Grey knights at the LVO

[Reclusiarch Darius]

40K is a dud game. It's broken and the rules are sloppy. The only redeeming feature it has is the beer-and-pretzels appeal where I can get together with some mates and have a laugh as our toy soldiers blow each other up. As a result, aesthetic and theme are very important to me and game-play and on-table performance are less so. I still want to win, but not at the expense of my theme or the look of my army.

 

That's why the centstar (and Centurions in general) is so abhorrent to me. There should never be a circumstance where Draigo decides to forsake his brothers to taxi around a group of Centurions. And don't get me started on Purifiers catching a lift in a SW or BA drop pod. Just no. Allies should be used to boost an armies theme and aesthetic, not just to get a boost on the table top. 40K isn't a good enough game that I can get a kick from playing it to win like that, it just breaks too easily.

 

That's fine, and by all means play the game how you wish to. But equally, you should be aware of what builds are doing the rounds. Ironically, some of the most obnoxious power builds are 100% theme and totally in line with the lore. TripTide? Tau are trying out their new battlesuit prototype. Serpent Spam? Saim Hann mechanised warfare. ScreamerStar? Daemons don't follow rules as their...rule, and Tzeentch Heralds on Disks rolling with Screamer is completely theme. 

 

See what I mean? Yes, maybe Draigo 'Gating' Centurions around is a tad silly and doesn't make sense. But we lack anything close to Grav-Centurions in our own codex, so Draigo has no themed unit to roll around with. Paladins don't count. They used to be best buds, but then the Riptide was born and TDA became irrelevant to the meta. 

The sad thing is, it's the non-competetive players that are bashing the game as it stands today, while the players that actually play competetively are enjoying a renaissance in the game.

 

As I always say, if you think this is not the game for you, you are right.

 

Partially agree. You know, I think 7th as core rules is mostly okay. Like, GW as always don't clarify a lot of stuff, but they somewhat balanced FMC's, and the general increase in AA has kept Flyer or FMC spam armies from taking over. They're still annoying, but not 6th edition broken. Psychic phase is a lot more fun, and I like they've put it all into one part of the game. No more having to remember to cast at the start of Assault or whatever. I like that, and the fact Denying isn't so awful anymore (even non-psychic armies now can throw all their dispel at a big power like 'Invis' and potentially stop it). 

 

It's (as always I think) the army books which are the issue. Tau and Eldar are 6th edition hangovers, and they're still enjoying the fruits of broken combos that 7th has done nothing to curb. The army rules themselves need nerfing, not core rules really. Daemons also need Grimoire banished to the nether realm, and Tzeentch should give a buff to psychic powers not to invul saves (re-rolling 1's is obnoxiously good). Necrons are insane, and I still have no idea how they got printed as is. Decurion is...I feel depressed fighting against it. It's like getting your arms and legs amputated, then told you have to last 5 rounds in the ring, and you're not allowed to headbutt. 

 

Against the non-power armies, I'm having fun. Marines have fits taking out DK's before my Terminators seal the deal. Nids lose their minds when I explain what 'Cleansing Flame' and heavy incinerators do. Orks are a blast, it's always bloody as hell and random too. DE are my nightmare fuel in a shooting match, but if you get first turn they're a lot less scary (and they melt in melee). Imperial Guard are interesting, a bit like Orks but without the melee threat. Nemesis Strikeforce is so much fun when I'm not eating Tau Interceptor. 

 

To people who don't like the game anymore, I'd suggest taking a break and trying something else. Warmahordes, Infinity, Bolt Action etc. Even trying out 40k RPG's might re-kindle your love of the lore and your army. 

[Gentlemanloser]

You know, I think 7th as core rules is mostly okay.

I wish the B&C had the 'scream' smiley.

Have to combine;

;)

[Happy-inquisitor]

Bring me actual statistics and we can debate them. Anecdotes don't count, nor do vague sweeping statements about how we place in the middle or bottom tiers. Yes, but so do Sisters and Orks. Are they winning tournaments? No. 

 

 

It feels like that is where the thread started. The full set of results was linked to on that first link - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jCcVilaW2pvunF-UlbM67ah0tDDBIc2u4PeT1klO6dk/edit#gid=1482831394

 

All of the top 8 lists are posted up at http://bloodofkittens.com/blog/2015/02/23/tits-tournaments-las-vegas-open-2015-top-lists/

 

We can even view the finals games to understand where and why those lists won or lost (the GK list rolled a 1 on a deep strike mishap with the Draigo-star. Ouch).

 

So any one tournament is only one data point but at least with LVO it is a pretty big data point and with 256 players starting they will have got close to 1500 games of 7th edition 40K played which is more than I am ever going to manage - so it is data that can maybe teach me something. It is  a whole lot more than the usual "I think codex X is broken" opinion on internet forums and we can see for ourselves how some of the major armies are shaping up well into 7th with a data sample big enough to be worth putting some thought into. What stood out to me was the strong showing of GK (and IK, which I expected) over the armies that  frequently get panned for being OP. That does not mean that Eldar (for example) are suddenly a pushover but it does mean that enough people have found competitive lists that can cope with them that it matters and it clearly can be done.

 

Is it relevant to my local meta or yours? Well that depends on the format of games you play, the scenarios and the house rules for all those fuzzy areas. At least we can look on frontlinegaming.org and see exactly what circumstances those results happened in and see how close that is to the way our games are going to play out. At least all that information is out there unlike an anecdote or unsubstantiated opinion so we can actually use it with an understanding of its context.

[Adeptus]

See what I mean? Yes, maybe Draigo 'Gating' Centurions around is a tad silly and doesn't make sense. But we lack anything close to Grav-Centurions in our own codex, so Draigo has no themed unit to roll around with. Paladins don't count. They used to be best buds, but then the Riptide was born and TDA became irrelevant to the meta.

 

I think where our opinions diverge is that you consider something that might be a bit average to 'not count'. I think Paladins still very much count. Sure, some games you'll get unlucky and the whole unit will get melted by Riptides, but you know what? I just don't care. When I'm playing some games, I can set the background and the theme aside and just enjoy the interactions of the units from a purely mechanical, competitive point of view but 40K isn't one of those games. I agree with you that the core rules are actually pretty good, but the codexes ruin it for everyone, largely because GW simply can't sustain a balanced and consistent approach to codex design over the course of a single edition.

 

So once you strip away the veneer or lore and theme, it's kind of like seeing the man behind the curtain in the Wizard of Oz. It's very underwhelming, and I'd much rather lose with a themed army, than win with a tricked-out one.

[Brom MKIV]

Nothing wrong with themed lists. Nothing wrong with tricked out allies either. To me they're all just options at my disposal, each combination produces the chance at a different type of game. IMO it's more important to be on the same page as your opponent in terms of power level, or at least aware of the disparity and up for the challenge.

[Reclusiarch Darius]

It feels like that is where the thread started. The full set of results was linked to on that first link - https://docs.google....#gid=1482831394

 

All of the top 8 lists are posted up at http://bloodofkitten...2015-top-lists/

 

We can even view the finals games to understand where and why those lists won or lost (the GK list rolled a 1 on a deep strike mishap with the Draigo-star. Ouch).

 

So any one tournament is only one data point but at least with LVO it is a pretty big data point and with 256 players starting they will have got close to 1500 games of 7th edition 40K played which is more than I am ever going to manage - so it is data that can maybe teach me something. It is  a whole lot more than the usual "I think codex X is broken" opinion on internet forums and we can see for ourselves how some of the major armies are shaping up well into 7th with a data sample big enough to be worth putting some thought into. What stood out to me was the strong showing of GK (and IK, which I expected) over the armies that  frequently get panned for being OP. That does not mean that Eldar (for example) are suddenly a pushover but it does mean that enough people have found competitive lists that can cope with them that it matters and it clearly can be done.

 

Is it relevant to my local meta or yours? Well that depends on the format of games you play, the scenarios and the house rules for all those fuzzy areas. At least we can look on frontlinegaming.org and see exactly what circumstances those results happened in and see how close that is to the way our games are going to play out. At least all that information is out there unlike an anecdote or unsubstantiated opinion so we can actually use it with an understanding of its context.

 

Yeah, and even every game of 40k can teach you things about it. But what's important is to have perspective. I'm not surprised people have figured out counters to Serpent Spam and other power builds. It was bound to happen. It doesn't mean those power builds have gone away though, or that suddenly RIptides don't do what they do. Other armies get options though. We don't. We have Terminators and Dreadknights, and a few other specialists units. But those two core choices are all we really have as workhorses. Everything else is situational, and sometimes downright unusable. 

I think where our opinions diverge is that you consider something that might be a bit average to 'not count'. I think Paladins still very much count. Sure, some games you'll get unlucky and the whole unit will get melted by Riptides, but you know what? I just don't care. When I'm playing some games, I can set the background and the theme aside and just enjoy the interactions of the units from a purely mechanical, competitive point of view but 40K isn't one of those games. I agree with you that the core rules are actually pretty good, but the codexes ruin it for everyone, largely because GW simply can't sustain a balanced and consistent approach to codex design over the course of a single edition.

 

So once you strip away the veneer or lore and theme, it's kind of like seeing the man behind the curtain in the Wizard of Oz. It's very underwhelming, and I'd much rather lose with a themed army, than win with a tricked-out one.

 

I care. I care that GW created a unit that insta-hard counters everything we have. You know that Riptides kill DK's on average dice too, right? Double tap on their secondary twin fusion or twin plasma plus the main gun usually does it in. And when you fight multiples...it's depressing. Getting Dragoned isn't exactly fun either. 

 

'Theme' doesn't help matters. Ultimately, it's better if you have a list that has gone through the rigours of fighting the power lists, and thus stronger. I'm speaking of pickup or competitive games, of course. If you have regular mates who don't own Tau or whatever, then have fun by all means. But when we give advice on forums, it has to be pitched at that wider meta. I fully sympathise though. I wish our codex wasn't so boring. But it is. 

Nothing wrong with themed lists. Nothing wrong with tricked out allies either. To me they're all just options at my disposal, each combination produces the chance at a different type of game. IMO it's more important to be on the same page as your opponent in terms of power level, or at least aware of the disparity and up for the challenge. 

 

Yeah exactly. Make sure you set the playing field right, and both know what to expect. Seal clubbing is banned for a reason ;)

[Happy-inquisitor]

I care. I care that GW created a unit that insta-hard counters everything we have. You know that Riptides kill DK's on average dice too, right? Double tap on their secondary twin fusion or twin plasma plus the main gun usually does it in.

 

 

On average an Ion/fusion riptide with markerlight support and successful Nova charge will do 3.3 wounds before saves. Without the Nova charge that drops to 2.5 and as we are assuming the attempt the riptide itself takes a wound.

 

To look at it another way the chances of that riptide with markerlight support of inflicting 4 wounds before saves is 26%, the odds of it doing 5 wounds is 7%. You then need to fail your invun saves - your chances of failing 4 out of 4 even without Sanctuary are 20%. So if you never bother to use Sanctuary you can reasonably expect Riptides to one-shot your NDK less than one time in 10.

 

By contrast if you use force on a gatling psilencer you have 22% chance of instant death on that riptide, more if you give the NDK equivalent support such as Prescience. Activating force is much more likely than a Nova charge and Tau are just about the worst army in the game for denying so that really does not shift the odds down to being as bad as that Nova charge (especially as you have more than one NDK, right?). The riptide cannot FNP this and the invun save does not help. Its superior weapon range is irrelevant if you are deep-striking into your 24" range - in any case the fusion blasters have inferior range anyway.

[Gentlemanloser]

Mathammer wins again! :D

[Reclusiarch Darius]

On average an Ion/fusion riptide with markerlight support and successful Nova charge will do 3.3 wounds before saves. Without the Nova charge that drops to 2.5 and as we are assuming the attempt the riptide itself takes a wound.

 

To look at it another way the chances of that riptide with markerlight support of inflicting 4 wounds before saves is 26%, the odds of it doing 5 wounds is 7%. You then need to fail your invun saves - your chances of failing 4 out of 4 even without Sanctuary are 20%. So if you never bother to use Sanctuary you can reasonably expect Riptides to one-shot your NDK less than one time in 10.

 

By contrast if you use force on a gatling psilencer you have 22% chance of instant death on that riptide, more if you give the NDK equivalent support such as Prescience. Activating force is much more likely than a Nova charge and Tau are just about the worst army in the game for denying so that really does not shift the odds down to being as bad as that Nova charge (especially as you have more than one NDK, right?). The riptide cannot FNP this and the invun save does not help. Its superior weapon range is irrelevant if you are deep-striking into your 24" range - in any case the fusion blasters have inferior range anyway.

 

I was speaking of the plasma Tide (they put the fusion on Crisis these days IME). Plasma Tides regularly kill my DK's, and because they're in multiples (as ours should be, for the exact same reason), they combine fire and kill a DK a turn. Believe me, this happens with such regularity I want to quit 40k when I play Tau. Markerlights are always pointed at your DK's, without fail, every Shooting phase till they're dead. 

 

Gatling psilencers are so RNG it's not funny. Firstly, you need to hit (12 shots does make it likely but usually its only 8 hits or so). Then, you need to wound (1 out of 6, so yeah even with a full 12 hits because you 'Prescienced' or whatever, on average you only cause 2 wounds). Then, they need to fail a 2+ save. Granted, they only need to fail once (thank Throne they can't FNP 'Force' wounds). It's why if you're gonna bother with gat psilencer at all, you should take it on every DK and combine fire at the thing you wanna insta-gib. Even against Broadsides, I've had heartbreak trying to break their 2+ save. I'm taking them for other reasons though (TWC and Wraiths give me heartburn when I fight them, and the rest of our arsenal just plinks off them). 

[Happy-inquisitor]

I was speaking of the plasma Tide (they put the fusion on Crisis these days IME). Plasma Tides regularly kill my DK's, and because they're in multiples (as ours should be, for the exact same reason), they combine fire and kill a DK a turn. Believe me, this happens with such regularity I want to quit 40k when I play Tau. Markerlights are always pointed at your DK's, without fail, every Shooting phase till they're dead. 

 

Gatling psilencers are so RNG it's not funny. Firstly, you need to hit (12 shots does make it likely but usually its only 8 hits or so). Then, you need to wound (1 out of 6, so yeah even with a full 12 hits because you 'Prescienced' or whatever, on average you only cause 2 wounds). Then, they need to fail a 2+ save. Granted, they only need to fail once (thank Throne they can't FNP 'Force' wounds). It's why if you're gonna bother with gat psilencer at all, you should take it on every DK and combine fire at the thing you wanna insta-gib. Even against Broadsides, I've had heartbreak trying to break their 2+ save. I'm taking them for other reasons though (TWC and Wraiths give me heartburn when I fight them, and the rest of our arsenal just plinks off them). 

 

 

The probabilities on a plasma tide are very similar, the STR 6 roll to wound rather than STR 8 almost cancels out the extra shot even if they are within 12" - outside 12" it is significantly worse. Voluntarily moving a riptide within 12" of a Dreadknight would be a gamble on the part of the Tau player - the consequences of getting caught in assault are very one-sided.

 

The reason I bothered putting figures out there is because without a reasonable understanding of the probabilities players will make poor decisions. If someone mistakenly believes that a riptide is highly likely to take down their NDK in one shooting phase they will make poor tactical decisions - so their defeat will become a sort of self fulfilling prophecy. If they understand that it is possible but unlikely they can play a much more optimal game and improve their chances of winning.

 

Interestingly the odds of killing the riptide with a gatling psilencer while not great are actually good enough to sometimes improve the survival of the NDK more by activating force than by activating sanctuary (because dead riptides do not kill NDK). On the other hand if you expect a long drawn-out chase around the table then sanctuary will preserve wounds better against AP2 shooting and is a more optimal strategy.

[Happy-inquisitor]

Mathammer wins again!

I don't want anyone to be a slave to mathhammer but in a dice game the ability to understand and think through probabilities helps to make good tactical decisions - and even list building decisions.

Like many things the more often you really properly think these things through the better you get at making good snap decisions on the table. Learning and developing a feel for this sort of probability is possible just by repetition and practice but for mathematically minded people like me it is a whole lot quicker to just work things through to get an understanding for which options are likely to be good or bad in a game.

But then this is a game with a significant random element so all we can ever do is tilt the odds. Those two top lists at LVO were so close that over the weekend each beat the other once - the difference was not the player or the list, it was luck in all its forms!

[Adeptus]

 Sure, some games you'll get unlucky and the whole unit will get melted by Riptides, but you know what? I just don't care.

I care.

 

You'll enjoy 40K a lot more if you stop caring so much ;)

[jeffersonian000]

 

 

Sure, some games you'll get unlucky and the whole unit will get melted by Riptides, but you know what? I just don't care.

I care.

You'll enjoy 40K a lot more if you stop caring so much ;)

I learned a long time ago the set my bar very low, so that my expectation are aways met or exceeded. It's very freeing, and makes for a much more enjoyable life.

 

SJ

[Reclusiarch Darius]

The probabilities on a plasma tide are very similar, the STR 6 roll to wound rather than STR 8 almost cancels out the extra shot even if they are within 12" - outside 12" it is significantly worse. Voluntarily moving a riptide within 12" of a Dreadknight would be a gamble on the part of the Tau player - the consequences of getting caught in assault are very one-sided.

Well when they take their Riptides in the Anti-Marine formation, they re-roll 1's to wound. Even in a normal list, it's 4x S6 AP2 twin-linked shots, they usually cause 2 wounds with it alone. Also, they don't move into 12", I'm in their grill trying to get into melee. That's the point. We can't wait to get picked off at range, you have to commit to an assault attempt or enjoy getting ground down. It's not a gamble when you can Supporting Fire and use markerlights to boost to 4+ to hit.

The reason I bothered putting figures out there is because without a reasonable understanding of the probabilities players will make poor decisions. If someone mistakenly believes that a riptide is highly likely to take down their NDK in one shooting phase they will make poor tactical decisions - so their defeat will become a sort of self fulfilling prophecy. If they understand that it is possible but unlikely they can play a much more optimal game and improve their chances of winning.

Your figures mean nothing without context. That's what I'm saying. No Tau player is gonna just shoot one Riptide at one DK and then go 'oh I didn't kill it, guess I'll shoot the other one'. They combine fire, like anyone would. Not to mention, I also normally eat 2x 3-man Broadsides teams, dumping 12x S7 and 12x S5 shots into my army per squad. Plus they Supporting Fire, and it's all twin-linked. Joy.

Interestingly the odds of killing the riptide with a gatling psilencer while not great are actually good enough to sometimes improve the survival of the NDK more by activating force than by activating sanctuary (because dead riptides do not kill NDK). On the other hand if you expect a long drawn-out chase around the table then sanctuary will preserve wounds better against AP2 shooting and is a more optimal strategy.

>drawn out chase

Have you ever fought Tau? They camp, and shoot your face off all day erry day. Yes, they might manouvre to avoid melee and feed you Kroot/Fire Warriors/Devilfish to keep their battlesuit units alive, but it's still castling. 'Sanctuary' is okay, but I'd be trying to get 'Prescience' and 'Force' activated first. If I have some spare charges, I'll try for 'Sanctuary' too, but it's not likely to save you if the Tau player wants that DK dead. Prioritization is key, you generally only get 1-2 shooting phases to do real damage before you're either dead or in melee anyway.

You'll enjoy 40K a lot more if you stop caring so much

I would if I could avoid Tau. But like I said, 3 local players. I'm forced to care what Riptides do.

[Happy-inquisitor]

 

Have you ever fought Tau? They camp, and shoot your face off all day erry day. Yes, they might manouvre to avoid melee and feed you Kroot/Fire Warriors/Devilfish to keep their battlesuit units alive, but it's still castling. 'Sanctuary' is okay, but I'd be trying to get 'Prescience' and 'Force' activated first. If I have some spare charges, I'll try for 'Sanctuary' too, but it's not likely to save you if the Tau player wants that DK dead. Prioritization is key, you generally only get 1-2 shooting phases to do real damage before you're either dead or in melee anyway. 

 

 

Yes I have but I like inquisitors so my approach has to be different to what I would do with NDK spam. It basically comes down to whether I can suppress enough of their shooting phase by the outcomes of my psychic phase. If I have a bad psychic phase I'm going to get shot off the table, if it goes well I am (probably) going to smash face in assault.

 

I really don't rate prescience that highly in this match up - except on the shooty henchmen who actually have the high-quality shots that can hurt a key unit. Depending on what exactly I am facing I am most likely to go with lots of telepathy as most of the powers either target the mediocre leadership and lack of fearless models in the Tau codex or mitigate their shooting and put excessive demands on their need for markerlights to hurt me. Sanctuary fits this tactic and this is when I would be using it. The second psychic phase is then when I load up on hammerhand and force.

 

I should point out that gun-line Tau are a feature of the basic BRB scenarios which IMO are OK as a starter for 12 year olds picking up the game for the first time but really lack tactical depth for good games. There are plenty of scenarios available online which are well tested in tournaments and which have a lot more depth to them, gun-lines are too tactically simplistic to thrive in those scenarios.

[Brom MKIV]

This discussion of tau really illustrates why we need allies. We need a stronger ranged presence to allow the rest of the list to function against opponents like tau that specialize in deleting elite units. Otherwise they can just focus on the lynchpin dreadknights. I have a challenge match coming up against a farsight bomb with 2-3 tides, not sure on the specifics. Pretty nightmarish for a pure gk force. I know this same player tabled a strong wolves army by turn 2 recently.

[BetterOffShred]

I know this same player tabled a strong wolves army by turn 2 recently.

That's just dumb.. I'd pack up my plastic and go drown my sorrows across the street at the pub ..

-Brett

[Brom MKIV]

On the contrary I plan on returning the favor! That said I'm not going pure. It takes over 50 psycannon shots to drop one riptide with shields up.Then there's the stealth shrouded bomb and obsec solo suits dropping in everywhere.

[Reclusiarch Darius]

Yes I have but I like inquisitors so my approach has to be different to what I would do with NDK spam. It basically comes down to whether I can suppress enough of their shooting phase by the outcomes of my psychic phase. If I have a bad psychic phase I'm going to get shot off the table, if it goes well I am (probably) going to smash face in assault.

 

How exactly are you going to suppress a Tau gunline? 

I really don't rate prescience that highly in this match up - except on the shooty henchmen who actually have the high-quality shots that can hurt a key unit. Depending on what exactly I am facing I am most likely to go with lots of telepathy as most of the powers either target the mediocre leadership and lack of fearless models in the Tau codex or mitigate their shooting and put excessive demands on their need for markerlights to hurt me. Sanctuary fits this tactic and this is when I would be using it. The second psychic phase is then when I load up on hammerhand and force.

 

'Presience' allows you to re-roll all failed rolls to hit. Shooting and melee, until your next Psychic phase. That's huge, it's why it was nerfed to WC2 in 7th. 

 

Telepathy can be amusing, but it relies on too many factors to work. Tau infantry have bad Leadership, but they're not the real issue. Riptides are Ld9, Broadsides and Crisis are Ld8. On average dice, a lot of the Telepathy morale-based powers fail to do anything. Even 'Psychic Shriek' requires you to spike hard on the 3D6 (you need to roll a 9 or higher to actually do serious damage). Not to mention, Riptides still get their 3+ invul and 5+ FNP against 'Psychic Shriek'. 

I should point out that gun-line Tau are a feature of the basic BRB scenarios which IMO are OK as a starter for 12 year olds picking up the game for the first time but really lack tactical depth for good games. There are plenty of scenarios available online which are well tested in tournaments and which have a lot more depth to them, gun-lines are too tactically simplistic to thrive in those scenarios.

 

No, they're not. Tau feature at every major tournament in existence, and they routinely shoot other armies off the table. That's their strength. You can't play the mission if you're dead. 

This discussion of tau really illustrates why we need allies. We need a stronger ranged presence to allow the rest of the list to function against opponents like tau that specialize in deleting elite units. Otherwise they can just focus on the lynchpin dreadknights. I have a challenge match coming up against a farsight bomb with 2-3 tides, not sure on the specifics. Pretty nightmarish for a pure gk force. I know this same player tabled a strong wolves army by turn 2 recently. 

 

You should just not play Farsight Bomb. It's utterly absurd what that single Deathstar does. 

On the contrary I plan on returning the favor! That said I'm not going pure. It takes over 50 psycannon shots to drop one riptide with shields up.Then there's the stealth shrouded bomb and obsec solo suits dropping in everywhere. 

 

Yeah which is why you ignore Riptides until you are in charge range. It's just not worth shooting them. I think pure GK can beat Tau, but you really need to go 4x DK to make it happen. They'll kill 2 on average before you hit charge range, so having 2 more is critical. 

[Happy-inquisitor]

 

Yes I have but I like inquisitors so my approach has to be different to what I would do with NDK spam. It basically comes down to whether I can suppress enough of their shooting phase by the outcomes of my psychic phase. If I have a bad psychic phase I'm going to get shot off the table, if it goes well I am (probably) going to smash face in assault.

 

How exactly are you going to suppress a Tau gunline? 

 

Wow, that one is definitely an essay question!

 

The number of variables in this is very high; exactly which threats I am most concerned by, how they have deployed, which powers I actually generated on the rolls. What I find is that most of the Telepathy powers are useful on those critical first two turns one way or another and what really matters is having a clear plan in mind for the psychic phase and a strong idea of the probability of each power contributing to that aim.

 

So just for one example of how I try to think this through I would typically give Broadside teams a pretty high target priority - I have squishy PAGK and Inquisitors on the table who get chewed to bits by those things. They are usually sitting in a good firing position in moderate cover, Only one unit of mine has AP2 weapons to really be worth using Prescience on, Prescience on any other would increase the likely unsaved wound count by less than 0.5 and the chances of even forcing a morale check from this are not good. Terrify on the other hand has a 15/36 chance of making them take to their heels and run - if I can follow it up with psychic scream I have a much better chance of doing 2 wounds and if I do they are now having to make multiple checks at the lower leadership. For the same warp charge in powers I have a better overall chance of putting that broadside squad out of shooting action for the critical turn and if they have castled up in the corner they might even fall off the table edge for me. So then I need to think forwards from the start of the phase how to bait the deny dice so that I can increase my chances of the Terrify/Scream combo working etc.

 

With 15 + 1d6 warp dice it is all about maximising those averages per warp dice available.

 

Obviously I do not expect to suppress the whole gunline, I try to suppress enough and/or boost my defences enough that I have units left after that shooting phase to get into combat and get work done. I expect to take losses, I just try to limit them to acceptable levels by the most efficient means available. I have tried Divination against Tau and found it deeply disappointing, the maths backs that up - it is just not as efficient against that particular opposition. My shooting phase will contribute to the strategy but relying on Prescience + shooting to get the whole job done is just not an approach I will be trying again in a hurry, I am not playing AM blobguard. Prescience for CC in that first turn is pretty much irrelevant, its not like Tau are in a big hurry to charge into CC against Grey Knights. What kind of Tau list were you facing where you found this to be a factor?

[Reclusiarch Darius]

Terrify on the other hand has a 15/36 chance of making them take to their heels and run - if I can follow it up with psychic scream I have a much better chance of doing 2 wounds and if I do they are now having to make multiple checks at the lower leadership. For the same warp charge in powers I have a better overall chance of putting that broadside squad out of shooting action for the critical turn and if they have castled up in the corner they might even fall off the table edge for me. So then I need to think forwards from the start of the phase how to bait the deny dice so that I can increase my chances of the Terrify/Scream combo working etc.

 

Few things. Firstly, you need to be in range (IIRC most Telepathy powers are 18" or 24"). Secondly, you need to successfully manifest the power (WC1 should be easy, but it can fail, it's not guranteed like a gun or a melee attack is). The witchfire powers then have to roll to hit. Then, they have to fail a Leadership test in some way. A lot of Tau armies are taking an Ethereal in a Devilfish has a cheap way to not only make their mechanised Fire Warriors scary, but also to put a Ld10 bubble around their army to mitigate this exact issue. 

Obviously I do not expect to suppress the whole gunline, I try to suppress enough and/or boost my defences enough that I have units left after that shooting phase to get into combat and get work done. I expect to take losses, I just try to limit them to acceptable levels by the most efficient means available. I have tried Divination against Tau and found it deeply disappointing, the maths backs that up - it is just not as efficient against that particular opposition. My shooting phase will contribute to the strategy but relying on Prescience + shooting to get the whole job done is just not an approach I will be trying again in a hurry, I am not playing AM blobguard. Prescience for CC in that first turn is pretty much irrelevant, its not like Tau are in a big hurry to charge into CC against Grey Knights. What kind of Tau list were you facing where you found this to be a factor?

 

Well I can literally point to every power in Divination and state why it's relevant (not just against Tau either);

 

- Primaris: Re-rolls to hit in both your turn and your opponents turn is huge. I cannot overstate how important it is that we do not miss with our attacks. We're a tiny army, if we roll badly with shooting or melee we will be destroyed by superior enemy firepower and numbers. I've won and lost games due to 'Prescience' either being on or not. It's that good. There is a reason it got bumped up to WC2 in 7th, in 6th it was auto-include. 

- Foreboding: Counter-Attack is great for a slow army that typically gets charged first, and being able to Overwatch at full Ballistic Skill means you can deny charges very easily (keep in mind 'Prescience' stacks with this). Tau don't commonly charge you, but sometimes they like to bog you down in melee with their infantry (who will die to your charge next turn anyway), so they can reposition their battlesuits or move in tanks to block your charge and firing arcs. Kroot melt if they charge you with this up. It's a great little toolbox power against other melee armies too. 

- Forewarning: 4+ invulnerable save for a unit within 12". This stacks with 'Sanctuary', so you can give your DK a 3+ invul to keep him alive longer. It also makes Terminators a little more durable to plasma etc. Not broken good with us, but still quite nice for keeping a key unit alive. On Purifiers this can be amazingly good. It's also great that unlike Telepathy, this is an invulnerable save, not a cover save. Cover saves are able to be negated by Tau and any faction with access to 'Divination' psykers. 

- Perfect Timing: Ignore Cover for the psyker and his unit is huge. This can sometimes be better than 'Prescience', as you're ignoring a whole save type that might otherwise deny you the kill. Jinking Skimmers, FMC's, Bikes and Flyers are now a lot less durable to your shooting. Infantry cowering in cover likewise are dead meat. Transports popping smoke are dead. Very powerful shooting buff. Back when Coteaz+plasma cannon servitors were in-codex, this was my go-to combo for removing infantry at will. 

- Precognition: Re-rolls to hit, wound and save for the psyker. On a Librarian, this isn't too useful, but on a Grand Master it's solid gold. Especially when you stack it with Cuirass of Sacrifice and his psycannon. This is super-'Prescience' but for just the psyker. 

- Misfortune: All attacks on the target become Rending. This is solid gold with gatling psilencers and storm bolters (and even incinerators). I've killed battlesuit teams with this power (sadly Riptides have 3+ invul and 5+ FNP so unless I get past the invul with a 'Force' psilencer hit, it won't matter, they just save it). It can also be hilarious against vehicles. The force multiplier effect this power has is huge. If it were just for the unit that cast the power, that would be plenty strong. But this is for every attack that hits, including melee. 

- Scriers Gaze: Re-rolls for Reserves, and a buff for Maelstrom missions lol. I can happily say this is the least useful, as we normally take a Comms Array to do this guranteed. 

 

So, against Tau, 5/7 powers are useful, 1 cornercase if they try and tarpit you, and 1 pretty much a blank. 

 

How does Telepathy compare?

 

- Primaris: 18" range, 3D6 minus Leadership in wounds that ignore cover and armour saves. Now, I have once hilariously rolled a 15 for it and nuked a Riptide (he didn't have nova shield up though and failed both invul and FNP rolls). But this is really random and has a lot of failure points. Very risky. 

- Dominate: 24" range, Leadership test every time the enemy unit wants to do something. This really should've just Pinned the unit. Most armies have access to Leadership mitigation, and Tau have the Ethereal to get around this issue. 

- Mental Fortitude: We have Ld9/10 and ATSKNF. This might as well read blank. 

- Terrify: -1 to Leadership, everything you have causes Fear, and they take a Morale check at the end of the Psychic phase. The -1 penalty is nice, but causing Fear is kinda irrelevant (we already stomp face in melee). The Morale check could send the unit off-table potentially, but it's risky. This, like Shriek and Dominate, has a real potential to do nothing. 

- Shrouding: Grants +2 to cover saves. Which doesn't matter, because 'Scouring' from markerlights ignores cover anyway. 

- Invisibility: Game-breakingly good defensive tech, but only if you roll it. Also WC2. Also, markerlights can boost shots against the unit back up to a 4+ or even higher. 

- Hallucination: 24" range, random effect (oh joy). 1-2 is a straight Pinning test, which is...really mediocre for a WC2 power. 3-4 is -1 to WS/BS/I/A, which against is eh because Tau can boost their shooting (melee doesn't matter) with markerlights. 5-6 is gonna read blank a lot of the time, as Tau don't have to have squad leaders and commonly don't take them. It also only inflicts S3 hits per model in the unit when it does go off, which is hardly a threat. 

 

4/7 powers relevant (and I'm being generous, because two of those have the potential to do nothing at all if they just pass Leadership). 

 

See the issue? Divination fixes our low damage output by making it very reliable, negates cover, buffs saves against AP2, makes your army Rend when they gang up on a single target (which we commonly do, due to our low unit count), and lastly makes your psyker a great tank. Telepathy does none of those things, instead it offers some hexes that can be negated by high Leadership, Stubborn and/or re-rolls to Ld tests, a mind-bullet that again is pretty random, and the best defensive tech in the game but Tau can get around it. 

[Quozzo]

The thing I really like about divination is that they're all buffs, which benefits us greatly. If you buff a single unit then you're increasing the effectiveness of a large chunk of your army. I would rather have that than any witchfires or enemy debuffs.

[Reclusiarch Darius]

Yeah, and the added benefit is that blessings are the hardest powers to Deny. You get no bonuses when doing it, it's straight 6's (in our case Aegis allows re-rolls of 1's, because it's not a modifier to the roll). Witchfire and maledictions trigger Adamantium Will and other anti-psychic bonuses because they target (its one of the few drawbacks to 'Cleansing Flame', if it tags a psyker unit it can be shut off for all targets, although they only get one Deny attempt thankfully). 

[Brom MKIV]

Both disciplines are great straight up. Telepathy guarantees a power that can potentially one shot a MC with a chance at the best power in the game and shrouded as a consolation (crap vs tau of course). Very easy to default a roll on.. kinda like eldar do with RoF.

 

Divination takes a little more thought, not much but a little, but it has more force multipliers which except for invis are potentially much more powerful.

 

I've been abusing telepathy pretty heavily lately with loth but I've recently shifted gears to something different but I think potentially equal that focuses on divination instead.

[Reclusiarch Darius]

I've been abusing telepathy pretty heavily lately with loth but I've recently shifted gears to something different but I think potentially equal that focuses on divination instead. 

 

I'd actually argue Loth is more powerful with Biomancy. Put him up front, turn on his 2+ invul, and then cast 'Endurance' and 'Iron Arm'. Watch your opponent weep as you tank firepower like a god. He's stronger than Draigo in that regard, which is saying something. I just this 'Invis' has too many drawbacks to still work. 'Endurance' is still straight up absurd on any durable unit.