You've seen the news I'm sure. How bad will this jack up what is already an excessively marked up hobby?

Thank you all for asking. I'll keep this as short & (bitter)sweet as I can. As always, non-political. Summary - yeah...I agree it'll be 10% tax just passed on to Hobbyists in the US, but it'll also be all the knock-on effects. +++ Why 10% tariff across the world? +++ Why even target UK exports like Warhammer? What has Warhammer ever done except bring both joy (& misery every price hike)? It's because if one country was to raise tariffs at another country...you can always circumvent by going thru a 3rd. For example, as you know I'm like a dodgy Hong Kong hustler. Former British colony. If it was only China getting hit by a tariff, I'd help a Chinese company set up some sort of dummy trading company in a Commonwealth nation to appear British, go around those rules, and I'd have a small take. Happens all the time. This would make such a loophole even costlier, like it wouldn't even be worth me doing it anymore (if I had wanted to, I admit nothing). So it's NOT targeted at Warhammer, nor even the UK. It's just this general baseline thing to make a tariff policy work. In Warhammer terms, it's if we had to use a Force Organisation Chart, there'd be, some HQ + Troops Tax, otherwise there's no point. So even if we get the US and UK governments negotiating...this 10% that affects them will stay, because it's NOT about the UK at all. What it's going to mean in practice is that it'll be very, extra hard to get this particular price hike lifted. There MIGHT be one solution... +++ There ARE "carve-outs" for select things +++ In situations like this, there ARE exemptions on a case-by-case basis...and you want to get your name on that list. It's going to take someone close to the policy makers with, how do I put this, a DOG in the fight who just so happens to really like games and tabletop and stuff to say, "Um, I actually play this game from a British company called WARHAMMER and so do my 14 kids, so could you please do a carve out for Games Workshop?" Alternatively, it'll be a very influential American company who sits squarely behind policy makers with, y'know, AMAZONIAN strength to lobby against the policy like, "You keep the tariffs...unless the sales go through US. We get an exception, because we'll help you enforce the policy via other means we have at our disposal." (You will see stuff like a Taiwanese chipmaker getting an exemption for their chips IF it's inside a US-made PC, etc.) +++ How will GW react? +++ It's not so much how it will affect GW (unless you're one of our Frateri GW shareholders, you care and rightly so). It's more about how GW, being a publicly listed company responsible to shareholders, react? That affects us all. You know how I used to harp on about maybe GW's Factory 4 could be built in the US? It would actually only help with trying to get on that list of carve-outs exempt from tariffs. Because even in a scenario where GW did build a factory in the U.S., I had imagined GW'd only make the most common model kits there, like the starter sets. Everything else made in the UK would technically be subject to tariffs, UNLESS they use another loophole and did something like having the sprues produced in Nottingham, shipped over to the U.S., and packaged in the U.S., just put in the cardboard boxes there. This used to happen in Hong Kong, things were made in China, shipped to Hong Kong then we'd package them to ship out, now it's Made In Hong Kong. But my main argument was lower energy costs. (The automotive industry is like this. Components made worldwide, final assembly in the U.S., now Made in the U.S.A.) I'm really gaming out how GW is reacting. Here's what comes to mind. +++ Will GW delay or even rethink its pricing update? +++ I anticipated GW was going to do a pricing update like around May. This has to give them pause, at least. North America, which of course includes the U.S., has long been its fastest growing region, to the point that... North America, probably the U.S. in particular, is actually GW's single biggest market now. GW DOES care. (I'll look up how much North America makes up GW's overall business, like compared to its home in the UK, later.) On the other hand, this gives GW a built-in excuse. GW can blame their performance on tariffs in their biggest market. But they're having trouble keeping supply up demand anyway. [TEMPORARILY NOT AVAILABLE] is synonymous with almost every search I do on their website nowadays, like when I'm just brainstorming new projects. Again, it's the same 3 factories producing while GW's revenue is 5 times what it was 10 years ago. However, GW IS looking ahead, that's why they talk about Factory 4 (as well they should imho). GW might say, let's not burn this bridge before we even cross it. Maybe they'll hold off on a price hike until things shake out a bit, or do some weird thing where price increases for the rest of the world EXCEPT for the U.S. There are unsung heroes who will push back on GW with this. They'll be the central figures in this saga: the U.S.-based FLGSes. +++ How will U.S. FLGSes react? +++ Your Friendly Local Gaming Stores in the U.S. will be the ones central to this fight. We can game things out by how they react. (Reminder: GW uses their own jargon for FLGSes, they're their "Trade" channel.) I've been listening to FLGSes, whom I greatly respect. They're unhappy with their GW representatives NOT because the Hobby sucks, in fact the Hobby's selling well, TOO well, the FLGSes are mad at GW because they can't stock what they want, driving their customers to online retailers. You're going to have U.S. Hobbyists drive to Canada to buy minis, throw away the cardboard boxes so it's just the sprues so it's not like a whole product, bring them back home. They're going to organise which friend will be the one to drive north after every balance update for a new batch of orders. (I used to live in New Jersey. We'd drive to Toronto because a lot of our Hong Kong friends were there. Then in Wisconsin when I was in uni. We'd drive just north of the border to buy alcohol then bring it back. I now realise that my so-called "friends" took me because I was going to be the fall guy.) FLGSes will have to look for alternatives. Within the miniatures space, it'll be Atomic Mass Games, who make Marvel Crisis Protocol (my friend Timperial Guard used to play this before Legiones Imperialis brought him home) and now Star Wars Legions (I know there's a fiddly thing with that, I'm not getting into it). (Modiphius, which makes the Fallout miniatures games is also a U.K. company, actually i.e. same boat.) Beyond miniatures, in the U.S. tabletop space, there's also Dungeons & Dragons, which traditionally did around £100 million/year. To compare, GW was around that 10 years ago, now it's £500 million/year. It's still dwarfed by D&D's younger sibling, Magic the Gathering, which is £1 BILLION/year. FLGSes can flock to Wizards of the Coast, owners of both D&D and MtG. I know what's happening with D&D, I won't talk about it here. I'll put it back into Warhammer terms. You know how we react to a balance update? Like GW will always increase the unit I really like, like my C'tans. And even though Necrons have been top tier throughout 10th ed, I completely overreact, like a small points increase to C'tan makes me give up and burn my army. This sort of thing happens irl. In supply chains, it's called a Bullwhip Effect, a tiny flick leads to a huge slash down the line. +++ Conclusions +++ GW is going to take a time-out to a.) re-evaluate things, b.) SHOW they're re-evaluating things and c.) talk to people like FLGSes. It'll be "in light of recent events" and/or "due to circumstances out of our control" by their next annual report, year ends in May, report in July. (They may or may not issue a statement to investors beforehand. They probably won't, the CEO isn't one of those headline seekers.) They're going to say they're either delaying their "pricing update" or do some weird carve out for the U.S. Don't turn your envy against our U.S. Frateri, they'll be hit with 10%, while we are usually hit like around 5%, they'll still be worse off, and they might be helping us all hold off on a pricing update altogether. They've already committed to Factory 4. They might say they're evaluating Factory 5, 6 or 7 in the U.S., something like that. There has been a case for that in lieu of energy prices in the UK, particularly in the case of Nottingham, which I found out recently. So it's not just some political lobbying thing tbh. They'll have to have some sort of special thing dealing with FLGSes (a.k.a. "Trade"), as well they should. In conclusion, having played this out as a result of writing this post, there will be a calm before the storm. +++ Now, a practical, personal note +++ Remember, the Hobby is only part of your life. The most important part, sure! But everything else, things you take for granted, things you never really think of, will go up way more than Warhammer. As a barometer, just keep an eye out for even gas prices, which should NOT be affected much, but will be. Canary in the coal mine. I did not work in Equities (I was Mergers & Acquisitions, yes, I know I'm a total bastard), so even now I was trained never to comment on buying or selling stocks. If you hold GW stock, remember you're STILL getting good dividends. But if you ever thought of being a GW part-owner, a GW shareholder, wait and see. I hold no GW stock, have no financial relationship with GW aside from being a Warhammer player. But things drop, then drop again, then rebound. Edit - I just thought of something, it's a zero-cost thing you can do: U.S. Frateri, maybe ask your American FLGS, "How can we support you?" You probably have to do NOTHING extra. You're just asking, not committing to anything, if they give reply. They'll just think, "Huh, Warhammer CUSTOMERS have always supported us." They might ask their GW reps, how are they supporting their customers in this time. My closest Warhammer/D&D friends and I kept a bar open by just going there once a week during the pandemic era. It wasn't simply that we drank like a fish (even though we did). It's that by being regulars at that time, we gave the bar's manager an excuse to tell his boss to keep it open. For a FLGS owner, it's not just a tax or more expensive minis, it's their business, it's livelihood. Just 1 question, "Are you okay?"