Rumours on why certain specific, in demand models are unavailable?

[Halandaar]

On 4/20/2023 at 2:02 AM, Bung said:

Well, the one time they didnt plan short it backfired with the AoS Starter Box.

 

Tricky one to get right that; they obviously were wary of another Indomitus situation but I don't think it's so much that they wildly overproduced Dominion, more that the preorder guarantee that was in place completely wiped out the incentive for scalpers to buy it up in big quantities.

[Bung]

1 hour ago, Halandaar said:

 

Tricky one to get right that; they obviously were wary of another Indomitus situation but I don't think it's so much that they wildly overproduced Dominion, more that the preorder guarantee that was in place completely wiped out the incentive for scalpers to buy it up in big quantities.

 

Wouldnt be tricky If they would look at their sales numbers outside UK.

In my area the only reason people bought into AoS was the independent Nerdstore owner organized a growing League where you started with a Start collecting Box and bi-weekly Events.

Noone else i know plays AoS. You can still find Dominion boxes for cheap in some stores.

I rather think it the Dominion Bos shows what stuff is in demand and what not.

 

Especially a Company that doesnt do any market research.

 

[BrainFireBob]

One part warehouse issues. One part hoarding for big releases.

 

I am steadily buying 40mms for my old termies. Couldn't for a few months before Codex: World Eaters came out. With the Eightbound. On 40mm.

 

When the Combat Patrols/Start Collectings are going to update, the contents are allocated and get thin on the ground.

 

I needed another Contemptor arm sprue. Out of stock from Xmas until early Mar- that's factory capacity issues as equipment is dedicated to the new release (WE). Then they were available for a week. I ordered, and it didn't show. First week, OK backlog. Second week- that indicates stock being earmarked for some kind of bundle. Then the Contemptor torso announcement, followed by torsos bundled with arms- there it is, the production run was being reserved.

 

So I filed a "where's my paid-for order" gripe, and even though "out of stock", my sprue shows. I assume someone *opened* their rebundled package. 

[Halandaar]

1 hour ago, Bung said:

I rather think it the Dominion Bos shows what stuff is in demand and what not.

 

Dominion was an over-correction from Indomitus for sure, but a big issue is that the true amount of demand for GW products has been disguised by the amount being bought by scalpers to split or re-sell on eBay, and this has been going on for years. After Indomitus they introduced the pre-order guarantee and following that not a single major box sold out on pre-order day because there was no reason for scalpers to buy them any more, up until they stopped the guarantee that is, because now we're having this problem again (see The Lion this past weekend)

 

I'm finding it difficult to articulate this so I'm going to have to do some completely made up numbers:

• GW makes 1000 copies of Indomitus and list them for sale
• 1000 people try to buy Indomitus, 500 people get one copy each, then 40 people get 25 copies each (scalpers)
• 500 people are unhappy they couldn't buy Indomitus from GW or a FLGS and are forced to go to eBay and complain loudly to GW
• GW has to put Indomitus back into production and gets a further 500 orders
• GW determines that the demand for the product was 1500 units, even though only 1000 actually wanted the product

To correct, GW does this next time:

• GW produce 1200 copies of Dominion (because they assume AoS is 20% less popular than 40K and they think demand was 1500 units)
• GW also guarantees you can buy a copy at their price even if it sells out on the day - this serves as a deterrent to scalpers even if that's not GWs actual intent
• 800 people try to buy Dominion (20% less than the 1000 actual 40K buyers), and succeed because the scalpers don't bother to buy them
• 400 Copies left over

Now obviously I don't know any of the actual numbers involved, but this demonstrates how the Dominion situation could arise despite GW actually being pretty well aware of the disparity between the systems in terms of popularity. In this hypothetical, GW correctly identified that the demand for AoS is 20% lower, but the problem was that the scalpers artificially inflated the sales numbers for the 40k product which threw off everything else.

 

I'm not saying that this is exactly what happened and certainly it's a simplified view (they'd be able to tell how many unique buyers they had, after all) but the fact is that the preorder guarantee introduced after Indomitus completely stopped this issue from happening (across every system including 40K and Kill Team) - that seems pretty strong evidence that demand numbers are being massively skewed by people who don't actually want the product for themselves.

 

Edited April 21, 2023 by Halandaar

[Bung]

Then how do you explain that they dont get it right even with regular products?

 

We are talking about a Company openly admitting not doing market research and ignoring customers.

(After a nearly a year still No FaQ about the different HH rule Versions)

 

Mark III Marine Boxes had been sold out fast after the launch and it took months to restock, Jetbikes are still sold out and i cant even get some from local eBay.

 

Scalpers for limited stuff May be a small factor, but for regular stuff the only explanation a can find is incomoetence in different levels of Management.

 

[Marshal Rohr]

GW's failure to complete its IT/ERP/Warehousing overhaul is causing the issue. 

[Halandaar]

On 4/21/2023 at 7:47 PM, Bung said:

Then how do you explain that they dont get it right even with regular products?

 

1 hour ago, Marshal Rohr said:

GW's failure to complete its IT/ERP/Warehousing overhaul is causing the issue. 

 

Certainly a big factor, also there is only so much production capacity available and a huge amount of that will have been given over to producing the kits for the 40K 10th Edition Launch box. I don't feel like it was that long ago their attempts to add more capacity were being limited by the power availability.

 

Add to that a relentless release schedule that demands various amounts of brand new kits every single week and something somewhere has to give.

 

On 4/21/2023 at 7:47 PM, Bung said:

but for regular stuff the only explanation a can find is incomoetence in different levels of Management.

 

Sorry to have to tell you, but if a cap on production capacity means they have to make a choice between producing new things and restocking old ones, and the majority of their money is made on the initial release of a product and sales drop off significantly after that, then prioritising new products over restocking older ones is the management getting it right, even if that is bad for us as individual customers. Yes it sucks, yes I would prefer to be able to buy whatever I want whenever I want to, but a business is gonna business and if the money comes from new stuff that is always what they are going to choose - it not being what you and I want doesn't mean it's being badly managed.

Edited April 26, 2023 by Halandaar

[Firedrake Cordova]

On 4/4/2023 at 3:49 PM, TheWillTheWay said:

Any perspectives, whether pure speculation, rumors, educated guesses, expertise in the manufacturing and distribution field, or known facts about GW would be appreciated.

Models have disappeared from the online store (in a "sold out online" kind of way) when they were being repackaged, as they got a new SKU (this happened with the Burning Chariot of Tzeentch about 5+ years ago - it disappeared for a few weeks and came back with a new box and oval base [instead of the WHFB chariot base]). I don't know if that's related to the recent disappearances (e.g. some of the Gloomspite Gitz models disappeared from the store for a couple of weeks before coming back), but it feels like there's a chance it may be a possibility for disappearances (as opposed to the usual "temporarily out of stock")?

[Bung]

7 hours ago, Halandaar said:

 

 

Certainly a big factor, also there is only so much production capacity available and a huge amount of that will have been given over to producing the kits for the 40K 10th Edition Launch box. I don't feel like it was that long ago their attempts to add more capacity were being limited by the power availability.

 

Add to that a relentless release schedule that demands various amounts of brand new kits every single week and something somewhere has to give.

 

 

Sorry to have to tell you, but if a cap on production capacity means they have to make a choice between producing new things and restocking old ones, and the majority of their money is made on the initial release of a product and sales drop off significantly after that, then prioritising new products over restocking older ones is the management getting it right, even if that is bad for us as individual customers. Yes it sucks, yes I would prefer to be able to buy whatever I want whenever I want to, but a business is gonna business and if the money comes from new stuff that is always what they are going to choose - it not being what you and I want doesn't mean it's being badly managed.

 

The Jetbikes for Horus Heresy are pretty new, they were just releases a few months ago.

 

Neither the initial launch nir the second production run kept them available.

 

So pleased tell me how that fits your narrative?

 

The initial Run was underestimation and the second run too.

 

They :cuss:ed up their planing twice at that point and lost customers to other sources.

 

I have been printing replacement Jetbikes for weeks, for some friends and that happens not only in my gaming group.

 

 

[Marshal Rohr]

It doesn't matter if it is incompetence, there isn't one single person responsible for this. Their ERP sucks, and they are losing sales because they can't make enough product. They have been looking for IT professionals for a while, and it hasn't improved, so you cant just wag your finger like someone somewhere slept through math class in high school. Its a bottom up infrastructure failure. 

 

Edit: and they aren't losing money on this, they print enough to make the money back, they just arent making as much as they could. 

Edited April 26, 2023 by Marshal Rohr

[WrathOfTheLion]

The Master of Possession is an interesting kit here. It shouldn't have anything to do with the molds, as the Venomcrawler and Obliterators are for sale, unless it's somehow tethered to the Legionaries/Greater Possessed part of Shadowspear.

 

I would think if so, then it and kits like the Lord of Contagion for Death Guard will get a new sculpt/single release later.

[Bung]

9 hours ago, Marshal Rohr said:

It doesn't matter if it is incompetence, there isn't one single person responsible for this. Their ERP sucks, and they are losing sales because they can't make enough product. They have been looking for IT professionals for a while, and it hasn't improved, so you cant just wag your finger like someone somewhere slept through math class in high school. Its a bottom up infrastructure failure. 

 

Edit: and they aren't losing money on this, they print enough to make the money back, they just arent making as much as they could. 

 

As i work myself in produktion, yes i can.

 

Mashine time planing and production planing is what people get paid for but they can only plan with the numbers they get from expected sales.

Which is another Job people get paid to do.

The latter ones are the ones that :cuss: up consistently.

I know my and other other companies had them sacked long ago.

[Halandaar]

9 hours ago, Bung said:

The Jetbikes for Horus Heresy are pretty new, they were just releases a few months ago.

 

Neither the initial launch nir the second production run kept them available.

 

So pleased tell me how that fits your narrative?

 

You could... read the post?

 

16 hours ago, Halandaar said:

there is only so much production capacity available and a huge amount of that will have been given over to producing the kits for the 40K 10th Edition Launch box.

 

It's not a narrative, it's just reality. They can only make so much at a time and some things are naturally a higher priority than others. Remember what a mess the Indomitus launch was? They are not going to want to repeat that and therefore the production priority for probably months now will have been kits for the 10th Edition launch box and the follow-up starter sets. 

 

I mean you've also got to remember that GW has released 68 unique plastic kits since the start of the year and had to produce stock for each and every one of those releases, and this doesn't count any of the bundle boxes like Boarding Patrols, Vanguard sets or Battleboxes that may have required older stock producing to fill them out. Jetbikes came out immediately between World Eaters and the second Guard wave and were probably deemed a lower priority for production in that period. 

 

Out of those 68 kits, there are only 7 that are genuinely out of stock at the moment (8 more are unavailable because they were in time-limited bundles and haven't had standalone releases yet) and as it happens, Skyhunter Jetbikes isn't one of them.

 

9 hours ago, Marshal Rohr said:

you cant just wag your finger like someone somewhere slept through math class in high school. Its a bottom up infrastructure failure. 

 

I'm not disputing that the infrastructure they have can't keep up with what they're trying to do, but the stock shortage issues wouldn't be there if they weren't constantly trying to release so many products so quickly. They could have released 20% fewer new kits the past quarter and used all the spare capacity that would free up to either produce second waves of stuff that sold beyond their expectations, to produce more upfront units of products that have had to make do with small launch allocations, or to replenish older kits that have gone out of stock.

 

I would absolutely prefer they did that, but ultimately GW have chosen this path of constantly churning out new products so they can keep marketing the latest thing, not the cool old thing you just haven't gotten to yet. It's a strategy aimed at keeping the hobby butterflies/magpies constantly engaged and buying, and it's not a failure of the infrastructure that GW management chooses to use it this way. 

 

[Bung]

22 hours ago, Marshal Rohr said:

GW's failure to complete its IT/ERP/Warehousing overhaul is causing the issue. 

 

The issue was there before they even started with their Warehouse IT.

The Indomitus Box ist the best example for that.

 

 

@Halandaar

I dont say production capacity isnt a bottle neck, i have been there a few times.

What i am saying is that you can reduce that If you give better Numbers what they should produce.

 

You need rather accurate sales expectations, which is a Point GW constantly :cuss:s up.

Which is part ignorance as they dont do any market research which results in incompetence to estimate their sales numbers.

 

Even their Warehouse Problems can be solved with a handfull of people counting stuff by hand.

Been there had to do that too. 

So for me the Warehouse Problem is more If an excuse cause they dont want to solve it in time.

 

 

Edited April 27, 2023 by Bung

[Halandaar]

1 hour ago, Bung said:

I dont say production capacity isnt a bottle neck, i have been there a few times.

What i am saying is that you can reduce that If you give better Numbers what they should produce.

 

You need rather accurate sales expectations, which is a Point GW constantly :cuss:s up.

Which is part ignorance as they dont do any market research which results in incompetence to estimate their sales numbers.

 

I don't disagree, but we have to recognise that their way of doing things is to "surprise" us with newly revealed products; the whole reason leaks and rumours gain so much traction is that GW typically doesn't tell us anything more than a couple of months in advance, at best. I mean it'd be pretty hard to keep the fact they were releasing The Lion for 40K a secret if, 12 months beforehand, they started openly asking people whether they'd be interested in buying one so they can get the production numbers dialed in.

 

Things like the Sisters of Battle and upcoming Cities of Sigmar revamp being trailed a year or more in advance are really unusual, and once we get closer to their respective releases GW starts to go quiet again to keep the actual release window vague until just beforehand. 

 

Again, this is a choice; they have chosen to risk getting their volume estimates wrong in order to preserve the secrecy of what's coming down the pipe later on and that too is part of a strategy of keeping people buying instead of sitting on their money waiting for what they really want.

 

For instance, I will in all likelihood buy a copy of the 10th Edition Starter box because I collect Space Marines and have a small Tyranid contingent, and the only other thing I'm interested in that I know is coming in the short-to-medium term is the Seraphon release in AoS. But if on Saturday at WarhammerFest they tell us that in October they're doing a second big Aeldari release which is going to cover all the remaining Aspect Warriors and Phoenix Lords and in January they're going to revamp all the remaining Drukhari coven units then I wouldn't buy the 10th Ed starter set (or the Seraphon) and would save the cash and wait for the Eldar. And that's exactly why they don't tell us.

 

GWs gambit here is that they get me to buy 10th Edition and the Seraphon because I don't know that the thing I'm really waiting for is just around the corner, and then spring the Eldar on me later in the hope/expectation that I'll end up getting everything anyway. And it obviously works for them because it's apparently worth trading inaccurate sales estimates for.

Edited April 27, 2023 by Halandaar

[Robbienw]

On 4/20/2023 at 10:44 AM, Xenith said:

 

They were back in stock a couple of weeks ago for about 12 hours then sold out again. Best way to let GW estimate demand is to hit the email me button! 

 

Sky Hunters came back in stock today and i have ordered some, hooray 

 

Edited April 27, 2023 by Robbienw

[Bung]

4 hours ago, Halandaar said:

 

I don't disagree, but we have to recognise that their way of doing things is to "surprise" us with newly revealed products; the whole reason leaks and rumours gain so much traction is that GW typically doesn't tell us anything more than a couple of months in advance, at best. I mean it'd be pretty hard to keep the fact they were releasing The Lion for 40K a secret if, 12 months beforehand, they started openly asking people whether they'd be interested in buying one so they can get the production numbers dialed in.

 

Things like the Sisters of Battle and upcoming Cities of Sigmar revamp being trailed a year or more in advance are really unusual, and once we get closer to their respective releases GW starts to go quiet again to keep the actual release window vague until just beforehand. 

 

Again, this is a choice; they have chosen to risk getting their volume estimates wrong in order to preserve the secrecy of what's coming down the pipe later on and that too is part of a strategy of keeping people buying instead of sitting on their money waiting for what they really want.

 

For instance, I will in all likelihood buy a copy of the 10th Edition Starter box because I collect Space Marines and have a small Tyranid contingent, and the only other thing I'm interested in that I know is coming in the short-to-medium term is the Seraphon release in AoS. But if on Saturday at WarhammerFest they tell us that in October they're doing a second big Aeldari release which is going to cover all the remaining Aspect Warriors and Phoenix Lords and in January they're going to revamp all the remaining Drukhari coven units then I wouldn't buy the 10th Ed starter set (or the Seraphon) and would save the cash and wait for the Eldar. And that's exactly why they don't tell us.

 

GWs gambit here is that they get me to buy 10th Edition and the Seraphon because I don't know that the thing I'm really waiting for is just around the corner, and then spring the Eldar on me later in the hope/expectation that I'll end up getting everything anyway. And it obviously works for them because it's apparently worth trading inaccurate sales estimates for.

 

Thats you.

With 3d printing me and a lot of other people simply lost interest in waiting for GW as you can basically get everything without wait for GW.

 

I know a Kratos Modell was sold as STL one week before GW put them for sale.

 

Sure Horus Heresy isnt the Main selling system, but especially the HH crowd are the ones most open for alternative bits and modell sources. 

 

And most of the HH crowd are the oldies, the ones helping to paint, convert etc. in the stores and Clubs.

 

Do you really think if people lose the reluctance to buy from GW in one Game it doesnt affect their sales in the long run.

Especially with the incompetent quality control from FW? 

 

[Marshal Rohr]

10 hours ago, Bung said:

 

As i work myself in produktion, yes i can.

 

Mashine time planing and production planing is what people get paid for but they can only plan with the numbers they get from expected sales.

Which is another Job people get paid to do.

The latter ones are the ones that up consistently.

I know my and other other companies had them sacked long ago.

 

I too spent many years in industrial automation and now enterprise tech, and it doesn't matter what your plan is when your ERP tools don't work. What is the point of planning when you can't make the machines work because your controls systems are crap, your scheduling tool is overbooking, and your ecommerce solution is processing payments without stock. 

[Bung]

On 4/27/2023 at 7:15 PM, Marshal Rohr said:

 

I too spent many years in industrial automation and now enterprise tech, and it doesn't matter what your plan is when your ERP tools don't work. What is the point of planning when you can't make the machines work because your controls systems are crap, your scheduling tool is overbooking, and your ecommerce solution is processing payments without stock. 

 

And what has this to die with GW?

We know their Tools Work cause they still release stuff.

I know they need to make a minimum of each sprue.

But it doesnt explain, while wtandard new stuff isnt in stock.

 

The only explanation is the cant get the demand right.

There are enough examples before the warehouse changes. 

In their last Report they had more than 40 injection mashines to make stuff.

 

Their only problems are homemade:

- not enough workers, its the same for everyone, pay more, give some good benefits etc. and you have them.

Especially as Nottingham isnt a much desired place internationally.

-no market Research which leads to a lot of follow up problems

 

 

[RandomMarine]

You now have a packed release cycle with a big box every 3 months atleast it's all plastic now. Gw have a set number of injection machines and refuse to outsource due to quality issues in the past. So what they produce and when is tightly controlled, so when they run out of stock it takes a while for free machine space to come round. 

 

Scalping doesn't help at all because it's also :cuss:s with gw ability to forecast quantities needed as well as annoying the customer