3D printing and its effect on future miniatures production

[LutherMax]

There's an interesting article by Vice on the subject:

 

http://www.vice.com/read/warhammer-3d-printed-miniatures

 

It speculates that in the future, when 3D printers become both better in terms of their output quality and more ubiquitous in our homes, Games Worshop may have to start selling miniatures as home-printable digital files rather than injection moulded plastic.

 

This may bring the perceived value and premium price tag of miniatures crashing down, which may have a negative impact on Games Worshop's revenue. I imagine that would at least partly be mitigated by the removal of significant production costs - plus potentially opening up new markets previously prohibited by the prices. I also think people would still pay a premium for their designs regardless of production method if they maintain the quality, but this could mean a huge change in business model for them, and they'll need to plan for it carefully.

[Cryptix]

We've been through this before. It will be a very long time until 3D printers catch up to the normal process. I quite literraly just use the 3D printer at my work for Rhinos. One of the simplest of pieces, the back pipes, takes ~5 hours to print. Trust me, Games Workshop is fine.

[The Unseen]

Less than 10 years isn't a very long time in my book, and if it isn't here by then I'll be incredibly suprised.

 

If nothing else, recasters will be even more common.

[Corswain]

I think it could get very difficult for GW. As The Unseen says, recasters are going to be everywhere which will, ironically, drive GW's prices higher.

 

I think we're still some time away from having printed minis of a quality and durability to be if concern to GW but it will eventually happen.

 

It's going to come down to consumer passion and loyalty. Not an easy thing to survive on. GW has been making some great strides forward in this regard recently so let's hope they continue.

[m0nolith]

The reality is that the free market in general (and by that extent, western capitalism that we live in) has a very hard time coming to terms with intellectual property and control of what are essential ideas and art and information, so whatever problems GW is going to have in the future are going to pale in comparison the the rest of the industrial and entertainment sectors until they figure out a way, be it commercially, legally, politically, technologically... or dont.

 

But as others have said, this is still a good way off. The tech isnt there yet and the belief that 3d printing technology will increase exponentially are being far too optimistic and being biased by listening only to the proponents, dismissing the opponents as knuckle dragging stubborn fools who are stifling innovation, but the reality is somewhere in between.

 

Yes, this will come and yes, it will be incredible, but not any time soon.

 

Until then;

 

[JeffTibbetts]

I've heard, and I believe it to be true, that GW has researched 3D printing extremely thoroughly and even invested a lot to improve the technology. They, of course, use it to prototype all their miniatures and the quality is good enough to hand them to the 'Eavy Metal team. If you zoom in on their models you can clearly see the 'stair-stepping' on curved edges. 

 

I'm certain they have a fairly clear and accurate idea of when the quality/cost ratio will make things difficult for them and they're planning for a transition of sorts. Printing your own entire army at high quality would be cost-prohibitive in all kinds of ways, and frankly it would take a really long time. I mean, unless there's a paradigm shift in the way the process itself works, I understand it wouldn't EVER be very fast. 

 

At any rate, I think they're probably way ahead of us consumers on the topic. I'm 100% sure they're not blissfully unaware as they've mentioned it in quarterly reports before. 

[m0nolith]

Its not that you cant create extremely detailed models right now. Its just that when can we say it will be cost effective enough to the point that a regular consumer can buy one and create a model of the same quality that is sold by GW, that's whats still a ways off.

[Corswain]

I've heard, and I believe it to be true, that GW has researched 3D printing extremely thoroughly and even invested a lot to improve the technology. They, of course, use it to prototype all their miniatures and the quality is good enough to hand them to the 'Eavy Metal team. If you zoom in on their models you can clearly see the 'stair-stepping' on curved edges.

 

I'm certain they have a fairly clear and accurate idea of when the quality/cost ratio will make things difficult for them and they're planning for a transition of sorts. Printing your own entire army at high quality would be cost-prohibitive in all kinds of ways, and frankly it would take a really long time. I mean, unless there's a paradigm shift in the way the process itself works, I understand it wouldn't EVER be very fast.

 

At any rate, I think they're probably way ahead of us consumers on the topic. I'm 100% sure they're not blissfully unaware as they've mentioned it in quarterly reports before.

 

Absolutely.

 

Even fairly average quality printing is probably a cost efficient way for them to prototype things.

Their concern will be (as it always has been) recasters and the theft of their IP and business and as m0nolith points out, that will be dificult to police/manage.

 

Interesting times ahead but nothing GW probably haven't been thinking about for years.

[Isolia]

There's also the issue of the polymers used in 3d printers , there's not a zillion materials you can both prepare in bulk to provide for the general public that also ensure a smooth finish, a certain ductility, hardness, resistance to some.of the solvents used in glues while swelling or "melting" in contact with others. Specialty plastic polymers are fairly expensive when compared to some resins and low-grade plastics that are ubiquitous in our everyday life.

 

The 3d printing process is not very precise, due to the process itself, although it's getting better, but there again with certain polymers only. To have micron precision while being affordable is a long way still. It exists in some labs, but it's not viable economically.

[totgeboren]

3D-home printing of smooth surfaces, especially organic-looking ones do not mix, and will probably not mix for a long time. Especially if you take into account just how much a high-quality 3D printer costs.

 

As it is now, when you get the hang of it, sculpting by hand is probably faster and looks better than 3D printing if you have to make the file yourself, and especially if you only need one model.

If you can buy the file and then try to print out say 20 of that model you will need to be patient to the verge of reaching a transcendental state.

 

But who knows what the future hold? The technology is still really in its infancy for home use, a bit like the old brick cellphones of the 80's.

Give it 20 years and we might have really useful 'smartprinters', who are to 3D printers today what smartphones are to the cellphones of the 80's.

[paulJam]

With nothing scientific to base this on, only seeing technology unfold and faffing round with 3d printers... I reckon it's coming a lot soon than people anticipate. As in 5 or 10 years.

 

Yes the quality is current lower (than other manufacturing techniques) NOW, Yes it takes a long time to get a result (but you definite can) NOW but looking at tech in general that changes very quickly when there is (commercial) demand (and dollars to make)... ie phones.

Manufacturing has got to be a low profit venture already and 3d is only going to amplify that.

Cameras and print photos come to mind (as a now obsolete industry). Random.

 

Wont be long before a replicator (trek not brand) is as common as a microwave (recall a time when they were rare) and kids wont remember when you actually had to go to a shop to buy... a cup or fork or whatever (sans ink or consumable part perhaps).

 

Not trying to get future nostalgic but i honestly don't see this not happening very quickly. The main variable is the medium perhaps not the if/when.

[LutherMax]

Yes this issue is still some way off becoming a problem for GW, possibly so far off that wargaming itself will have changed beyond recognition!

 

EDIT: Or paulJam may be correct and quality and speed may improve faster than we expect.

 

From the article:

 

Games Workshop might not have much to worry about for now, since 3D printing is still far from being a household utility. While Thier has both access to a 3D printer and the time and patience to draft his own minis, it's still easier to go to a hobby store and secure pieces the old-fashioned way. But Games Workshop is protecting itself from a future where pirating miniatures may be just as easy as pirating music—a more reasonable fear than you might think.

As Jeff pointed out, they're already planning for it.

 

What interests me more than the piracy issue though (which is the most obvious issue and has already been discussed at length) is the way in which the technology may affect how Games Workshop produce and sell their models, and how we buy them.

 

Another quote from the article:

 

Croft speculates that, eventually, major game companies will be forced to use the same business structure he does: offering digital files ready for a 3D printer at an abbreviated price point. In a story as old as time, advances in technology have removed some of the justifiable value of these specific products; from the cotton gin to the iPod, streamlined mechanical factors have consistently wreaked havoc on out-of-date manufacturing.

[Duymon]

3d printed products will be much more common in 10 years, but not actual 3d printers imho.

 

Yes I'm sure 3d printers will be able to output the same product relatively fast in the future but the cost of entry to getting a 3d printer and all is probably just as high or higher than just buying the miniatures.

 

"I'm going to buy this 10K High rez 3d printer so that I never have to buy $50 boxes of toy soldiers again" said very few people ever?

[paulJam]

Duymon but im suggesting you wont have a printer just for printing minis, it would just be a household 'thing'. Like you dont have a smart phone so you can view digital codex.

Anyway all guesswork and we'll see in 5 years :)

[LutherMax]

Yeah, if 3D printers become fast enough and have good enough quality output (and are cost-effective enough to run), they will be super useful for all kinds of things.

[Space Truckin]

GW's plan in  5-10 years will be their own 3d Printer they sell to you.

 

Imagine -   "The Games Workshop 3d printer"  that you set up at home that would only print Games Workshop Designed Models using Games Workshop Software ( which we all complain about on this forum).   And you guessed it - it only prints using Games Workshop plastic, which you can only buy direct from GW at a premium price.

[Duymon]

I could be totally wrong but I just don't think it'll be mainstream.

 

I work in IT. I fix multitudes of PEBKAC issues all day and I don't have enough faith in humanity to believe they'll magically be able to 3d print stuff themselves to the point that 3d printers become a household appliance. 

 

I think they'll be extremely popular for hobbyists but that's just about it.

[LutherMax]

You might be right.

 

However they may make producing miniatures on a mass scale cheap enough to open the market up to a lot of competitors who are currently prohibited by the investment required to injection mould.

[Canadian_F_H]

Thinking everyone will make their own stuff with a 3 printer at home is crazy...

 

Most people don't even cook their own food anymore... you can make your own mugs and plates in a kiln if you want now, but do you?

 

Even if 3d printing becomes a huge manufacturing component, it will be large expensive commercial grade versions churning out product for GW, th at are economically viable, not individual ones at your respectime houses.

 

Welding is an amazingly economical and powerful tool, and you could be set up to weld anything at your own home, but why would you? Ok I totally will some day, but I like building things, I'm good at it and working for myself sounds great, but I live in an aera with high demand for that sort of thing. So bad example? Yes I'm a bad example of a lot of things, lol

[Bryan Blaire]

=][=

Folks, we aren't tech site, so all the discussions of whether this is possible, time frame of possibility, where it would be possible, etc., are all not topics for discussion here.

If this is to be discussed, it needs to be within the remit of the board: constructive discussion of the Warhammer 40K hobby focused on the Armies of Humanity and those factions otherwise covered.

=][=

[Subtle Discord]

*Subtle's eye begins to twitch*

 

This will not be a 3D printed offering. The tech just isn't at that level yet. Cost, speed, quality, and durability, it's just not there. Trust me. It's very expensive (and rather slow) to print the kind of quality people would want, and even then the prints are rather fragile.

 

*Wipes a bit of blood away from his nose*

 

It's one thing to wonder if 3D printing could be the case, so don't get me wrong, or anyone take offence. I get it. But, I've just seen quite a few absolute conjecture and wild speculation comments that I can say completely just isn't based in reality. Not really here at B&C, mind you, but this is one of the few places I'll take the time to try and be the voice of reason.

 

*Gnashes a hole in his lip*

 

3D printing is indeed a manufacturing revolution in the making, and is going to be a game-changer in many ways as the technology finally matures (it's been around for decades) into something with high enough quality at a low enough price point. But as it stands now, it is not a final manufacturing solution on a scale that GW would need to fill. GW is already highly capable at their current production methods that are very cost effective, they'll flex those muscles, I'm all but certain.

[appiah4]

The demand for out of print scouts will be through the roof..

 

Maybe we'll get squats?..

 

And this is a certain sign that if you have GW stock you should sell it, because if they can print to order figures of their usual quality that means in 5 years we will be able to pirate and print miniature models in our homes.

[Halandaar]

And this is a certain sign that if you have GW stock you should sell it, because if they can print to order figures of their usual quality that means in 5 years we will be able to pirate and print miniature models in our homes.

 

In what world is GW popping their existing Sly Marbo mold into their existing production line to make one model a revolution that heralds the arrival of print-at-home technology?

[appiah4]

 

And this is a certain sign that if you have GW stock you should sell it, because if they can print to order figures of their usual quality that means in 5 years we will be able to pirate and print miniature models in our homes.

 

In what world is GW popping their existing Sly Marbo mold into their existing production line to make one model a revolution that heralds the arrival of print-at-home technology?

 

 

If you believe GW will actually change their whole production line and bother with moving moulds around to inject 5 Sly Marbo figures to order, I wish them good luck with that and advise you to actually take a look at the costs of doing such.

 

The only possible way such a venture can work is 3D printing, and if they can confidently 3D print a Sly Marbo at an industrial grade printer today, that means you can print one at your home in 5 years with a home use 3D printer.

 

The logic is simple, and a lot of people will come around to reject it I'm sure.  But we'll see who will have the last laugh in five years.

[Halandaar]

If you believe GW will actually change their whole production line and bother with moving moulds around to inject 5 Sly Marbo figures to order, I wish them good luck with that and advise you to actually take a look at the costs of doing such.

 

The only possible way such a venture can work is 3D printing, and if they can confidently 3D print a Sly Marbo at an industrial grade printer today, that means you can print one at your home in 5 years with a home use 3D printer.

 

The logic is simple, and a lot of people will come around to reject it I'm sure.  But we'll see who will have the last laugh in five years.

 

You are making assumptions about the scheme here, namely that the models will be produced at the price point they were before (or equivalent to current products), and that the production/shipping time for each miniature is going to be relatively quick. Yes, the idea of somebody spending their day switching molds around to create one model at a time to send out to one customer is nonsense and horribly impractical/cost inefficient. Almost like I considered this already....

 

You'd think that either the price per model is going to be pretty high, or that they'll only cast them if they receive a minimum number of orders (say 10) so that it's cost effective for them.

 

It's nice that they are potentially offering the chance to get currently OOP models, but as a business you have to balance the cost of doing so.

 

So to counter that, either the price per unit is going to be higher than what we'd pay now, or they'll be done in runs and have an estimated delivery time of a month or something like that. I.e., GW collects up all orders over a 3 week period, produces ordered models all together and then dispatches. Adjust length of time to suit demand/reality.

 

Your assertion that "if industry can do it now, domestic can in 5 years" isn't what I'm disputing, you're more than likely right. What I am disputing, is whether GW would be using this method at all when it has existing methods of production. It seems like it would be a lot of extra work to take old models and convert them from physical molds to digital sculpts ready for 3D printing, not to mention the sizable investment in the 3D print technology anyway, for what is likely to be a relatively modest demand.

 

If it was so easy to convert older molds to digital files, would we not be seeing classic models reproduced on fancy CAD-sprues in plastic?