How to make sure you get the charge

[Ganders]

So how do you do it? It seems some units such as Death Company can be devastating on the charge but how do you make sure that you get the charge and are not charged yourself?

 

If you are deep striking/podding what is the optimal distance to be away from the enemy to give you the best chance of charging them on your next turn?

 

Please note I'm not talking about coming out of an assault vehicle such as a Storm Raven/Land Raider. I am more concerned with deep striking or jump pack bouncing across the board.

 

Thanks

[Jolemai]

In my opinion, 9" is a good number to work by.

 

To avoid a charge, be outside of this following their movement. To get a charge, be within this number after movement.

[CrystalSeer]

Charge distance is 2d6 or 2d6-2 if you are going through cover. Average roll on 2d6 is 7 (50% over 50% under)

 

So if through cover, 5" gives you a 50% chance of making it, if not through cover, 7" is 50%

 

The ways to increase your chances are things that give you re-rolls, which to my knowledge is High Marshall Helbrecht, or using jump packs in the assault phase. I don't know the new BA codex though so there may be some things in there.

[Jacinda]

Charge distance is 2d6 or 2d6-2 if you are going through cover. Average roll on 2d6 is 7 (50% over 50% under)

There is a 21 out of 36 chance of rolling 7 or higher. This gives a 58.33% chance of making the roll. When doing fast calculations, I usually call it 60%.

 

With jump troops, you want to end your move 15 to 17 inches away from the target. This puts you at a long shot for them to charge you (6" move and 10" charge) but easily in your range (12" move and 4" charge). Most likely the target will move up to rapid fire range which is perfect for your Seraphim to lay down all those shredding templates ... ummm, I mean you can safely make a charge even after remove the front few models from shooting.

 

If you are using base units on foot, there is no way to assure that you will charge next turn without being in an easy charge range yourself. In those cases, bring flamers and models with a high Initiative.

 

But don't forget one of the cardinal rules of combat. No plan survives first contact with the enemy.

[Kaedes Nex]

2". I don't mess around when it comes to the dice gods.

 

6"-7" I'll auto-take, though, due to law of averages. Anything above 7" is a Death or Glory style crapshoot. When I see a 10"+ charge, sure I'll try to take it, but I never assume I'm going to make it. Go into games with the mentality of "If I take that 12" charge, I could win the game, but I probably won't make it" rather than "I lost that game because my charge came up short!/I would have won if I just rolled 10 or more!"

 

But 3"-5" charge results happen a hell of a lot, as I'm sure all of you know. The narrative forging is real.

[Sheesh Mode]

What are the averages when you can re-roll one or both dice? As player who runs a Khorne Deathstar with an Icon of Wrath this topic is of particular note for me. 

[Jacinda]

Q: If you roll a die 3 times and get a 6 each time, what is the chance that the 4th roll will also be a 6?

A: 1 in 6.

 

Re-rolling 1 or both dice does not change the base odds. You'll get a 7 or better 60% of the time when rolling 2 dice. If you get less and want to re-roll, you will get a 7 or better 60% of the time.

 

If you want to re-roll one die, you will get a higher number (6-N)/6 times. So you can do better than a 2 66% of the time. Better than a 5 17% of the time.

 

Put them together and you get decisions that are better calculated ad hoc rather than trying to memorise some table. If you need a 7" charge distance and roll a 3 and a 2, you would be better off rolling both dice (60% chance) than re-rolling the 2 in hopes of a 4 or better (50%). There is no average distance with re-rols allowed. There are still the same odds of getting a number on one or two dice each time they are rolled.

[Sheesh Mode]

I know very little of probability, however, I think your statement is an oversimplification. But I am unsure why.

[Kaedes Nex]

I know very little of probability, however, I think your statement is an oversimplification. But I am unsure why.

 

No, it's pretty sound. I think they call it Gambler's Fallacy or something like that. It is incomplete, though. Should one of your charge dice come up as a 4+, you are better off keeping it because you have a 50% chance of rolling lower than that on your reroll, and while the chance of rolling a 6 after rolling 3 other 6's is 1/6, the chances of rolling four 6's in a row is lower than the chances of rolling four 6's with five rolls (three rolls, then the fourth roll, plus a reroll).

 

Jacinda is right when you reach the point that you've already rolled your dice and are examining the odds of the reroll's results. But if you haven't even rolled your dice yet, your probability of getting a good charge is slightly higher if you are allowed a reroll. Because then it becomes 1/6 + (1/6 * 1/6) instead of just 1/6 + 1/6. So let's say we're trying to roll 4+ or higher with one charge die (or a To Hit die). Normally it would be 1/2 or 50%. But with the reroll factored in, the chances of getting a 4+ are 1/2 + (1/2 * 1/2) = 3/4 or 75%. What Jacinda's saying is that if you failed your first roll, your chance of the reroll being 3+ is still 50%.

 

The easiest way to think of it is that if you're at the stage where you're having to reroll your dice, you've already "used" or "wasted" that extra 25% chance by activating the reroll. You're now back to square one and the odds are as if you never had the reroll to begin with. But if you didn't have the reroll you'd have already failed, so that extra 25% has already come into play.

[Sheesh Mode]

But then, the point is that there is a greater probability of achieving the desired result due to the re-roll no?

[Kaedes Nex]

Yes, your chances of rolling a successful or higher-than-average charge length if you possess a charge reroll ability is higher than it would be if you did not.

 

I think the average numerical result of a rerolled charge is still the same though, because your reroll's chances are the same as your normal rolls' chances. So higher chance to get a good roll, but the average amount you will charge is still the same. It's like three coins. If you flip two coins, the "average" will be 1 heads 1 tails going by a very oversimplified example. If you flip two coins but you are allowed to cancel the results and re-flip one or both coins, the average is still 1 heads 1 tails, because the end result is still just two coin flips.

 

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, math isn't my specialty.

[ChapelXIII]

Alright so what a re-roll does is increase your likely hood in by the amount you pass by the amount you fail. So if you have a 60% chance of a success, then you have a 40% chance of failure. So if you get to re-roll you have another 60% chance of success for that 40% chance of failure.

 

So 60% + 60%(40%), or .6 + .6(.4) =  .84 or 84%. 

 

I hope that makes sense. Been a while since my courses in statistics. I will also note that this gets much more complicated if you get to chose which dice you get to re-roll. These are only the stats for if you get to re-roll both dice.  

[Acebaur]

I've been playing smaller games lately but so far in my experience, most units don't want to assault you unless it is itself an assault unit. So if you are trying to charge that unit with lots of guns they are more likely to simply move up and try and reduce your numbers by rapid firing or shooting you with whatever else they may have. So with this in mind I try to get as close as possible to ensure that I can be in 2" range on my turn so I can do some damage shooting and then have a good chance of charging subsequently. 

[Ming]

I'd have to say....

 

1.  As a reminder, a unit coming in from reserves cannot assault that turn...just as a reminder.  

2.  Because you need to drop close enough, the most ideal position is a location from which you can shoot a unit that itself cannot assault you that turn (but could eliminate you by other means), and still is about 18 to 24 inches away from the real unit you want to assault the following turn.  

 

Example: 10 Jump pack assault marines arrive by deep strike on top of turn 2.  Has 2 MGs and a IP.  They drop in at a location 6 inches from the flank/rear of a chaos vindicator, and 18-24 or so inches from a large cultist squad camping on an objective.  In turn 2 shooting, wrecks the vindicator through a combination of the 3 melta shots and a krak grenade (+/- pistols if rear arc).  On bottom of turn 2, the chaos cultists re-position forward a bit to still claim the objective and get the assault squad in optimum shooting range (now less than 18 inches).  One or two assault marines are removed as casualties.  On the top of turn 3, the jump pack assault marines move 12 inches toward the cultists (shoot pistols/MGs/IP if desired) and then assault (or walk forward 6 and then try to jump further +/- fleet +/- hammer of wrath hits +/- dangerous terrain if the cultists are in cover).  The cultists are largely eliminated, +/- fail morale, +/- are wiped out or run off the table. Assault marines consolidate/spread out for protection from return fire while looking to claim their next victims.