(Awaiting) GW Half-Yearly Financial Report, Space Marine II launch, pricing update flags

[N1SB]

Games Workshop will release their half-year financial report probably this week.  These are interesting windows between June to November, which is GW's launch period for new editions, etc.  It's an Age of Sigmar year, but the more noteworthy story will probably be Space Marine II.

 

It's also a preview for any potential pricing updates coming in the next few months.  There's a checklist of things I'm already curious about:

 

• Space Marine II sold 5 million copies by the end of Nov...so how much licensing does GW get per copy sold, huh?
• Licensing revenue is nice and all, but how many video game players did GW convert (at least sell) to tabletop players?
• If "Gross Profit" divided by "Revenue" is LESS than 70%, there will definitely be a pricing update*

 

* even if it's like 69.9%...GW might still do a pricing update, I dunno.  They USED to let it slide, not anymore.

 

I'll be reading it, but if I don't post right away, it'll be because I'm thinking about it.  Or playing Marvel Rivals I mean, Space Marine II.

 

(Other news:  Bandai, another GW licensing partner, is releasing their own Gundam tabletop game.  Could be competitor, could sell them paints.)

Edited Monday at 03:22 PM by N1SB

[ZeroWolf]

Im still expecting a price rise either way because it seems to be a yearly thing...especially with other price rises incoming.

 

(Regarding Gundam Assemble, will be interesting to see how it pans out and if Bandai support it. I've seen mixed reactions online regarding it as people seemed to just want 1/144 scale rule set, so GW may not lose any sleep over it.)

[darkhorse0607]

2 hours ago, ZeroWolf said:

Im still expecting a price rise either way because it seems to be a yearly thing...especially with other price rises incoming.

 

 

This is what worries me. Overall against any price rise right now, but the double price rise that could happen is a bit concerning

 

I wonder if the plan for them will be included in the report or not. I would assume not but we will see, I know other industries are already forecasting internally

[Uprising]

2 hours ago, ZeroWolf said:

Im still expecting a price rise either way because it seems to be a yearly thing...especially with other price rises incoming.

Price rise will be eternal until the customer base (sales) are effected by it.  By that point, I believe GW will be more of a brand company (think Disney) mainly, then a miniature company when that issue arises.  Let see what happens in 2025.  

[The Praetorian of Inwit]

The is no way GW will not be doing a price rise. Electricity costs are going up but more than that Labours budget will hit all businesses hard. I wouldn't be surprised if the price rise this year is bigger than last year. 

[Joe]

https://assets.ctfassets.net/ost7hseic9hc/1alE9DriNd0GJq1SYKn3ZY/e14d3ff03635ea919c569f075b25c60a/2024-25_half_year_report_final.pdf

Report is up. Not seeing any indication of price rises at a glance.

[N1SB]

Thanks for the heads up, Brother Joe.  You're right that GW doesn't say it in words, but sadly they insert it in the numbers:

 

• (Core) Gross Profit: £181.9 million
• (Core) Revenue: £269.4 million
• Gross Profit Margin = 181.9 ÷ 269.4 = 67.5%, lower than their goal of 70%

 

That 2.5% difference imho is enough for GW to decide to do a pricing update.  People within GW HAVE tried hard to find savings to keep prices low where they are, but if you remember the pricing update last year, they were only off by a fraction of a percent.

 

I agree with you guys it's driven by the energy cost increases in the UK.  It's worse there than almost anywhere.

 

HOWEVER, Brother Joe could be right, IF someone at GW does some janky maths...he could tack on the surge in licensing revenue from Space Marine II to the profit.  As nice as that is for us Hobbyists, that would be risky and outright irresponsible, though.

 

(Remember, it's not like they'll release Space Marine III next year to keep that Licensing spike there.)

 

As always, I reserve the right to change my mind and believe I'm actually wrong on this.  I'm mulling over the rest of the report now.

Edited 20 hours ago by N1SB

[Joe]

(Downside to being at work is it's literal glances in during free moments. )

I think it's within reason that they could avoid a price rise this year by doing the aforementioned janky math - as they've mentioned wanting to stop them where possible for a while now, however I'm not certain it'd play out that way. If the US tariffs go ahead they'll need to put prices regardless.

[INKS]

70% seems very high and almost not obtainable. there will be a price increase

[Emperor Ming]

Wouldn't it be great if they went for 60/65 instead

[Marshal Rohr]

Looks like Age of Sigmar failed to generate a modicum of excitement again 

[skylerboodie]

21 minutes ago, Marshal Rohr said:

Looks like Age of Sigmar failed to generate a modicum of excitement again 

 

Yeah the report notes -

 

"We had a successful launch of the new edition of Age of Sigmar and the launch of the new edition of Warhammer 40,000: Kill Team continued our momentum"

 

but also -

 

"We are still not meeting our stock availability KPIs and not all of our new product releases sold to our planned levels, so our write downs of the stock in our warehouses were c. £3.6 million higher than the same period last year. This is all well within our control so we will continue to fine tune the details to find some improvements." (emphasis added)

 

Not sure if there were any other releases that particularly undersold.

[ZeroWolf]

1 hour ago, Emperor Ming said:

Wouldn't it be great if they went for 60/65 instead

Would be but it seems they choose that number so they could have cash in hand to pay for new developments/expenses instead of relying on debt like other businesses. 65% should be more attainable though without too much knock on effect.

 

24 minutes ago, Marshal Rohr said:

Looks like Age of Sigmar failed to generate a modicum of excitement again 

Deserves better to be fair

[Emperor Ming]

I wonder how well old world is doing

[darkhorse0607]

49 minutes ago, Marshal Rohr said:

Looks like Age of Sigmar failed to generate a modicum of excitement again 

 

I wonder if this will cause them to take a step back internally (doubt it). Twice now, they have tried the same approach when launching a new AoS edition (basically, non-stop AoS for months leading up to it) only for it to not meet expectations.

 

I am interested to see how this changes as the hype around SM2 dies down. The game isn't losing support from the dev, but a new operation or skin pack isn't going to drive it back up to the levels of engagement we saw close to launch, especially as we move forward into Feb/March where you have all the other major releases. Then you have the fact that Secret Level was also launched in the same window, which is now gone and they're relying on WH+ again for media.

 

It makes me wonder if that's actually the reason why they stacked the 40k releases in the first part of this year, to supplement the lack of licensing income so it doesn't make the next quarter look like a massive crash

Edited 19 hours ago by darkhorse0607

[Mr Farson]

1 hour ago, skylerboodie said:

 

Yeah the report notes -

 

"We had a successful launch of the new edition of Age of Sigmar and the launch of the new edition of Warhammer 40,000: Kill Team continued our momentum"

 

but also -

 

"We are still not meeting our stock availability KPIs and not all of our new product releases sold to our planned levels, so our write downs of the stock in our warehouses were c. £3.6 million higher than the same period last year. This is all well within our control so we will continue to fine tune the details to find some improvements." (emphasis added)

 

Not sure if there were any other releases that particularly undersold.

 

The old world doesn't sell great outside its initial pre order. The sales drop off after release is huge and I know a few retailers have dropped stock to 1-2 boxes at best as they're setting on 30+ boxes of dead stock per faction

[skylerboodie]

I often see online retailers with loads of Old World stock for boxes of the individual kits that came in the larger Battalion boxes, and never understand why they order so many of the individual release ones that are clearly going to have less demand for, due to having already been obtained in the bigger boxes and at better discounts therein.

[Valkyrion]

I don't want to derail the topic with non-forum posts, but is AoS popular? Obviously it's not as popular as 40k, but is it as popular as Heresy or the skirmish games, or even other manufacturers games? In a league table of table top wargames, does AoS come above the Star Wars games, for instance? 

 

[Mr Farson]

2 minutes ago, skylerboodie said:

I often see online retailers with loads of Old World stock for boxes of the individual kits that came in the larger Battalion boxes, and never understand why they order so many of the individual release ones that are clearly going to have less demand for, due to having already been obtained in the bigger boxes and at better discounts therein.

 

I don't know if it's still the case but certain product wouldn't be available to independents unless you bought in other stuff. Unless you were ordering x amount of z you wouldn't be able to order new launch box y for example.

 

I know at a place a friend work they were told they had to stock certain items that GW continued mainline which would end up being two or three particular kits per faction in quite large quantities 

[ZeroWolf]

10 minutes ago, Valkyrion said:

I don't want to derail the topic with non-forum posts, but is AoS popular? Obviously it's not as popular as 40k, but is it as popular as Heresy or the skirmish games, or even other manufacturers games? In a league table of table top wargames, does AoS come above the Star Wars games, for instance? 

 

Best you're going to get there is anecdotal evidence I'm afraid as GW don't do individual sales figures per system.

[lhg033]

I am looking forward to the report on the report

 

I do fully understand the justifications for any price rises based on their business model. I am wondering if and when they are going to hit the tipping point of cost vs what people will actually pay for. Personally I think I am there. Nearly every purchase I have made in the last few years has been weighed up on this for me. Nothing is an impulse buy from GW any more. The partworks magazines have been the closest I have been to this and this year even they are more planned now

 

[TheArtilleryman]

5 hours ago, Joe said:

https://assets.ctfassets.net/ost7hseic9hc/1alE9DriNd0GJq1SYKn3ZY/e14d3ff03635ea919c569f075b25c60a/2024-25_half_year_report_final.pdf

Report is up. Not seeing any indication of price rises at a glance.

My thought on this is they’ve only just done one. Combat Patrols went up from £90 to £100 last year, for example. I don’t think they normally do one every year - normally you can rely on the prices for a bit.

Edited 17 hours ago by TheArtilleryman

[TheArtilleryman]

2 hours ago, skylerboodie said:

 

Yeah the report notes -

 

"We had a successful launch of the new edition of Age of Sigmar and the launch of the new edition of Warhammer 40,000: Kill Team continued our momentum"

 

but also -

 

"We are still not meeting our stock availability KPIs and not all of our new product releases sold to our planned levels, so our write downs of the stock in our warehouses were c. £3.6 million higher than the same period last year. This is all well within our control so we will continue to fine tune the details to find some improvements." (emphasis added)

 

Not sure if there were any other releases that particularly undersold.

“Stock availability KPIs” that’s the key. If they had been able to need demand they might have made more profit. If this new factory gets sorted they can sell more stuff and make more profit.

[Karhedron]

15 minutes ago, lhg033 said:

I do fully understand the justifications for any price rises based on their business model. I am wondering if and when they are going to hit the tipping point of cost vs what people will actually pay for.

 

This is always a tricky thing. GW rely on a certain number of new hobbyists joining each year and accept a certain level of attrition. Some of this will be people growing out of the hobby, some due to changing life circumstances and some will be put off by price rises. As long as there is a sufficient pipeline of newcomers, GW has not seemed to worry about losing veterans. Their steady increase in revenue suggests that they are right.

[darkhorse0607]

1 hour ago, TheArtilleryman said:

My thought on this is they’ve only just done one. Combat Patrols went up from £90 to £100 last year, for example. I don’t think they normally do one every year - normally you can rely on the prices for a bit.

 

At the same time, that's only one of the price rises. You also have the smaller stuff throughout the year, like the increased cost of Kill Team boxes because they repackaged/put some cardboard in there and others