Online Retailers Jumping on Scalping Hardcovers Now (Flipside Gaming)

[caladancid]

I really wish GW would take a look at the sales of their HB and realize they could make a lot more, and they would sell.

 

Its so bad now that even established sellers like Flipside are marking up new HB well beyond MSRP. They are selling the new Leviathan novel for 55 right now on eBay.

[Bung]

That wont happen.

 

Take Limited Editions as example.

Their numbers of Limited Edition Novels stagnated the last 15 years between 1250 and 2000 pieces.

 

Probably the same for the Hardbacks but larger numbers.

 

GW is to Happy with "Sold Out at Release Date" for their Investor reports than catering to their customers.

 

 

[Xenith]

4 hours ago, Bung said:

GW is to Happy with "Sold Out at Release Date" for their Investor reports than catering to their customers.

 

 

This is incompatible with the "gw is a mony grubbing corporation who only wants to make money".

 

Investors would be much happier with "Sold 2000 units with 50 left unsold" than "sold out of 1000 units on release day.".

 

The former is more money, while the latter is bad business management, limited edition FOMO notwithstanding. More money is more money! 

[Squark]

Just now, Xenith said:

 

This is incompatible with the "gw is a mony grubbing corporation who only wants to make money".

 

Investors would be much happier with "Sold 2000 units with 50 left unsold" than "sold out of 1000 units on release day.".

 

The former is more money, while the latter is bad business management, limited edition FOMO notwithstanding. More money is more money! 

You're assuming investors think rationally. And to be fair, they like to think they do, in spite of mountains of evidence to the contrary.

[Xenith]

You got me there 

[DemonGSides]

2 hours ago, Xenith said:

 

This is incompatible with the "gw is a mony grubbing corporation who only wants to make money".

 

Investors would be much happier with "Sold 2000 units with 50 left unsold" than "sold out of 1000 units on release day.".

 

The former is more money, while the latter is bad business management, limited edition FOMO notwithstanding. More money is more money! 

 

It's a lot deeper than that, unfortunately.  There's also the balancing act of "This is what we can produce."

Of course investors are going to be happier with 2000 units sold over 1000 units sold, but not if it cost more to produce (Because they had to hire another printshop to print more instruction booklets, because they had to invest in new hardware for more plastic presses, etc etc).  So it's better if they can show way lower expenses on producing these 1000 boxes than slightly higher expenses producing 2000 boxes because it's beyond their current scope.

So, in an infinite resources kinda world, sure.  But there's a lot more to be said for logistics and the ever present gamble of "Did we manage to sell every person with the stomach to buy this product on this product, or did we make too many for what our clients appetites support."

Also not an easy question!

[Bung]

3 hours ago, Xenith said:

 

This is incompatible with the "gw is a mony grubbing corporation who only wants to make money".

 

Investors would be much happier with "Sold 2000 units with 50 left unsold" than "sold out of 1000 units on release day.".

 

The former is more money, while the latter is bad business management, limited edition FOMO notwithstanding. More money is more money! 

 

It works cause for the novels you have 4 versions

- leatherbound Limited Edition

- Hardbacks

- Paperbacks

- eBooks

 

If the first 2 are Sold Out at release date you have happy Investors cause you can tell them our Brand is great, look how fast the rare stuff sells.

 

There are only 2 times i was able to get a Limited Edition in the last years:

- it wasnt that popular (Kal Jericho Hardbacks)

- people overspend on miniatures in the same day (Cthonias Reckoning)

[Cactus]

I don't believe it's as straightforward as "selling out of X looks good to investors". Have you ever read one of GW's reports or been a shareholder? That kind of detail is not public.

 

Every product has a production cost (design, manufacture, shipping etc.) and an opportunity cost (what different product could that money have been spent on that might have been more profitable). Selling out immediately is good business because you know you have maximised your return on the production cost and minimised your storage costs because all the stock is gone from the warehouse. Overstock that never shifts, or sells slowly, is TERRIBLE because it sits around costing you more money than anticipated and you know that you could be making better profit from something else. Maybe you don't know exactly what that more profitable product would be and never developed it, or perhaps you should have just made more of other product Y. What GW HAVE told investors in recent years is that they are bad at guaging the demand for their products.

 

GW have been very badly burned in the past by massively misjudging how well something would sell. It's likely there is a strong institutional memory and culture that is risk averse when making these decisions. See Goonhammer's surprisingly good pair of articles about Gorkamorka.

https://www.goonhammer.com/what-happened-to-gorkamorka-part-one-gorkers-and-morkers/

 

https://www.goonhammer.com/what-happened-to-gorkamorka-part-two-the-hulk/

 

40k is the exception and GW knows it. @N1SB has previously shown us that GW's Profits consistently increase by more in the years when 40k launches a new edition than in other years. As I said at the start of this ramble we don't know which specific products are generating this profit* but as long as this trend continues, and the launch set doesn't sit unsold in Nottingham/Memphis, it is rational for GW to make unprecedented amounts of the new 40k launch box and to be conservative with everything else. It can be painful for us but it gives management confidence that they are making the most profit they can from the money they're spending.

 

*It just occurred to me that this pattern could be caused by people deciding they don't like the new edition and going heavy on the Horus Heresy, or Necromunda. The data available to us would look the same.

Edited June 27, 2023 by Cactus

[Bung]

3 hours ago, Cactus said:

I don't believe it's as straightforward as "selling out of X looks good to investors". Have you ever read one of GW's reports or been a shareholder? That kind of detail is not public.

 

Every product has a production cost (design, manufacture, shipping etc.) and an opportunity cost (what different product could that money have been spent on that might have been more profitable). Selling out immediately is good business because you know you have maximised your return on the production cost and minimised your storage costs because all the stock is gone from the warehouse. Overstock that never shifts, or sells slowly, is TERRIBLE because it sits around costing you more money than anticipated and you know that you could be making better profit from something else. Maybe you don't know exactly what that more profitable product would be and never developed it, or perhaps you should have just made more of other product Y. What GW HAVE told investors in recent years is that they are bad at guaging the demand for their products.

 

GW have been very badly burned in the past by massively misjudging how well something would sell. It's likely there is a strong institutional memory and culture that is risk averse when making these decisions. See Goonhammer's surprisingly good pair of articles about Gorkamorka.

https://www.goonhammer.com/what-happened-to-gorkamorka-part-one-gorkers-and-morkers/

 

https://www.goonhammer.com/what-happened-to-gorkamorka-part-two-the-hulk/

 

40k is the exception and GW knows it. @N1SB has previously shown us that GW's Profits consistently increase by more in the years when 40k launches a new edition than in other years. As I said at the start of this ramble we don't know which specific products are generating this profit* but as long as this trend continues, and the launch set doesn't sit unsold in Nottingham/Memphis, it is rational for GW to make unprecedented amounts of the new 40k launch box and to be conservative with everything else. It can be painful for us but it gives management confidence that they are making the most profit they can from the money they're spending.

 

*It just occurred to me that this pattern could be caused by people deciding they don't like the new edition and going heavy on the Horus Heresy, or Necromunda. The data available to us would look the same.

 

That they misjudged what they can sell is GWs own fault.

As a company that doesnt do a single bit of market research or doesnt engage with its customers for over a decade i am Not suprised  they cant get their production quantities right.

 

The other point is, with books you dont have the same costs as miniatures.

They are written as an electronic file and made into 4 different versions.

 

Which doesnt change that even with a growing fanbase GW isnt willing to change their quota of Limited Edition books.

Even after year long complaints from customers.

 

They even could avoid that If they would make those Limited Editions as Made to Order, which shouldnt be a problem as they do it already for Miniatures.

 

As said before Sold Out Special production looks good for Investors cause the can expect that the normal (Paperback and eBook) will sell too, as there is a proven demand.

 

 

 

[Interrogator Stobz]

It's practically always better to sell out quickly then move on to the next product. 

The time from design to manufacturing to shelves to customers cost money. Lots of money.

 

The Amazon model literally avoids that cost by taking your money before they even have the items. It's the Most important thing. Amazon are fairly successful for a reason.

Edited June 27, 2023 by Interrogator Stobz

[KenaiPhoneix]

Sadly there is an incentive to have the “Sold out!” Logo on your store. 
 

it not only serves as good publicity for your products (“my products are so cool that I can’t make enough if them!”) but also get the sensation of scarcity/FOMO that will make the customers just jump without hesitation to the buy page. You can’t rethink or reorder your shopping list if you are afraid that they will sold out.  You are more willing to get the new unit now when you are afraid it would be out of stock than in the case of having an existing stock of those units. In that last case you might put it in the back of your “wish list” and then forget to get. 
 

And about the scalpers, the only way to win that fight it to not buy their products. From what I hear, GW is trying to fix that issue (it is for them a problem too, but for other reasons). Personally, 40k is not that played here in my country so we don’t get too many boxes of products but also doesn’t have to worry about scalpers. Either way the only way to beat them is to let them waste their money, when you buy their stuff you are validating that price and allowing him to do it again. 

[MegaVolt87]

7 hours ago, KenaiPhoneix said:

Sadly there is an incentive to have the “Sold out!” Logo on your store. 
 

it not only serves as good publicity for your products (“my products are so cool that I can’t make enough if them!”) but also get the sensation of scarcity/FOMO that will make the customers just jump without hesitation to the buy page. You can’t rethink or reorder your shopping list if you are afraid that they will sold out.  You are more willing to get the new unit now when you are afraid it would be out of stock than in the case of having an existing stock of those units. In that last case you might put it in the back of your “wish list” and then forget to get. 
 

And about the scalpers, the only way to win that fight it to not buy their products. From what I hear, GW is trying to fix that issue (it is for them a problem too, but for other reasons). Personally, 40k is not that played here in my country so we don’t get too many boxes of products but also doesn’t have to worry about scalpers. Either way the only way to beat them is to let them waste their money, when you buy their stuff you are validating that price and allowing him to do it again. 

 

Best way to fix scalpers-

- Don't announce something is limited run box.

- Feed more product into the market, tell people its a big run, sticking around for a long while etc. 

- If sold out, be clear about re-stocks "more boxes in two weeks" etc.

- Larger pre-order windows.

- MTO runs of limited products that instantly sell out, don't have to go to a scalper if you can get it at RRP just have to wait. 

 

Scalpers exist when there is scarcity, best to leave them with product no one needs because there is adequate supply, like those people stuck with TP trying to return it all during the pandemic. 

[WrathOfTheLion]

At least where I work, potential revenue is accounted for. On a product like these books, they should be able to calculate by sellout rate, etc. the revenue they've essentially 'lost' by not having enough supply. This is absolutely something that they should be accounting for, the whole sold out of X really quickly being 'good' wouldn't hold up with basic projections. That said, there could be more hard production caps or other complications that are actually driving the limitations, which I think is significantly more likely.

[KenaiPhoneix]

1 hour ago, MegaVolt87 said:

 

Best way to fix scalpers-

- Don't announce something is limited run box.

- Feed more product into the market, tell people its a big run, sticking around for a long while etc. 

- If sold out, be clear about re-stocks "more boxes in two weeks" etc.

- Larger pre-order windows.

- MTO runs of limited products that instantly sell out, don't have to go to a scalper if you can get it at RRP just have to wait. 

 

Scalpers exist when there is scarcity, best to leave them with product no one needs because there is adequate supply, like those people stuck with TP trying to return it all during the pandemic. 

 

 

Sadly it is easier said than done. GW (or any other company tbh) aims to sell exactly the units they produce. Having more will be harmful for them because of storage resources (in any physical product market, storage is always their enemy). Made them "Made to Order" will be a hell on the logistic side of things, but they definitely should do it more, even if it doesn't help a lot to the scalpers situation. And for GW scalpers are also a big problem, thanks to them they don't know how much they have to actually produce, scalpers inflate and hide the actual "buy" of their products, so it is a guess for them.

 

And for scalpers, once again the only way to beat them is to use the same storage curse that all supermarkets have, made them lose money so the "market" (us) is not profitable. There is always people looking to get the "resell" value, and many discover that if they use an absurd amount of money they can get all. Another example: a couple of Christmas ago baby Yoda was a popular character, so Disney create the amount of products related to him according to their data and their factory capabilities (it is not a "guess number") and the scalpers jump out of nowhere and produce a shortage of Baby Yoda to resell it at abusive prices.

 

Now, another example of how this can work (im sorry the long post, but I want to share that it IS possible to beat those scalpers): In my country getting 40k units is not that hard, but you have to know where to look. Some guys decided to abuse the system by start using a popular online selling platform to "sell" the boxes, and I put those quotes because you buy them at double the price of Amazon or GW (including shipping) and have to wait. That's right, they were taking your money (plus their cut), and ordering online to take advantage of anyone that just googled "Warhammer 40k Space Marine buy" (thanks to the platform they were the top search). Long story short, nobody get anything from them and now we can actually get some 40k products on that platform at really normal prices (for a 40k unit). 

 

[MegaVolt87]

1 hour ago, KenaiPhoneix said:

 

 

Sadly it is easier said than done. GW (or any other company tbh) aims to sell exactly the units they produce. Having more will be harmful for them because of storage resources (in any physical product market, storage is always their enemy). Made them "Made to Order" will be a hell on the logistic side of things, but they definitely should do it more, even if it doesn't help a lot to the scalpers situation. And for GW scalpers are also a big problem, thanks to them they don't know how much they have to actually produce, scalpers inflate and hide the actual "buy" of their products, so it is a guess for them.

 

And for scalpers, once again the only way to beat them is to use the same storage curse that all supermarkets have, made them lose money so the "market" (us) is not profitable. There is always people looking to get the "resell" value, and many discover that if they use an absurd amount of money they can get all. Another example: a couple of Christmas ago baby Yoda was a popular character, so Disney create the amount of products related to him according to their data and their factory capabilities (it is not a "guess number") and the scalpers jump out of nowhere and produce a shortage of Baby Yoda to resell it at abusive prices.

 

Now, another example of how this can work (im sorry the long post, but I want to share that it IS possible to beat those scalpers): In my country getting 40k units is not that hard, but you have to know where to look. Some guys decided to abuse the system by start using a popular online selling platform to "sell" the boxes, and I put those quotes because you buy them at double the price of Amazon or GW (including shipping) and have to wait. That's right, they were taking your money (plus their cut), and ordering online to take advantage of anyone that just googled "Warhammer 40k Space Marine buy" (thanks to the platform they were the top search). Long story short, nobody get anything from them and now we can actually get some 40k products on that platform at really normal prices (for a 40k unit). 

 

 

Over-stock is a temporary setback, when in the long run GW sends a message of "sure, try to scalp, but you will be stuck with it because we can meet demand at RRP." If scalpers know there will be a guaranteed supply, they want nothing to do with the goods that entity produces in the future. I think we can both agree GW needs to make changes to ensure these scalpers will lose money if they try. 

[Halandaar]

1 hour ago, MegaVolt87 said:

I think we can both agree GW needs to make changes to ensure these scalpers will lose money if they try. 

 

We might all want it because it would benefit us, but GW doesn't need to do anything, unfortunately. Record sales, record profits, levels of demand undiminished by previous scalping. There's not really any incentive for them to change the way they release limited products because for every person driven away in frustration there is another who can and will pay massively inflated prices for the scalped products.

[Rik Lightstar]

With the Limited Edition books in particular the balancing act is tougher as they outsource all of their printing and commit WAAAAAAAAY in advance to how many copies they'll be printing total. It's quite possible they user different printers for the Limited Editions to the standard release editions.

 

In the publishing and printing world GW are really small, like tiny small so they just don't have the same clout as other publishers.

 

So if for example they currently produce 2000 Limited Edition copies of *Magnus did nothing wrong, a true story of the Heresy* and could sell 3000, they also in the same year produce 2000 copies each of 3 other titles which also sell out, but maybe not by as much and they only have a capacity of 8000 available then the goal is to sell all of their Limited Edition prints for the year, not just all of one title.

 

Rik

[KenaiPhoneix]

8 hours ago, MegaVolt87 said:

 

Over-stock is a temporary setback, when in the long run GW sends a message of "sure, try to scalp, but you will be stuck with it because we can meet demand at RRP." If scalpers know there will be a guaranteed supply, they want nothing to do with the goods that entity produces in the future. I think we can both agree GW needs to make changes to ensure these scalpers will lose money if they try. 

Not quite, over-stock produces a lot of issues in the logistics (taking care of the products, where to store them etc). And it evidence poor planning. Every machine or order they did (as Rik says, they outsource some stuff and can’t just come the last day and say “2k more please”) could have been used to other stuff, causing a shortage of another products. Yes they could also just improve their machines, but another factory, hire more people and over stock in the worse case. The thing is, now your daily/product (fixed) cost goes way way up. And if you don’t sell those products enough, then the only other alternative is to make the existing selling products even more expensive to cover the higher costs. And now you are over stocked, so you can’t just sell you new storage house.

 

But please, don’t feel like I’m defending GW, I really feel no sympathy for them. After what they did to the content creators and how the manage some of the community aspects… but that’s another topic. I’m only pointing out that this is more complicated than how it seems, but we actually try to fix it. At least some of it

[Bung]

17 hours ago, Rik Lightstar said:

With the Limited Edition books in particular the balancing act is tougher as they outsource all of their printing and commit WAAAAAAAAY in advance to how many copies they'll be printing total. It's quite possible they user different printers for the Limited Editions to the standard release editions.

 

In the publishing and printing world GW are really small, like tiny small so they just don't have the same clout as other publishers.

 

So if for example they currently produce 2000 Limited Edition copies of *Magnus did nothing wrong, a true story of the Heresy* and could sell 3000, they also in the same year produce 2000 copies each of 3 other titles which also sell out, but maybe not by as much and they only have a capacity of 8000 available then the goal is to sell all of their Limited Edition prints for the year, not just all of one title.

 

Rik

 

Is i bought a few Limited Editions years ago, they only do between 1250 and 2000 Books for over a Decade.

They never even tried to do more.

[MegaVolt87]

On 7/5/2023 at 11:43 PM, KenaiPhoneix said:

Not quite, over-stock produces a lot of issues in the logistics (taking care of the products, where to store them etc). And it evidence poor planning. Every machine or order they did (as Rik says, they outsource some stuff and can’t just come the last day and say “2k more please”) could have been used to other stuff, causing a shortage of another products. Yes they could also just improve their machines, but another factory, hire more people and over stock in the worse case. The thing is, now your daily/product (fixed) cost goes way way up. And if you don’t sell those products enough, then the only other alternative is to make the existing selling products even more expensive to cover the higher costs. And now you are over stocked, so you can’t just sell you new storage house.

 

But please, don’t feel like I’m defending GW, I really feel no sympathy for them. After what they did to the content creators and how the manage some of the community aspects… but that’s another topic. I’m only pointing out that this is more complicated than how it seems, but we actually try to fix it. At least some of it

 

Over stock can be written off as a loss and destroyed and no one would ever know. Wizards does this often with MTG, they destroy thousands of MTG booster boxes without saying a word when they have made too many of a particular set. Big companies have that luxury of leveraging overstock to change the market. Company pockets are deeper than scalpers, they will not stick around if there is guaranteed losses in store. In the age of investors, social media and ESG scores, better to have happy  customers on socials/ the internet even if it hits your pocket in the short term. 

[Remain_Indoors]

On 6/25/2023 at 2:18 AM, caladancid said:

I really wish GW would take a look at the sales of their HB and realize they could make a lot more, and they would sell.

 

Its so bad now that even established sellers like Flipside are marking up new HB well beyond MSRP. They are selling the new Leviathan novel for 55 right now on eBay.

 

Really disappointing to hear about as someone who used to own a FLGS. When i was in business there was always the temptation there to take advantage of demand - i was open when dice sets were super limited and a pack of say Genestealer Cult dice could go on ebay for 2-3 times the RRP. But i wanted to support my local players not rip them off on eBay.