Heavy Weapons MathHammer

[jbaeza94]

Very useful guide jbaeza94. For the sake of completeness could you please add the plasma storm battery to the list of weapons. It's profile is quite markedly different from a plasma cannon with D6 shots and damage values of 2 & 3. Many thanks in advance.

Sure. I'll add it in today.

[Teetengee]

 

Therefore, here is a tree for analyzing number of shots necessary:

1/6 chance of dead from 3 wounds in 1 additional shot

1/3 chance of dead from 2 wounds in 1 additional shot

1/2 chance of dead from 1 wound in 1 additional shot

1/6 chance of dropping from 3 to 1 wounds in 1 additional shot

1/6 chance of dropping from 3 to 2 wounds in 1 additional shot

1/6 chance of dropping from 2 to 1 wound in 1 additional shot

I understand this.

 

Therefore, if you have 1 wound left on the target, you have 1*(1/2)^1+2*(1/2)^2+3*(1/2)^3+...=2 shots on average to kill.

 

If you have 2 wound left on the target, you have (3*1/6+1*1/3)+(4*1/6+2*1/3)*1/2+(5*1/6+3*1/3)*(1/2)^2+...=8/3 or 2.667 shots on average to kill.

 

If you have 3 wounds left on the target, you have (1/6)*(11/3+3+1)+(1/2)*(1/6)*(14/3+4+2)+(1/2^2)*(1/6)*(17/3+5+3)+...=32/9 or 3.556 shots on average to kill.

 

 

I don't understand this. Can you just explain what each number stands for? Im just not sure where some of the numbers come from. I'm sure I'll understand it with a label.

 

 

I'm sure you followed my math. It seems to be over simplified, with a larger margin of error, but I have a feeling it's close. Let me know. Here's how I figured how many shots to kill.

1 damage weapons was just wounds/unsaved wounds. So a rhino vs assault cannon is

10/0.50 = 20 rounds of firing to kill.

D3 damage weapons, I did wounds/2 (d3 average)/ unsaved wounds. Rhino vs grav.

10/2/0.56=8.93, rounded up to 9. So 9 rounds of shooting.

D6 is the same thing but with 3.5 instead. Lascannon vs rhino

10/3.5/.28 =10.20, rounded up to 11.

 

My logic is this. I have a 10 wound model, if my weapon averages 2 damage per unsaved wound (d3), then it should take about 5 unsaved wounds kill it. If my weapon causes an unsaved wound .56 of the time, then that means I need to fire it 8.93 times to achieve 5 unsaved wounds. I can't fire .93 times, so its just get rounded up.

 

 

Like I said its not perfect, very Barney style. But I'm sure it's a pretty good approximation of how long it would take.

 

Edit: but hey, get me on the same page as you, and ill definitely update the whole thing.

So if you could:

Label your math problem, With what each thing stands for, and insert an actual example from above (grav vs rhino would be good, multiple damage vs multiple wound, and a .56 chance to wound.) You could do it here or message me. Thanks

 

 

 

 

Therefore, if you have 1 wound left on the target, you have [1 shot]*[(1/2)^1 chance of killing target in exactly 1 shot]+[2 shots]*[(1/2)^2 chance of killing target in exactly 2 shots, i.e. chance of failing first and succeeding second time]+[3 shots]*[(1/2)^3 chance of killing target in exactly 3 shots, i.e. chance of dealing 0 wounds exactly 2 times before the third shot kills]+...=2 shots on average to kill.

 

If you have 2 wound left on the target, you have ([3 shots]*[1/6 chance of dealing precisely 1 wound in 1 shot (with the extra 2 shots determined by the above value from the 1 wound left on target math)]+[1 shot]*[1/3 chance of killing the target outright in 1 shot])+([4 shots]*[1/6 chance of dealing 1 wound to a 2 wound target]+[2 shots]*[1/3 chance of killing a 2 wound target immediately])*[1/2 chance of dealing 0 wounds on the first shot]+([5 shots]*[1/6 chance of exactly 1 wound]+[3 shots]*[1/3 chance of 2 wounds against 2 wound target])*[(1/2)^2 chance of dealing 0 wounds on the first 2 shots combined+...=8/3 or 2.667 shots on average to kill.

 

If you have 3 wounds left on the target, you have [(1/6) chance of dealing precisely 1, 2, or 3 wounds]*([11/3 shots, i.e. 1+ additional number of shots necessary to kill if that 1 only does 1 wound]+[3 shots, i.e. 1 + the additional number of shots necessary to kill if that 1 does exactly 2 wounds]+[1 shot])+[(1/2) chance of doing 0 wounds on the first shot]*[(1/6) chance of dealing precisely 1, 2, or 3 wounds]*([14/3 shots, i.e. 2+ the additional number of shots necessary to kill if the first 2 shots deal exactly 1 wound]+[4 shots, i.e. 2 + the number of shots necessary to kill the target if the first 2 deal precisely 2 wounds]+[2 shots])+[(1/2^2) chance of doing 0 wounds the first 2 shots]*[(1/6) 

 chance of dealing precisely 1, 2, or 3 wounds]

*([17/3 shots, i.e. 3 shots + the additional number of shots necessary to kill the target if the first 3 deal precisely 1 wound]+[5 shots, i.e. 3+the number of additional shots necessary to kill the target if the first 3 deal precisely 2 wounds] +[3 shots])+...=32/9 or 3.556 shots on average to kill.

 

Basically they are infinite series summations based on calculated the chances of each possible wound/not wound sequence of attacks.

 

Basically, the first series is calculated like this

1/2 chance of death from first shot*1 shot+1/4 chance of death from second shot (after failing first shot)*2 shots+1/8 chance of death from third shot (after failing first shot)* 3 shots=expected number of shots to drop from 1 to 0 wounds.

 

Second series is based on summing the chances of reducing from 2 to 1 wounds and then inputting the above value on top of those shots plus the chances of killing outright from 2 wounds.

 

Third series similarly takes the first two into account.

[Elios Harg]

You seem to have been crediting the plasma cannon (non-super charged) with getting 2 damage and the plasma cannon (super charged) as having 3 damage. Only the plasma storm battery gets that. Plasma cannons are only 1 and 2 damage, respectively. The plasma storm is slightly more powerful on top of having a higher potential ROF.

[dtse]

So someone lay it it for me. For my tactical squads what weapon should I be taking lol

[Teetengee]

So someone lay it it for me. For my tactical squads what weapon should I be taking lol

What's your target?

[Interrogator Stobz]

http://www.bolterandchainsword.com/topic/334475-8th-edition-tactical-squad-loadouts/?p=4777298

 

Another good perspective.

[Berzul]

So someone lay it it for me. For my tactical squads what weapon should I be taking lol

If you have no idea what you will be facing, take none on the tacticals, and grab a couple of devs squads with one of each weapon on each squad.

 

All around split fire for the win!

 

Or... go fluff over might, and just assemble whatever feels right.

[Interrogator Stobz]

Always Fluff over Might. And the beauty of 8th is everything 'can' hurt everything.

[dtse]

So how does a grav cannon do overall against all targets. It seems versatile in paper

[Interrogator Stobz]

It really does look good on paper. You can't beat the God-Hammer and Plasma Cannon for looks though (despite some reservations I have about the PC I'll still be taking heaps).

[Berzul]

It really does look good on paper. You can't beat the God-Hammer and Plasma Cannon for looks though (despite some reservations I have about the PC I'll still be taking heaps).

Im actually planning to center my greenwing lists around two tac squads packing plasma guns, cannons and combis. Full plasma power!! Just for the flavour.

[Elios Harg]

 

It really does look good on paper. You can't beat the God-Hammer and Plasma Cannon for looks though (despite some reservations I have about the PC I'll still be taking heaps).

Im actually planning to center my greenwing lists around two tac squads packing plasma guns, cannons and combis. Full plasma power!! Just for the flavour.

I am starting to come around to the idea of plasma cannons in tactical squads simply because missile launchers are pretty even with them and lascannons and multimelta are not as versatile. Grace cannons are probably more effective thanks to non-random ROF, but I don't have any models with them and they are pricey pointswise.

 

Combi-plasma, plasma gun and plasma cannon can be potent just be careful with supercharging. The best part about supercharging on tactical, though, is that it is only a bit riskier than last edition (no save), but still only a 1 wound model, and more powerful to boot.

[Berzul]

 

 

It really does look good on paper. You can't beat the God-Hammer and Plasma Cannon for looks though (despite some reservations I have about the PC I'll still be taking heaps).

Im actually planning to center my greenwing lists around two tac squads packing plasma guns, cannons and combis. Full plasma power!! Just for the flavour.

I am starting to come around to the idea of plasma cannons in tactical squads simply because missile launchers are pretty even with them and lascannons and multimelta are not as versatile. Grace cannons are probably more effective thanks to non-random ROF, but I don't have any models with them and they are pricey pointswise.

 

Combi-plasma, plasma gun and plasma cannon can be potent just be careful with supercharging. The best part about supercharging on tactical, though, is that it is only a bit riskier than last edition (no save), but still only a 1 wound model, and more powerful to boot.

You can always have a Company Master with the squads, to give them a rerroll on those supercharged plasma weapons.

 

Reduced the chance of killing yourself by quite a lot.

 

Thats how I plan to play my main Greenwing Force. Lots of plasma and rites of battle, with specialists to fit the particulars of each given situation.