Mathcrons

[Tyriks]

So I was wondering how effective the Enhanced Reanimation Protocol stratagem really is.  It seems solid but I decided to work out the probability of it really making a difference.  To do so I just worked out the success rate of Reanimation Protocols with every possible modifier, both with and without the ERP reroll.  Keep in mind this is all just math, none of it is guaranteed, so ultimately it comes down to your specific situation if it will be worth it.  I'm focusing on a squad of 20 warriors in which 19 have died because the more models we have to work with the more real our numbers will be.  But you can plug the % success rate into any number of dead models and see how many is reasonable to expect. Hopefully this helps you guys in considering whether or not to use some of our various options.  Also not I'm not including a Resurrection Orb on it's own because it's the same as the Ghost Ark.  I'm including my formulas just in case I made a mistake.  If I missed any modifiers you would like added let me know and I can include it.  I'm rounding everything to 2 decimal points.

 

With Warriors with no enhancements - RP succeeds on a 5+, so 1/3 or 33.33% success rate.  Of our 19 dead Warriors, 6.33 return.

 

Cryptek - 4+ succeeds, 50% rate. 9.5 return.

 

Ghost Ark - 5+ with a second roll also at 5+.  There's a 33% chance for each roll, or a 55.56% chance overall for each model to return ((1/3)+(2/3)(1/3), with 2/3 being those that fail the first roll). 10.56 Warriors return.

 

Cryptek + Ghost Ark - 4+ with a second roll at 4+.  50% chance for each roll or 75% chance overall (.5+.5(.5)).  14.25 Warriors return.  

 

Warriors with ERP - 5+, reroll 1s.  That gives us 38.89%, or 7.39 Warriors ((1/3)+(1/6)(1/3)).  A difference of about 1 model.

 

Cryptek + ERP - 4+, rerolling 1s. 58.33% chance per model (.5+.5(1/6)), or 11.08 Warriors.  A difference of about 1.5 models.

 

Ghost Ark + ERP - These formulas were tough to come up with so if I made any mistakes I bet it's one  of these two.  This is 5+ rerolling 1s and any failures roll again, 5+ rerolling 1s.  I came up with 62.1% chance per model to return ((1/3)+(1/6)(1/3) + (.61(1/3)+(1/6)(1/3)).  That gives us 11.8 Warriors, a difference of about 1.25 models.  The .61 in the formula represents the failed rolls from the first try.

 

Cryptek + Ghost Ark + ERP - Roll twice, 4+ rerolling 1s.  82.64%, or 15.7 Warriors return.  A little less than 1.25 difference.  (.5+.5(1/6)) + .4167(.5+.5(1/6))  .4167 is the failure rate of the first roll.  

 

So, in a statistically perfect situation you will be getting about one more model per use of ERP, which is not a great benefit for 2cp.  Then again we have basically nothing else to spend them on so maybe it's not such a waste...  Obviously though this is just math so what you actually roll will be different; in situations where you really need to get some bodies back it can make a difference for sure.  

[NTaW]

Brutal. I had a feeling it was pretty useless, but your math seems to point out that it is really quite useless outside of niche scenarios where the dice return results outside of the average expectancy. 

 

I find the only stratagem I'm using these days is the auto-pass morale option since I nearly always have a Cryptek or resurrection orb nearby (if only I had some Ghost Arks!) to assist with Reanimation Protocol rolls.

[Tyriks]

Yeah, the auto pass went almost completely overlooked until I started playing Necrons more, but it makes a big difference sometimes for us! The canoptek reanimation protocol has uses but I need to get more wraiths to see real mileage out of it.

[Tyriks]

Unrelated to RP but still relevant to Necron math hammer: I've been comparing Tesla and Gauss across units.  Playing a lot of low armor enemies, I have always packed along some Tesla and found it amazing my first few games (which I think skewed my mindset towards over-including it subsequently) but growing less effective every game.  So, I didn't write down my results this time, but Tesla is almost never better.  Even against Guard or Orks, where it seemed like the AP is not as big a hit, it's only better for things like Immortals out of Rapid Fire range but still in range.  The only situations in which it really beat Gauss definitively were against targets that use invulnerable saves instead of armor saves, like Daemons or our own Wraiths.  This surprised me, and makes me wonder how hard the guns will be to pull off my Tomb Blades...

[NTaW]

:lol: well, that truly depends on how zealous you are with glue application and what type of glue you're using. Every vehicle I own gets magnets regardless of the current iteration of rules; too many editions invalidating choices for this guy. I've always liked having gauss on my Immortals because I found it more applicable all around. I face the occasional high model count army (Orks and Nids, though the horde depends on the list employed) but mostly face off against more elite armies. Real dead chaff, since even a chance at a 5/6+ can mean models staying on the table, and AP-2 is a savoury addition against anything else. Glad to hear that the maths currently support that idea!

[Tyriks]

So, I need to amend this. Tesla paired with MWBD is actually very good. I kept meaning to get around to calculating this and forgetting to. But I played against Orks today and brought a lot of Tesla and it did a crazy amount of work, so I decided to see how unusual that was (my 20 Tesla shots caused 38 hits...).

 

So, with MWBD you're hitting on 2s and scoring Tesla on 5s, meaning average rolls get 16.666 hits of which 10 are normal and 6.666 are triple hits, or 30 total hits. Against MEQ that averages 20 wounds and 6.666 failed saves, which is slightly worse than Gauss in Rapid Fire range with MWBD (I believe that was 7.04 failed saves) but better outside of 12". Against stuff with worse saves than MEQ Tesla takes the lead and ends up doing something like triple the wounds against stuff without saves or that uses invulnerable saves exclusively.

[Bonzi]

I'm not sure I'd spend even 1 CP for Enhanced Protocols, even on a large unit. I'd rather reroll a heavy Gauss Cannon shot or a critical save on my overlord. Maybe if we get a CP stealing or recycling relic/trait it would be worth it.

[Tyriks]

I'm not sure I'd spend even 1 CP for Enhanced Protocols, even on a large unit. I'd rather reroll a heavy Gauss Cannon shot or a critical save on my overlord. Maybe if we get a CP stealing or recycling relic/trait it would be worth it.

For 1cp it would be useful when you have a unit on an objective that you need to keep alive, or other "oh :cuss " moments. I wouldn't use it consistently though because it just doesn't do enough. At 2 cp even in those moments I can't justify myself to use it.

[NTaW]

There are rumours of a warlord trait that gives back CP on a 6+, nothing more than hearsay at the moment though.

[Tyriks]

Even with that, most lists would only be getting 1-2 extra CP on average. Not enough to waste two on rerolling ones, I think, unless you're truly desperate.

[NTaW]

Using the re-roll 1 stratagem in addition to the ResOrb or Cryptek's RP buff could be worth it, but I agree that it's definitely a desperation play. I'd sooner spend the 2CP to give my Wraiths a chance at coming back from the dead but then it would certainly have to be in conjunction with other options to increase the reliability of that CP expenditure.

[Emicus]

Pay a precious CP or just slap down an orb...

 

It's there when you desperately need to live I guess. But it's pretty gak.

[Dez]

So I've been looking at Tesla and Mephrit (adds -1 to ap within 1/2 range), as well as Deep Striking units like Deathmarks. Strategems like Enhanced Invasion Beams (deploy 2 units from Invasion Beams 1cp) and 2 units of Tesla Immortal squads. Catacomb Command Barge nearby uses MWBD and The Phaeron's Will (Use MWBD twice 1cp). I don't do up front math, my brain just does it all behind the scenes...and I think this could add up to some really hard hitting combos. Think about 10 Deathmarks targetting that pita Guilliman or one of the other Primarchs.

[Karhedron]

I'm not sure I'd spend even 1 CP for Enhanced Protocols, even on a large unit.

 

Here is the key thing though, do ERPs  affect 1 unit or the entire army? We only have the approximate wording so far (unless someone has seen a shot of the actual stratagem) so it seems to me to imply that it is army-wide.

 

If you have taken casualties on several units, it could be really good.

[NTaW]

Snip. As below. Edited March 14, 2018 by NTaW

[Tyriks]

Both say it targets one unit in your army. Wording is the same, I think. But that might be updated for the actual codex.

 

Mephrit will make Tesla more viable for sure. I have thought about many of the same combos, but don't have time yet for the math - it'll be devastating, though. Deathmarks will also be more effective for Mephrit since they should only come in in RF range anyway. -1ap will mean a few more actual damage to help those MWs finish the targets. And with a slight cost reduction you might even be able to field more than one unit to either gun down a bigger target (i.e. a certain rowboat) or multiple buff HQs. I'll do some math tonight probably to see how effective we can expect it to be.

[Karhedron]

Darn, you are right (just seen the shot), just 1 unit. That is seriously underwhelming for a 2 CP strat. :(