Repentia of the Bloody Rose (statistics)

[Beams]

So, I ran a simulation of Repentia vs Knights -- assuming five things:

Repentia swing first

Repentia are in range of Mistress

Repentia are in range of a War Hymn

Repentia are Order of the Bloody Rose

You won't bother with AoF

 

So, I ran the Sim 100,000 times.

 

Here are the results:

[0 damage] - 8 times

[2 damage] - 136 times

[4 damage] - 637 times

[6 damage] - 1908

[8] - 4753

[10] - 8292

[12] - 12585

[14] - 15357

[16] - 15810

[18] - 13998

[20] - 10906

[22] - 7230

[24] - 4350

[26] - 2316

[28] - 1049

[30] - 464

[32] - 141

[34] - 45

[36] - 11

[38] - 3

[40] - 1

 

Now, there are some important take aways here.

 

1) Low Damage (10 or less) is only a ≈15.7 chance, with the majority being 6s or 8s. So basically, if you roll less than 6 total damage on a Knight, you need to burn your dice, since they are cursed.

 

2) Medium Damage (12 to 18) - 57.75%

2b) Median Damage is a 16.

 

3) High Damage (20 and over) - 26.51%

This is great! 1/4th of the time, you will drop the knight to it's lowest stats. Unfortunately I think they have a strategem where that doesn't matter, and they can definitely just walk out of combat with you.

 

4) Instagibbing a Castellan Probability (28+) - 1.71%

So, no, 9 Repentia won't instagib a knight Castellan, not unless you proc AoFs.

 

5) Instagibbing weaker knights (24+) - 8.38%

So, basically a little better than rolling a 20 on a d20. It's a gamble, and one that you will most often lose. But, on the bright side, there's a chance.

 

 

 

Other Thoughts:

This doesn't include the priest or mistress fighting, and obvs Knights aren't the ideal targets for Repentia -- Terminators/Primaris are, the median amount of Primaris killed is 13, and Terminators 11.

 

Repentia will also tear through Helbruts/Dreads, Rhinos, Tauroxes, Leman Russes, basically anything that is weaker t8, 16 wounds and a 3+ save will be melted by these girls.

 

 

Edit: The explode after death strategem for Repentia will rise the chance of killing a paladin to a 15.29 if he stomps you, and a 9.37 if he doesn't.

[Slasher956]

At nearly 200 points for the 3 units.... I should hope they tear through 200 point units when they only have CC.....

 

And currently (as far as I know) are the only <order> CC unit,

[Tirak]

3 units of Repentia it is! XD

 

Now I don't know much about sisters (always wanted to try the army but was too expensive), but does this order give them the possibility of getting the 4++, and if not, what would the numbers look like for that order?

[Beams]

At nearly 200 points for the 3 units.... I should hope they tear through 200 point units when they only have CC.....

 

And currently (as far as I know) are the only <order> CC unit,

A 10 woman squad of OoBR Celestians backed by a priest will absolutely kill their equivalent's min sized unit in CC through sheer weight of dice, without any power weapons. With power weapons, it's even better.

 

But a 10 woman squad vs a 10 man guard squad will 64.8% of the time straight up eliminate 10 Guardsmen. If your willing to leave one guy and have morale finish him, it's 77%. Add in the priest himself, and that goes up to like 85-90.

 

Vs Marines, your killing all 5 36% of the time, killing four 57.26 of the time. Of course, Marines are better against morale, which is why a power axe for your leader is essential -- she'll kill one to two Marines most of the time. (Any power weapon is good, but it goes Axe, Sword, Maul. Other orders it goes Maul, Axe, Sword, since S3 is way worse than Str 4, but Str 6 is the same as Str 5 when fighting Marines)

 

So, Celestians will be useful as decent shock troops. Shoot stuff, and then charge a troops squad to eliminate them. Its basically what elites are good for, I guess?

 

And priests are worth their weight in gold, since they make all of our melee units insanely better.

[Purifying Tempest]

Should add in the Sim of the Knight swinging back and eating mortal wounds for killing repentia. That could push those one-shot scenarios up a bit.

[Beams]

3 units of Repentia it is! XD

 

Now I don't know much about sisters (always wanted to try the army but was too expensive), but does this order give them the possibility of getting the 4++, and if not, what would the numbers look like for that order?

Any order can give them the 4++, since afaik the +1 SoF warlord trait is orderless.

 

However wthout bloody rose trait, you are looking at a massive reduction in damage vs T6-8, the median damage being 10, High damage being 16 with around 15% to hit it, but very low chance to do much more than that.

 

At that point, Arcos start looking good, since the Extremis trigger word gets them almost the same average damage 9 to 10, but allows them to basically kill the loyal 32 in one round of combat if you somehow get them all in one charge (35% CHANCE)

[Beams]

Should add in the Sim of the Knight swinging back and eating mortal wounds for killing repentia. That could push those one-shot scenarios up a bit.

 

Ok, so assuming this is a melee knight and decides to stomp them, the results look like this (keep in mind, the more damage you do, the less he can do, hence the weird double spike -- dealing 17 and then exploding is better than dealing 18 and then exploding)

 

[1]: 1

[2]: 5

[3]: 26

[4]: 45

[5]: 122

[6]: 252

[7]: 491

[8]: 737

[9]: 1299

[10] 1938

[11]: 2746

[12]: 3597

[13]: 4557

[14]: 5300

[15]: 6160

[16]: 6996

[17]: 7331

[18]: 7645

[19]: 7466

[20]: 7891

[21]: 7743

[22]: 6876

[23]: 5478

[24]: 4094

[25]: 3057

[26]: 4386

[27]: 1142

[28]: 1632

[29]: 161

[30]: 541

[31]: 11

[32]: 176

[34]: 59

[36]: 24

[38]: 5

 

 

So, important caveat here: if they kill the knight before he swings (an ≈8% chance), you don't get to explode.

 

However, if he swings and kills a lot of Repentia, especially if you did a lot of damage on your turn, there's a chance you overkill the knight, by exploding your Repentias.

 

Now, that said, if he chooses to stomp, you are looking at a 15.29% chance to explode and finish off the knight.

 

If he doesn't choose to stomp, and instead use 5 attacks with a melee weapon, the chance you explode anf kill him drops to 9.37, because 5 attacks with a wounded WS, that still have a 16% chance to miss on the wound roll, and a 16% chance you save them with sheild of faith, won't kill all that many of them, and in this scenario, dying helps!

 

So a knights smartest move is to Chainblade and run, provided you didn't AoF. If you did AoF, he wants to stomp you, and hope he kills you and doesn't get kill3d by your Repentias Explosions, so you can move and shoot next turn.

 

That said, this is imagining Repentia without a boost to their invuln rolls, since a 4++ Repentia won't die as often, and will do significantly less MW damage.

[Purifying Tempest]

Nice, doubles the chance. I mean still talking about 1 in 6 type numbers, but that is still an impressive one-round showing for the repentia!

[Mossback]

I played a squad of nine Repentia sisters this weekend, backed up by a Mistress of Repentance, and they murdered a five man squad of jump pack Space Marines. The Space Marines had just killed my missionary, Sister Madonna (proxied by Necromunda model Mad Donna), and my sisters wanted revenge. Suggestion for all; charge in with a Rhino first to take the overwatch, then the Repentia did their work with the chainswords. My sisters are already of the Order of the Bloody Rose, and this is making me want to take at least one more squad of them when the plastic release is made. I am also interested in seeing how our transport rules might change with the Beta Codex this weekend. It would be nice if we could take a Preacher or Missionary in the transport with our Sororitas squads. Right now, I believe they must have the <ORDER> keyword to hitch a ride.

[Drider]

yeah, i keep thinking about BR, with 2, maybe even 3 units of repentia and smash canonesses.

[Ficinus]

Right now, a model needs the Adeptus Ministorum keyword to ride in a Sisters' transport, so priests and battle conclave units can ride. Hopefully it remains that way in the Beta codex.

[WAR]

Finally GW gives me a reason to field my 27 Repentia outside of Apocalypse

[Purifying Tempest]

Right now, a model needs the Adeptus Ministorum keyword to ride in a Sisters' transport, so priests and battle conclave units can ride. Hopefully it remains that way in the Beta codex.

 

Adeptus Ministorum, and matching <Order> if the unit has the <Order> tag.  I believe that will be the rule we see in the beta-dex.  So no Bloody Rose Repentia hitching rides in Our Martyred Lady's Rhinos.  But Arcos can pile into any Order's Immolator, if that is your wish.

[ERJAK]

Not to be a wet blanket, but any of these units actually getting into combat at full strength, with something they want to fight, isn't great. Getting repentia into combat with a knight is especially optimistic.

[Beams]

Not to be a wet blanket, but any of these units actually getting into combat at full strength, with something they want to fight, isn't great. Getting repentia into combat with a knight is especially optimistic.

The 2Rs - Rhinos and Redundancy.

 

If your going to bring Arcos or Repentia, bring 3 squads, and/or place them in Rhinos. You also want your mid-range firepower to be drawing fire, which admittedly was easier when Sisters could double move.

[taikishi]

 

Right now, a model needs the Adeptus Ministorum keyword to ride in a Sisters' transport, so priests and battle conclave units can ride. Hopefully it remains that way in the Beta codex.

 

Adeptus Ministorum, and matching <Order> if the unit has the <Order> tag.  I believe that will be the rule we see in the beta-dex.  So no Bloody Rose Repentia hitching rides in Our Martyred Lady's Rhinos.  But Arcos can pile into any Order's Immolator, if that is your wish.

 

 

And only Rhinos and Immolators. Repressors can only transport <Order> Infantry, no Ministorum units.

[bearden441]

Do you have sim numbers that take into account overwatch or other modifiers that could damage the squad before reaching combat?

[Drider]

Just divide by 9 and then multiply by the number of repentia you think will strike in combat. :p

[Beams]

Do you have sim numbers that take into account overwatch or other modifiers that could damage the squad before reaching combat?

That would depend on each knight, with the flamethrower knights hurting them the most.

 

Really, my suggestion is to charge with a rhino or other tanky unit, so you don't have to worry about that.

[Slasher956]

Re flamers... charge from 8.1” ..easier if you have a mistress so you re roll failed charges

[Mossback]

I played a game today against a Guard unit. 1,000 point game, which was grossly lopsided. the other guy had a Baneblade, Lehman Russ, a Manticore, mortar squad, Sly Marbo, a squad of conscripts, and Commissar Yarrick. I brought two Cannonesses, three squads of battle sisters (1 melta, 1 flamer, 1 Simulacrum, 6 BSS and a SS)x3, two Dominion squads (4xmelta, SS/w combi-melta), (4xStorm Bolters, SS/w Storm Bolter), 1 repressor, 1 Rhino, 8 Repentia, 1 Mistress, and 1 Preacher. I used the Order of the Bloody Rose for the Battalion, and can say the Repentia were amazing. The Rhino got destroyed 1st turn, so the Repentia were forced to foot slog it to the Lehman Russ. The Preacher charged first, taking one wound on overwatch, the the Repentia and Mistress followed. The 8 Repentia were each hitting 4 times, hitting on a 4+, re-rolling misses thanks to the Mistress, and wounding on a 4+. They completely destroyed the tank, which promptly rolled a 6 and exploded. The explosion damaged my sisters, but also took out his mortar team and Sly Marbo. I had less luck getting them into the Baneblade.  The Preacher died to overwatch, then the Mistress, and managed to get two Repentia into the Baneblade. Without the buff from the Preacher and Mistress, they weren't able to land a single wound. My Canoness and Warlord was also able to make the charge, and dealt three wounds with her Blade of Admonition. The Acts of Faith were less than impressive as I failed the chance to add a +1 one to hit on my Melta Dominions. Repentia are going to be an auto-include for me with the Bloody Rose, along with the Preacher and Mistress.