci Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Whichever way you cut it alpha strike wolf guard pods arent a good idea here (melta or plasma). You are dropping 400 points worth of unit to have a not great chance of killing a unit a third of the cost, and then leaving yourself open to being gunned down by the remaining serpents the next turn. Have people been using predators much with the new codex? Thinking a predator with LC flanked by two autocannon preds may be a good option here. AV13 forntage isnt that easy to deal with, and gives you a good 48" range to have at those serpents. Hopefulyl htis causes the serpents to have to close distance (not sure - what is the range on them? Not played new eldar) - and leaves them more open to attack from your assualt units - TWC and Skyclaws i see as being useful here. Even a mob of fen.wolves should be able to strip enough hullpoints off the rear. Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/297768-how-do-we-deal-with-wave-serpent-spam/page/2/#findComment-3830067 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Drunk Guardian Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 I agree with the earlier post stating you can't rely on hope. I play Tau / Eldar / White Scars frequently and it can be maddening at times the shenanigans they are able to pull, but that is why we are Space Wolves and not some Codex groupy. We will face the impossible challenge head on and with enthusiasm, while our more tactical brothers will opt out when the challenge is too great. There is no such thing as too great a challenge for a Son of Russ. That said, I think the key to facing Wave Serpent spam is ranged firepower and patience. Getting a serpent to jink means forcing it to snap shoot, which in turn means your army stays alive just a little bit longer. Surviving is the hardest part of facing Serpent spam. Bringing your forces into close range is to their advantage, not yours. I wouldn't set out with the goal of killing the Serpents, but rather setting up in such a way that you can: 1) Harass them all game. Downgrade their shooting. Either they are jinking, or risking losing their Serpent altogether. Bring enough long range firepower to force them to make that choice. 2) Be setup to prevent the Serpent from last minute rushing crucial objectives. If you can get by and possibly win just focusing on objectives on your side of the field that is advantageous. Even if you need to get to the other side, create local superiority at the enemy objective and make sure it is in LoS of your ranged guns. Don't spread too thin trying to do everything. 3) Stay alive. The old George Washington strategy... Do whatever it takes to minimize your losses. The longer you stick around the more pressure it puts on enemy forces. 4) Take advantage of mistakes and opportunities. Not many generals will be perfect all the time. Try to recognize opportunities and take advantage of them. If he gives you an opportunity to put krak grenades into a Serpent, then bring that thing down! Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/297768-how-do-we-deal-with-wave-serpent-spam/page/2/#findComment-3830074 Share on other sites More sharing options...
NightHowler Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Melta has the potential to be wasted against serpent spam, especially if you pod in T1 before they've had a chance to shoot their shields. Their shields will turn your pens to glances, and melt only gets one shot each and their jink save will negate half of those: [10 combi-melta > 6.66 hits > 3.33 glance/pens > jink should reduce to 1.6 glance/pen > 1.6 HP removed by a 10 man wolfguard combi-melta drop squad] Combi-plasma gets twice as many shots - I know it's only at S7, but still 1/3 of those hits will strip a hull point: [10 combi-plasma > 13.33 hits > 4.44 glance/pens > jink should reduce to 2.22 glance/pen > 2.22 HP removed by a 10 man wolfguard combi-plasma drop squad] With drop pod assault most of your pods will come in turn 1. Assuming a 50/50 chance you go first, meltas are not as good against serpent spam as plasma. Even if you go second, a wise eldar general will see your pods full of melta and wait till after they drop to shoot you to death. Again, meltas are not as good as plasma against serpent spam. Just my 2 cents worth. I disagree with this assessment... here are the numbers I came up with assuming a Wave Serpent with a 3+ cover save and the meltaguns are in melta range and the plasma guns are in rapid fire range: 10x Meltaguns 90% Chance to Strip 1 HP 64% Chance to Strip 2 HP 33% Chance to Strip 3 HP 10% Chance to Cause Explodes! Result 20 Plasma Guns 79% Chance to Strip 1 HP 44% Chance to Strip 2 HP 18% Chance to Strip 3 HP 2% Chance to Cause Explodes! Result This is the formula I plugged into excel to arrive at these results: =IFERROR((FACT($L$5)*$L$6^K13*IFERROR((1-$L$6)^($L$5-K13),1))/(FACT(K13)*FACT($L$5-K13)),NA()) This was calculated on every value possible and then added up to arrive at the above numbers. Your calculations are correct, if the Eldar general made the critical error of firing their shields off even though they saw your drop pod full of melta sitting in reserves. What I'm saying is that a smart general wouldn't do that. He'd show restraint and keep his shields until after your melta came in. Then that "explodes" result your melta got would be changed to a glance instead. Remember, the shields aren't just a weapon - they're also a shield. That shield changes all pens to glances. And THAT's why the plasma comes out ahead. Just to be clear, I am not advocating the use of suicide plasma pods. I'm just saying that they would be more effective than suicide melta pods. That's all. I calculated it based on the shield having not been fired, and the pen only having a 1/6 chance of getting through for both guns. I see. I was basing my numbers off a 100% glance to pen conversion, but had completely forgotten that they have a 1 in 6 chance to fail that. Thanks for explaining. @DanPesci, I agree completely that suicide pods are not a good counter to wave serpent spam. If you did kill one, or even two of them, the other 4 would just fly away and shoot you to death. Dual Wolves Unleashed Detachments, each with 1 Stormwolf, would guarantee that 2 flyers show up T2. It's not a "hard counter" but I think it would help. you should definitely be able to pop 1 Serpent per turn with the focused fire of 2 Stormwolves, plus they would draw a lot of fire away from the rest of your army. That's all I can come up with using just our codex. Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/297768-how-do-we-deal-with-wave-serpent-spam/page/2/#findComment-3830087 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frater Cornelius Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Assaulting a serpent is hard if the enemy knows that he is doing. He could unload his minimal troops inside to serve as an assault screen. Unless you can shoot those down, not much will happen. As for pods. I think GH in pods can do stuff. If you can get to their rear, they are toast. They are also rather numerous and require effort to kill. War Walkers could do it, but they die once the GH look at them funny. Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/297768-how-do-we-deal-with-wave-serpent-spam/page/2/#findComment-3830093 Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanPesci Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 The problem i see with pods is that surely any eldar player is going to start with his back to the board edge if he knows you are bringing pods in? Its not like they cant quickly advance forwards if needs be once your pods have landed in front One thing i could maybe see working is bringing in pods mid table, get your guys oit of line of sight, casuing the eldar player to move up the board in order to get LoS. Then this may allow you to drop further pods behind them, or take the risk DSing some terminators behind. But then youre essentially tkaing a list of 4-5 pods, 2-3 of which are serving just as a distraction, not an alpha strike. No idea if this would work in practice. Dropping 3 axe/shield dreadnoughts in front of them turn one, in such a way that they cant manouver round the back of you easily, without exposing their rears to turn two pods though.....that sounds like a more viable option...maybe ha! Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/297768-how-do-we-deal-with-wave-serpent-spam/page/2/#findComment-3830110 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jochteas Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 If you committed a bit more to the Dred drop you could do Brethren of the Fell Hand Dread formation, you could make them both BlizVenDreads and they would have 5++ all around and reroll mêlée, it would be 615 points of distraction/close range damage. Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/297768-how-do-we-deal-with-wave-serpent-spam/page/2/#findComment-3830222 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaplain Otho Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 I played a serpent list on Tuesday 3 serpents and a wraith knight and 12 jet bikes and farseer on jet bike at 1500 points. Considering I was taking minimal special weapons due to playing wysiwyg and not having many specials and expecting to play his jet bike heavy list I lost heavily. I think Immerstum has the right idea with assault av 10 and 3 HP is not too bad the problem is catching them, which I why I think thunderwolves with drop pod hunters to do some shooting could work well in combination. I don't think long range firepower is going to work. Grey hunters could also assault if your opponent ignores them and with krak grenade could do some damage. Can someone with the elder codex or experience answer these 2 questions from my game though. 1. is a wraithknight jump mc? i.e. can he jump over my drop pods. my opponent said he way. 2. Can dire avengers jump out the back of a wave serpent and then move underneath to shoot out of the front arc? Again he said they could cos its a skimmer. I'm pretty sure he was fibbing both times but couldn't prove it. Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/297768-how-do-we-deal-with-wave-serpent-spam/page/2/#findComment-3830350 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frater Cornelius Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Can someone with the elder codex or experience answer these 2 questions from my game though. 1. is a wraithknight jump mc? i.e. can he jump over my drop pods. my opponent said he way. 2. Can dire avengers jump out the back of a wave serpent and then move underneath to shoot out of the front arc? Again he said they could cos its a skimmer. I'm pretty sure he was fibbing both times but couldn't prove it. 1. Yes, he is. Yes, he can. 2. No, they need to walk around the Serpent. It does not matter what the object you trying to cross is. The unit type of the moving unit matters. Are Dire Avengers Jump units? No? Well tough luck, walk around the Serpent then. Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/297768-how-do-we-deal-with-wave-serpent-spam/page/2/#findComment-3830378 Share on other sites More sharing options...
viddar Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Wave serpent spam is a tough match up. Its probably the best single fraction army in the tournament scene right now.The main thing they suffer against in my experience are imperial knights. I could see blizzard shield dreads doing ok but getting them there will be difficult. The key for wolves is dominating the assault phase so an army with units like Thunderwolves should do fine. One other thing I'd suggest playing maelstrom missions against eldar opponents. If for nothing else they will have to move forward. Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/297768-how-do-we-deal-with-wave-serpent-spam/page/2/#findComment-3830471 Share on other sites More sharing options...
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