Help with Skitarii math-hammer?

[Kilofix]

Can someone help me with calculating the % chance to kill a T4 3+ MEQ with the following weapons, assuming BS4 and within respective Rapid Fire range?

 

Skitarii Rad Carbine

vs.

Skitarii Galvanic Rifle

vs.

Scion Hot-Shot Lasguns

 

Thanks so much!

[Teetengee]

One Rad Carbine: 3*2/3*(1/6*1/3+1/6*2*1/3)=0.333 marines dead on average (if firing at a unit of at least 6 marines per gun)
One Galvanic Rifle: 2*2/3*1/2*1/3=0.222 marines dead on average (if firing at a unit of at least 2 marines per gun)
    2*1/6*1/2*1/3=0.0556 marines of your choice dead on average (as above, and this is coming out of the 0.222)
One Hot Shot Lasgun: 2*2/3*1/3*1=0.444 marines dead on average (if firing at a unit of at least 2 marines per gun and no cover)


It is important to note that the limitations above are due to not taking into account that dealing 60 unsaved wounds to a 10 man unit does not kill 60 marines for instance, and such situations will inflate the actual averages seen, albeit not by much unless you are unloading lots of shots.

Also important, I totally did not answer the question you asked about what is the percent chance of each one killing a single marine, as it is a little different. The answer to that question is below.
Rad: 1-(1-1/2*(1/6*1/3+1/6*(1-(2/3)^2)))^3=0.206168 chance of killing at least one marine
Galv: 1-(1-1/2*1/2*1/3)^2=0.1597222 chance of killing at least one marine
Hot: 1-(1-1/2*1/3*1)^2=0.30556 chance of killing at least one marine

[Kilofix]

Thanks man, trying to figure out if Scions or Skitarii are better vs MEQ.

 

Looks like I'll stick to Scions. Even though they're slightly more expensive , they have DS.

 

And then just add Skitarii for Haywire.

[Stickeh]

I think if you're basing a decision solely on their effectiveness vs MEQ it will always skew in favour of the scions, but really they fulfill slightly different roles.

 

If we take a typical scion MSU load out as being 90 points (2 x melta guns) and the skitarii vanguard MSU as 85 (2 x arc rifles), these are very similar points values, but the skitarii provide the passive -1T in assaults, are slightly more survivable (6+ FNP) but crucially lack the deep strike. This turns them from a suicide squad (the most common role for scions) into a fairly durable foot slogging infantry unit with the potential to threaten vehicles from ~30". This is all purely hypothetical of course as until we have the skitarii book in our hands we don't know all the facts, but personally I think skitarii are going to have more all round utility in a TAC list, with scions being preferable in a list that needs surgical Melta.

[Vel'Cona]

I agree with Stickeh, the Skitarii Vanguard are meant to assume a different role, especially since we currently don't know if they'll have access to DS, Outflank, or even a transport!  While we can assume at least one of these is coming (or other options, like Scouts/Infiltrate), until we know it's hard to place them as easily as the Scions.

[Kilofix]

Yes definately, I agree with the above.

 

I intend to use Skitarii primarily for anti vehicle. The question I was considering was whether I should also stick with Skitarii for anti-MEQ or if I should ally in suicide Hotshot & Plasma Scions. Sounds like, with only what we know currently, it's the latter.