Change to DttFE and Haarkon

[BrainFireBob]

Is he inching towards worthwhile?

 

He rerolls all to hit rolls- and 6's now do double hits.

[Dr_Ruminahui]

Don't have his rules in front of me, but if he is WS 3+ and has no other bonuses (such as prescience), rerolling attacks that already hit result in a statistical net loss of hits (as you are turning a hit into a 33% chance of 1 less hit, 50% of the same number of hits and a 17% chance of 1 extra hit).  If DttFE triggers on a 5 (either by having DttFE trigger on a 5 or having +1 to hit) then you have a statistically even number of hits by rerolling a hit (33% chance of 1 less hit, 33% chance of the same number of hits and 33% chance of 1 extra hit).

 

If he has WS 2+ with no other bonuses, rerolling attacks that hit result in no statistical change in the number of hits, as there is a 17% chance of getting one less hit (by rolling a 1) and a 17% chance of getting an extra hit (by rolling a 6).

 

Its only if you can get Death for the False Emperor to trigger on a 4+ with WS 3+ or 5+ with a WS 2+ (through a combination of bonuses to hit and/or expanding the range that DttFE triggers on) that you get a net statistical gain in hits by rerolling an attack that already hit.  I know there are ways you can go that with Black Legion, but I haven't explored how viable they might be as I've never played (either as or against) that legion.

 

So it does make him better as it DttFE now triggers an extra hit rather than an extra attack, and it is better against more enemies, but you have to work at it to make his "reroll attacks" statistically better than a lord's "reroll misses". 

 

Note, there will still likely be situations where Harken is better than a lord when the possibility of more wounds now is more valuable in terms of game outcome than the possibility of inflicting less - for example, where you want to kill an opposing model before it attacks back and you need more wounds than are statistically probable.

Edited November 10, 2021 by Dr_Ruminahui

[BrainFireBob]

He gives rerolls to hit to all raptors in 6".

 

With DttFE changed to giving an additional auto-hit on a 6. So every 6 is 2 hits.

 

He's a "can reroll". You don't reroll the initial 6's- you reroll to fish for sixes.

 

As I see it, without extra hits on sixes, each attack has a 2/3 chance of hitting- or an expected value of .66 hits/attack.

 

With 6's causing double hits, that's .33+.5- .83 hits- or an expected average of 0.83 hits/attack.

 

Rerolling the non 6's:

 

2 hits 1/6 of the time- expected value of 0.33 hits/attack

 

For the remaining 5/6:

 

Double hits: 5/6 *1/6 *2= an additional 5/18 hits from rerolling into sixes.

5/6 * 1/2= 5/12 hits from second-string hits

0 from the remainder.

 

So, per attack, I am seeing (1/3)+(5/18)+(5/12) expected hits *per attack* on average, rerolling non 6s. That's 37/36 hits per attack on average- or that you'll average one hit per attack with the reroll.

 

Seems pretty solid on raptors to me. It's that change from additional attacks to the rerolls giving you that doubled hit

 

Even better with Slaanesh

Edited November 10, 2021 by BrainFireBob

[BrainFireBob]

Ran some numbers. Looks to me like Icon of Excess Raptors with Haarkon now generate as many hits as Chainaxe berzerkers.

 

But they're faster.

 

I might try him now