Quick Space Wolf Terminator Question

[Rasclomalum]

And to think I've been using mathhammer all along! Something to think about for sure.

Thanks Z00Z!

[Jochteas]

 

And here I thought my comment was aimed at a discussion concerning SB/SS terminators!

You're math put forth showed that SB/SS to be ineffective, I offered a suggestion that might show a more effective use of terminate (would require the math to bear out of good or bad) so your statement seems awkward.

[Rasclomalum]

Nevermind bro, I think I just misunderstood what you meant there.

[Jochteas]

Nevermind bro, I think I just misunderstood what you meant there.

Its okay. I didn't mean anything rude by my original statement if it seemed that way.

[Z00Z]

I've been asked to expand a little on the statistics equation mentioned earlier, so I'll post here for everyone's benefit as it affects a much broader consideration than the example above. The same principles apply though. 

 

If you want to use the BINOM.DIST formula in excel, the correct method is:

 

=1 - BINOM.DIST(X - 1,Y,Z,TRUE)

 

where:

 

X = No. of successful outcomes you looking for

Y = No. of trials (dice)

Z = probability (so a successful dice of 4,5,6 = 3/6; successful dice of 3,4,5,6 = 2/6) etc

 

The answer will be 0.xxx convert this to a %

 

A practical example: lets assume all STR7 twin-claws+furious charge vs T4

 

TWC rending...

 

You wanting to understand how based on how many 'Y' dice, what is the likelihood of getting how many rending's 

X = 1,2,3,4 

Y = 12 dice (lets assume you have 6 TWC, 30 odd attacks)

Z = looking for sixes (1/6)

 

1 88.78% 2 61.87% 3 32.26% 4 12.52% 5 3.64% 6 0.79% 7 0.13% 8 0.02% 9 0.00% 10 0.00% 11 0.00% 12 0.00%

 

with 12 dice 88% chance of 1 rend, 61% 2 rends etc.

 

Incidentally, if you factor the WS increase from CoF, it vastly increases as does dual CCW in getting more 'hits', more hits increases rend chances. 

 

Bit of theory-crafting, but you can see how the formula can be used for unit planning. 

 

EDIT: it should be 1/6 not 5/6 my bad. 

[skeletoro]

what you say does have solid maths behind it zooz, but assuming independence, means are going to be the best estimate of damage output. Terminator armour saves may have higher variance due to a small number of saves being rolled, but the average points lost to bolter fire will be the same (with twice the grey hunters)

 

now, if there was some later event dependent upon having some percentage of casualties, then I can see it potentially mattering. For instance, if as mission were to only allow units with zero casulaties tup score. That would give the advantage to t hr e TDA.

[skeletoro]

another situation it may matter is if overkill is a relatively likely event - 11 isn't any better than 10 if there are only 10 models, but the mean doesn't appreciate that ceiling.

[Z00Z]

I see your point, but means (averages) are only useful in real numbers. A dice for all intents and purposes could be labelled A,B,C,D,E,F. Each has its own independent classification. The fact that we roll 3+ actually means 3 or 4 or 5 or 6, or C,D,E,F. The mean or average of dice roll 4+6 is 5. Let's for arguments sake that we need a 5+ in this example. You can see that rolling 4's is irrelevant, but rolling 6's and 5's are. A mean score of 4.6 is also therefore irrelevant. A six-sided dice contains 6 variables, each independent from one another. 

 

This is why means is actually irrelevant for dice roll probabilities. The chance to roll any of the six numbers is 1 in 6. The more times you roll the dice, the higher the population(N) and the closer you will get to 1/6 when tallying it up. This is why you do probabilities as described above instead. You measure based on what outcomes you would like, and also what certainty you would like to have.

 

eg.  

 

I would like to have a minimum of 10 hits with Str X weapon hitting on 4's. How many shots do i need?

 

At 22 "to-hits" i can be 92% certain that I will hit 10 shots. 

At 20 "to-hits" I can be 81% certain that I will hit 10 shots. 

At 18 "to-hits" I can be 61% certain that I will hit 10 times.

 

Ok, pts cost for 3 bare TWC on the charge 120 (18 hits), but only 61% certain. 6 out 10 times I will get the outcome I was looking for "10 hits"

 

oops, they going down too quick, let me add 2 shields... + x pts, - 2 hits. Now I'm down to 33% chance to get 10 hits. "let me add another twc"

 

The only mean or average based calculation you can do in 40K is the model pts value. Even that is subjective based on loadout, i.e. my preference for a TWC might be dual-claw, because my personal preference or utility is based on rending+shred. Others it might be a utility of lower offence but more resilient with ss, and other still cheap+chearful with BP+CS. It will be to that persons utility preference basket that you can work out a relative subjective pts-per-wound,pts-per-kill,pts-per-defence utility.

 

Again, this isnt for winning outcomes prediction, but more useful for unit role + planning purposes. If you know the capabilities and probability outcomes for your main units and know what their probability results will be against typical opponents unit (toughness,armor,over saves,jink,FNP,etc), it will assist in the strategy in-game. For example, if i know that my 5 TWC or other unit has a 15% chance of taking down a knight or MC  beforehand, all the better :)

[skeletoro]

yes, it is invalid to say "my average die roll is 4.6 and I need a 5+" and I definitely wouldn't do that. Average number of casualties is a different thing though.

[skeletoro]

incidentally, that points inflicted per point spent is something I have used in the past. There's an old post by me somewhere on the topic hehe.

[Z00Z]

incidentally, that points inflicted per point spent is something I have used in the past. There's an old post by me somewhere on the topic hehe.

ooooo share pls. would save me developing my spreadsheet further

[skeletoro]

haha, I tried googling and couldn't find it. Do you know python? I actually half built a clunky outcome distribution calculator using 'dynamical' programming methods, but kinda ran out of energy. I am not a computer programmer by trade; it was just for fun.

it ran as an extension out of excel and would generate bar charts and stuff too.

 

it was going to have a library of weapons profiles, etc, and had a bunch of methods that would generate probabilities for every outcome (0 wounds inflicted, 1, 2, etc) given parameters for BS, WS, S,T etc, and I think it even had a few special rules built into it (maybe rerolls? Rending? I forget).

[skeletoro]

I ended up deciding I wanted to try doing it in C#, another language I don't know, and then kinda ran out of steam. But it was Making graphs and stuff with the python one.

[depolarization]

This may be a necro, but I've seen several videos where someone fields 4 Wolf Guard Terminators and an attached IC.  They seem to think that the attached IC brings the unit's total model count to 5, and so one of the terminators has a heavy weapon (flamer, cyclone, or assault cannon).

 

My understanding, is that the unit entry must be fulfilled within the dataslate.  So this is an illegal unit.  In order to get that heavy weapon, you need to field a unit of 5 terminators, not have a total unit model count of at least 5 (or 10 for 2 options, but I never lists with 10-model terminator units).  For that matter, I don't think you could have Arjac Rockfist count as one of the 5 models you need to unlock the heavy weapon option.

 

Can someone please clarify?  If I can cheat the unit's model count by attaching ICs, it would make me happy!

 

VLKA FENRIKA

[Z00Z]

An IC even before deployment 'joins' an already established unit. He is not in the unit in the first place. In fact you have to tell your opponent before deployment if an IC is joining a unit and which he is joining. That unit therefore would have to be a valid unit prior to him joining (even before deployment) in regards to the special wepaon. As an IC can leave and join units unrestricted during movement phase you can see how what they are doing ins invalid. In the termie case, you need 5 termie models (1 termie wolf guard leader + 4 regular termies to qualify for 1 special weapon or 1 termie wolf guard + 9 regular termies for 2 special weapons). 

[depolarization]

Thanks Z00Z!  It was bothering me when I saw it the other day.  As if it wasn't hard enough to explain Wolf Guard to people in the old dex.

[Guest Drunk Guardian]

It seems like SB/SS would be a good fit in a Stormwolf due to their near immunity to crash and burn! They certainly wouldn't be a primary unit in the list but they could cause problems for a lot of units, especially tarpittint big nasty units that would be difficult to deal with otherwise.

 

Too bad they can't take melta bombs.

[skeletoro]

I guess I don't really see the advantage of massed SB/SS compared to, say, a mix of heavy/SS, combi/SS and th/SS. Cheaper but storm bolters aren't very intimidating.

[Valerian]

I guess I don't really see the advantage of massed SB/SS compared to, say, a mix of heavy/SS, combi/SS and th/SS. Cheaper but storm bolters aren't very intimidating.

 

Agreed.  It is a very survivable unit that does negligible damage; I don't see much point in having one of those.  If they can't reliably damage enemy units, then they'll just get ignored while your adversary prioritizes his firepower against your other units that actually can/do have an impact on his forces.

 

V