WPP comparison: Stalker - Plasma

[spacewatch]

I recently came across an interesting 3++ article about WPP (wounds per point) that made me wonder what is cost effectivenes of Stalker Bolter compared to cost effectivenes of Plasmagun. Today I finally got time to do the comparison. Since I also wanted to know is there a reason to upgrade my Plasma unit to Hellblaster unit I calculated WPP also for Plasma Incinerator.

 

WPP = Wounds Per Point = (number of shots x prob. to hit x prob. to wound x prob. to un-save)  /  (model cost + weapon cost)

Stalker Vet WPP (hellfire) = 2 x 4/6 x 5/6 x 5/6 (T4Sv6) / (<vet cost> + <stalker cost>) ~ 0,0386

Stalker is heavy 2 so results are calculated both when not moving and moving (not moving/moving).

S = shots

bold = best WPP (long range, rapid fire range)

 

Stalker vs. Plasmagun (no supercharge)

 

case a: infantry T4W1Sv2/3/6

gun/ammo S WPP/Sv2 WPP/Sv3 WPP/Sv6

SIA/Hell 2 0,0081/0,0060 0,0161/0,0121 0,0403/0,0302

SIA/Krak 2 0,0097/0,0072 0,0145/0,0109 0,0290/0,0217

SIA/Veng 2 0,0145/0,0109 0,0193/0,0145 0,0290/0,0217

 

plasma   1 0,0093/0,0093 0,0116/0,0116 0,0139/0,0139

plasma   2 0,0185/0,0185 0,0231/0,0231 0,0278/0,0278 (rapid fire)

 

Stalker(SIA) beats (=causes more wounds per point) plasma when shooting long range despite Stalker unit moving before shooting.

 

case b: infantry T5W1Sv2/3/6

gun/ammo S WPP/Sv2 WPP/Sv3 WPP/Sv6

SIA/Hell 2 0,0081/0,0060 0,0161/0,0121 0,0403/0,0302

SIA/Krak 2 0,0064/0,0048 0,0097/0,0072 0,0193/0,0145

SIA/Veng 2 0,0097/0,0072 0,0129/0,0097 0,0193/0,0145

 

plasma   1 0,0093/0,0093 0,0116/0,0116 0,0139/0,0139

plasma   2 0,0185/0,0185 0,0231/0,0231 0,0278/0,0278 (rapid fire)

 

Stalker(SIA) still beats plasma except when moving and shooting Sv2 (long range). /edit/

 

case c: Vehicle/monster T7W*Sv2/3/6

gun/ammo S WPP/Sv2 WPP/Sv3 WPP/Sv4 <--

SIA/Hell

SIA/Krak 2 0,0064/0,0048 0,0097/0,0072 0,0129/0,0097

SIA/Veng 2 0,0097/0,0072 0,0129/0,0097 0,0161/0,0121

 

plasma   1 0,0069/0,0069 0,0087/0,0087 0,0104/0,0078

plasma   2 0,0139/0,0139 0,0174/0,0174 0,0208/0,0208 (rapid fire)

 

I'm surprised, Stalker is still "better" at long range (and clearly much worse at short range). So does this mean that transport+plasma or relic+plasma or plasma VVet drop is best tactic to use plasma (most effective and most point efficient too), right?

 

What about long range plasma shooting with Hellblaster Plasma Incinerators?

 

case a   1 0,0112/0,0112 0,0135/0,0135 0,0135/0,0135

case a   2 0,0224/0,0224 0,0269/0,0269 0,0269/0,0269 (rapid fire)

 

This is the place where I start to doubt my calculations. Stalker+SIA still "better" at long range if unit doesn't move. (Hellblaster is cheaper but Plasma Incinerator is rather expensive compared to Stalker).

 

case b   1 0,0112/0,0112 0,0135/0,0135 0,0135/0,0135

case b   2 0,0224/0,0224 0,0269/0,0269 0,0269/0,0269 (rapid fire)

 

Stalker(SIA) is as good as Incinerator up to MEQ at long range.

 

case c   1 0,0084/0,0084 0,0101/0,0101 0,0101/0,0101

case c   2 0,0168/0,0168 0,0202/0,0202 0,0202/0,0202 (rapid fire)

 

Now this is interesting... Stalker+Vengeance is slightly more point efficient than Plasma Incinerator at long range ...but of course Plasma Incinerator is more effective and vaporises that Vehicle or Monster faster due to better AP /note1/.

 

My conclusions:

- Love SIA. Stalker+Hellfire ammo is good all-around combination when long range shooting infantry up to MEQ and Vengeance ammo is surprisingly good combination when long range shooting vehicles up to T7Sv4.

- Stalker+Hellfire WPP is 2,9 times higher than Plasma WPP against light infantry it's no point to shoot blobs with plasma, aim vehicles instead.

- Storm Shield makes high AP weapon's WPP even worse. It's good SS's are now cheap for us too.

- Plasma is not worse than Stalker+SIA, not saying that but (if my calculations are right) there are situations where Hellfire of Vengeance is more point efficient way to do what needs to be done /note2/.

- Got to test next three Vet squads (x5 Stalker + x2 SS) with cheap Captain as a moving gunline. Definitely need more Negotiator Rifles 

 

Does this make any sense? Meaning is WPP good measure/criteria when designing army list or is it just pure effectiveness that matters? Comments?

 

EDIT: Noticed that I had wrong point cost for Stalker. Updated values make Stalker better (point efficient) against T4-5, 7 in every case (long range shooting) except when moving and shooting T5Sv2.

 

------

Note 1. WPP is not the same as weapon effectiveness.

Note 2. This comparison doesn't take into account multiple wound models, models having SS and D2+ damage (I'm working on better math model).

Note 3. If somebody wonders what is FC's WPP, I can say it is 'quite' good

Edited January 1, 2018 by spacewatch

[spacewatch]

I recently came across an interesting 3++ article about WPP (wounds per point) that made me wonder what is cost effectivenes of Stalker Bolter compared to cost effectivenes of Plasmagun. Today I finally got time to do the comparison. Since I also wanted to know is there a reason to upgrade my Plasma unit to Hellblaster unit I calculated WPP also for Plasma Incinerator.

 

WPP = Wounds Per Point = (number of shots x prob. to hit x prob. to wound x prob. to un-save)  /  (model cost + weapon cost)

Stalker Vet WPP (hellfire) = 2 x 4/6 x 5/6 x 5/6 (T4Sv6) / (<vet cost> + <stalker cost>) ~ 0,0386

Stalker is heavy 2 so results are calculated both when not moving and moving (not moving/moving).

S = shots

bold = best WPP (<12/15" or >12/15")

 

Stalker vs. Plasmagun (no supercharge)

 

case a: infantry T4W1Sv2/3/6

gun/ammo S WPP/Sv2 WPP/Sv3 WPP/Sv6

SIA/Hell 2 0,0077/0,0058 0,0154/0,0116 0,0386/0,0289

SIA/Krak 2 0,0093/0,0069 0,0139/0,0104 0,0278/0,0208

SIA/Veng 2 0,0139/0,0104 0,0185/0,0139 0,0278/0,0208

 

plasma   1 0,0093/0,0093 0,0116/0,0116 0,0139/0,0139

plasma   2 0,0185/0,0185 0,0231/0,0231 0,0278/0,0278 (rapid fire)

 

Stalker(SIA) beats (=causes more wounds per point) plasma when shooting over 12" range despite Stalker unit moving before shooting.

 

case b: infantry T5W1Sv2/3/6

gun/ammo S WPP/Sv2 WPP/Sv3 WPP/Sv6

SIA/Hell 2 0,0077/0,0058 0,0154/0,0116 0,0386/0,0289

SIA/Krak 2 0,0062/0,0046 0,0093/0,0069 0,0185/0,0139

SIA/Veng 2 0,0093/0,0069 0,0123/0,0093 0,0185/0,0139

 

plasma   1 0,0093/0,0093 0,0116/0,0116 0,0139/0,0139

plasma   2 0,0185/0,0185 0,0231/0,0231 0,0278/0,0278 (rapid fire)

 

Stalker(SIA) still beats plasma up to Sv3 even when moving and is as good or better than plasma when not moving.

 

case c: Vehicle/monster T7W*Sv2/3/6

gun/ammo S WPP/Sv2 WPP/Sv3 WPP/Sv4 <--

SIA/Hell

SIA/Krak 2 0,0062/0,0046 0,0093/0,0069 0,0123/0,0093

SIA/Veng 2 0,0093/0,0069 0,0123/0,0093 0,0154/0,0116

 

plasma   1 0,0069/0,0069 0,0087/0,0087 0,0104/0,0078

plasma   2 0,0139/0,0139 0,0174/0,0174 0,0208/0,0208 (rapid fire)

 

I'm surprised, Stalker is still "better" at long range (and clearly much worse at short range). So does this mean that transport+plasma or relic+plasma or plasma VVet drop is best tactic to use plasma (most effective and most point efficient too), right?

 

What about long range plasma shooting with Hellblaster Plasma Incinerators?

 

case a   1 0,0112/0,0112 0,0135/0,0135 0,0135/0,0135

case a   2 0,0224/0,0224 0,0269/0,0269 0,0269/0,0269 (rapid fire)

 

This is the place where I start to doubt my calculations. Stalker+SIA still "better" at long range (15"-24/30") if unit doesn't move. (Hellblaster is cheaper but Plasma Incinerator is rather expensive compared to Stalker).

 

case b   1 0,0112/0,0112 0,0135/0,0135 0,0135/0,0135

case b   2 0,0224/0,0224 0,0269/0,0269 0,0269/0,0269 (rapid fire)

 

Stalker(SIA) is as good as Incinerator up to MEQ at long range.

 

case c   1 0,0084/0,0084 0,0101/0,0101 0,0101/0,0101

case c   2 0,0168/0,0168 0,0202/0,0202 0,0202/0,0202 (rapid fire)

 

Now this is interesting... Stalker+Vengeance is slightly more point efficient than Plasma Incinerator at long range ...but of course Plasma Incinerator is more effective and vaporises that Vehicle or Monster faster due to better AP /note1/.

 

My conclusions:

- Love SIA. Stalker+Hellfire ammo is good all-around combination when long range shooting infantry up to MEQ and Vengeance ammo is surprisingly good combination when long range shooting vehicles up to T7Sv4.

- Stalker+Hellfire WPP is 2,9 times higher than Plasma WPP against light infantry it's no point to shoot blobs with plasma, aim vehicles instead.

- Storm Shield makes high AP weapon's WPP even worse. It's good SS's are now cheap for us too.

- Plasma is not worse than Stalker+SIA, not saying that but (if my calculations are right) there are situations where Stalker+Hellfire of Vengeance is more point efficient way to do what needs to be done /note2/.

- Got to test next three Vet squads (x5 Stalker + x2 SS) with cheap Captain as a moving gunline.

  => just pre-ordered two sets of Negotiator Rifles from Anvil 

 

Does this make any sense? Is WPP good measure/criteria when designing army list or is it just pure effectiveness that matters? Comments?

 

------

Note 1. WPP is not the same as weapon effectiveness.

Note 2. This comparison doesn't take into account multiple wound models, models having SS and D2+ damage (I'm working on better math model).

Note 3. If somebody wonders what is FC's WPP, I can say it is 'quite' good  

Edited December 16, 2017 by spacewatch

[Moostick]

This is useful, but it doesn't take into account how things may play out. I also think it would've been better to just compare regular bolter + SIA with plasma as they are the same type of Rapid Fire 1 weapon.

 

A big thing about matches is killing your opponent's unit before they can retaliate, especially in close quarters (generally anything <20"). In the best case scenario, it's one on one.

 

If you fail to wipe or cripple your opponent on your turn, there's a high chance they will wipe or cripple your unit on theirs. In such a case, none of this matters if we flopped on our chance and the model died before it could make its points back.

 

Of course, there's also getting assaulted or other surrounding enemy units to take into account, but that gets complicated to calculate and I will leave that out. Essentially, look at a situation where you have one chance to kill your opponent. If you succeed, you can continue to fire another volley. Fail, and you get wiped. A Plasma gun has a much higher chance of succeeding on that one turn than a bolter + SIA does in more situations, as its effective against a larger group of potential opponents.

[spacewatch]

Thank you for your response and guidance! Below are WPP's for Boltgun+SIA and some comments/speculation.

 

Boltgun vs. Plasmagun (no supercharge)

 

case a: infantry T4W1Sv2/3/6

gun/ammo S WPP/Sv2 WPP/Sv3 WPP/Sv6

SIA/Hell 1 0,0049 0,0097 0,0244

SIA/Krak 1 0,0058 0,0088 0,0175

SIA/Veng 1 0,0088 0,0117 0,0175

plasma   1 0,0093 0,0116 0,0139

 

SIA/Hell 2 0,0097 0,0195 0,0478 (rapid fire)

SIA/Krak 2 0,0117 0,0175 0,0351 (rapid fire, note different range)

SIA/Veng 2 0,0175 0,0234 0,0351 (rapid fire, note different range)

plasma   2 0,0185 0,0231 0,0278 (rapid fire)

 

case b: infantry T5W1Sv2/3/6

gun/ammo S WPP/Sv2 WPP/Sv3 WPP/Sv6

SIA/Hell 1 0,0049 0,0097 0,0244

SIA/Krak 1 0,0039 0,0058 0,0117

SIA/Veng 1 0,0058 0,0078 0,0117

plasma   1 0,0093 0,0116 0,0139

 

SIA/Hell 2 0,0097 0,0195 0,0478 (rapid fire)

SIA/Krak 2 0,0078 0,0117 0,0234 (rapid fire, note different range)

SIA/Veng 2 0,0117 0,0156 0,0234 (rapid fire, note different range)

plasma   2 0,0185 0,0231 0,0278 (rapid fire)

 

case c: vehicle/moster T7W*Sv2/3/6

gun/ammo S WPP/Sv2 WPP/Sv3 WPP/Sv4 <--

SIA/Hell

SIA/Krak 1 0,0039 0,0058 0,0078

SIA/Veng 1 0,0058 0,0078 0,0097

plasma   1 0,0069 0,0087 0,0104

 

SIA/Hell

SIA/Krak 2 0,0078 0,0117 0,0156 (rapid fire, note different range)

SIA/Veng 2 0,0117 0,0156 0,0195 (rapid fire, note different range)

plasma   2 0,0139 0,0174 0,0208 (rapid fire)

 

In short, Boltgun+SIA works well (is more cost efficient) against T4 models (ok, Sv2 plasma is better but difference is just 5%) but T5+ or better plasma gets better against tougher targets and of course plasma rocks when shooting T7 vehicles (SIA Vengeance is not bad when shooting light vehicles).

 

My conclusion of all this is that Stalker makes SIA shine (due to extra shot) but only if your playstyle is not "up in your enemy's face all the time". There's no point to design army based on WPP if you're going to just run, shoot and die. WPP is also about durability so cost efficiency over time. Stalker Boltgun's point is that it's better range gives possibility to select cost efficient targets and it gives time to shoot tougher and not so cost efficient targets multiple times. I know alpha strike is crucial but I'd like to think that after that (especially when playing against horde) selecting the cheapest weapon able to make the kill gives you edge over time. This is also what makes SS so annoying; enemy's better weapons won't work as cost efficiently as planned.

 

I don't know if this is good example to illustrate what is difference between WPP (cost efficiency) and weapon effectiveness but let's speculate what does it take to destroy T7W10Sv4 vehicle in two rounds? Theorically you need total of 54 Vengeance, 30 Plasma or 12 supercharged plasma shots to make it explode. When shooting long range this means 336 pts Stalker, 480 pts Plasma or 192 pts supercharged Plasma unit shooting two rounds. Of course supercharged plasma is the clear winner here and this is why Hellblasters are so effective (btw, if I ever decide to buy Hellblasters I'll give them Heavy plasma incinerators). On the other hand nobody would buy 15 Plasma Vets so those shots are most likely fired at rapid fire range which improves cost efficiency and makes plasma better than Stalker+Vengeance. However 336 pts is only 14 Stalker models and in practice you buy three squads. Think what this gun line is capable to do: shoot light vehicles, easily slaughter single characters (three unit cross-fire is nasty) and wipe 25 model blobs in two turns. Add cheap Captain and it's even more effective and the whole package costs what, roughly 400 pts.

 

In summary I'd like to think that Stalker units give me good volume of fire, versatility in terms of targets and positioning and on top of that good cost efficiency. I know from experience that this works against horde but otherwise that's just theory and that's why I'm recruiting two more Stalker squads so that can playtest everything in practice. And finally, I see your (Moostick) point too and you're right; the shorter the range the better general purpose weapon plasma becomes. Make that combi-plasma and you get good long range infantry shooting capability in addition to effective short range character, vehicle, ...whatever shooting capability /note 1/.

 

EDIT: wording, note 1

Note 1. Hmm... looks like combi-plasma (shooting both profiles) WPP is roughly the same or better (than Boltgun or Plasma) in every case except when targeting 4/5Sv6 models (horde). So if points permit couple of combi-plasmas is good investment to make Boltgun team more efficient and cost effective and of course more versatile against MEQ/Bikes/similar.

Edited December 17, 2017 by spacewatch