N1SB Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 (edited) Hi Fratres. Y'all seen what I'm about to post, but in case our fellow Brother Salabean hasn't, this will be very useful. To pair with an explanation: Recent economic events worldwide HAS and WILL affect Games Workshop's Revenue and Operating Profit LESS than the simple fact that there isn't a new edition of Warhammer 40,000 or Age of Sigmar planned for 2022. This will be way more obvious to Hobbyists like you, Henry Caville and me than business news on TV. +++ GW's Overall Pattern For Growth +++ I'm showing actual Revenue i.e. Income and Operative Profit i.e. Earnings of GW, with my forecast (I'm always off by about £5 million with GW...which is pretty bad for me, but there are No Wolves On Fenris i.e. don't it too seriously). Their fiscal year starts in June. I'll recap GW's performance history as a publicly listed company now. Edit - I made forecast before recent events. That'll trend the direction down some. Ever since GW became GW as we now know it, for decades it hovered at £120m Revenue and a couple million Operating Profit (despite regular price increases on its products, so you know the customer base was gradually shrinking). That was the old pattern. New leadership gradually phased out the old in the early two-thousand-teens and around 2016 things started SKYROCKETING, breaking the old pattern. Now there's a new pattern: A new edition of 40k comes out in the summer, GW grows like crazy A new edition of AoS comes out the next summer, GW grows a little bit No new edition comes out the summer after that, GW levels off...until a new 40k comes out again, the cycle repeats Thus, GW having 2 main flagship products that have 3-year product life cycles is actually the thing that really determines its growth...at the moment. It'll probably have a less-good (but still amazing compared to a decade before) year than usual, and it IS affected by recent economic conditions, but less than others may think. Everyone in the Hobby, you, me, Henry Caville, will understand that, probably better than the business press will, when they talk about it in about 4 month's time. Edit for this TL;DR - you will hear these business analysts on paid news channels talking about how GW was impacted by this, that and the other (Brexit, Covid, Russia...maybe Graham Norton). They won't be wrong. What they'll miss is it's not a new 40k edition year because it's hard to explain in the soundbites in which they operate in, and that GW always has a LEVELING OFF when it's not a new 40k year. +++ But to Brother Salabean's Needs +++ Personally I left the hobby last year and have been thinking about coming back but I’m not going to be able to as soon as I want due to the extra £40 a month I’m paying for electric as it is. You know your financial situation best, Brother. The only thing I ask is this: would you be more interested in 30k than 40k? The new Horus Heresy/Age of Darkness game has been leaked intentionally or not. Looking at GW's trends, imho they are releasing it in calendar year 2022. The question I have...and until someone leaks to our own Brother Valrak or whatever is, are they releasing it in the summer or around Christmas? Here's why I ask: If GW releases 30k in the summer, it suggests GW sees it as a 3rd flagship product, after 40k and AoS If GW releases 30k closer to Christmas, it suggests GW still see it as just a Specialist Game-like side gig I haven't been talking much, but I've been wondering. I'm actually a marketing guy that came from a finance background. This is a matter of positioning, it's one of those subtle but very significant little things. I'm trying to account for my own bias that I really want plastic Mk VIs...it's like 1st ed Rogue Trader again, I'm coming home. Edited March 16, 2022 by N1SB Petitioner's City, andes, Joe and 5 others 8 Back to top Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/373561-do-you-think-games-workshop-profits-will-reduce-this-year/page/2/#findComment-5804592 Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaVolt87 Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 (edited) @MegaVolt GW Retail locations don't have to turn a profit* for the same reason that an Apple store doesn't need to. They exist primarily as a marketing exercise and they get new people into the hobby. As long as a particular location is getting enough footfall and selling enough "core game" boxes they'll keep them on. *Obviously there's a "reasonable margin" that an individual store has to stay within. But that is determined by other factors too, so the stores in large shopping centres in the UK for example have much greater leeway than a tertiary location store in a small town. Rik GW isn't apple, so their stores are an inefficient way to market at this point. Merely investing in its film/animations, videogames etc is enough to do the same thing at a more efficient cost to joe public. While I am not a shareholder I am sure I am not the only one to notice GW retail as a money pit, more so now with the leadership change which is an opportunity to raise the issue + change it etc. Like I said, the model should change in some way, its just not a modern model as its being run now with GW stores. It can be done better. Edited March 15, 2022 by MegaVolt87 N1SB 1 Back to top Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/373561-do-you-think-games-workshop-profits-will-reduce-this-year/page/2/#findComment-5804597 Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapter master 454 Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 I mean, it depends how well the releases do? I mean Eldritch Omens appears to not be too popular though that could be put to the fact that only the eldar benefit from it really, and not the other massive section of the consumers who are chaos (Xenos are lumped together for reason while Chaos gets its own niche, while Space marines further their own with imperium as well). At the risk of taking a brief melta to the faceplate, I would also further echo one sentiment: Wages lagging behind. Basically money needs to flow to grow anything and when one part of their cycle is disrupted to causes issues down the line. After all, a consumer base with money tends to spend more. However that is a sort of strange prisoner game problem where all companies need to chip in at their own cost to benefit the others to ensure they all continue to prosper but if one doesn't then it doesn't suffer directly and yadda yadda, if you want to know more look up the Prisoner Dilemma/game. Interesting but trite at this point. The main point being made here is that companies (all of them) continue to up their prices in accordance with inflation and other factors but yet don't do the same for wages. In a vacuum that makes sense but nothing exists in such a space and thus what they create is a bubble where at some point, things will burst and everything comes tumbling down. GW are even known for keeping their staff on rather meagre wages as far as allegations go, which is a trend for near all companies (if not all). I mean, maybe tragedy of the commons is better suited to this but really I almost want to say that perhaps...it isn't one companies fault but yet their all take the blame for the rather tenebrous state we are in now (other events not withstanding). Will they take a hit? Well if they were expecting big profits this year yeah, they are now going to be losing pretty big in that regard on their projections. But calling it losing when you are still turning profits is like calling a 100-0 game that is suddenly a 65-50 a loss. You won. So...define loss? I mean the tipping point is when we see that ye olde profit margin start to shrink and/or profits dip. Arkhanist 1 Back to top Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/373561-do-you-think-games-workshop-profits-will-reduce-this-year/page/2/#findComment-5804617 Share on other sites More sharing options...
MithrilForge Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 @MegaVolt GW Retail locations don't have to turn a profit* for the same reason that an Apple store doesn't need to. They exist primarily as a marketing exercise and they get new people into the hobby. As long as a particular location is getting enough footfall and selling enough "core game" boxes they'll keep them on. *Obviously there's a "reasonable margin" that an individual store has to stay within. But that is determined by other factors too, so the stores in large shopping centres in the UK for example have much greater leeway than a tertiary location store in a small town. Rik Also, from my limited Knowledge, most of the Aussie stores have been moved out of shopping centres and put into "Much Cheaper" store area's so I'm guessing they actually get a whole lot less foot traffic in them here in Oz !!! For example - where i live in Melbourne, the flagship store was in Chadstone shopping centre (Probably "The" MEGA Shopping Precinct of Melbourne ) but got moved approx 2 suburbs away to a pokey place called "Oakleigh"... down the bottom end of one of the main streets... i very much doubt it's getting the attention it used to get when it was in the Mega space it had before... Mithril MegaVolt87 1 Back to top Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/373561-do-you-think-games-workshop-profits-will-reduce-this-year/page/2/#findComment-5804618 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Firedrake Cordova Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 (edited) Also, from my limited Knowledge, most of the Aussie stores have been moved out of shopping centres and put into "Much Cheaper" store area's so I'm guessing they actually get a whole lot less foot traffic in them here in Oz !!! The same is the case where I am in the UK, due to the ridiculous rents and business rates shopping centre units attract - the stores tend to be relatively small (one of my local stores and the other), and near to but not in shopping centres. I think the thing is people generally aren't going to go into a GW "by accident" (they'll be intending to go there, rather than walk past it and wander in out of curiosity) so the purpose the store serves is more for hobby assistance and advice (i.e. giving people who are unsure the opportunity to see and handle the models in the flesh, have an introduction to how the games are played, introduction to painting, on-going painting lessons, etc). Edited March 15, 2022 by Firedrake Cordova Domhnall and Halandaar 2 Back to top Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/373561-do-you-think-games-workshop-profits-will-reduce-this-year/page/2/#findComment-5804640 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Petitioner's City Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 (edited) Also, from my limited Knowledge, most of the Aussie stores have been moved out of shopping centres and put into "Much Cheaper" store area's so I'm guessing they actually get a whole lot less foot traffic in them here in Oz !!! The same is the case where I am in the UK, due to the ridiculous rents and business rates shopping centre units attract - the stores tend to be relatively small (one of my local stores and the other), and near to but not in shopping centres. I think the thing is people generally aren't going to go into a GW "by accident" (they'll be intending to go there, rather than walk past it and wander in out of curiosity) so the purpose the store serves is more for hobby assistance and advice (i.e. giving people who are unsure the opportunity to see and handle the models in the flesh, have an introduction to how the games are played, introduction to painting, on-going painting lessons, etc). Thanks for sharing these, they make me think of the Glasgow and Edinburgh stores which actually are in good (and in the case of Edinburgh, premier) city centre space. But the interiors are so very similar. I think my issue with the stores is they are not designed spaces, nor are they even comfortable. They feel deeply uncomfortable in terms of wall coverage, carpeting and the like - they are closets packed with noisy stuff, when they could - following Apple, Aesop, etc - be attractive, welcoming, warm spaces which use well the environment and create something you want to spend time in. See his on Aesop, for example, or some of the articles on Dezeen for spaces you'd genuinely want to spend time in. As you can see, many premier retailers make good spaces with an excellent sense of space, providing amenities that retain customers and are welcoming to new ones - but GW stores (the stores of a luxury business if not luxury bran) do not feel comfortable. That's not the staff's fault, that is the lack of any sense of arrangement, colour theory, emptiness, of taste or design. Of course many game shops do not this either - but many I've been to do (be it game cafes or game shops) and I wish GW followed the lead more of placemaking done by really successful brands. Of course, GW's spaces are small, but if there were also convenience aspects - good coffee, good seating space (good for parents too!), toilets and baby rooms, light, empty walls, plants, soft lights, etc - they could be much better as hospitality spaces & thus community spaces. Instead those small, mashed up, harshly lit, claustraphobic and undesigned caves - I never want to spend more than two minutes in them, no matter how nice the staff. They are also art spaces, but they do not feel like spaces in which art is made. Of course I realise this reads like I want to gentrify or aesop-ify or dezeen-ify or Waterstones-ify GW - but I think the shops are ugly misbegotten spaces, which say nothing of art, community or good place. And I'd imagine if they did become less cave-esque, they would actually maybe become significantly warmer and more hospitable places - something which fits into wider changes in town centre use and the shift towards a hospitality/mixed use sustainability. Edited March 15, 2022 by Petitioner's City MithrilForge, MegaVolt87, N1SB and 2 others 5 Back to top Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/373561-do-you-think-games-workshop-profits-will-reduce-this-year/page/2/#findComment-5804645 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord_Ikka Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 In the sense of "will their profits be less than last year", yeah, I'm pretty sure that they will be. Lots of factors right now contributing to a decline in consumer confidence and spending- Brexit still hurting the UK's import/export issues, the EU/world's issues with Russia which is increasing the price of oil in all markets (even those that don't have considerable Russian oil imports), increased inflation in the US, hikes in rent without corresponding increases in wages, etc... all of this has effected the global markets so that GW making less is pretty much a given. Historically, GW reacts to increased costs such as material price hikes and wage increases by increasing the price of their products. That doesn't sit well with many of the players/consumers, regardless of whether the increase is reasonable (i.e.- in line with the increased costs) or not- and due to past comments/actions by GW corporate (mainly lead by former CEO Tom Kirby), many in the player base view GW corporate as fairly...greedy I would say. So whether or not GW actually needs to increase prices to combat a volatile market, a segment of the player population will regard any increased prices as just a push for more profit as the expense of the fans. As far as whether you should get back in, that's all about your own financial situation. I decided to go the route of the Imperium magazine subscription, as it gives me two armies for a steady monthly price, rather than my former practice of randomly priced monthly purchases (makes the wife much happier...). Personally, I wouldn't advise anyone I know to get into 40k unless they were willing to spend roughly $500 on an army/accessories, it's just a very high bar as far as price goes for a miniatures game. To compare, I picked up 2 boxes of Perry Historical miniatures for $60, which gives me 70-ish models to convert into a Turnip28 couple of armies (for me its a modeling/painting project, not looking to pick up new games). That game (or others like Sludge/Weald) have free or low-cost rules and don't have the GW price for miniatures. I would even suggest X-wing, though the price has gone up for that as well, as a lower-cost game to play rather than 40k and with pre-painted minis you don't have to add the cost of hobby supplies. If you are looking for a GW game to play, either Warcry or Necromunda would probably be the cheapest entry point- 40 or so for a starter gang plus the cost of the rulebook. havlar and Firedrake Cordova 2 Back to top Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/373561-do-you-think-games-workshop-profits-will-reduce-this-year/page/2/#findComment-5804649 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xenith Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 GW isn't apple, so their stores are an inefficient way to market at this point. Correct, GW was decades ahead of Apple in selling the consumer a store 'experience' instead of a place to just buy stuff and leave. We see increasingly that 'experiences' are better than shops, and moreso after 2 years of limited social contact. GW's stores *are* marketing, and they work. Joe, N1SB and Noserenda 3 Back to top Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/373561-do-you-think-games-workshop-profits-will-reduce-this-year/page/2/#findComment-5804651 Share on other sites More sharing options...
N1SB Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 Brother Volt, Brother Rikstar, you need not debate this...because both of you are right on the larger point, you only disagree on the issue of exactly how fast things are changing. I was looking at the the 2021 annual report (to double-check something to do with petrol/gas prices actually), and I found a detail I didn't look at before. Warhammer Stores, what Games Workshop describes as "Retail", has been a key component in GW's marketing engine. GW doesn't have a normal advertising budget like most marketing does. Warhammer Stores, White Dwarf Magazine, even licensed games where people learn about Warhammer from video games like Total War, are the equivalent of GW's advertising. This non-advertising strategy IS still probably more cost-effective for them than traditional advertising (like TV ads or even YouTube ads)...the only question is, is it cheaper than GW producing viral videos of its own and trying to hype it up on the Internet, like that recent Armouring of a Space Marine thing? Obviously, Covid is causing everyone with a retail business to seriously recalculate. GW is no exception. (Also, I absolutely think Warhammer Stores are at least conceptually comparable 1-man Apple Stores in that they're spaces where they provide tables for you to play with their products, even their own "Geniuses" to provide post-sale support, but I also agree GW is NOT Apple because IF you knew how much Apple spends on advertising. Apple outspent Microsoft in a region, with an advertising for the iPad Mini that was 8x times what Windows 8 spent on ads. It was insane.) Here's the thing I didn't look at until now, and remember it wasn't even to prove or disprove your points: for the 1st time in a long time, GW has decreased its overall Operating Expenses in Retail i.e. it might be cutting down on Warhammer Stores. Let's watch whether this was a one-off or a sea change. GW's always opening and closing stores, but last year they had a net-negative i.e. they closed more than they opened. This change in direction could be a one-off as an understandable reaction to Covid. It'd be very interesting, about 4 months from now, to see if they're continuing to do this. Retail i.e. Warhammer Stores remains the biggest part of GW's costs, but for the 1st time, it's shrinking +++ What I Was Actually Researching +++ Omnissiah...this is so boring now in comparison...but I did the legwork, might as well make my point. Gas/petrol prices, you hearing about that in the news? More likely, you don't have to, because you already see it when you go to the gas station. No geopolitics here, but one may ask, how does this affect GW? GW sells miniatures, produced by its mold injection machines. You feed the mold injection machines plastic and electricity, out comes miniatures, ????, profit. Plastic is made from fossil fuels, electricity costs are impacted by other fuel prices, how does it affect GW? The funny point I was going to make is that the entire operating expenses i.e. running costs of GW for its miniatures-making magic workshop is LESS than 2%. So the increased costs of plastic and electricity to run its plants is going to be some factor of just 2% of GW. That's not where it'll hurt GW the most. To contrast, Retail i.e. Warhammer Stores account for nearly half of GW's operating expenses. The electricity bills for the 500+ Warhammer Stores around the world might well ironically be where they really feel the brunt of this issue. You guys noticing your electric bills going up yet? But anyway, this turns out to be far less interesting than how GW may be starting to scale down its Warhammer Stores operations. A strategic change in direction. Trokair, Kenzaburo, Joe and 7 others 10 Back to top Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/373561-do-you-think-games-workshop-profits-will-reduce-this-year/page/2/#findComment-5804654 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Halandaar Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 The same is the case where I am in the UK, due to the ridiculous rents and business rates shopping centre units attract - the stores tend to be relatively small (one of my local stores and the other), and near to but not in shopping centres. I think the thing is people generally aren't going to go into a GW "by accident" (they'll be intending to go there, rather than walk past it and wander in out of curiosity) so the purpose the store serves is more for hobby assistance and advice (i.e. giving people who are unsure the opportunity to see and handle the models in the flesh, have an introduction to how the games are played, introduction to painting, on-going painting lessons, etc). Yeah, my own anecdotal experiences of several UK Warhammer stores is that they tend to be near to (but not actually in) prime retail real-estate in town & city centres. They're destinations for people to seek out down sidestreets adjacent to the main shopping areas, rather than places that have a high natural footfall, which makes me think they're less of a marketing thing than we might imagine and more of a "service station" for hobbyists - how many times have you dashed in to your local to grab some paint when you otherwise would just place orders online? They can still operate at break-even or even slightly lossmaking because GW doens't really have anywhere else to spend a traditional marketing budget (unless trying to develop viral video content is a direction they're going to pursue long-term) Firedrake Cordova and Joe 2 Back to top Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/373561-do-you-think-games-workshop-profits-will-reduce-this-year/page/2/#findComment-5804659 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Shepherd Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 GW stores are also sometimes very popular to have orders delivered to, and that saves them a lot of money I can see GW shifting to more plain packaging for mail order and possibly more exclusive/GW only releases. We may also see the return of fomo or the pre order promise going, as intimated by the half year report In hindsight the pre order promise was probably if we got numbers wrong we are taking them from trade accounts instead If theyre smart theyll do more value bundles as they sell and probably entice people into spending more Firedrake Cordova 1 Back to top Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/373561-do-you-think-games-workshop-profits-will-reduce-this-year/page/2/#findComment-5804663 Share on other sites More sharing options...
techsoldaten Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 Retail i.e. Warhammer Stores remains the biggest part of GW's costs, but for the 1st time, it's shrinking Thank you for taking the time to do this. Great chart. Dark Shepherd and N1SB 2 Back to top Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/373561-do-you-think-games-workshop-profits-will-reduce-this-year/page/2/#findComment-5804674 Share on other sites More sharing options...
techsoldaten Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 Edit for this TL;DR - you will hear these business analysts on paid news channels talking about how GW was impacted by this, that and the other (Brexit, Covid, Russia...maybe Graham Norton). They won't be wrong. What they'll miss is it's not a new 40k edition year because it's hard to explain in the soundbites in which they operate in, and that GW always has a downturn when it's not a new 40k year. Analysts tend not to dive deep into the business practices of GW PLC. They seem focused on stock price, revenue and the fact the company pays dividends. So no surprise. But I'd challenge the assertion new Editions are tied closely to increased margins. There's a chart on page 8 of the annual report that demonstrates growth since 2012, the last 4 years were the most dynamic. I don't think we've had a new edition each of those years. : ) N1SB 1 Back to top Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/373561-do-you-think-games-workshop-profits-will-reduce-this-year/page/2/#findComment-5804678 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Firedrake Cordova Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 for the 1st time in a long time, GW has decreased its overall Operating Expenses in Retail i.e. it might be cutting down on Warhammer Stores. Let's watch whether this was a one-off or a sea change. So, dumb question - would that take into account furlough payments? (I think GW were reported to have topped up the 80% government contribution so their staff were paid in full, but if they were receiving government assistance on the wages, that might help explain the reduction in expenditure?) You guys noticing your electric bills going up yet? Significantly! (as in doubling for my residential bills) For the benefit of those outside the UK, for consumers there's a cap on the per-unit charge for each of gas and electricity, and both of those have gone up; charges for non-domestic customers are not subject to "capping". I think my issue with the stores is they are not designed spaces, nor are they even comfortable. They feel deeply uncomfortable in terms of wall coverage ... but if there were also convenience aspects - good coffee, good seating space (good for parents too!), toilets and baby rooms, light, empty walls, plants Honestly, I'm not sure there's a good answer - most of the local retail units are of roughly the same size (obviously this will vary by region), and if GW want to have their stores keep a reasonable amount of the range in stock (which is already too large for them to fully stock), then I'm not sure what the answer is. The units in the shopping centre are larger (the Lego shop is maybe 30-50% wider and double the length, and is probably more in line with what you're looking for), but the rent and business rates are literally orders of magnitude greater, which makes them unaffordable. On the subject of facilities, I honestly can't remember the last time I saw a retail premises that had a publicly-accessible toilet (other than John Lewis) - I think most shops in the area don't even have staff toilets or kitchen facilities. N1SB and Petitioner's City 2 Back to top Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/373561-do-you-think-games-workshop-profits-will-reduce-this-year/page/2/#findComment-5804679 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noserenda Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 Having run a hobby store, the rent changes from moving even slightly out of city centre can be mind blowing.Having worked in a GW store, you really dont want to make it too "comfortable" for various reasons its not ideal to have people hanging out in the store all the time, and then theres the ground rent thing again, comfy chairs or whatever either means more rent or less stock/tables which are the primary purpose of the place after all. Coffee et al are their own whole set of complications that probably arent worth the expense for what GW is aiming for, they arent following a LGS model that wants you to hang around spending money all day after all. Son of Sacrifice, Rik Lightstar, Petitioner's City and 2 others 5 Back to top Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/373561-do-you-think-games-workshop-profits-will-reduce-this-year/page/2/#findComment-5804682 Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaVolt87 Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 Having run a hobby store, the rent changes from moving even slightly out of city centre can be mind blowing. Having worked in a GW store, you really dont want to make it too "comfortable" for various reasons its not ideal to have people hanging out in the store all the time, and then theres the ground rent thing again, comfy chairs or whatever either means more rent or less stock/tables which are the primary purpose of the place after all. Coffee et al are their own whole set of complications that probably arent worth the expense for what GW is aiming for, they arent following a LGS model that wants you to hang around spending money all day after all. Whatever happened to those Warhammer cafe they announced a while back? It seemed more would show up at some point. Petitioner's City 1 Back to top Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/373561-do-you-think-games-workshop-profits-will-reduce-this-year/page/2/#findComment-5804688 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Petitioner's City Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 Having run a hobby store, the rent changes from moving even slightly out of city centre can be mind blowing. Having worked in a GW store, you really dont want to make it too "comfortable" for various reasons its not ideal to have people hanging out in the store all the time, and then theres the ground rent thing again, comfy chairs or whatever either means more rent or less stock/tables which are the primary purpose of the place after all. Coffee et al are their own whole set of complications that probably arent worth the expense for what GW is aiming for, they arent following a LGS model that wants you to hang around spending money all day after all. These are fair points, but I think overall I realise they aren't what I'd want from a GW store as a whole - or as an experience. If there was that experience value, I think it would maybe make it easier to justify spending time in a store rather than going elsewhere (where it may be cheaper or there are better amenities, or just overall a much nicer space). I do like the sound of the Warhammer Cafe, but I really hope it is done with good best practice inspiration and - again - good design/taste. Noserenda and Firedrake Cordova 2 Back to top Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/373561-do-you-think-games-workshop-profits-will-reduce-this-year/page/2/#findComment-5804699 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Special Officer Doofy Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 I highly doubt GW is dumb enough to kill their own company and make models that degrade as soon as 5 years (or at all). Noserenda, WrathOfTheLion, Inquisitor Eisenhorn and 1 other 4 Back to top Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/373561-do-you-think-games-workshop-profits-will-reduce-this-year/page/2/#findComment-5804703 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noserenda Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 Having run a hobby store, the rent changes from moving even slightly out of city centre can be mind blowing. Having worked in a GW store, you really dont want to make it too "comfortable" for various reasons its not ideal to have people hanging out in the store all the time, and then theres the ground rent thing again, comfy chairs or whatever either means more rent or less stock/tables which are the primary purpose of the place after all. Coffee et al are their own whole set of complications that probably arent worth the expense for what GW is aiming for, they arent following a LGS model that wants you to hang around spending money all day after all. These are fair points, but I think overall I realise they aren't what I'd want from a GW store as a whole - or as an experience. If there was that experience value, I think it would maybe make it easier to justify spending time in a store rather than going elsewhere (where it may be cheaper or there are better amenities, or just overall a much nicer space). I do like the sound of the Warhammer Cafe, but I really hope it is done with good best practice inspiration and - again - good design/taste. Oh yeah, me either these days, but it was great as a nerdy teen and sometimes awkward young adult :D Generally (Though this may have changed over the years) they aim to help out new-ish folks get started gaming or painting and do a bit of support for others but ultimately the idea is to get folks self sufficient, or on to local clubs that can support the habit :D As an old grog i just pop in from time to time to grab something i need quickly or isnt widely available and chat to folks i know there still. Firedrake Cordova and Petitioner's City 2 Back to top Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/373561-do-you-think-games-workshop-profits-will-reduce-this-year/page/2/#findComment-5804736 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redcomet Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 The prices of basic living items is going up, so yes, there will be less money for luxury hobbies Petitioner's City, Inquisitor Eisenhorn and Firedrake Cordova 3 Back to top Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/373561-do-you-think-games-workshop-profits-will-reduce-this-year/page/2/#findComment-5804768 Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaVolt87 Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 (edited) The prices of basic living items is going up, so yes, there will be less money for luxury hobbies Also unfortunately for GW, other luxury hobbies have likely come up with better business strategies than hurr durr raise prices to maintain revenue. Edited March 15, 2022 by MegaVolt87 darkhorse0607, Inquisitor Eisenhorn and Special Officer Doofy 3 Back to top Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/373561-do-you-think-games-workshop-profits-will-reduce-this-year/page/2/#findComment-5804874 Share on other sites More sharing options...
N1SB Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 Analysts tend not to dive deep into the business practices of GW PLC. They seem focused on stock price, revenue and the fact the company pays dividends. So no surprise. But I'd challenge the assertion new Editions are tied closely to increased margins. There's a chart on page 8 of the annual report that demonstrates growth since 2012, the last 4 years were the most dynamic. I don't think we've had a new edition each of those years. : ) You're right, I saw the Dividends chart, I hear what you're saying, I should've just said LEVELING OFF of Revenue, instead of downturn (that was the term I used). Growth is directly related to 40k. Margins...tbh GW just can control that by raising prices, which is what they do, so I don't even disagree. So, dumb question - would that take into account furlough payments? (I think GW were reported to have topped up the 80% government contribution so their staff were paid in full, but if they were receiving government assistance on the wages, that might help explain the reduction in expenditure?) Not dumb, very smart. Because GW comments on this from last year's annual report. In line with our earlier announcement regarding repayment of furlough support and other government subsidies, we have cancelled the UK expanded business rates retail discount scheme for 2020/21. We made no claims for financial support or subsidies from governments during the period. Real talk, I've operated in the UK but no now, and I've been keeping in touch with a friend whose a small business moved from the UK, whose father still runs a small business in the UK, as well as listening to our Frateri here who also run small businesses in the UK. It made business sense from even the start for GW to turn down government aid, because you had to show to the government how much your business suffered directly from, say, a pandemic lockdown. If you're a restaurant and you're told to close certain months, you pretty much knew exactly how much you were losing, because you get £0.00 income and still got to pay salaries, rent, etc. If you're GW and you were closing all Warhammer Stores in the UK, but you're also launch 9th ed 40k...you're not so sure you're going to lose money. So GW just quite smartly back-of-napkin maths'd it and said, "Welp...we don't really qualify, let's not even bother applying." GW might also have had actual altruistic intentions, like leaving government aid to those who needed it, which is actually the moral thing to do...but shareholders don't care about that. Having run a hobby store, the rent changes from moving even slightly out of city centre can be mind blowing. Having worked in a GW store, you really dont want to make it too "comfortable" for various reasons its not ideal to have people hanging out in the store all the time, and then theres the ground rent thing again, comfy chairs or whatever either means more rent or less stock/tables which are the primary purpose of the place after all. Coffee et al are their own whole set of complications that probably arent worth the expense for what GW is aiming for, they arent following a LGS model that wants you to hang around spending money all day after all. Listen to Brother Noserenda and others who know the real lay of the land. They're the people who really know what's up. This is peak insight. Trokair, Joe, Daimyo-Phaeron Lenoch and 2 others 5 Back to top Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/373561-do-you-think-games-workshop-profits-will-reduce-this-year/page/2/#findComment-5804919 Share on other sites More sharing options...
armarnis Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 i hope they use the sinking profits as a reason to reign in their stupidly over the top marketing a little bit :P Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/373561-do-you-think-games-workshop-profits-will-reduce-this-year/page/2/#findComment-5804934 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karhedron Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 i hope they use the sinking profits as a reason to reign in their stupidly over the top marketing a little bit I quite enjoy the marketing, even if it is silly. It it rather like the over-the-topness of GrimDark. Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/373561-do-you-think-games-workshop-profits-will-reduce-this-year/page/2/#findComment-5804966 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Shepherd Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 (edited) GW is a slow ship to turn around. This might be the wrong example but look how long it took them to go back to multiple loadout options for new character models. I hope to heck theyve realised they now actually need to switch to a more carrott based business model than the previous stick based. But that could be medium term before it changes. Sadly price increases are the one thing they can do fairly quickly Maybe we'll get more Primarchs now Edited March 16, 2022 by Dark Shepherd Link to comment https://bolterandchainsword.com/topic/373561-do-you-think-games-workshop-profits-will-reduce-this-year/page/2/#findComment-5805022 Share on other sites More sharing options...
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