Havoc mathhammer

[Drudge Dreadnought]

Posted this over at Dakka, but figured folks here might be interested too.

I ran the numbers on some havoc heavy weapons and included a column adjusted for points.

 

 

EDIT: I had copied a cell wrong and had calculated the Lascannons off 34 pts instead of 39. Fixed now. Doesn't change much.

EDIT 2: The Autocannon and Lascannon incorrectly had re-roll ALL hits. Corrected now. Worse, but still about the same overall conclusions.

 

As expected, the Reaper Chain Cannon is very good. And with access to re-rolls, it gets an even bigger lead due to the number of shots. However, the other weapons may be worth considering when you consider range. Even if you are willing to forward deploy your havocs, the chain cannons can get outmaneuvered or just be on the wrong area of the board. Longer range weapons have this problem less.

Without rerolls, Autocannons only compete vs Rhinos. Once re-roll 1's to hit is included, they compete vs vehicles and multi-wound models, especially with their range taken into account. Once re-roll 1's to wound comes in, the reaper pulls ahead on a bunch of targets, but the autocannon is still okay. It's probably worth it for the extra 24" of range if you want tank killers.

Heavy Bolters are basically the same profile and only a bit more range. They are about half as efficient most of the time, and only gain 12" range for it. Basically never gonna be worth it.

Lascannons are about even on multiwound models, and of course are solidly ahead vs vehicles and behind vs infantry. With re-rolls, the Chain Cannon narrows the gap a fair amount.

 

Note that using VotLW will benefit multi-shot weapons more, and low strength weapons more. So it's the bigget benefit to the Chain Cannon again. And in the 48" bracket, it helps autocannons more than lascannons.

This is by model, so the champion isn't included here. Does he have to take a special weapon? Can he take a cheap combi-bolter? If he does have to take a special, then he's just a big points tax on the longer range weapons, but still can contribute with a plasma gun in the Chain Cannon squad.

I didn't bother included missile launchers because who even takes those.

My overall conclusion is that there's still a solid role for lascannons and autocannons. The las is nice for double shoot stratagem, and the shoot in your opponents turn if they went first strat. (assuming chain cannons aren't in range, or need to hide in a transport turn 1.) Autocannons are nice as maybe a third squad, or for cheaper units overall. You could put the Chain Cannons on your CSM squads and let the havocs be cheaper and longer ranged antivehicle.

[Lord Asvaldir]

Very nice layout man, definetly nice to have some solid math on how the heavy weapons work. 

 

I am not surprised at all that the chainreaper is probably all round the best weapon. Just given how 8th edition works anything that's a high number of shots with reasonable ap is going to do better than high strength, ap and damage weapons but low number of shots. I am glad to see thought that lascannons have a place, they do have a slight edge it looks like verses +3 save high wound models, and although it's only a slight edge numbers wise after you factor in the range that definetly sells lascannons as having a place in a list as solid backfield support. 

 

I am unsurprised that heavy bolters are now near useless, just considering they are half the cost for less than half the shots, it's hard to justify them. I could maybe consider them in standard marine squads, but again given the chainreaper is 8 shots, -1 to hit just isn't a big deal. 

 

Not sure about autocannons, the math here indicates that chainreapers edge them out over most targets. Now there is the double range and cheaper cost to consider, but again there's only a few targets they actually do better again. 

 

It's a shame missile launchers aren't better considering they are one of the easier heavy weapons to come by now given they are in the standard marine box, but o well. 

[Midnight Brotherhood]

Having a single missile launcher is still worth it for the flakk strategem, you hit on 2+ against fly targets for D3 mortal wounds for 1CP.

[Drudge Dreadnought]

Having a single missile launcher is still worth it for the flakk strategem, you hit on 2+ against fly targets for D3 mortal wounds for 1CP.

 

Yeah. I don't think i'd want to dilute a quad lascannon or quad chain cannon squad, but it would go well with autocannons.

[Gothical]

Thanks for the stats - I'm too mathematically stunted to work it all out to that level of detail.

 

My gut feeling is that Havocs will work best with Autocannons or Lascannons. The Chaingun is an amazing weapon but when you combine the range with what a target the unit will be I very much doubt the unit will live long enough to fire it more than once. In a CSM squad is perfect, sure you lose the mobility but gain serious protection and makes a poorly-regarded unit a threat for your opponent.

 

I do think there is a role for the Missile Launcher in certain builds against certain opponents. For example. a Slaanesh-marked unit in the new Vigilus formation would mean you can fire Frag rounds in the enemy's movement phase to clear a screening unit (gaunts, Guardsmen) then double-shoot with Krak rounds to kill whatever big gribbly (vehicle or monster) is now exposed - and potentially drop the Flakk stratagem on it if a FMC. Very corner-case though - Autocannons or Lascannons seem the best to me.

[Furnace Lord]

Thanks for the stats - I'm too mathematically stunted to work it all out to that level of detail.

 

My gut feeling is that Havocs will work best with Autocannons or Lascannons. The Chaingun is an amazing weapon but when you combine the range with what a target the unit will be I very much doubt the unit will live long enough to fire it more than once. In a CSM squad is perfect, sure you lose the mobility but gain serious protection and makes a poorly-regarded unit a threat for your opponent.

 

I do think there is a role for the Missile Launcher in certain builds against certain opponents. For example. a Slaanesh-marked unit in the new Vigilus formation would mean you can fire Frag rounds in the enemy's movement phase to clear a screening unit (gaunts, Guardsmen) then double-shoot with Krak rounds to kill whatever big gribbly (vehicle or monster) is now exposed - and potentially drop the Flakk stratagem on it if a FMC. Very corner-case though - Autocannons or Lascannons seem the best to me.

This is something I've been wondering, whether the rotor cannons might be better spread among standard chaos marine squads and leave longer ranged weapons to the Havocs.

[Finkmilkana]

Nice setup, though I’m wondering what formula you used for reroll 1s? Shouldn’t re-roll 1s normally just multiply the damage (and therefore also the wounds per point) by 7/6 (since every shot once has has a 4/6 chance to hit and a 1/6 chance to miss with 1 one, in which case it gets another 4/6 chance to hit). The number of shots then shouldn’t matter for the percentage gain, since the event for each shot is independent of all other shots (outside of overkill when a whole unit is destroyed, which does not seem to be modeled). Or is there something else at work here that I‘m missing?

[Drudge Dreadnought]

 

This is something I've been wondering, whether the rotor cannons might be better spread among standard chaos marine squads and leave longer ranged weapons to the Havocs.

 

 

Well, never fear! I've just run some numbers for common weapons on regular CSM, so you can compare them.

 

Here is a Reaper Chain Cannon, a Plasma Gun, and a bolter.

 

 

This assumes 24" and stationary. So at 12" you'll need to double the plasma. If they moved, the Reaper gets worse due to -1 to hit, and the bolter could lose its second shot.

 

Interesting to note that the bolter is more efficient than the plasma against some infantry, but not once the plasma gets it second shot. And of course the reaper is just incredible. There doesn't seem to be any reason to take anything else unless you are shooting tanks or multiwound models at 12" or closer. Then the plasma catches up.

 

Also in my original image, I had copied a cell wrong and calculated the lascannons a 34 pts instead of 39. I've updated it. It doesn't change anything major, as it was only a few points off.

 

 

Nice setup, though I’m wondering what formula you used for reroll 1s? Shouldn’t re-roll 1s normally just multiply the damage (and therefore also the wounds per point) by 7/6 (since every shot once has has a 4/6 chance to hit and a 1/6 chance to miss with 1 one, in which case it gets another 4/6 chance to hit). The number of shots then shouldn’t matter for the percentage gain, since the event for each shot is independent of all other shots (outside of overkill when a whole unit is destroyed, which does not seem to be modeled). Or is there something else at work here that I‘m missing?

 

I have no idea! I'm using the Carnage Calculation Engine spreadsheet that someone made awhile back. I'm not sure what the actual formulas are. (I suppose I can go look.) But I believe it's correct? Lots of people have used this before.

[Finkmilkana]

Looking at it a bit more, it seems that it’s just the auto cannon that has strange values. With reroll 1 to hit against marines for example I would expect 2.07 damage.

While I haven’t checked all values, at least most of the other weapons seem to be what I would expect (besides some minor rounding errors). Did some parameter maybe slip up?

 

Edit2: Ah no, the lascannon seems to also be somewhat wrong. It seems that lascannon and autocannon are multiplied by 8/6 instead of 7/6, i.e. the given values are for reroll all failed hits instead of reroll 1s. Makes the chain gun even better in comparison.

[Drudge Dreadnought]

Looking at it a bit more, it seems that it’s just the auto cannon that has strange values. With reroll 1 to hit against marines for example I would expect 2.07 damage.

While I haven’t checked all values, at least most of the other weapons seem to be what I would expect (besides some minor rounding errors). Did some parameter maybe slip up?

 

Edit2: Ah no, the lascannon seems to also be somewhat wrong. It seems that lascannon and autocannon are multiplied by 8/6 instead of 7/6, i.e. the given values are for reroll all failed hits instead of reroll 1s. Makes the chain gun even better in comparison.

 

Arg, good catch. This is what i get for doing spreadsheets at 2am. It's fixed now. The Chain Cannon is straight up better than the lascannon with re-roll 1's to wound, even against very heavy armor. And certainly against anything with an invulnerable save that negates the lascannons AP.

[Ghorgul]

 

This is something I've been wondering, whether the rotor cannons might be better spread among standard chaos marine squads and leave longer ranged weapons to the Havocs.

It only took Chaos 10k years to make rotor cannons work, and considering they were utterly bad yet common weapon option in the Heresy they must have plenty lying around. The point being Chaos marines should have plenty lying around in all the cleaning cupboards and other places, so it makes perfect sense for all the troop CSMs to suddenly prance around with rotor cannons.

 

Completely agreed that it's better to split them to standard chaos marine squads, it has great synergy with normal bolters because of shared ranged and being expensive weapon 1 in 5 man unit provides 4 ablative wounds. However because of the pure firepower Reaper Chaincannon can put out the firepower reduction from casualties in 5 CSMs + 1 rotor cannon is nowhere near linear as before. Against GEQ and MEQ targets the Reaper Chaincannon provides about 55-66% of squads total firepower, so suffering 80% casualties (4/5) will degrade the firepower only 45% to 33% percent.

[Finkmilkana]

I‘m sorry I didn’t catch it yesterday (was sadly quite late here), but it seems the reroll 1 to wound for chaincannon and heavy bolter has the same problem, i.e. the value shown is for reroll all wounds (which is a massive boost to weapons that only wound on 5+).

 

The chain cannon, while absolutely brutal, should only outperform the lascannon against T6+ if every AP beyond 1 is wasted (at which point it’s about 1/8 better) or if Votlw is played (which is a massive boost to S5).

[Drudge Dreadnought]

I‘m sorry I didn’t catch it yesterday (was sadly quite late here), but it seems the reroll 1 to wound for chaincannon and heavy bolter has the same problem, i.e. the value shown is for reroll all wounds (which is a massive boost to weapons that only wound on 5+).

 

The chain cannon, while absolutely brutal, should only outperform the lascannon against T6+ if every AP beyond 1 is wasted (at which point it’s about 1/8 better) or if Votlw is played (which is a massive boost to S5).

 

Yep, you're right. Looks like I messed it up because the cell is a drop down where you select an option. Then if you scroll with the scroll ring, it changes the selection. So when I scrolled down the sheet it'd mess it up >_< It's fixed now.

[Xenith]

Looks like 2x las 2x havoc squads and 2x reaper chain CSM squads for me then!

[Lord Asvaldir]

My plan at this point is to run 6 5 man csm squads in two battalions and I'm honestly tempted to run chainreapers in all of them, but man it's going to be difficult to get that many chainreaper bits. 

[nanosquid]

I think you're making a big mistake ignoring missile launchers with the new rules, ESPECIALLY considering the new Apostle prayers - one of them is a free +1 to hit in shooting for a nearby unit. 4 krak missiles that hit on twos are nothing to sneeze at, especially considering your Havocs can now reposition on their perch without penalty to ensure they have LoS around that skyscraper every game board has. Plus, consider the Devistation Battery specialist detachment from Vigilus Ablaze - if you give that same Dark Apostle the warlord trait, you're even going to be rerolling wounds vs vehicles. I also play Iron Warriros, so even 4d6 frag shots with no cover at 48" that hit on a 2+ isn't a complete waste.

[Xenith]

Indeed, ML are also what, half the price of lascannons? A 4x lascannons unit is super expensive and a massive target. I'd rather take a mix.

 

Id think a comparison of wounds per point between MLs and Lascannons would be useful.

[Lord Asvaldir]

A missile launcher is 5 points cheaper than a lascannon, significant but in most cases I'd pay the extra 20pts for a havoc squads weapons to gain an extra strength and ap.  

 

I think you're making a big mistake ignoring missile launchers with the new rules, ESPECIALLY considering the new Apostle prayers - one of them is a free +1 to hit in shooting for a nearby unit. 4 krak missiles that hit on twos are nothing to sneeze at, especially considering your Havocs can now reposition on their perch without penalty to ensure they have LoS around that skyscraper every game board has. Plus, consider the Devistation Battery specialist detachment from Vigilus Ablaze - if you give that same Dark Apostle the warlord trait, you're even going to be rerolling wounds vs vehicles. I also play Iron Warriros, so even 4d6 frag shots with no cover at 48" that hit on a 2+ isn't a complete waste.

 

Right all those buffs are great, but you can throw the same buffs on a unit of havocs with chainreapers or a lascannons, so I don't really see your point. 

 

Honestly I think the biggest argument for missile launchers is from a modeling perspective, now that the standard csm squads come with one it's much easier to get your hands on plenty of missile launchers to throw on havocs and standard marines. 

[nanosquid]

 

 

Right all those buffs are great, but you can throw the same buffs on a unit of havocs with chainreapers or a lascannons, so I don't really see your point. 

 

 

 

My point is that they won't be carrying a huge glowing sign saying "shoot me" as they march forward in the open to get within 24" (or disembark from the rhino, more likely). T5 is excellent but as I also play marine-heavy DG I can tell you that T5 on a 1w model isn't a guarantee of survival, even with Disgustingly Resilient. A few missile strikes from afar every turn will not draw the enemy's ire and can stay around longer camping an objective or peppering the enemy with shots. Coupled with forward units like obliterators, the two or three wounds the missiles did on your target may be just enough to grab that kill point. I think the chaincannons are best spread among your csm squads who will be in the thick of the fighting anyway; even with the -1 to hit an 8 shot heavy bolter is going to be a serious problem, but if it's split between four squads it's not an easy problem to solve. I think it's a trap to dump so much heavy weaponry in one squad, as it makes them target priority number 1 from the start of the game, so you have very little time to actually benefit from them (see: lootas). Havocs aren't going to be as flashy with the long range fire support, but I personally think they will be the secret to a lot of victories. Those 20 points you spend can be made more valuable with the less powerful option if they spend longer on the table dishing out the hurt.

[Finkmilkana]

Whether ML are a viable alternative greatly depends on the opponent. Against T7 they are quite serviceable, but against T8 (like knights) the additional point of strength really shows. That said, chaincannons should probably mostly be put in CSM or Chosen squads.

[Subtle Discord]

 

Honestly I think the biggest argument for missile launchers is from a modeling perspective, now that the standard csm squads come with one it's much easier to get your hands on plenty of missile launchers to throw on havocs and standard marines. 

For those who are worried about getting more Chaincannons, this also applies if you're willing to do the rather easy conversion; there's 3 Hvy. Bolters across the two kits, and it really isn't that hard to find a solution to add a rotary barrel to them for very convincing counts-as conversion. Let me get the kits in my hands (ordering very soon) and I'll have a solution in short enough order. Damn, I'm going to get reeeally busy soon, I suspect. The short range and rate of fire make them excellent run-and-gun weapons so each of my basic 5-man Chaos Marine squads is getting one, so I need a solution as much as anyone else. I'm also going to sit down and do some sketches for weapons because I want to do something more than just adequate/simple Chain Axes; I'm going to pull out my old Servants of Darkness and Legion of the Damned books and have a look at the numerous illustrations of weapons for some inspiration.

[dakkamasta]

All this talk of rotor cannons in CSM squads is making me so giddy. It's great to see CSM finally have a good weapon to turn them into a legitimate threat.

 

As a Black Legion player the thought of 2-4 CSM squads marching up alongside Abaddon with rotor cannons spinning....mmmmmmmm

[Dallas Drake]

Getting something that looks like a chaincannon isn't so much of an issue (although it is both stupid & cheeky by GW to put just 1 in the kit). My concern is getting the right arms. If these are like the majority of recent kits then the poses of the ML and lascannon guy will need significant conversion work to get them holding a heavy bolter or chaincannon.

 

Edit: Just looked at the sprue on GW website, the autocannon is an easy conversion too, so that's enough bits to use as a base. Alternatively I've just come across Kromlech's Legionary Minigun... looks perfect.

[Cheex]

I think you're making a big mistake ignoring missile launchers with the new rules, ESPECIALLY considering the new Apostle prayers - one of them is a free +1 to hit in shooting for a nearby unit. 4 krak missiles that hit on twos are nothing to sneeze at, especially considering your Havocs can now reposition on their perch without penalty to ensure they have LoS around that skyscraper every game board has. Plus, consider the Devistation Battery specialist detachment from Vigilus Ablaze - if you give that same Dark Apostle the warlord trait, you're even going to be rerolling wounds vs vehicles. I also play Iron Warriros, so even 4d6 frag shots with no cover at 48" that hit on a 2+ isn't a complete waste.

 

Unfortunately, you can't give a Dark Apostle the Armour Bane trait as he can't get the Devastation Battery keyword.

[Drudge Dreadnought]

Well let's take a look at the numbers on the missile launcher! I've compared both missile types to the autocannon and lascannon.

 

 

The Krak Missile vs Lascannon is a straightforward comparison. In the best case scenario of re-rolling 1's to hit and wound, the Krak about breaks even in efficiency per point vs Rhinos, but fails against tougher armor (the stuff that really matters.) It also beats the autocannon in the case of all 3 vehicle types, but the efficiency isn't actually that far ahead. The gap between autocannon and missile launcher is smaller than the gap between missiles and lascannons vs the tougher tanks.

 

Does the frag missile profile make up for the difference in performance between the krak and the lascannon? That's going to be situational of course. Theoretically you could encounter a situation where there are no good targets for a lascannon/krak missile. But is that actually going to happen in the current meta? Green Tide exists, but I don't think it's that common an issue. And let's note that the Lascannon is actually more efficient against Space Marines and Multi-Wound infantry than either Frag or Krak missiles. The Frag only has a role vs horde infantry.

 

So how about the comparison with the autocannon? Both the missile Launcher and Autocannon serve a similar role as flexible weaponry. One by having 2 profiles, and the other by having a middle ground profile and being cheap. As mentioned before, the autocannon is a bit behind vs high toughness vehicles. It pulls even against light vehicles, especially ones with poor armor saves. Its more efficient against space marines than either Frag or Krak, about equal against multi-wound heavy infantry, and better against multi-wound infantry with lesser armor save. And surprisingly, even beats out Frag Missiles vs both boyz and Guard, the main place we'd expect frag missiles to excel (and where the autocannons D2 is wasted). And it has the advantage of just being a cheaper squad overall!

 

So now we have numbers to put to my initial instinct that missile launchers weren't good and have no real role because Autocannons do it better. If you don't want lascannons because you aren't sure you'll have enough targets for them, you should be using autocannons. Or perhaps a mix of autocannons and a missile launchers to shift away from anti-infantry and towards anti-heavy vehicle, and so you can use Flakk Missile strat.

 

I'll also point out that the reason the missile launcher doesn't compete isn't because of krak missiles, it's because frag missiles are bad. And frag missiles are bad for 2 reasons:

1) Because all formerly small blast weapons are bad. 1d6 shots is not a proper translation of what a small blast could achieve. It should have been 3+d3, in which case the frag missile would beat the autocannon vs hordes, as it ought to.

2) Because all of these Marine former str4 ap5 weapons became str4 ap0, which is also why regular bolters aren't that good. Other faction's Str4 ap5 weapons became Str4 ap-1 or equivalent special mechanics (Necrons and Eldar), or got significant mechanics to help them out (orks.)

 

So the Frag missile is a victim of a double whammy of system changes without its stats being adjusted to make up for it. If these issues got fixed, it'd be good at its current cost and have a role again. If it got cheaper in points, the frag missile would re-gain its role vs the autocannon, but then krak missiles would steal the role of lascannons. Which is why it's better to fix its stats than to just make it cheaper.