Primaris vs Firstborn: The Math

[Schlitzaf]

The Math: Primaris vs Firstborn

As we all know, a Firstborn Tactical Chassis is costed arounf 14-15 points vs a Primaris Chassis anywhere 19-21 points. The Primaris Chassis has dbl Attack&Wound Stat.

 

So for 30 Points of Firstborn you get 2 Wounds, 2 Bolter Shots, and 2 Melee.

Vs

20 Points of Primaris is 2 Wounds, 1 (Better Bolter) and 2 Melee. (Wanted equalize points Primaris Are 3 Wounds, 1.5 Better Bolter and 3 Melee).

 

So then we have Combat/Angel/Bolter&Rapid

 

Which for is:

Firstborn is 2 Wounds, 4 Shots, 4 Melee (First Round)

vs

Primaris is 3 Wounds, 3 Shots, and 4.5 Melee

 

So First shoot a smidge better and have comparable melee output in first round.

 

 

If we wanted to take 60 point comparison to avoid weirdd half models we have:

Firstborn: 4 Wounds, 4 (8 Bolter), 4 (8 First Round)

Vs

Primaris: 6 Wounds, 3 (6 Bolter), 6 (9 First Round)

 

Offensively in Shooting Firstborn > Primaris in terms of raw attacks. Primaris have static -1 AP on basic weapons, but Firstborn have plethora of Specials. Which once we get into squads we actually take you see that. So let take that into account 2 5 Man Squads

 

Classic Dbl MSU Plasma Cadie (95)

5 Wounds

3 Bolter (6 Rapid), 2 Plasma (4 In Rapid)

7 Melee (12 In First)

Or

4 Melee and 2 PowWeapon (or 8 and 3 in First)

 

Vs Cessors 5 Man Naked

10 Wounds

5 Better Bolter (10 Rapid)

12 Melee (17 in FirstRound)

 

So as we see Cessors Wound Count > Firstborn

 

Shooting is slightly harder now lets shoot a Meq Chassis at Long:

Tacticals

3 > 2 > 1 > 0.33

2 > 1.32 > 1.1 (or 0.88 for those less daring) > 0.9 (or 0.74)

Looking at 1.2 or 1 Dead Marine

 

Cessors

5 > 3.32 > 1.65 > 0.88.

On average 1 Dead Marine. But variance hurts here. At this point Tacticals are around 25% or 10% better than Cessors.

 

In Rapid

Tacticals:

6 > 4 > 2 > 0.66

4 > 2.66 > 2.22 (or 1.8) > 1.8 (or 1.5)

So lookign at 2.5 or 2 Dead Marines

 

Tacticals In Disciple Not Rapid

6 > 4 > 2 > 0.66

2 > 1.32 > 1.1 (or 0.88) > 0.9 (or 0.74)

Is 1.56 or 1.4

 

Cessors:

10 > 6.66 > 3.33 > 1.65.

 

So when shooting full capacity Tacticals > Cessors. Almost full 33% (or 25%) better than Cessors at that point.

 

Both at long they do so, and if BolterDiscipline but not Rapid are equal.

 

Melee

Tacticals

4 > 2,66 > 1.33 > 0.44

2 > 1.32 > 0.66 > 0.55

Rounds to 1 Dead Marine

 

Cessors* (I am assuming Astartes becomes Universal)

8 > 5.32 > 2.66 > 0.9

4 > 2.66 > 1.32 > 0.65

 

Rounds to 1.6 dead Marines

 

Tacticals

With ShockAssault

8 > 5.32 > 2.66 > 0.9

3 > 2 > 1 > 0.84

 

Is 1.7 Marines with Variance be 2.

 

Intercessors

12 > 8 > 4 > 1.33

5 > 3.32 > 1.65 > 0.88

 

Looking at 2.2 Dead Marines with ability to have bad variance kill 2 Marines.

 

In general for melee looking at 0.5 difference of dead marines. So now what are we seeing here? Well what we are seeing is balanced math. But Cessors argueably still better.

 

So first both units have a preference of place to be. Or action to be taking more percisely. Cessors want to be using Punch while Tacticals want to be going blam blam. Meaning Cessors need move further and need more durability (tje extra wound in that case). Tacticals however want to not to use punch but go blam blam. HOWEVER

 

Tacticals also want to be in danger close when shooting (12) so while they need fo cross half of no mans land vs all of no man. They still need to be close and thus very glasscannony. Because while there shooting output is notably > Cessors. They need get close to be effective at it. Once we get into the Tactical +1 Units this is even trickier comparison (Grey Hunters, Chaos Space Marines and Crusader Squads). So save that for another time and another post further in thread.

 

But are Primaris PowerCreeping Firstborn? I’d say no. Are they better I’d say yes. Because while Firstborn have areas notably better in (see Shooting). Both ultimately want to be in Danger Close 12” to be effective. But Cessors have dbl the wound count.

 

Why is that not Power Creeping? But Tacticals are solid, they have a role and reason to be used. They are not that badly hamstring yourself have solid advantages a couple I didn’t go over. But espacially is that Primaris Cesssor combat efficiency drops far faster than Firstborn Squads due how their damage is deployed.

 

Well my 0.2 cent mathhammwr

[Captain Idaho]

I actually am quite impressed with how GW have made there a place for both Intercessors and Tactical Marines in lists. It was a thankless task of expectation and it actually works.

 

If you want your Troops choices to contribute to your firepower whilst performing all the rest of the Troops choice duties (like holding objectives, adding numbers to a situation or board control) then Tactical squads are your key.

 

If you want to get up close with opponents or just have a more survivable Troops choice, you'll go for Intercessors. These boys also contribute nicely to anti-infantry duties, though at a fairly low enough level to not elevate them unduly in an opponent's cross hairs.

 

The killing potential of Intercessors drops as each model is removed and multi damage weapons are their bane, wasting their main advantage over Tactical Marines. Tactical Marines stay rather dangerous up until the last model is removed due to the special and heavy weapons being the last models removed.

 

However, they do die rather easy once an opponent decides to remove them.

 

The 2 units also work very well side by side too.

[Medicinal Carrots]

For S4 shooting, Intercessors with auto bolt rifles are the winner. 60 points gives you 4 Tacticals with 4 or 8 shots vs 3 Intercessors with 9 shots.

 

For me, Tacticals serve one of two roles: pocket Dev squad with a 36-48" heavy weapon, or close range fire squad with combi and special/grav cannon.

 

For storming objectives, I like Intercessors with auto bolt rifles and a thunder hammer.

[Schlitzaf]

The three Tactical+ Squads:

Crusader Squads (Black Templars)

Grey Hunter Pack (Space Wolves)
Chaos Space Marine

 

I won't look at MSU configuration the same math I mentioned above applies here too more or less. I will note for chainswords I am assuming Astartes chainswords become universal now then Mathwise. As before 2 Firstborn = 1.5 Intercessors. So standard logic in regards overall ratio still applies on a the micro level. But on the Macro Level lets look. The basic presumption is around 200 points. Chaos Marines will have one featured setup. 200 Point is due to the idea that 2 Cessor Squads vs 1 Big Squad 

 

So 2 Cessor Squads are

20 Wounds (2 Sets of 10 Wounds), Up To 2 Melee Weapons then depending with flavor of cessor/Primaris troop a variety of shooty/melee options. Most cases is 40 Shots in Rapid, and 30 in Melee + Bonus Gear. Inflitrating Primaris won't have a -1 AP on there preferred weapon (Incursors and Infilitrators) but the 'standard' Cessor will (Rifle or Chain). So for 200 Points you are getting 

 

20 Attacks in Ideal Range generally at AP -1. So 5 points per an AP -1 Attack (Assault Cessors will have be 50 Attacks but they lack long range capacity)) 

Otherwise looking at 30 Attacks at AP -0, so 7 points per an AP 0 Attack.

 

A single marine dead to 9 Shots at BS 3+ AP - Attack. And one marine per 6 shots at BS 3+ AP -1

 

Vs Medium to Heavy Infantry 10 Cessor/Primaris depending on loadout and location, can be expected to kill/deal 10 Wounds to an MEQ Target. Vs Armour you need 12 AP - Strength 4 BS 3+ and 9 Boltrifle. So you can expect between 8ish wounds against Rhino Chassis. Now the Three Tactical+ Squads

 

Grey Hunters: Grey Hunter are best offensively nowadays. With Bolter&Chainsword. For 200 Points you can easily get 3 Specials, and either power weapons, plasma or more dudebros. So first with triple Plasma you are looking at Long 3 Long and 6 Short Shots. You can pretty reasonably to expect to 1 Kill MEQ at Long with Plasma and 3 in Short with Plasma (2.66 if not overcharge). 

 

After Plasma/Specials you are looking at either an 11th model, power weapons or plasma pistol. So Wound Count is once again rather cleanly in Cessor Favor almost double. Grey Hunters however with Bolter and Chain unlike the other two Tactical+ Squads don't lose offensive output in range or danger close. So in that sense they are very similar to cessor. In general you are looking at 3 Special Shots, 7-14 Bolters, and 30 AP -1 Strength 4 Bolter. In melee they are very comparable offensivelyo to a Cessor Ideal Position. At Long there Plasma is a one marine kill and in close same damage of full till 10 Cessors in Rapid Range. Before you take Bolters into Consideration.  You also can take a 'third' chapter tactic by using the Wolf Banner.

 

A Tactical Squad loses out here because Heavy/Special/Special and lack of Chainsword. Locks them into being a psuedo gunline type focus. Hunters however suffer from basically having half the wound. 

 

Crusader Squads: My boys in black. So the comparison here is a melee tide squad (a shooty tide squad is notably here at always being 12 man, 3 Cool Weapons and 9 Bolters so good obj holders but focus will be on Melee. Shooty Tide not as large a fan of). So unlike Wolves we want to likely be advancing so we won't have cool guns or specials. Maybe take two Power Weapons. So squad size looking as 13 Models. Roughly half is 4+ saves. In melee you have 5 power weapon attacks, 18 Strength 4 AP -1 attacks, and 15 Strength 4 AP - attacks. The 15 reroll 1's to hit. So equal to Rifle Cessors in Danger close + 15 Attacks from Neophytes. Then you 13 Pistol Attacks. So 28 attacks Strength AP -. So comparable amount. Once again less wounds by 7. 

 

The advantages here is Squad Size for Crusaders over Tacticals allow them to take Cheap Weapon or more specifically cheap weapon options AND having allowances for larger squad size unlike Tacticals. Also the Neophytes reroll ability means the Crusader Squad is less reliant needing a character to buff them for offensive output. If Grey Hunters vs Crusader Squads is basically difference of a couple wounds, the way your damage is given. Hunters will be mix of melee/shooty but alpha comes from there Plasma. While Crusaders are more over time damage, and less babysitting required with there Neophytes and can also soak wounds with Neo to keep 3+ saves for AP - Attacks. 

 

Here you take Crusader Squads to essentially fire and forget, they don't need buff characters for rerolls, they don't have 'scary' output just static but reasonable output. And because there danger close is 12' you can advance in early game without 'wasting' points.

 

Chaos Marines: So Chaos Marines have standard going up 10 man other two Tactical+ Variants have. Now what do Chaos Marines? First is they can double heavy. And are 14 points per 3+ Body. Means before we even get into anything else you are looking at a free body. At 200 Points. You can take our 10 Man squad of dudebros. Then something like 2 ChainCannons and Plasma on Sgt. Or Plasma-Plasma-Plasma. Or take Hvy/HvyBolter-Plasma. Or 2-3 Squads, Dbl Special, and otherwise.

 

If you didn't get it, your looking at for Chaos Marine Squads extensively versatility in loadout. The loyalist tacticals are hamstrung as always fire support/fire fighting or Plasma Caddies. A Chaos Marine Squad can something like. 13 Chaos Marines + 2 Heavy Bolters. Or my preference something like HvyBolter-Chain Gun, 2 Guys and a CombiBolter. At which point you can walk up board shooting 11 Shots AP 5 AP -1 or 2 Wounds on MEQ. Supporting 12-24 Bolter Shots at Strength 4 AP -0. Or instead go with Chainswords 34 Strength 4 AP -1! Or 45 AP -1 overall attacks. Comparable to Assault Cessor Squad. Pistols and First Round. 

 

Why are they better than Tacticals? Well Tacticals despite lore are very inflexible, always needing Boltgun and always Heavy/Special/Sgt means you basically cannot perform or take objectives you walk and shoot. And how that make them better than Cessors. Before we get into anything else, as with standard Primaris vs Firstborn your output degrades less fast than Primaris unit does. Secondly in melee you variance chance for explosion is much much higher with Death to False Emperor. Even argueably if you go BolterBros vs a Imperium Force, you'll still have a strong melee output capability vs a Tactical (Or Grey Hunter/Crusader Squad).

 

And finally unlike Crusader Squads your entire squad is 3+ saves so less hurt by AP -1 Attacks. And now in conclusion, where is our Tactical Squad here?

 

Well Tactical Squad has ultimately been garbage, one of the things for every edition has been how to avoid as marine player the tactical tax. And 200 points your basically looking, dbl Plasma and Heavy of choice. Which is not incomparable to the Grey Hunter squad but w/o melee output. Its similar to Chaos Marines but smaller size, w/o death, and has to be in danger close to optimal damage, and while offensively in range beats Melee Tide Crusaders, requires baby sitting with captains while a Crusader squad does not. 

 

The only thing Tacticals do have is Combat Squading and generally speaking more relavent non-chapter limited chapter tactics. Tacticals can combat squad to leave CoolWeapons to Babysit Backfield while 5 BolterBros walk up. So on and so forth. And well that my conclusion. As I said in first post.

 

Firstborn vs Primaris isn't a question of power creep, the squads are simply different. 

[Blindhamster]

how does your analysis look if we assume marines are 2 wounds base, same as primaris?

[Captain Idaho]

I actually don't agree that Tactical squads are poor right now. Their special and heavy weapons, particularly with Sergeant sporting something like a Combi or Storm Bolter for cheap, are crucial extra weapons whilst still filling up Troops slots. They give you board control with units that can still contribute their heavy weapon fire to the rest of your army.

[Tyberos the Red Wake]

I actually am quite impressed with how GW have made there a place for both Intercessors and Tactical Marines in lists. It was a thankless task of expectation and it actually works.

 

If you want your Troops choices to contribute to your firepower whilst performing all the rest of the Troops choice duties (like holding objectives, adding numbers to a situation or board control) then Tactical squads are your key.

 

If you want to get up close with opponents or just have a more survivable Troops choice, you'll go for Intercessors. These boys also contribute nicely to anti-infantry duties, though at a fairly low enough level to not elevate them unduly in an opponent's cross hairs.

 

The killing potential of Intercessors drops as each model is removed and multi damage weapons are their bane, wasting their main advantage over Tactical Marines. Tactical Marines stay rather dangerous up until the last model is removed due to the special and heavy weapons being the last models removed.

 

However, they do die rather easy once an opponent decides to remove them.

 

The 2 units also work very well side by side too.

 

Would this necessitate keeping Tactical Squads in larger squads of 6-10? Something that was rarely done in previous editions. Otherwise the wound/model advantage is lost with MSU or combat squads.

[Schlitzaf]

 

 

I actually am quite impressed with how GW have made there a place for both Intercessors and Tactical Marines in lists. It was a thankless task of expectation and it actually works.

 

If you want your Troops choices to contribute to your firepower whilst performing all the rest of the Troops choice duties (like holding objectives, adding numbers to a situation or board control) then Tactical squads are your key.

 

If you want to get up close with opponents or just have a more survivable Troops choice, you'll go for Intercessors. These boys also contribute nicely to anti-infantry duties, though at a fairly low enough level to not elevate them unduly in an opponent's cross hairs.

 

The killing potential of Intercessors drops as each model is removed and multi damage weapons are their bane, wasting their main advantage over Tactical Marines. Tactical Marines stay rather dangerous up until the last model is removed due to the special and heavy weapons being the last models removed.

 

However, they do die rather easy once an opponent decides to remove them.

 

The 2 units also work very well side by side too.

Would this necessitate keeping Tactical Squads in larger squads of 6-10? Something that was rarely done in previous editions. Otherwise the wound/model advantage is lost with MSU or combat squads.

Not exactly:

A 5 Man Intercessor taking 2 Wounds. Loses 1/5 of its Killing Potential

 

A 5 Man MSU Tactical Squad taking 2 wounds loses almost no damage output

[SanguinaryGuardsman]

I still don't see the point of loading up 15 point 1 wound models with expensive wargear you can have on more durable platforms.  

 

Until we start seeing tacticals in lists that win games at tournaments this all just chalkboard scribble.  Perhaps that has happened already?  If so, enlighten me! 

 

What if all marines are getting +1w so we have 2w tacticals, 3w intercessors/terminators, and 4w gravis?  That would really make a huge mess of things.

[SanguinaryGuardsman]

Oh

 

https://imgur.com/gallery/O0Web33

 

Now that is very interesting!

Edited August 13, 2020 by Marshal Mattias
correct swear filter

[Schlitzaf]

I still don't see the point of loading up 15 point 1 wound models with expensive wargear you can have on more durable platforms.

 

Until we start seeing tacticals in lists that win games at tournaments this all just chalkboard scribble. Perhaps that has happened already? If so, enlighten me!

 

What if all marines are getting +1w so we have 2w tacticals, 3w intercessors/terminators, and 4w gravis? That would really make a huge mess of things.

Its not a 15 point 1 Wound Platforms. Max Squad - (NonCoolWeapons + 1) wound Platform. The thing is with naked Chassis/1 Dude vs 1 Dude. Cessors win. But outside of Kill Team. We are talking Squad on Squad comparisons

[SanguinaryGuardsman]

 

I still don't see the point of loading up 15 point 1 wound models with expensive wargear you can have on more durable platforms.

 

Until we start seeing tacticals in lists that win games at tournaments this all just chalkboard scribble. Perhaps that has happened already? If so, enlighten me!

 

What if all marines are getting +1w so we have 2w tacticals, 3w intercessors/terminators, and 4w gravis? That would really make a huge mess of things.

Its not a 15 point 1 Wound Platforms. Max Squad - (NonCoolWeapons + 1) wound Platform. The thing is with naked Chassis/1 Dude vs 1 Dude. Cessors win. But outside of Kill Team. We are talking Squad on Squad comparisons

 

5 tacticals with a lascannon is a 5 wound platform?  I guess that makes sense.  

 

How does that measure up vs a dreadnought with twinlascannon?  

Seems like you are paying quite a bit more per lascannon shot for less wounds,toughness, mobility.  

 

Although now that we see vanguard vets going to 2w, it seems even more likely that tacticals will be 2w. ><

[Minsc]

5 tacticals with a lascannon is a 5 wound platform? I guess that makes sense.

 

How does that measure up vs a dreadnought with twinlascannon?

Seems like you are paying quite a bit more per lascannon shot for less wounds,toughness, mobility.

The same dread cant easily get a 2+ save in cover though, and it can potentially get oneshot by a meltagun or twoshot by most AT-weapons, and its not nearly as good as securing objectives.

 

Apples and oranges really, both units are different with different ups and downs.

[SanguinaryGuardsman]

 

5 tacticals with a lascannon is a 5 wound platform? I guess that makes sense.

 

How does that measure up vs a dreadnought with twinlascannon?

Seems like you are paying quite a bit more per lascannon shot for less wounds,toughness, mobility.

The same dread cant easily get a 2+ save in cover though, and it can potentially get oneshot by a meltagun or twoshot by most AT-weapons, and its not nearly as good as securing objectives.

 

Apples and oranges really, both units are different with different ups and downs.

 

Oranges are better than apples GODDAMMIT! 

 

So... 2w Vanguard Vets, are all our theories about 9th out the window?

[BLACK BLΠFLY]

+1 W could just be for Veterans though .

[SanguinaryGuardsman]

+1 W could just be for Veterans though .

That heavily implies +1w for Sanguinary Guard, Wulfen, Sternguard, and company vets.  Even if it is just terminators/VVs that is a really big shift.  As someone that plays mobile marine armies... VVs are an attractive possibility... if the points arent out of step that is.

[Guest Triszin]

I highly doubt chapter specific uniques would get +1 w.

 

3w wulfen would be a nightmare of nightmares for armies to dealwith

[Medicinal Carrots]

If Tacticals indeed go to 2W and get a consequent point cost bump, but Scouts don't, that brings Scouts back as the go to cheap detachment filler. If Scouts go up a wound and points too, I think they'll be even further outshown by 3+ save units.

 

I don't think an extra wound changes the roles all that much, but does make the choice a bit tighter. I think Intercessors will still be better for storming objectives, especially on foot, while Tacticals keep the role as heavy and special weapon platforms.

[BLACK BLΠFLY]

+1 W for vets would put them in line wif Bladeguard.

[Hymnblade]

90 points for a lascannon and 5 wounds is a pretty raw deal when you can take a Hunter for 95 points and get 11 wounds at t8 with a lascannon that rerolls misses, moves 12", and ignores heavy penalties. And Hunters aren't even very good! Tacticals can bring a little more firepower for the points, but nothing in the Troops slot has very good firepower for its points in the first place, so that isn't saying much. Troops are for clearing chaff and taking objectives, and Intercessors are better at both of those things.

 

 

+1 W could just be for Veterans though .

That heavily implies +1w for Sanguinary Guard, Wulfen, Sternguard, and company vets.  Even if it is just terminators/VVs that is a really big shift.  As someone that plays mobile marine armies... VVs are an attractive possibility... if the points arent out of step that is.

Sanguinary Guard and Wulfen arguably already had the +1W veteran buff, but we'll have to see. It looks like the squad of VVets I built earlier this year is going to see a lot more play in 9th!

[Captain Idaho]

If you're just talking about pure killhammer then yes a demi-squad of Tactical Marines with Lascannon and Combi-plasma (3rd edition staple no less) isn't going to compare as favourably as a Hunter for said platform.

 

However, if you're putting 400pts into your Troops selection, having the extra Lascannon and Heavy Bolters in units that are giving you more board control and coverage is a bargain.

 

9th edition is less about wiping the opponent out first than scoring the points first. You need to invest in utility and board control. You need to pay points for models to do these things. If you are paying points on models just hanging around scoring points and win games then great.

 

However, if you invest in a unit that can also provide some extra fire support to your army whilst it does so, then all the better.

 

As for 2 wound Tactical squads... it's speculative at this point but it would make Intercessors feel very much under pressure. I still don't think they'd be overshadowed by Tactical Marines, but have to be utilised differently. That's likely a different discussion however.

[Hymnblade]

Right, but a Hunter can sit on an objective while providing fire support just fine. You rarely need obsec in your own backfield, and if you do, there aren't a lot of things that would sneak back there but can't kill 5 MEQ.

[Schlitzaf]

A hunter cannot use punch. One of the most important facets of Tacticals (And its Tactical +1 Variants. And Intercessors) is walking up mid and using punch

[Hymnblade]

Vehicles can fire in melee.

 

I agree that storming midfield objectives and being decent in CC is one of the strengths of the Troop slot for marines. Intercessors are much better at it.

[Captain Idaho]

Right, but a Hunter can sit on an objective while providing fire support just fine. You rarely need obsec in your own backfield, and if you do, there aren't a lot of things that would sneak back there but can't kill 5 MEQ.

Yes, but a Hunter isn't a Troops choice and a crucial Heavy slot. 9th edition Battalions being the most likely choice for Marines players means you only have 3 Heavy Slots without paying more CPs.

 

So going back to my point, the Tactical Marines are there to provide that board control and objective camping whilst lending their firepower to the army.