Full picture: All FW price increases collated in one file

[K0rtmer]

I felt the debate about Forge World's move to charge in local currencies (such as this: https://bit.ly/2M4EXZl) has been rather ... anecdotal so far. I mean, yeah, if you don't live under a rock you've come to know the gist of it. Many, if not all outside of the UK have seen prices for FW products increased, often very significantly. But I've never seen people discussing more than one individual product at a time - as opposed to systematically discussing their entire range?

Therefore I've decided to built a small web scraper to automatically list prices for all FW products, in all supported currencies, and calculate percentage increases relative to the UK price. The full results files can be accessed via my Google Drive.

• ASCII plain text
• MS Excel (.xlsx)

I haven't done a full statistical analysis yet, but thought the raw data is fairly insightful in itself, hence I decided to share.

For example, the New Zealand community is raving about price increases near 33%. Individual products have been marked up much more significantly though. For example, Raven Guard heads: +70%, Chaos Decimator weapon options: +63%. Overall, Australian Inquisition players seem to be hit hardest: purity seals, Inquisition Rhino back doors up 85%.

I thought it was amusing that the Polish player base appears to see several 'Imperial Armour' e-books down 79%, seemingly because somebody at FW copied the UK price, 12.99, into the field for Polish złoty. (1 zł = 0.21 £.)

Full data set in the link above, FYI.

[Interrogator Stobz]

Thanks for the confirmation.

[Brother Tyler]

Now all we need to see in order to have a more complete picture is the adjustments to shipping costs.

[Grotsmasha]

Thankyou :tu:

[PeteySödes]

Dang, well done and thanks for the effort!

[N1SB]

Brother Kortmer, thank you kindly, this could not have been more timely. I was literally just manually checking on some of these prices (I arbitrarily chose the Leviathan and its arms) and was wondering how much effort it'd take to script a parser or something to capture all the prices. Thank you for the due diligence, I realise and appreciate the effort. This is a 1st glance reaction.

As just an interesting point of reference, after the Brexit referendum, the British Pound dropped, at its lowest, around 15% against most other currencies. Like if you really wanted to make a point of how the new FW prices tried to bring prices back to what we outside of the UK should have paid before the Brexit referendum in their local currency, it'd be an obviously unpopular debate, but people could understand it. So I kept that 15%-ish number in mind as an easy-to-remember reference.

I know this isn't systematic, was just playing with some currency numbers quickly as a check

Looking at Brother Kortmer's table, the European countries are roughly within that range, with a +9% to +18% increase, like I could see if they wanted to make that argument. Everywhere else is all over the place in the new pricing model. I'm happy for our Scandanvian Fraters (who only get a +1% or +2% price increase), but really sadface for our New Zealand and Australian Fraters (as mentioned already these crazy +30% and +67%).

(I noticed delivery costs are still a thing and AFAIK hasn't changed, so it's not a case of prices having hidden shipping costs even with the new U.S. delivery infra, which could have gone to possibly explain New Zealand and Australia. In short, I'm confused.)

So I'm not just bothered with the price increases, but thanks to the Big Picture of this data, how it's really uneven for different countries. I was just asking an experienced hand in the area of foreign exchange hedging, but what I'm seeing doesn't fit into his logic, will be asking for more opinions. It's late and I'm weirded out, will comment more rationally later.

[TechType]

Brother Kortmer, my thanks - this is very interesting!

[m0nolith]

This is fantastic, thanks a million!

[Son of Carnelian]

Brother Kortmer and N1SB are both doing the Emperor's work. Knowledge is power and this is an excellent resource for the community.

[m0nolith]

Brother Kortmer, I hope you don't mind if I share this others on another Heresy based forum. 

It's a fantastic resource and an invaluable tool when it comes to figuring out what is what.

[K0rtmer]

...

 

As just an interesting point of reference, after the Brexit referendum, the British Pound dropped, at its lowest, around 15% against most other currencies.  Like if you really wanted to make a point of how the new FW prices tried to bring prices back to what we outside of the UK should have paid before the Brexit referendum in their local currency, it'd be an obviously unpopular debate, but people could understand it.  So I kept that 15%-ish number in mind as an easy-to-remember reference.

 

...

 

So I'm not just bothered with the price increases, but thanks to the Big Picture of this data, how it's really uneven for different countries.  I was just asking an experienced hand in the area of foreign exchange hedging, but what I'm seeing doesn't fit into his logic, will be asking for more opinions.  It's late and I'm weirded out, will comment more rationally later.

You're raising a very valid point there. I appreciate. I read somewhere that FW claimed loss of income of approx. £1.5m due to post-Brexit currency exchange rate? That's an awful lot of money in relative and absolute terms. I can totally see how they need to protect themselves, or even only gain some independence, from scenarios like this, particularly as Brexit proceeds. Yes, to contextualise a price increase with a compounded drop of exchange rates is valid - and could (or should) take a lot of heat out of the conversations we've had since. 

 

At the same time, as a customer, being firstly concerned with my position and not so much with that of FW, I can't say I found easy to accept how they went about a solution to their problem. In a way it doesn't bother me at all. I can still, demonstrably, afford more plastic than I can comfortably paint. I also haven't bought from FW in a long time, and won't for a long time to come, largely because I think they have real issues with quality control. But then, as a NZ-based hobbyist, I feel FW and GW   on me by default anyway. I don't enjoy the idea of yet another 40% markup. 

 

Brother Kortmer, I hope you don't mind if I share this others on another Heresy based forum. 

It's a fantastic resource and an invaluable tool when it comes to figuring out what is what.

Of course, you're most welcome to share it around. Mind you, and at the risk of stating the obvious: the listed prices are constant, but the percentage difference calculation involves currency exchange rates that fluctuate, hence the listed percentage differences fluctuate accordingly. (Which is basically the point of the whole story.) That's why I included a date-time in the code. If I run it again, numbers will be slightly different.

 

I'm happy to share an executable or the python source code also. Not my proudest work, but it does the job. PM me if you're interested at all.

[Elzender]

Brother Kortmer, I understand the loss of income you mention is the money FW would have gained with the same sales they made, if the exchange rate hadn't dropped? If so, it would be curious to see if the total income for equivalent time periods increased or decreased, because I think it might be a good guess to say that a lot of international customers bought more than they would if the rate hadn't dropped (and that included me :D).

[Semper Fortis]

Brother Kortmer, I understand the loss of income you mention is the money FW would have gained with the same sales they made, if the exchange rate hadn't dropped? If so, it would be curious to see if the total income for equivalent time periods increased or decreased, because I think it might be a good guess to say that a lot of international customers bought more than they would if the rate hadn't dropped (and that included me :D).

I, too, followed the rate and purchased accordingly. Whatever they may have lost on me in the exchange rate they certainly gained in volume sold. I spent an embarrassingly large amount, then doubled down with the LCTB *hangs head* I'm ashamed to admit.

[Jackalwolf]

They lost nothing in the exchange rate. They're listed in the London Exchange and report in pounds. They only won volume due to the devaluation.

 

If you report in pounds, one pound is still one pound. The situation you all mistake is when a company reports in foreign currency like say, Swiss francs, which is not the case.

 

Any reports or people that claim otherwise should be discredited immediately as they're going against all the basics of Macroeconomics.

 

Edit: if someone tries to pull the argument that they buy they prime materials overseas again, discredit. FW costs have nothing to do with COGS, since their sale price is marked up over 1000% above COGS, just like any luxury industry business model. Any significant costs they have come from overheads (factory, salary, etc) all of them again they pay in pounds so 1 pound is still 1 pound.

 

Economics 101 out.

[shandwen]

They lost nothing in the exchange rate. They're listed in the London Exchange and report in pounds. They only won volume due to the devaluation.

 

If you report in pounds, one pound is still one pound. The situation you all mistake is when a company reports in foreign currency like say, Swiss francs, which is not the case.

...

 

The loss comes from the increased cost of outsourced material and work. So their books being printed elsewhere a the cost of resin (i'm guessing that isn't sourced in the UK) will cause a drop in profits as opposed to a constant GBP value.

[Subtle Discord]

Books make up a small percent of the income generated by the company beside the models, I'm doubtful just how much impact the change to outsourced materials would have on the bottom line. Until recently, to their detriment, GW openly considered the rules (read: books) a mere extension of the models and practically an afterthought with how nonchalant they were in declaring that they're a miniature and model manufacturing company first and foremost. Now, I completely disagree with the idea, but it really does indicate where their bread and butter is. Even their paint, which I'm positive is a massive profit generator is made in the UK instead of outsourcing it. It's one thing I give GW major credit for, they keep much of their production in-house and at home in a time where that is becoming increasingly rare.

[Jackalwolf]

 

 

They lost nothing in the exchange rate. They're listed in the London Exchange and report in pounds. They only won volume due to the devaluation.

 

If you report in pounds, one pound is still one pound. The situation you all mistake is when a company reports in foreign currency like say, Swiss francs, which is not the case.

...

The loss comes from the increased cost of outsourced material and work. So their books being printed elsewhere a the cost of resin (i'm guessing that isn't sourced in the UK) will cause a drop in profits as opposed to a constant GBP value.

Gah I didn't post my edit fast enough. That's a more okay misconception to have since it could have logical sense. It is not the case in luxury industry where profit is not COGS driven but sales driven based in how much can you raise the willingness to pay of your customers. Think Armani, if cotton price goes up 200%, they still make all their profit. The costs come from marketing and overheads to sustain that WTP in the customers, not the prime materials. Books is the only item where they markup could be affected by prime material relative price fluctuations but they represent a very small percentage of their business and: 1. The increased demand would make up for it, 2. They can renegotiate with their supplier and 3. Most companies are insured to keep a constant exchange rate over a given period of time to avoid this.

 

Your argument would be very valid for instance in the construction industry.

[Jackalwolf]

It's one thing I give GW major credit for, they keep much of their production in-house and at home in a time where that is becoming increasingly rare.

Agreed, for me it's also the main practical reason to never use recasts (ignoring morals). All FW product is made under the best industry regulations and any product from non EU countries could use any kind of resin which could have harmful health effects (or not, no idea really but not willing to take the risk).

[amrogers3]

What's the best way to get this in a more "readable" format? I tried to convert to xls but didnt seem to work. 

[Grotsmasha]

What's the best way to get this in a more "readable" format?

 

You'll need to view it on a desktop with the Notepad window maximised for it to be easy to see.

[N1SB]

What's the best way to get this in a more "readable" format?

I know what you mean, Brother. Download the file (you should get a Notepad file called scrapefw-out.txt). Open it in Notepad, go to Format, turn off Word Wrap.

It should be, like, a really wiiide piece of text in Notepad, but everything will line up beautifully, like in the screenshot.

Brother Kortmer did a really good job with this. It's such a great big picture look at the issue.

+++++

I raised the currency issue and yes, that should be discredited from a financial point of view. Here's why I raised it...and why of it should NOT apply to FW or its prices.

From a finance perspective, the foreign exchange rate is just a number. So when the British Pound dropped suddenly after the Brexit vote, the rest of us worldwide suddenly had a FW sale, but it was a discount that FW shouldn't have to pay for. FW was still earning what it would've in GBP per thingy, it's just we had to pay less from our perspective. The only "loss" would've been maybe an opportunity cost, like "Well, if the GBP didn't drop, we could've sold this for more Euros" or something. It's a very crazy view, though.

From an operations perspective, it's not that simple if you have costs in other countries. You Fraters mentioned, and rightly so, what if you outsource all your manufacturing? And if you're running your own high street stores worldwide, what about rent? To use GW as an example, their operating expenses are divided thusly:

GW's (and FW's) raw materials is under Product and Supply, which includes their designers' salaries...and it's a tiny 4%. So even if they import their resin, it's a tiny part of their costs. But their rent, which is in their Retail a.k.a. Warhammer Stores and includes their one-store managers, is 53%, and that has to be paid in local currency. Imagine GW trying to pay the same amount they had done in Pounds Sterling before the Brexit vote, their landlords and red shirts would be like, "lol, no, don't pay me in that, especially now, give me my dollars/Yen/Krones!"

Honestly, an economist would not care about this, to him it's just an operational loss. To a guy having to pay rent...he would care. It comes up.

But NONE of that matters because FW famously HAS NO stores of its own, NONE of those costs except for resin! FW shouldn't be affected...

...unless GW is using FW to get foreign currency to funnel into its own international expansion?

+++++

So consider how, if you're GW, you want this "rainy day" pot of all sorts of currency, in the chance that the GBP will drop some more in the future. Plus, because you're expanding outside the UK, you have a need for those foreign currencies, and would rather not exchange for it at a worse rate.

Where can GW get foreign currency? Well, to start with, from its own business. GW's sales are divided up about 40% Trade a.k.a. FLGS, 40% Retail a.k.a. Warhammer Stores, 20% Mail Order incl. FW. They all do deal with foreign currencies, but they might not keep much of it in in those currencies. For Trade, there's so many distributor partners along the way, it might all end up GBP when GW gets it. Retail has to pay for its own rent and red shirts with its currency, a lot of times they're barely breaking even (until last year, the Retail segment was actually operating at a loss), so they'll hold on to those delicious dollars/Yen/Krones.

But Mail Order is under GW's direct control and it's full of that sweet, sweet foreign money. And FW is part of that. Thus the GW foreign money pot theory.

Also, know that I'm stretching here. I don't agree with what's happening, I'm not even playing devil's advocate with anyone, I'm just exploring all ideas.

+++++

My problem is, it still no way explains why FW prices are all over the place all over the world.

GW had converted the normal games-workshop.com for the Rest of World countries, including my own locale, to use U.S. dollars about a year ago. We pay basically American prices, it's easier for GW to count. Our beloved Warhammer Store here uses close to American prices, rounded up a bit. Loving our Australian our NZ Fraters, I took a look at your games-workshop.com prices...they were pretty much American prices rounded up, too. In short, that's all about even.

(IMPORTANT SIDENOTE - sudden huge foreign exchange rate fluctuations are NOT used by to price gouge. Like if you hedged currency properly, and you gain an upside...or a loss...it still gets marked down separately as operational income or loss. The main purpose of forex hedging is just to make it easy to count money using a constant standard. That's different than, say, an airline company trying to hedge its massive fuel costs by actually trying to get a good deal.)

Like even if I can swallow the pricing strategy argument, like FW's adjusting its prices back to what people should have paid for it in its own currency, why is Australia and New Zealand so out of line with everything else including what they pay on the normal games-workshop.com site? And even with pricing strategy, it's based on what customers are willing to pay...no one should be willing to pay 40%, 60%, 80% than another for FW!

I am genuinely outraged by this injustice, especially because it's so self-defeating. I'm starting to think it's not malice, but a screw-up. Somebody tried to do some forex hedging, they completely miscalculated their forecast, thus the screwed up prices. Hope it gets fixed.

[K0rtmer]

They lost nothing in the exchange rate. They're listed in the London Exchange and report in pounds. They only won volume due to the devaluation.

 

If you report in pounds, one pound is still one pound. The situation you all mistake is when a company reports in foreign currency like say, Swiss francs, which is not the case.

 

Any reports or people that claim otherwise should be discredited immediately as they're going against all the basics of Macroeconomics.

 

Edit: if someone tries to pull the argument that they buy they prime materials overseas again, discredit. FW costs have nothing to do with COGS, since their sale price is marked up over 1000% above COGS, just like any luxury industry business model. Any significant costs they have come from overheads (factory, salary, etc) all of them again they pay in pounds so 1 pound is still 1 pound.

 

Economics 101 out.

Good point. I don't think I reflected very critically on the statement by u/Zoggernaut, in the reddit thread I linked in the OP, that asserts they (GW) lost that much. Your response makes sense. Thanks for clarifying. 

 

What's the best way to get this in a more "readable" format?

It's a plain text file, should be perfectly readable if viewed in a text editor (such as MS Notepad - you have it if you run Windows). A preview in a browser window won't show the table clearly.

 

You can also import it into MS Excel, using the pipe, '|', as a delimiter character. In case you and/or other Frater are a bit unsure what I mean, I did it for you. Here's the same file as a Excel file, scrapefw-out.xlsx, on my Drive. I also edited the OP to include a link to the spreadsheet.

[kombatwombat]

Many thanks Brother Kormer.

 

Out of curiosity, I looked into the average increase for Australia. Of about 1600 products the average was 40.5%. Keep in mind that 20% VAT is included in the GBP price, for which the Australian equivalent GST is only 10%. So our total markup is 53%.

 

But yeah nah it’s fine we’re just cherry picking the examples where it works out badly...

[Jackalwolf]

Couldn't avoid doing a mini analysis based on this excellent file:

 

Comparison

 

Excluding VAT (would appreciate if you let me know if use assumptions for harmonised tax in US are wrong)

[Ranulf]

Excellent work Brother Kortmer, much appreciated.  

 

It's a pretty staggering price increase for those of us downunder in AUS and NZ.

 

-Ran