Do you think Games Workshop profits will reduce this year?

[Arkhanist]

To contrast, Retail i.e. Warhammer Stores account for nearly half of GW's operating expenses.  The electricity bills for the 500+ Warhammer Stores around the world might well ironically be where they really feel the brunt of this issue.  You guys noticing your electric bills going up yet?

 

This is going to hurt GW a *lot* in the UK and the EU in particular. In the UK, the 'variable tariff' cap goes up *54%* From April 1st. Traditionally, variable 'off contract' pricing was one of the most expensive tariffs, while fixed contracts for 12 months or longer were significantly cheaper, so the energy regulator was given the power to cap consumer variable rates a while back. Over the last winter, 25 energy suppliers went bust due to wholesale natural gas prices going up 250% from start of 2021, and the cap meant they couldn't charge more for variable (or fixed rates). The cap is reviewed every 6 months, hence it rising 54% now, from ~£1270 to just under £2000 for a 'typical' household - this was actually calculated in Feb, i.e. prior to current world events too. Fixed-rate contracts are a terrible deal right now, as they're often 50% higher again, and have been for months. The expectation is that the cap will go up in October at least as much again, if not more.

 

Also, due to the way the energy market works (electricity being fungible) the unit price is that of the most expensive to produce, currently natural gas plants, and based on international oil/gas prices; so unless you personally have solar panels and a battery bank, the renewables vs fossil mix or how much oil comes from local production makes very little difference to the end cost. (The companies that are making absolute bank are the energy producers, as they're selling the same supplies for significantly higher prices for no extra effort on their part.)

 

Notably UK businesses do not get the capped rates, so have to pay the full market rate - they're already paying significantly more than households currently, and the expectation is that that will go even higher over the year, quite possibly more so than domestic supply. The cost of diesel for trucks to *stock* retail stores is also skyrocketing, so another hit there. Retail running costs for heating and lighting and fuel could well have doubled or more (compared to last autumn) by autumn 2022.

 

The EU is in a very similar boat, but with even greater exposure to what's happening to the east given the percentage of their energy (particularly natural gas) that comes from thataway. For example, diesel is $8.50 a gallon in France right now.

 

Personally - between energy, NI tax, council tax, food prices and other rising costs (while my pay is frozen this year), our non-essentials budget has more than halved between January and April. October will likely wipe it out altogether, and we're a two-income ordinary middle class family in an ordinary 4 bed house. My GW and hobby spend has unsurprisingly gone right down to 0 for the forseeable future, and I've no idea when or if it will become available again.

 

I think GW is going to find themselves in an awkward spot of falling demand and substantially rising costs. It will be interesting to see if they double down on recent price rises to offset their higher costs and accept a shrinking customer base ala the 2000's, or accept smaller profits by allowing prices to stay static for a while or even fall but keep a broader range of customers from giving up on the hobby altogether.

Edited March 16, 2022 by Arkhanist

[Captain Idaho]

Inherently these topics talk about THE REAL WORLD (oooo) as a necessity, which is generally loosely within our mission statement. Whilst it is certainly relevant to discuss whether we think Games Workshop are going to be successful, it's speculative really, we don't know whether GW will zig or zag and we generally veer off into stuff like wider energy problems, Australian stores and whether we like the marketing or not.

 

It's natural and understandable to go off into these subjects simply because the discussion is speculation by nature and quite broad by definition.

 

As such, I'm closing this topic down as I think it has been as useful as a board appropriate conversation it can be.

Edited March 17, 2022 by Captain Idaho