NOVA Open Preview - August 28th/29th

[Dark Shepherd]

 

 

The funny thing is, the 'foil' videos were basically me taking the pi$$ out of myself, going so far down the rabbit hole and being deluded  that people wouldn't even think about them being true, just some fun to brighten someone's day, but a small percentage watch them and take everything as 100% fact which is even more hilarious to me 

When are we getting smol Primarchs for Legion Imperialis? :)

[Magos Takatus]

 

When are we getting smol Primarchs for Legion Imperialis? :)

I think GW needs to fine-tune their de-biggification ray in order to make it work on Primarchs. 

[TheMawr]

 

I made the below image showing 4 month cycles ( roughly, the older it gets the harder it got to verify the exact months, I also miss some things and only while working it realised usually the BL characters are not only limited edition, but also dont get 40k rules so really shouldnt be here.) I only went as far back as 2021, but the years before show similar volume to those, if not more.

The people who consider the coming 4 months unusual are actually far from wrong, in fact it follows up an already relatively low 4 month cycle probably adding heavier ( but rightful ) weight to that feeling.

 

Ofcourse the image does not include the 2 hivestorm kill teams ( the images so far are unusable for me ) and who knows there might still be suprises, and as someone said before.. its not at all impossible that while imperial guard are officially a 2025 release, a boxset might predate it.
The lack of words on any of the skirmish games makes me think we are still due a skirmish game preview event soon.

 

Nonetheless, objectively speaking, yes.. only the BA releases (and hivestorm) for coming 4 months is odd and far less than usual, despite the other game systems ( wich also got releases the past couple of years after all.)

[TheArtilleryman]

 

I think GW needs to fine-tune their de-biggification ray in order to make it work on Primarchs. 

OMG now I’m just seeing Rick Moranis pointing a massive laser at Rogal Dorn…

 

”Uh - Honey, I shrunk the primarchs!”

[Magos Takatus]

 

OMG now I’m just seeing Rick Moranis pointing a massive laser at Rogal Dorn…

 

”Uh - Honey, I shrunk the primarchs!”

That was the first movie I ever watched in the cinema. Good grief I feel old. 

[Flaherty]

 

 

I made the below image showing 4 month cycles ( roughly, the older it gets the harder it got to verify the exact months, I also miss some things and only while working it realised usually the BL characters are not only limited edition, but also dont get 40k rules so really shouldnt be here.) I only went as far back as 2021, but the years before show similar volume to those, if not more.

The people who consider the coming 4 months unusual are actually far from wrong, in fact it follows up an already relatively low 4 month cycle probably adding heavier ( but rightful ) weight to that feeling.

 

Ofcourse the image does not include the 2 hivestorm kill teams ( the images so far are unusable for me ) and who knows there might still be suprises, and as someone said before.. its not at all impossible that while imperial guard are officially a 2025 release, a boxset might predate it.
The lack of words on any of the skirmish games makes me think we are still due a skirmish game preview event soon.

 

Nonetheless, objectively speaking, yes.. only the BA releases (and hivestorm) for coming 4 months is odd and far less than usual, despite the other game systems ( wich also got releases the past couple of years after all.)

Seems like Q1 2025 should be a solid bounce-back

 

Aeldari: 3-4 Aspect Warrior Kits, 4-7 Lords - Final counts will rely on whether Dire Avengers and Spectres get new kits and if there is anything non-aspect related.

 

Krieg: 7ish kits? Infantry (alt sculpts different from KT, like Kroot), Command, Heavy Weapons, Riders, 3-4 characters. Maybe engineers and a tank upgrade?

 

Knights: A new Knight variant? I could see them not doing a new model release and just doing value boxes.

 

On the low side of these estimates, we'd be in for a baker's dozen kits. Figure in a Kill Team release and a couple other models for codices, BL, etc. and it could be in the 19-21 kit release range that marked the high end of prior years. 

 

Here's hoping!

[General Strike]

Maybe we can get Knight Household Guard for the Imperial Knights finally? 

[CL_Mission]

 

 

Krieg: 7ish kits? Infantry (alt sculpts different from KT, like Kroot), Command, Heavy Weapons, Riders, 3-4 characters. Maybe engineers and a tank upgrade?

 

I'm not sure we'll see alternative infantry squads for Krieg. With kroot the kill team were a very unique looking team of veterans who looked very different from the regular Kroot warriors we already had. The Kreig Killteam though can easily make a very normal looking infantry squad, I don't think there's a big need for a new kit to make regular squad.

I'm really interested to see what they do with Krieg, will they have mostly uniquely Krieg units or will we see Krieg variants for existing Candian kits like Heavy Weapons teams and Field Ordinance Batteries? I think the Command squad is a sure bet though. 

[Marshal Rohr]

I imagine it’ll be a Heavy Weapons box, rough riders, Artillery, Engineer/Grenadier dual kit, command squad, Marshal, Gas Mask Commissar, and named character. No need for the sentinel release, but maybe inshallah, we get the centaur back. 

[Emperor Ming]

 

I imagine it’ll be a Heavy Weapons box, rough riders, Artillery, Engineer/Grenadier dual kit, command squad, Marshal, Gas Mask Commissar, and named character. No need for the sentinel release, but maybe inshallah, we get the centaur back. 

and a very expensive accessories sprue

[Orion]

Local GW staffer* unprompted said there will be Krieg HWT.
In fact that's the only thing he brought up.

 

Might be BS, but that's the only thing I've heard direct from someone who works for the GW on it.

 

*No, not a manager

[Halandaar]

Command Squad and Heavy Weapon Teams seem like a given, but it'll be interesting to see if any of their unique units (Death Riders, Engineers etc) get brought over. 

[beefeb]

I have to say, the DKoK release has rekindled my interest in astra militarum bigtime...in fact in anything GW as recently i havent been much interested in their lacklustre efforts.  Aeldari too, so thats a double coost to my mood.  Can see 2025 being a bit of a boos to my GW related hobby purchases.  Fingers crossed they do them justice....the Forgeworld DKoK are an absolute masterpiece, just too expensive, so lots of potential.

[Karhedron]

 

Maybe we can get Knight Household Guard for the Imperial Knights finally? 

 

Just get some suitable infantry and run them as Voidsmen at Arms.

[Waaagh?]

 

 

I made the below image showing 4 month cycles ( roughly, the older it gets the harder it got to verify the exact months, I also miss some things and only while working it realised usually the BL characters are not only limited edition, but also dont get 40k rules so really shouldnt be here.) I only went as far back as 2021, but the years before show similar volume to those, if not more.

The people who consider the coming 4 months unusual are actually far from wrong, in fact it follows up an already relatively low 4 month cycle probably adding heavier ( but rightful ) weight to that feeling.

 

Ofcourse the image does not include the 2 hivestorm kill teams ( the images so far are unusable for me ) and who knows there might still be suprises, and as someone said before.. its not at all impossible that while imperial guard are officially a 2025 release, a boxset might predate it.
The lack of words on any of the skirmish games makes me think we are still due a skirmish game preview event soon.

 

Nonetheless, objectively speaking, yes.. only the BA releases (and hivestorm) for coming 4 months is odd and far less than usual, despite the other game systems ( wich also got releases the past couple of years after all.)

 

They did switch to a two week preorder system this year so that will have slowed releases slightly. I know they still have something every week but the second week always seems to just be something minor like BL books and the odd specialist thing.

[Dark Shepherd]

DK

[Dr. Clock]

 

 

 follows up an already relatively low 4 month cycle

 

Definitely the big standout for sure. I like that you included Kill Team in the graphic, as I think pretending that it's 'actually distinct' from 40k is a mistake. It's meant that they've been able to touch at least 3 factions every four months, and sometimes up to 7 (2023 Jan-Apr).

 

I took the liberty of adding some labels:

 

 

 

This year looks pretty dang slow when you consider it's ~56% the number of releases from last year, ~77% of the next lowest year (2021), equating to 10 fewer releases this year than any of the past 3 years.

 

Anyway - super appreciate adding data to this discussion instead of vibes only lol.

 

Cheers,

 

The Good Doctor.

 

[Karhedron]

 

This year looks pretty dang slow when you consider it's ~56% the number of releases from last year, ~77% of the next lowest year (2021), equating to 10 fewer releases this year than any of the past 3 years.

 

I wonder if we are in the shadow of the Covid lockdowns? We know that GW work a good 2-3 years ahead of what is hitting the shelves currently. As well as the known factory capacity issues, we may be in a creative trough caused by the lockdowns.

[ZeroWolf]

 

 

I wonder if we are in the shadow of the Covid lockdowns? We know that GW work a good 2-3 years ahead of what is hitting the shelves currently. As well as the known factory capacity issues, we may be in a creative trough caused by the lockdowns.

That and other big releases may take resources away. Would be more interesting to see it with all of GW'S output on display.

 

Another factor is volume of products released, I.e. how much of one product is made.

[Dr. Clock]

 

creative trough caused by the lockdowns.

It seems more likely to me that it's connected to the reduction in dedicated release capacity as the number of 'core games', and the cadence of other releases has gone up. Wouldn't surprise me at all to learn that there are just fewer 'production slots' open for 40k stuff now that Heresy, AoS and so many other new and old things are being piled into the queue. The things we know about early next year seem pretty substantial, and at this point in design they probably could have squeezed Guard into this year if there wasn't a new AoS edition and new edition of MESBG, and Warriors of Chaos (those battalions have LOTS of sprues in them). It seems relatively clear that this is a function of production crunch, not creative crunch.

 

 

 how much of one product is made.

Indeed. But that's very sensitive information from GW's perspective as they really don't like telling people when things underperform based on expectations. I think the biggest question mark for me is success of Old World in particular. If it has started to do significatnly better than expected, then it might have just eaten up all the 40k slack in the end of this year. The decision to slow pedal 40k over these 8 months had to have been made like 6 months ago I'm guessing, and the biggest quantities of stuff other than new AoS were surely the Old World faction relaunches. Doing big runs of tomb kings, brets, OnG, dwarfs and now chaos, you can see how they may have not anticipated last year how successful those would all be, and thus the capacity needed for Krieg would disappear if they decided to bump Orcs, Dwarfs and/or Chaos based on launch success.

 

Cheers,

 

The Good Doctor.

[Dark Shepherd]

Id agree on the TOW, it has definitely been a pleasant surprise for them

 

They might also be going all in (more in?) on the Christmas Boxes, the new style ones seemed extra popular and they are loving big boxes in general

 

And/or all the releases planned for 2025 could have pushed making the Christmas boxes further forward in the schedule

[Marshal Rohr]

 

 

I wonder if we are in the shadow of the Covid lockdowns? We know that GW work a good 2-3 years ahead of what is hitting the shelves currently. As well as the known factory capacity issues, we may be in a creative trough caused by the lockdowns.

Something I’ve been wondering for a while. We’ve reached the point where the model making and design would have slowed to a crawl and started to build back up if they actually do run 3 years behind (ie everything lackluster releases this year was designed during the first year of work from home)

[Noserenda]

They do have a lot of slack in the design process as i understand it, the real bottlenecks is mass production, so for example the nerf gun marines were apparently designed alongside the initial Primaris and shelved for being toss before getting another shot more recently. Similarly the initial Underworlds warbands were mothballed from a scheme to sell upgrade kits for infantry units in AoS.

My manager (maaaany years ago now) saw their big room of finished stuff not slated for release and apparently it had all kinds of cool (or not so cool!) stuff in it, Peachey made reference to a similar room, and i think James Hewitt too? So it seems to still exist.

[Orion]

 

Krieg: 7ish kits? Infantry (alt sculpts different from KT, like Kroot), Command, Heavy Weapons, Riders, 3-4 characters. Maybe engineers and a tank upgrade?

 

Doubt they're getting 3-4 characters or new infantry. Commissar, Marshal, Quartermaster, Death Rider Commissar, and a command squad? Seems like a stretch.
Otherwise sounds likely.
 

If we are getting HWT it makes no sense to not have DR. 

 

I'll be curious to how they handle tanks.
If they do upgrades specifically for the AM russ, that'll be real lame when Solar Aux Russes look so much better, and fit so much better.

I think this is the main problem sprue.

 

[Noserenda]

If its going to be a similar release to Cadians id expect something like Heavy weapons, Character, Death riders, maybe a second character or an upgrade set? The existing set aaaalmost makes a command squad, if they were being efficient id love to see something like a banner pole on the character sprue so you can make a command squad for every one you buy. An upgrade sprue lets you change up the crews of field guns or tank commanders, or include the command squad bits. Famously its not like the Death korps have much head variety after all...

You could do Engineers or grenadiers as another kill team release, they do love their guard elite equiv kill teams lol